[Coronita]

[quote=phaster][quote=flu]yawn[/quote]

Asleep at the wheel?

10 trillion in bonds w/ a negative interest rate, throw in another 10 trillion yielding less than one percent and IMHO its a “bubble” situation that one should be aware of and prepared for

http://www.wsj.com/articles/negative-yielding-debt-tops-10-trillion-1464915656

the knock on effects are a dramatic rise in asset prices (like commercial real estate) because some types of collateral (like commercial real estate) is no longer constrained by any historic measure from my look at the data in various markets (around the world!)

[quote=loopnet.com]

Current San Diego market trends data indicates an increase of +8.6% in the median asking price per unit for Multifamily properties

http://www.loopnet.com/San-Diego_California_Market-Trends
[/quote]

so, in order to pay for higher priced rentals (i.e. cause and effect)

[quote=cbs8.com]
San Diego rent is through the roof

SAN DIEGO (CBS 8) – San Diego may be a beautiful place to live, but it has become more and more expensive for renters. San Diego rent has increased three-percent in the past year.

An increase in demand has rent skyrocketing. More and more people are moving into San Diego and are are willing to pay top dollar to live in America’s finest city.

Jamie Pullman, a broker with Downtown Condo Guys, sees brand new properties come online before many in the public do. He said he’s not stunned that rent continues to climb in San Diego.

A study by Apartment List shows San Diego placed fourth for both most expensive rents and highest rent growth in California for the month of June. Rent grew three-percent in San Diego, but it’s not the only pace in the state of California to see rent increases.

Long Beach has also seen rent go up. However, in places like Santa Ana, rent has gone down.

In San Diego it costs a median price of $1,510 for a one-bedroom and $2,020 for a two-bedroom. In San Francisco, renters are paying nearly $5,000 a month for a two-bedroom.

In Pacific Beach, on average a studio apartment will go for about $1,600.

The highest vacancy rates are in East County and South County.

Despite the rent hike, there are new inventory and places coming online everyday – which forces some rental properties to become more competitive and bringing down rates.

According to the San Diego County Apartment Association, the vacancy rate in residential units across the county is only four-and-half percent.

http://www.cbs8.com/story/32359539/san-diego-rent-is-through-the-roof
[/quote]

looking at global markets, we see:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/05/bank-of-england-cuts-banks-capital-requirements-as-brexit-risks-crystallize.html

http://www.npr.org/2016/07/07/485058646/investors-pull-funds-from-british-investment-firms-after-brexit-vote

http://www.npr.org/2016/07/07/485058709/with-brits-leaving-the-eu-greeks-worry-about-europe-s-future

so given all the horse $hit, my interpretation of the data is,… there exits another bubble (of sorts which is not yet recognized by 99.99% of the population) so best not to be asleep at the wheel![/quote]

I don’t get the point of your paranoia. If things were to collapse, its doesn’t happen all the sudden overnight. If you are really that paranoid about things cratering then leave your money in a 1%CD+, and wake me up 8 years from now to let me know how that worked out for you. My 16+ years in a well diversified portfolio seems to worked alright…Afterall, I doubt I would have been able to live free and clear on a primary and almost all rentals had I left everything in a 1%CD. Just saying…

Ubber bears are just a funny a perma bulls. The later loses money by staying in the markets too long or entering too high. The former loses money by convincing oneself over paranoia and the sky is falling mentality to never to enter, just like housing starting in 2009.

[Coronita]

.

[Coronita]

Lol just asked HLS about this too

[Coronita]

Looks like platinum is starting to move up. $1086 now

[Coronita]

But my question is the following. If Chula Vista is really a dump with schools that suck, then wouldn’t the level of suckiness being increasingly worse now than before, if we believe that the illegal/border crossers have also exploded more recently?

It seems like looking at the API scores of the past, it’s been consistently the same throughout time, irrespective of the change in the number of illegals and border crosses that apparently some have claimed to have significantly increased.

So is there really serious deterioration of the schools in Chula Vista that would even more drastically affect home prices because of increased illegal or boarder crossers?

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]Translation for FLU: Even if you successfully closed the loopholes which allowed border crossers, South Bay public schools would still suck.[/quote]

So, let me understand….

1. Illegals and border crossing kids are a problem for south bay areas like Chula Vista…Because they are taking away resources from public schools.
2. Because of illegals and border corssing kids, schools in the south bay areas like Chula Vista suck, and because schools in the south bay suck, so do property values in the south bay like Chula Vista.
3. But then there’s an argument that there are really good top notch schools in Chula Vista.
4. But then if there are really good schools doing well in Chula Vista, then apparently border crossing kids and illegals aren’t really affecting the education quality of schools in south bay areas like Chula Vista.

So which is it?

[Coronita]

So is the lesson to learn from the last couple of threads :

1. Chula Vista is a dump and a terrible place to invest wrto real estate.
2. Since illegals and border kids are a significant problem there, unlike other areas, it has, and will for a long time into the future, create a significant negative impact to home prices there.
3. No one in their right mind should live there, or if they do, should definitely not send their kids to public schools there.

?

[Coronita]

[quote=no_such_reality]That’s the analysis paralysis.

Will the 3.25% Brexit induced mortgage last for seven months? Will it be longer? Or is it going to disappear in a month when the world realizes even with Brexit, it’s pretty much business as usual around the world?

It’s hard saying no to the lower rate, but the reality is the payback on the lower payment versus the funds to get it, is a little north of a decade.

Hence, if I can do a 3.5% for near zero out pocket. Or take a 3.625% for a net credit to my impounds.

Or maybe go conforming to $417K, back the rate up to 3.375% or even 3.5% and apply the credit to the balance to reduce the amount I need to bring to the table. How much credit will I get on a $417k at 3.5%? 1.5% about $7000 ( is the credit running about 1 pt per 1/8th?) Could I push it to 3.625% and get the banks to kick in half or more of the amount I need to get myself below $417K? Then if rates stay low for six months, I could refi lower and suck credits out.

If rates stay at this level for a year, could I walk myself below the $417K and essentially have the banks pay for the principal reduction by taking a higher interest rate for a year ( a grand total of an extra $1000 in interest)

Of course, if interest rates rise, I’m stuck with a 30 year at a rate lower than I’ve got now, but maybe a half point higher than it could have been. A net $25 grand or so over the life of the loan if I don’t refinance again.[/quote]

I think you need to look at it this way. Anything is better than doing nothing. 🙂

So pick… flip a coin…

[Coronita]

[quote=no_such_reality]I’m sliding into analysis paralysis.

We’re about $20K above the $417K low conforming limit.

Checking the easy online sources shows about a 0.25% hit for being in the higher conforming zone. Is this carrying through or other places not doing that?

Refi-ing is a no brainer. Which refi is the question.

* Shave a 0.25% and keep the higher balance
* take a 1/8th point, use the credit to fund the impound and pay the extra towards principal and hope rates hold for six months and refi again
* kick in $20k and take the 0.5% off the rate

It may be time to be time to let a broker make some money.[/quote]

I’d take the 1/8 point hit if I were thinking that this wouldn’t be the last time I was refinancing..

Or, I’d borrow $20k from my 401k (the portion in a money market right now earning 0.1%), and use the $20k to shave your loan down to the conforming limit. Then, I’d pay myself back the $20k loan, at a rate of 4% (non tax deductible of course, less yearly maintenance fee)…which is still better than that 0.1% interest I’d earn keeping it in a money market.

[Coronita]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=joec]This maybe why certain people simply refuse to buy in certain housing areas in the south bay…schools have a larger population of this happening and I don’t know the percentages, but I certainly don’t see that many latino/foreign types in my hood simply due to the cost of the housing around here.

Economic segregation seems to be the thing keeping houses in “better” school districts from dropping as much in prices due to higher demand…

Just one less thing to worry about I guess, esp with constant funding issues with school.[/quote]joec, the South Bay area has some very nice (and expensive) neighborhoods! In addition, most homeowners in Otay Ranch (91915), built 2001 thru 2006 (but primarily 2003 and later) are each paying on TWO 40-yr CFDs totaling approx 1.6% of their assessed value just in Mello Roos alone (nearly ALL going to the local public school districts and CC)! This is in ADDITION to their ad valoream portion of their tax bill of 1% PLUS approximately .17 of their assessed value in voter approved bonds (mainly local public school and CC construction bonds) for a total of 2.77% to 2.78% of assessed value towards property tax outlay for each affected parcel every year! There are actually a LOT of truly “wealthy” families around here! And yes, many of their ancestors originally came here from MX. Those 2nd, 3rd and even 4th Generation South County residents of Hispanic origin (100%/50%/25%) with LEGAL status actually detest the situation with all these daily border crossing children being allowed to occupy seats in their children’s and grandchildren’s schools!

The west side of Chula Vista (91910/91911) is almost ALL situated less than two miles from SD Bay (excepting the communities of Sunbow, Deerpark and older surrounds immediately east of I-805). As is Nestor, Egger Highlands and communities in the Otay Mesa area south of CV (92154), all annexed to the City of SD between 1977 and 1979. In addition, portions of 91910 have 1/2 to 4 AC residential lots which can NEVER by upzoned and many corner lots in 91910 are typically 1/4 AC. These areas are still in the cooler “coastal zone” even though they are not directly on the ocean. SD Bay is only 1.5 miles wide between the NC/CV boat docks and the Silver Strand (Coronado). Living here is very hospitable and requires no A/C (except during a heat wave and we usually lose power at those times, anyway, due to our antiquated electrical grid and overhead lines still present in almost all areas). What I’m trying to say here is that SD South County is actually a great place to live! It’s just “convenient” for border-crossing kids to avail themselves of our (mostly excellent) schools!

We also have Bonita (91902) which is landlocked and now surrounded by newer communities with their own (CV) zip codes on its south and east sides whose residents now use Bonita’s streets daily to get to I-805/I-5. The “jewel of the South Bay,” Bonita (circa 1952 to 1986) is a hilly, semi-rural view community with only FOUR condo complexes and ONE PUD complex. Its SFR stock is zoned just 3 parcels to one AC, on average! 3/4 unincorporated (County of SD) and 1/4 incorporated into the City of CV, Bonita is situated just 3-5 miles from SD Bay and is actually in the semi-coastal zone. It’s a FABULOUS place to live, people! ESPecially for families who like to entertain! And the residents of Bonita (among the rest of their SD South County brethren) have hundreds of daily border crossing kids attending their kids’ and grandkids’ schools (ALL FIVE of their assigned K-12 schools)! Its a dirty shame and a travesty. Some of the houses in Bonita (as well as in a small subdivision in Eastlake (CV) are assessed at over $2M. Yet Bonita’s homeowners (if they have school-age kids) must DEAL with this collossal mess on a daily basis.

There would actually be NOTHING WRONG with SOUTH COUNTY’s location IF the adjacent Int’l border didn’t present so many problems for its residents. The fact that the border IS where it IS obviously deters many qualified buyers from considering the area to purchase in (even though most of it has GREAT weather and is extremely conveniently located)! And rightly so. The border isn’t properly managed and hasn’t been for decades. Our current problems with rampant northward daily int’l border-crossing students attending our public schools is partly Pres. Obama’s fault thru his “amnesty” provision he enacted for children crossing our southern border (both when accompanied by parents AS WELL AS being “unaccompanied”). And, as a nearly lifelong Dem, I voted for Obama TWICE, mind you. The Int’l border is nothing more than a SIEVE of northbound POOR and NEEDY people (incl children) whose parents will, by hook or crook, seek a better life for them, and, in doing so, their children have successfully availed themselves of a US K-12 public education at OUR expense for decades> (This phenomenon much more pronounced in recent years.) And it will NEVER stop until the affected school districts and their schools are mandated to refuse “residency by affidavit” unless it is court-ordered and demand to see a state-issued Driver License or ID card for each and every so-called “parent or guardian” who tries to prove residency for a prospective student. Then, the district must record that DL or State ID NUMBER and make every effort to determine if that (bona-fide school district resident) who “proved residency” for a prospective student whilst residing out of the district/country is actually their “parent.” The County HHSA Depts can often be used for this exercise. And the border personnel needs to DEMAND student visas from border-crossing students into the US in the mornings. The only way public school systems are going to sponsor such visas is IF the student’s family pays tuition to the district. This will cut down on 99.9% of daily border-crossing students who have for decades “freeloaded” off resident taxpayer’s backs.

Any procedure less than this is just another attempt to perpetuate the non-resident school attendance fraud in South SD County which has been going on for decades … same old, same old. Yes, it is nothing more than “residency fraud,” plain and simple.[/quote]

Dang I missed this post earlier…Lol, like I said, joec. I knew this post was coming next. lol.

[Coronita]

It appears silver crossed $20/ounce. Dangit… Sold my SLV and NUGT way too early… I can never seem to catch the big whale.

[Coronita]

[quote=joec]This maybe why certain people simply refuse to buy in certain housing areas in the south bay…schools have a larger population of this happening and I don’t know the percentages, but I certainly don’t see that many latino/foreign types in my hood simply due to the cost of the housing around here.

Economic segregation seems to be the thing keeping houses in “better” school districts from dropping as much in prices due to higher demand…

Just one less thing to worry about I guess, esp with constant funding issues with school.[/quote]

Lol… now you did it. I’m waiting for the responses that will now defend Chula Vista and what a great city it is and how border kids aren’t affecting the school districts in it……self-contradicting earlier posts about how horrible this problem is in such areas…

I don’t know if migrants kids are or are not a real problem in public schools…But I’ll agree with you, that I haven’t seen an issue in my neighborhood’s school districts either, lol.

Must be that my hood is in a far flung area invested with tract homes that have too many walls and too many lizards… 🙂

Have a nice weekend!….

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=carlsbadworker][quote=moneymaker]Looks like I’m going to get .875% savings with a refi, hopefully it won’t be too painful.[/quote]

How can you guys all save that much, the rate hasn’t dropped that much yet.

http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/graph/

What’s the big Brexit rate drop that that I do not yet see?[/quote]
I think it depends on when you got your financed last time. I was only able to save 1/8%.[/quote]

The best rate I could get was 4.25% passing I can get 3.375%, my monthly might be the same if I cash out 140k I need to figure things out.

[Coronita]

I don’t know, I think there’s more room to run for all the precious metals….Raising rates are off the table. UK will be sort of a mess, people seem to be paranoid about the economy and there seems to be a pretty hefty demand for bullion right now.

[Coronita]

[quote=moneymaker]ETF- early termination fee?[/quote]

I wouldn’t he terminating the loan just paying it down a lot faster.. need to see what the payment difference would be

[Author]

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