Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantChris Johnston
Well I ran my system just now, and no sell signal in sight, the one variable that needed to change did not change much as I alluded to yesterday. It is a variable that takes some time to move all the way to the sell side from the buy side. It did move about 5% of what it has to move to generate a sell. We still could re-visit that low, but if we do, it is definitely a short term buy zone, for a hold of a couple of months or so. No celebrating here just due to an up day, we could still re-trace again. I am not predicting it, but it would not shock me. Overall, I still think we will move higher over the next couple of months.
By the next buying opportunity, I meant Octoberish, after a significant drop starting in late summer.
I generally trade stocks for 4 – 6 month holds, my short term trading is in futures, where my average hold period is only about 2 days.
ParticipantChris Johnston
jg, If Gross is beraish on bonds, that is a buy signal nowadays, he was the most bullish he had been in a few years right at the high. He was calling this the last bull market in bonds. I also remember a time within the last year that he was bullish, and spoke out, and the bond market had 6 consecutive down closes beginning the very next day. It was clearly a fund that was fading him. Far be it for me to criticize him, but he has not been very accurate recently.
It is amazing if he had truly flipped his views that fast. He usually works from a very long term perspective. As I type this we have gapped down again quite a bit, so today should be very interesting.
ParticipantChris Johnston
jg, If Gross is beraish on bonds, that is a buy signal nowadays, he was the most bullish he had been in a few years right at the high. He was calling this the last bull market in bonds. I also remember a time within the last year that he was bullish, and spoke out, and the bond market had 6 consecutive down closes beginning the very next day. It was clearly a fund that was fading him. Far be it for me to criticize him, but he has not been very accurate recently.
It is amazing if he had truly flipped his views that fast. He usually works from a very long term perspective. As I type this we have gapped down again quite a bit, so today should be very interesting.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Here is my take on today’s action, and I have also posted a chart on my blog displaying it. My long term timing system, which is based on weekly charts, so will not reveal itself until Friday’s close, still shows to be long. The huge jump in the bond yield is unquestionably the culprit in the recent drop. I also posted a chart a few days back showing how that looked at the time.
We are already at 2 standard deviations down in a big uptrend, so that is typically a good buy spot, much better than 2 std deviations down in a downtrend, which means nothing. Of the 5 stocks I bought at the beg of April, 4 of the 5 are substantially ahead, all by more than 10% and one is down 1%. They are holding up better than the mkt as a whole, which I why I bought them to begin with, I thought they would collectively.
I cannot add to my positions on this dip, because I am already so far above my entry, and I never pyramid upward, I put the full position on when I enter.
I expect the market to hold at these levels give or take a little bit, but if my model says to exit come Friday, I will do it on Monday morning. I doubt it will because several things have to happen, and one of them is very unlikely to move enough in just a few days to trigger the sell. My system which is longer term for stocks, does require sitting through retracements like this often. I probably have short term buys in my S&P system for tommorrow, but I have not run the program yet.
I have told my clients in the past as well as written about this pattern in stocks and bonds that we have right here, and it is bearish, make no mistake about it. However, often it goes on for several months before generating a big sell signal. This time could be different, but the commercials are still heavily long, and the seasonals still favor a move up, so I am long until my sell signal is generated.
It is of the utmost importance when volatility enters the market like this to keep emotions out of your trading decisions either way you are looking. I have been humbled too many times to get too carried away with my opinions, so I just follow my systems.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Here is my take on today’s action, and I have also posted a chart on my blog displaying it. My long term timing system, which is based on weekly charts, so will not reveal itself until Friday’s close, still shows to be long. The huge jump in the bond yield is unquestionably the culprit in the recent drop. I also posted a chart a few days back showing how that looked at the time.
We are already at 2 standard deviations down in a big uptrend, so that is typically a good buy spot, much better than 2 std deviations down in a downtrend, which means nothing. Of the 5 stocks I bought at the beg of April, 4 of the 5 are substantially ahead, all by more than 10% and one is down 1%. They are holding up better than the mkt as a whole, which I why I bought them to begin with, I thought they would collectively.
I cannot add to my positions on this dip, because I am already so far above my entry, and I never pyramid upward, I put the full position on when I enter.
I expect the market to hold at these levels give or take a little bit, but if my model says to exit come Friday, I will do it on Monday morning. I doubt it will because several things have to happen, and one of them is very unlikely to move enough in just a few days to trigger the sell. My system which is longer term for stocks, does require sitting through retracements like this often. I probably have short term buys in my S&P system for tommorrow, but I have not run the program yet.
I have told my clients in the past as well as written about this pattern in stocks and bonds that we have right here, and it is bearish, make no mistake about it. However, often it goes on for several months before generating a big sell signal. This time could be different, but the commercials are still heavily long, and the seasonals still favor a move up, so I am long until my sell signal is generated.
It is of the utmost importance when volatility enters the market like this to keep emotions out of your trading decisions either way you are looking. I have been humbled too many times to get too carried away with my opinions, so I just follow my systems.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Matt, sorry you do not like my format, it just comes up like that. I guess I could just delete it, but the full history of the name goes back to a debate I had in here with someone who did not like me. I pointed to a documented place where proof of an annual return of 60% was posted for me, and referred to it as Scoreboard, which is an old trash talking saying from my days as an athlete.
JG, negative sentiment is what I want for the rally to continue, bullish sentiment is a negative in my view. When you look at major peaks and troughs in stock prices you will often find the peaks occur when a sentiment is high and troughs when sentiment is low. There are a number of ways of measuring sentiment, but I like to focus on the small speculators, and the investment advisors, and do the opposite for the most part of what they do. This is somewhat contradictory in that I could be considered an advisor. However, I am talking about the collective whole of the community, not just one individual.
I have no idea if the rally will last until the end of the summer, that is just what my model is telling me. If I see the commercials jump off the long side, while bonds are still as weak as they are now, I will exit my longs instantly. So far, my system says to still be long, so I am. I do think you are going to get a healthy decline that could begin by summers end, as I have said many times before. It is unlikely that the model will be exactly on target, but I did state in here before the fact that a big rally was going to start in April to May, and that was based on the model, so it has been pretty good so far this year.
I hope my model is accurate, and gets me out before it happens. However, I will then view that as another buying opportunity for what it’s worth. If we all agreed on market direction, there would be no trades, so disagreement is imperative.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Matt, sorry you do not like my format, it just comes up like that. I guess I could just delete it, but the full history of the name goes back to a debate I had in here with someone who did not like me. I pointed to a documented place where proof of an annual return of 60% was posted for me, and referred to it as Scoreboard, which is an old trash talking saying from my days as an athlete.
JG, negative sentiment is what I want for the rally to continue, bullish sentiment is a negative in my view. When you look at major peaks and troughs in stock prices you will often find the peaks occur when a sentiment is high and troughs when sentiment is low. There are a number of ways of measuring sentiment, but I like to focus on the small speculators, and the investment advisors, and do the opposite for the most part of what they do. This is somewhat contradictory in that I could be considered an advisor. However, I am talking about the collective whole of the community, not just one individual.
I have no idea if the rally will last until the end of the summer, that is just what my model is telling me. If I see the commercials jump off the long side, while bonds are still as weak as they are now, I will exit my longs instantly. So far, my system says to still be long, so I am. I do think you are going to get a healthy decline that could begin by summers end, as I have said many times before. It is unlikely that the model will be exactly on target, but I did state in here before the fact that a big rally was going to start in April to May, and that was based on the model, so it has been pretty good so far this year.
I hope my model is accurate, and gets me out before it happens. However, I will then view that as another buying opportunity for what it’s worth. If we all agreed on market direction, there would be no trades, so disagreement is imperative.
ParticipantChris Johnston
I agree that he did a wise thing in putting alot down. High leverage is what got people in a bad spot to begin with. Why are people always standing in judgement of others on so many things?
ParticipantChris Johnston
I agree that he did a wise thing in putting alot down. High leverage is what got people in a bad spot to begin with. Why are people always standing in judgement of others on so many things?
ParticipantChris Johnston
Perry, I couldn’t agree more with your comment about the size of the purchase being related to net worth. Now is no time to stretch. I am pretty conservative by nature, and sometimes I assume others are as well, which is a bad assumption on my part.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Perry, I couldn’t agree more with your comment about the size of the purchase being related to net worth. Now is no time to stretch. I am pretty conservative by nature, and sometimes I assume others are as well, which is a bad assumption on my part.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Pery, whether I am a wealthy investor or not, does not effect the point that I made. Emotional knee jerk reaction decisions are rarely good financial moves. To just up and sell and take that loss just because of a fear of what might happen, is simply foolish. The decision has been made, so live with it. It probably is a mistake if you measure it in terms of return in the next few years, but you just cannot go in and out of houses like that due to the transaction costs.
I agree with your point about recognizing the mistake so as not to repeat it, but it is yet to be seen if buying right at this point is in fact a mistake. We do not know that yet. Most of us in here, myself included, do believe values will drop, we just have varying degrees of opinions about how much. Perry ( I think ) is one of the more pessimistic in this area, and I am one of the more optimistic ( -20%). Who knows who is right.
The point about working is just that, go to work and enjoy your life, stop worrying about the hourly value of your home. Working harder if it is what you enjoy, is not work in my opinion. If you hate your job, get a new one, or work less.
From a pure sentiment standpoint, it is getting negative enough out there where it does bear watching as a contra play, in other words buy spot. We are not there yet, but could be within a year.
ParticipantChris Johnston
Pery, whether I am a wealthy investor or not, does not effect the point that I made. Emotional knee jerk reaction decisions are rarely good financial moves. To just up and sell and take that loss just because of a fear of what might happen, is simply foolish. The decision has been made, so live with it. It probably is a mistake if you measure it in terms of return in the next few years, but you just cannot go in and out of houses like that due to the transaction costs.
I agree with your point about recognizing the mistake so as not to repeat it, but it is yet to be seen if buying right at this point is in fact a mistake. We do not know that yet. Most of us in here, myself included, do believe values will drop, we just have varying degrees of opinions about how much. Perry ( I think ) is one of the more pessimistic in this area, and I am one of the more optimistic ( -20%). Who knows who is right.
The point about working is just that, go to work and enjoy your life, stop worrying about the hourly value of your home. Working harder if it is what you enjoy, is not work in my opinion. If you hate your job, get a new one, or work less.
From a pure sentiment standpoint, it is getting negative enough out there where it does bear watching as a contra play, in other words buy spot. We are not there yet, but could be within a year.
ParticipantChris Johnston
There is absolutely nothing wrong with your situation. To just sell your house now to avoid this world ending financial debacle that many are calling for would be more foolish. People in here treat housing like the outcome they predict is 100% guaranteed. They are so sure that they will be able to buy the exact house they want in the exact location they desire, for 50% off. I will say this, I am just as sure they will not be able to do that. Who is to say who is right at this point.
Focus on your job opportunity and enjoy the area. You have already bought it least some off the peak, and it is possible the world will not end in RE. If we only drop another 10% you would be foolish to sell. There are only a few real experts on RE in here, everyone else is just an internet RE expert from reading about what MIGHT happen. So you cannot brag at the next cocktail party about your housing gains, big deal. I just bought a home for quite a bit more than your price, and could care less what happens to its value, I bought it to live in it and enjoy life. You should never buy a home just to make a quick gain on it.
Although it is highly unlikely that we will get into any kind of RE boom in the next few years, it is possible that prices will just drift slowly down like they are now. In that instance, you will be fine. You cannot day trade houses anyway. People in many parts of the country live for long periods being upside down or flat on their house values, and never have a thought about it because it is not an investment.
-
AuthorPosts
