[Coronita]

fat_lazy, you're correct jumbo loans aren't going to "vanish"..I don't think anyone is saying that, but demand is going to contract by probably 95+% to a trickle. This will virtually halt activity in the region, infact that is what is happening before our eyes right now.

 

I guess my vision is warped. Out of all the people I know, I can only think of 1 couple that might not qualify for a jumbo. But then again, most of the people I know have already bought and aren't really looking to buy again. 

[Coronita]

How many times do I have to remind people that there a negative savings rate in the US?? Posters here are an exception to this and generally have good financial management skills. That is not the norm right now. It is a mistake to extrapolate that characterisitc to population in general.

 

No kidding, americans are bad savers?  Really? 🙂

but how many people who are "serious" buyers don't have some financial plan or financially capable? Haven't we already eliminated all the normal 100% financing people from the prospective buyer list?

[Coronita]

How many times do I have to remind people that there a negative savings rate in the US?? Posters here are an exception to this and generally have good financial management skills. That is not the norm right now. It is a mistake to extrapolate that characterisitc to population in general.

 

No kidding, americans are bad savers?  Really? 🙂

but how many people who are "serious" buyers don't have some financial plan or financially capable? Haven't we already eliminated all the normal 100% financing people from the prospective buyer list?

[Coronita]

How many times do I have to remind people that there a negative savings rate in the US?? Posters here are an exception to this and generally have good financial management skills. That is not the norm right now. It is a mistake to extrapolate that characterisitc to population in general.

 

No kidding, americans are bad savers?  Really? 🙂

but how many people who are "serious" buyers don't have some financial plan or financially capable? Haven't we already eliminated all the normal 100% financing people from the prospective buyer list?

[Coronita]

And why are the down payments higher for larger amounts?

[Coronita]

And why are the down payments higher for larger amounts?

[Coronita]

And why are the down payments higher for larger amounts?

[Coronita]

I would add another line to Borat's list: 4. How many people satisfying 1,2,3 do not Already own a home. In this era of very high home ownership rate, it will be rare to find someone unencumbered by present ownership And having a lot of cash in a bank account. May be a few Piggingtonians; but who else?

 

And do you think those people will sell if they really are 1,2,3, and add to the supply that's in the market, even if prices come down? After all, it's a primary resident.

The only exceptions i see are job transfer into or out of an area.

[Coronita]

I would add another line to Borat's list: 4. How many people satisfying 1,2,3 do not Already own a home. In this era of very high home ownership rate, it will be rare to find someone unencumbered by present ownership And having a lot of cash in a bank account. May be a few Piggingtonians; but who else?

 

And do you think those people will sell if they really are 1,2,3, and add to the supply that's in the market, even if prices come down? After all, it's a primary resident.

The only exceptions i see are job transfer into or out of an area.

[Coronita]

I would add another line to Borat's list: 4. How many people satisfying 1,2,3 do not Already own a home. In this era of very high home ownership rate, it will be rare to find someone unencumbered by present ownership And having a lot of cash in a bank account. May be a few Piggingtonians; but who else?

 

And do you think those people will sell if they really are 1,2,3, and add to the supply that's in the market, even if prices come down? After all, it's a primary resident.

The only exceptions i see are job transfer into or out of an area.

[Coronita]

Every poster has made a valid point but they are all missing the same thing that caused me to post yesterday. The average Joe is not a Dr!!!! Affordability for J6P is the issue that got us here. If J6P only has a median HHI of Sub 70K where do you think they are going to come up with the downpayment on a 400K house???!!!??? Where??!! A lot of the posters here are extremely myopic about this issue and need to open their freaking eyes.

 

Uh, good financial planning, savings, and spending habits? How hard is it really to save $100k for a couple? Shouldn't take longer than 8 years, 4 if you're really disciplined. Don't know. Anyone else care to chime in.

 

[Coronita]

Every poster has made a valid point but they are all missing the same thing that caused me to post yesterday. The average Joe is not a Dr!!!! Affordability for J6P is the issue that got us here. If J6P only has a median HHI of Sub 70K where do you think they are going to come up with the downpayment on a 400K house???!!!??? Where??!! A lot of the posters here are extremely myopic about this issue and need to open their freaking eyes.

 

Uh, good financial planning, savings, and spending habits? How hard is it really to save $100k for a couple? Shouldn't take longer than 8 years, 4 if you're really disciplined. Don't know. Anyone else care to chime in.

 

[Coronita]

Every poster has made a valid point but they are all missing the same thing that caused me to post yesterday. The average Joe is not a Dr!!!! Affordability for J6P is the issue that got us here. If J6P only has a median HHI of Sub 70K where do you think they are going to come up with the downpayment on a 400K house???!!!??? Where??!! A lot of the posters here are extremely myopic about this issue and need to open their freaking eyes.

 

Uh, good financial planning, savings, and spending habits? How hard is it really to save $100k for a couple? Shouldn't take longer than 8 years, 4 if you're really disciplined. Don't know. Anyone else care to chime in.

 

[Coronita]

Let's work this out. First of all, you're going to have a hard time getting a non-conforming loan from here on out. That sets a maximum loan amount of $417K. Let's say your dream 4S ranch house costs $600K. That means you'll need to pony up $183K for a down payment. Okay, let's run some numbers:

 

Ok… I'm probably going to be the first to say this that's going against the grain. I keep seeing a lot of folks post something like "it's going to be hard to get a jumbo loan. Jumbo loans are going to vanish. etc.etc.etc." Pardon the this viewpoint, but aren't we just drinking the "doom and gloom" kool-aid that also portrayed in the media too much???

Yes, secondary markets are going to contract, but do we really expect that well doc'ed, good income, with sufficient down are really going to have "problems" finding financing beyond paying higher interest rates from a historic low? I don't think it's a question of finding financing. It a question of how much interest can the buyer afford.

Borat, I’m failing to see the math your posting here. You’re quoting rates from a jumbo, but you’re running the downpayment based on what it would take to do a conforming.
Don’t think conformings are at 7.5% Plus, there are other variables not being considered. That 186k earning 5% is also subject to income tax, among many others. Plus where are the costs for rent. From a purchase perspective, you’re missing property tax, insurance, mello-ruse, etc.

[Coronita]

Let's work this out. First of all, you're going to have a hard time getting a non-conforming loan from here on out. That sets a maximum loan amount of $417K. Let's say your dream 4S ranch house costs $600K. That means you'll need to pony up $183K for a down payment. Okay, let's run some numbers:

 

Ok… I'm probably going to be the first to say this that's going against the grain. I keep seeing a lot of folks post something like "it's going to be hard to get a jumbo loan. Jumbo loans are going to vanish. etc.etc.etc." Pardon the this viewpoint, but aren't we just drinking the "doom and gloom" kool-aid that also portrayed in the media too much???

Yes, secondary markets are going to contract, but do we really expect that well doc'ed, good income, with sufficient down are really going to have "problems" finding financing beyond paying higher interest rates from a historic low? I don't think it's a question of finding financing. It a question of how much interest can the buyer afford.

Borat, I’m failing to see the math your posting here. You’re quoting rates from a jumbo, but you’re running the downpayment based on what it would take to do a conforming.
Don’t think conformings are at 7.5% Plus, there are other variables not being considered. That 186k earning 5% is also subject to income tax, among many others. Plus where are the costs for rent. From a purchase perspective, you’re missing property tax, insurance, mello-ruse, etc.

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