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CoronitaParticipantI’ve experienced more racism and discrimination in workforce from far left leaning liberals when I was younger than right leaning conservatives. Come to think of it.mmthe times I moved up considerably quickly up the ranks…were all due to VPs who were more conservative and valued my contributions based on merit versus all the other liberal leaning VPs that did promotions based on quotas and demographics. just saying…
CoronitaParticipant.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]
My plan for a recession? Sell my primary, put everything into investment property. One shot deal, survive or perish.[/quote]
Also, I had to ask about this one too.
If financial survival is what you are concerned about, why would you want to take on considerable risk in this scenario to gamble again about being correct and sell your primary home to buy rentals? I mean if you wait until a recession to sell your primary home, aren’t you essentially selling when the home prices are depressed? And hence you you really won’t get that much money back and increase your purchasing power, even though the investment properties are also cheaper. Also, what if your timing is just not correct…you sell your primary home and buy investment properties thinking the markets finished tanking, and then after you bought investment properties , the housing market fell furthermmm..and you end up with underperforming rental properties and also now you have no home to live in that is free and clear? That seems like gambling to me too, not just simply surviving, no?
How is this less risky than just regularly making small tiny drip investments over 20-30 years where each tiny contribution is barely some fancy meals in some nice restaurants?
This is the part why I’m confused. Because earlier you mentioned you’re looking to financially survive. Ok, I get that. But if that’s really what you’re only looking to do, you would be doing the things that minimize financial risk.
But at the same time, everything else you mention about your financial strategy is considerable high risk. You’re counting on your prediction to be accurate, you’re ignoring the golden rule that “markets can stay irrational longer you can stay solvent”, and you’re setting yourself up for a 1 hit/ 1 wonder event that exposes you to two considerable financial risks
1. Waiting for that one hit/one correct market time, you’re losing a lot of opportunity cost waiting
2. Even if you wait long enough for a correction and you enter the market during that correction, but the markets correct even further after you enter, then you have real market losses too on top of the opportunity cost you already lost in #1 by waiting
It just seems like this financial strategy is highly speculative and risky (IE gambling) and the antithesis of simply financially surviving.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]Over 25 years, sure. Over 10 years, who’s to say?[/quote]
Yes, but then your are trying to pick exactly when the next correction is the start of a longer period down turn.
What information do you possess that allows you to accurately predict that?
I’m truely curious how you plan on spotting the “big one” versus all the other corrections that ended up being not the big one. Was the 600pt correction enough for you to identify it as the start of the big one? Just a few days ago, you said the 600pt correction was the start. But obviously it wasn’t.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]It’s always different this time … until it’s not.[/quote]
Interesting. But the one consistent thing about the major indexes has been a slow and steady upward trend over tome, no?
Aren’t you contradicting yourself by saying the markets will from a point forward tank indefinitely?
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]History is with me … it’s more likely the business cycle is still cyclical than not.[/quote]
When the Dow fell 600 points did you consider that to be the big one and move money in, or were you expecting more of a drop?
Did history have these new monetary policies like considerations for QExxxxx or negative rates? And for the history, is the major indexes over the long term an upward trend since the beginning of the markets ?
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]A crash makes everything cheaper and thus makes my life slightly more comfortable. Plus, I can sell my primary and dump everything into investment property at that point. One shot deal, survive or perish.[/quote]
so basically your gambling on your financial future on a one hit deal after all. And what is your criteria for figuring out when a correction is “the big one” you’ve been waiting for.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]I’m not betting on anything … I’m just trying to survive at this point.[/quote]
if survival is all you need, you don’t need to wish for a crash to make you whole. Which is why I don’t understand you keep wanting a crash. You shouldn’t care either way.
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]Usually a serious crash/recession/correction is preceded by volatility. Guess what an 850 pt roller-coaster ride is? Also, the yield curve is inverting again… :D[/quote]
Interesting. Just curious. given your track record of forward looking predictions and being able to accurately time the markets, how many times have you been actually correct? It’s an honest self assessment. Wouldn’t you have just been better off with a slow drip strategy? I mean, normally someone who hits it big with a single hand /single guess win (like on blackjack) usually quits playing because they know the longer they play the greater the chances they will be wrong … But you keep trying to guess exactly when the market will tank so you capitalize on it. If this was a blackjack table, you’re still playing trying to get that winning hand…. So either (1) you haven’t got your large winning hand yet or (2) you have a pretty big gambling problem and you don’t know when to quit.
That’s why I’m curious why you always want to be correct in predicting a downturn, if you have already scored big on one. It just doesn’t seem to make logical sense.
Or a different analogy.. Youre thinking the next time for roulette it will be black, because it’s been red for a very long time. But how many times have you already betted on black in the past, but it still kept coming back red, and given the wrong outcomes in those times bets, how correct do you need to be on a one hand bet to make up for all the other bets that kept coming back red when you bet on black?
CoronitaParticipantI’m curious in how much of that 8% sell-off in the Chinese stock market went into today’s US stock market rally….
CoronitaParticipantS&P500 near all time high.
Dow within 150 pts of all time high.Dow up 850 pts in two sessions erasing the loses from the Coronavirus scare
What correction? Brian and Spdrun, where did you go? Did you go into hiding again now that the market direction isn’t fitting your narrative?
CoronitaParticipantHa ha ha Big time Tesla shorter got burned and exits.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-eisman-ends-bet-115134559.html
Just like all those AMD shorters that totally got roasted last year.
ha ha ha
CoronitaParticipantDow just 150 pts from all time high. Those extra buys of DIA when the markets briefly dipped 600pts a few days ago looking pretty green today. Win win .
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]Shouldn’t student loan forgiveness and cheaper hellth in$urance mean people have more money to pay rent to you?[/quote]
Nope. Plenty of people live within their means and can afford my rents just fine. Many of them worked / studied / learned and have a great job and first rent from me for a few years without worry about me jacking up the rent every year… and then have a family and then buy their own house after they get their permanent residence.
But I promise after I hit the $5million mark, I will use whatever excess income I have to buy more rental properties and rent them out at well below market price so someone not as lucky but with good jobs like teachers and other professionals starting out can have a safe place to live and a killer low price , allowing them to take the money they would otherwise spend on high rent and invest it into a passive DRIP index plan while to build their net worth. I know I can do it more efficiently than the government can by collecting more taxes and doing it. Just look at the joke of a retirement plan called Social Security.
As they say on an airplane. In case of emergency, out your mask on, then put on the mask of everyone else around you. Me first.
Personally, I like Pete. Don’t think he’ll win, but a pretty solid candidate.
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