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Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantI think everyone needs to set the emotion about the market aside for a moment. I saw a post the other day, that I think was by vrudny that said we are now in a bear market. That is complete nonsense, look at a weekly S&P chart if you need convincing. Will it become one, who knows, but it is not one at this point, we have not even retraced 10% from the highs. There are sectors that are in bear markets, but the market as a whole is not.
Typically wide range bars with closes right on the low are actually slightly bullish for the next day by pattern testing. As a result, the stage is not set for a meltdown today, even though anything can happen. I think we move sideways to slighly down for about 2 weeks, then head back up to new highs before year end. If the commercials shift out of their heavy long position, I will change my stance on this.
ParticipantI think everyone needs to set the emotion about the market aside for a moment. I saw a post the other day, that I think was by vrudny that said we are now in a bear market. That is complete nonsense, look at a weekly S&P chart if you need convincing. Will it become one, who knows, but it is not one at this point, we have not even retraced 10% from the highs. There are sectors that are in bear markets, but the market as a whole is not.
Typically wide range bars with closes right on the low are actually slightly bullish for the next day by pattern testing. As a result, the stage is not set for a meltdown today, even though anything can happen. I think we move sideways to slighly down for about 2 weeks, then head back up to new highs before year end. If the commercials shift out of their heavy long position, I will change my stance on this.
ParticipantBTW – I just want to state for the record, that I am in agreement with Bugs and most others that from a timing standpoint, this is not a good time to buy a home for the near term valuation of it. However, I do not see the really nice high end homes crashing in value thus far. Many that are nice and over 1M still sell reasonably quickly if they are priced properly. I have seen a few go in less than a week. The reach price is another story.
Remodeling to me is a different decision than buying a home. Often what an individual considers nice, the next person will hate. I have changed my place to a meditteranean type of feel from a more country style ranch home, which I like but I am sure someone who likes French Country would hate. Remodeling is more of a quality of life decision than an investment. Rarely will you get dollar for dollar in resale on remodeling, and certainly not in this market.
I am not so wealthy that money does not matter, so I think a few people are giving me too much credit in this area. I just allocated X number of dollars to remodel during the buying process, set it aside, and spent it and not a dollar more at this point. Some things that I would like to do are on the waiting list for the next cash inflow. Based on the last month, it appears it will be a long wait for those items.
ParticipantBTW – I just want to state for the record, that I am in agreement with Bugs and most others that from a timing standpoint, this is not a good time to buy a home for the near term valuation of it. However, I do not see the really nice high end homes crashing in value thus far. Many that are nice and over 1M still sell reasonably quickly if they are priced properly. I have seen a few go in less than a week. The reach price is another story.
Remodeling to me is a different decision than buying a home. Often what an individual considers nice, the next person will hate. I have changed my place to a meditteranean type of feel from a more country style ranch home, which I like but I am sure someone who likes French Country would hate. Remodeling is more of a quality of life decision than an investment. Rarely will you get dollar for dollar in resale on remodeling, and certainly not in this market.
I am not so wealthy that money does not matter, so I think a few people are giving me too much credit in this area. I just allocated X number of dollars to remodel during the buying process, set it aside, and spent it and not a dollar more at this point. Some things that I would like to do are on the waiting list for the next cash inflow. Based on the last month, it appears it will be a long wait for those items.
ParticipantGood work Capeman, you have a very nice trade going. I did misunderstand your post but I was not being sarcastic in my response. I truly meant that as a compliment. I have been reviewing in great detail what happened this week as I am writing my monthly newsletter right now, and I simply missed my call for a sharp drop by a week and my system did not catch it.
I do suspect the rally is going to resume, but I could have done much better exiting and re-entering so far. The question will be, where does the rally resume from. I would not have re-entered yet on this small of a pullback. If it does go back up from right here, staying put has been correct. If it is from much further below, it has been a mistake. Time will tell. The fundamentals look very good and the chart looks very bad.
ParticipantGood work Capeman, you have a very nice trade going. I did misunderstand your post but I was not being sarcastic in my response. I truly meant that as a compliment. I have been reviewing in great detail what happened this week as I am writing my monthly newsletter right now, and I simply missed my call for a sharp drop by a week and my system did not catch it.
I do suspect the rally is going to resume, but I could have done much better exiting and re-entering so far. The question will be, where does the rally resume from. I would not have re-entered yet on this small of a pullback. If it does go back up from right here, staying put has been correct. If it is from much further below, it has been a mistake. Time will tell. The fundamentals look very good and the chart looks very bad.
ParticipantI think you will find a different attitude already with subs for your remodel, I sure have with all that I have done with the place I bought in March. Most of the people are very slow right now, and very eager to please from a price and scheduling standpoint. As to the timing, it is irrelevant unless you are measuring your outlay in terms of resale value in the near term. Since you stated you weren’t, it should not be a consideration. It has not been for me at all. I focused on setting the place up the way I want to live in it forever, in case I do. That is what should always be the focus in my opinion for something like this.
ParticipantI think you will find a different attitude already with subs for your remodel, I sure have with all that I have done with the place I bought in March. Most of the people are very slow right now, and very eager to please from a price and scheduling standpoint. As to the timing, it is irrelevant unless you are measuring your outlay in terms of resale value in the near term. Since you stated you weren’t, it should not be a consideration. It has not been for me at all. I focused on setting the place up the way I want to live in it forever, in case I do. That is what should always be the focus in my opinion for something like this.
ParticipantWe have rallied over 5 full points off the lows in the 30 Yr, so this is already a significant rally, will it stick?
I think it will if history is any guide. Alot of people in here think it will be different this time in many asset classes, so if they are right, it will not hold. I bet with history, and at times I am wrong, but my odds are good.
This rally takes the Fed off the hook if it sticks. Rates are already lower over the last 2 months, and they have not had to do anything. This is what is referred to as the PPT ( Plunge Protections Team ) at work. Remember, the Fed does not control the rates that banks extend to consumers.
ParticipantWe have rallied over 5 full points off the lows in the 30 Yr, so this is already a significant rally, will it stick?
I think it will if history is any guide. Alot of people in here think it will be different this time in many asset classes, so if they are right, it will not hold. I bet with history, and at times I am wrong, but my odds are good.
This rally takes the Fed off the hook if it sticks. Rates are already lower over the last 2 months, and they have not had to do anything. This is what is referred to as the PPT ( Plunge Protections Team ) at work. Remember, the Fed does not control the rates that banks extend to consumers.
ParticipantHope for a nuclear war, that is what it will take for this to happen. Barring that, no chance.
ParticipantHope for a nuclear war, that is what it will take for this to happen. Barring that, no chance.
ParticipantWell that is truly amazing and quite frankly ranks you as the greatest trader who has ever lived. To not have taken one short at all during this whole bull run, then loaded the boat at the exact high! I speak with many of the greats, and am aware of most of what the ones I do not talk to are doing, and none of them have been that good.
I will defer in this blog to you because you are clearly superior to me, and I always check my ego at the door.
Congrats, you have out traded me by a wide margin. BTW, this is not intended to be sarcastic, I am being serious, whoever you are, if you are really that good, we all can learn alot from you.
ParticipantWell that is truly amazing and quite frankly ranks you as the greatest trader who has ever lived. To not have taken one short at all during this whole bull run, then loaded the boat at the exact high! I speak with many of the greats, and am aware of most of what the ones I do not talk to are doing, and none of them have been that good.
I will defer in this blog to you because you are clearly superior to me, and I always check my ego at the door.
Congrats, you have out traded me by a wide margin. BTW, this is not intended to be sarcastic, I am being serious, whoever you are, if you are really that good, we all can learn alot from you.
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