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Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantHWG – not sure about the Fed minutes. It appears to me they are not going to do anything with rates in the near term. However, I do not analyze “the story” as I call it. What that means is that I do not subjectively evaluate my views on things and try to synthesize them into action. This leads to very inconsistent results over time. So, I do have my opinions on things, but I have learned the hard way not to take action based upon them.
Sorry for the non-answer.
ParticipantPD – I see no reason to be long Gold here at all, and that is the exact words I told one of my clients who was wanting to buy when we were at 680 a short while ago. The short term trend is down, and the longer term trend is flat, so I see no immediate opportunity. I am not a believer in the story of the long term trend of Gold to 3000 or whatever pie in the sky price anyone wants to name. I think the game is over there. The stories always come out after the run has already happened, and the public gets pulled it to the game at the end of the run.
There is no relationship whatsoever between Gold and stock prices that I have found, but there is one between Gold and Bonds.
ParticipantPD – I see no reason to be long Gold here at all, and that is the exact words I told one of my clients who was wanting to buy when we were at 680 a short while ago. The short term trend is down, and the longer term trend is flat, so I see no immediate opportunity. I am not a believer in the story of the long term trend of Gold to 3000 or whatever pie in the sky price anyone wants to name. I think the game is over there. The stories always come out after the run has already happened, and the public gets pulled it to the game at the end of the run.
There is no relationship whatsoever between Gold and stock prices that I have found, but there is one between Gold and Bonds.
ParticipantConfirmed Hindenburg Omen, what is the world is that supposed to mean? Define that for us. I also like the qualifer to that, which way is it a crash or not, get off the fence. Who is wikepedia.com?
ParticipantConfirmed Hindenburg Omen, what is the world is that supposed to mean? Define that for us. I also like the qualifer to that, which way is it a crash or not, get off the fence. Who is wikepedia.com?
Participantjg – yes, the commercials increased their longs to the highest position in the last year this week, which is very bullish. Also, bonds have halted for the moment their parabolic drop, so things look very good to me for the near term which is the next 30 days or so. The 5 stocks I own all fell very little today, so they are outperforming the market as a whole, which is the goal.
We do have a trading range here so I think we will break out to the upside out of it in the next few weeks some time. If we get weak economic data, that will likely spark a big rally in stocks because it will trigger a rally in bonds.
Participantjg – yes, the commercials increased their longs to the highest position in the last year this week, which is very bullish. Also, bonds have halted for the moment their parabolic drop, so things look very good to me for the near term which is the next 30 days or so. The 5 stocks I own all fell very little today, so they are outperforming the market as a whole, which is the goal.
We do have a trading range here so I think we will break out to the upside out of it in the next few weeks some time. If we get weak economic data, that will likely spark a big rally in stocks because it will trigger a rally in bonds.
ParticipantFWIW – the stats on buying IPO’s on the open the first day of trading on the stuidies I have done, are about 50/50 that the price will be higher one year later. As a result, there is no reason to chase them, they are no better than a flip of the coin. Some obviously like GOOG are home runs, but there are just as many flops.
ParticipantFWIW – the stats on buying IPO’s on the open the first day of trading on the stuidies I have done, are about 50/50 that the price will be higher one year later. As a result, there is no reason to chase them, they are no better than a flip of the coin. Some obviously like GOOG are home runs, but there are just as many flops.
ParticipantIt is likely we will never see that level of pricing in the S&P ever again
ParticipantIt is likely we will never see that level of pricing in the S&P ever again
ParticipantI am one of the recent buyers on this board, so apparently I am a dumbo as well. Also, I did an interest only loan fixed for 7 years after putting 20% down, another dumb move, oh wait a minute, I have over double the amount in cash that my mortgage balance represents. Maybe I am not so stupid, and actually am conservative?
The one thing that is lacking here is the concept that houses cannot be traded like stocks. I am in the camp that values will drop as most people know at this point, but that does not mean there are not deals to be had out there, and I found one, so I pulled the trigger.
It seems to me that some of the more bearish people should take note that in spite of the perfect storm of negative news, prices have not gone down that much.
My point – it is not stupid for everyone to buy a home right now, everyone’s circumstances are different. It would be stupid to buy a home right now trying to flip it.
ParticipantI am one of the recent buyers on this board, so apparently I am a dumbo as well. Also, I did an interest only loan fixed for 7 years after putting 20% down, another dumb move, oh wait a minute, I have over double the amount in cash that my mortgage balance represents. Maybe I am not so stupid, and actually am conservative?
The one thing that is lacking here is the concept that houses cannot be traded like stocks. I am in the camp that values will drop as most people know at this point, but that does not mean there are not deals to be had out there, and I found one, so I pulled the trigger.
It seems to me that some of the more bearish people should take note that in spite of the perfect storm of negative news, prices have not gone down that much.
My point – it is not stupid for everyone to buy a home right now, everyone’s circumstances are different. It would be stupid to buy a home right now trying to flip it.
ParticipantFirst, I do not try to be a wise guy intentionally, I just wind up on the other side of things most of the time for some reason.
I like to Fade the Wall Street Journal ( do the opposite of the headlines ) just in general. Publications like that are always late to the party and usually a good confirmation that something is about to change in the opposite direction of what they write about.
I use both Tradestation and Genesis software for programming my trading systems. Each has advantages and disadvantages.
Interactive Brokers has the best trading platform by far, and the lowest commission rates, but their customer service is a disaster. Be prepared to speak a foreign language once your 25 minute hold is up, when you call in needing an answer is 30 seconds or less. They will route you to any one of a number of foreign countries. They clipped me for about 25k on a bogus electronic platform failure that they blamed on the exchange, that no other firm had at the same time. Of course this is impossible. I have other friends who have had similar experiences, but they are cheap and I have heard better nowadays. I moved my money out of there after that experience.
Above all, you must do your own research. Any guru will have his or her hot and cold streaks, myself included, so it is always best to make your own decisions. It can be a bit overwhelming, but there are many simple approaches to learn, that do not require huge time commitments. The kitchen sink approach, however does. This is the approach where you arbitrarily weigh the dollar, deficits, fed policy, and 59 other economic variables, and then try to come to a decision as far as what you will do next. No matter how sharp you are, bad decisions will come from that type of approach, or worse decisions that are based on opinions, which leads to alot of second guessing.
Above all, establish parameters for entry and exit points on all investment decisions, before you enter them and ALWAYS FOLLOW THEM. The biggest mistake I see people make, and I have done it myself in my early days, is getting into an investment that immediately goes against the desired direction, and then not knowing when to get out. Emotions take over and before you know it you are short the S&P and down 10% and holding on for dear life. “Well I will just hold on a little longer.” “Damn it, I know I am right.” “What if I get out now and tomorrow the thing skyrockets up?”
These are all comments I hear on the phone from clients and friends all the time. I get out when my rules say to get out, and in when they say to get in. Sometimes I buy the exact high and sell the exact low, who cares. I never get tagged for a huge loss on any one transaction because I follow my rules. I know that over time, keeping emotions and ego out of it will serve me well.
There is always another trade or investment to look at, but there is not always another dollar to place in it. Protect what you have by using discipline not emotion.
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