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Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantGood topic, and bound to be met with a wave of anger. I have no idea where prices will go next, but I can say that I look at both sides of the argument constantly. One sided thinking has never made me any money. A lack of willingness to acknowledge even a chance that one’s opinion could be wrong is rarely a trait of successful people that I have met. The fact that you are itleast willing to consider that a crash may not happen bodes well for your investment future.
The news is horredous everywhere, but what matters is what price actually does as a reaction to it, not what it should do. We have had awful volume for a long time now, and prices have not gone down much. If somehow prices hold up over the next year in the face of this avalanche of negative news, that would be a very bullish sign. I do not know if they will or not, but I am willing to consider that it is a possibility.
Put your helmet on, you may get hammered suggesting this.
ParticipantIf things are truly that bad, and I have no idea at all if they are, the Fed will step in. They will not let a crisis of that magnitude happen, rates will be tanked and the dollar let go if they had to make that choice. It seems that is an exaggeration, but I do not know. He is a wild guy, but he is very smart, and has alot of experience, and contacts that are insiders.
ParticipantIf things are truly that bad, and I have no idea at all if they are, the Fed will step in. They will not let a crisis of that magnitude happen, rates will be tanked and the dollar let go if they had to make that choice. It seems that is an exaggeration, but I do not know. He is a wild guy, but he is very smart, and has alot of experience, and contacts that are insiders.
ParticipantDave and everyone else,
I do agree with most of what everyone says about the big picture issues, or I would not be here. If everyone goes back in the archives you will all see that I repeatedly called for a nasty decline beginning about August 1st. I probably said that in here 10 or more times. I was off by one week, however, that was just a prediction 6 months ahead of time. When it came down to it, and it is still the case today, my longer term large swing method still says to be long, so I am staying long.
I do wish I had gone with my gut and exited a few weeks ago when I had a huge profit ( but I do not trade with emotions ), but if I had, I would definitely be buying back now, and most of my stocks are still above where I bought them. There is no question we are in a panic sell off at this point, yet the commercials have now gone to the largest long position they have had all year, and bonds are rallying. This is a texbook buy signal, albeit not a day trade type of setup. These types of buys can take awhile to work because they are fundamentally and not technically based. As a result, I think a sharp bounce will happen very soon, and that is where I am likely to exit.
If we just freefall, then I guess I am stuck riding it down. I am short the futures in the S&P right now in my short term trading, and up a bundle on that trade ( I shorted the open today ). Very interesting times we live in, and congrats to all who shorted the high, you have out done me on this decline by a ton. My models have served me too well to desert them now just because it did not catch the exact high, it is not designed to.
The sell signals usually get generated on a bounce after an initial drop like this, so I think that is what will happen. In the meantime, it is still a T-bill margined trade that has a 4.89% gain in interest and about 5% in stock profits, plus about 1% in dividends so almost 11% still, so not a total disaster yet.
If we do not get the bounce, I will completely admit that I was totally wrong as I always do when I am. As a trader there is no hiding, the proof is in the results not the talk. I know what crow tastes like!
ParticipantDave and everyone else,
I do agree with most of what everyone says about the big picture issues, or I would not be here. If everyone goes back in the archives you will all see that I repeatedly called for a nasty decline beginning about August 1st. I probably said that in here 10 or more times. I was off by one week, however, that was just a prediction 6 months ahead of time. When it came down to it, and it is still the case today, my longer term large swing method still says to be long, so I am staying long.
I do wish I had gone with my gut and exited a few weeks ago when I had a huge profit ( but I do not trade with emotions ), but if I had, I would definitely be buying back now, and most of my stocks are still above where I bought them. There is no question we are in a panic sell off at this point, yet the commercials have now gone to the largest long position they have had all year, and bonds are rallying. This is a texbook buy signal, albeit not a day trade type of setup. These types of buys can take awhile to work because they are fundamentally and not technically based. As a result, I think a sharp bounce will happen very soon, and that is where I am likely to exit.
If we just freefall, then I guess I am stuck riding it down. I am short the futures in the S&P right now in my short term trading, and up a bundle on that trade ( I shorted the open today ). Very interesting times we live in, and congrats to all who shorted the high, you have out done me on this decline by a ton. My models have served me too well to desert them now just because it did not catch the exact high, it is not designed to.
The sell signals usually get generated on a bounce after an initial drop like this, so I think that is what will happen. In the meantime, it is still a T-bill margined trade that has a 4.89% gain in interest and about 5% in stock profits, plus about 1% in dividends so almost 11% still, so not a total disaster yet.
If we do not get the bounce, I will completely admit that I was totally wrong as I always do when I am. As a trader there is no hiding, the proof is in the results not the talk. I know what crow tastes like!
ParticipantPigs will fly before prices drop 20% by years ends and another 20 to 40% next year. I urge people to get rid of this overly emotional thinking on things, it is never going to allow you to see true opportunities for what they are.
ParticipantPigs will fly before prices drop 20% by years ends and another 20 to 40% next year. I urge people to get rid of this overly emotional thinking on things, it is never going to allow you to see true opportunities for what they are.
ParticipantPlease keep in mind when watching the overnight globex sessions, that they are the small investors, which do not control the markets. Most of the trades are 1 and 2 lot trades, which is why you see such dramatic swings, there is just no volume. Do not get too emotionally involved one way or another when you see a huge move at midnight, due to the fact that they are most often caused by small volume.
As far as the comment about throwing all the models out because it is different this time, I do not feel it is fair to criticize the bulls in stocks or RE who argue that it is different this time therefore prices cannot go down, yet use the argument that it is different this time to support why prices should go down. Which is it, is it different this time or not? If it is, then you cannot throw out the bullish arguments in stocks or RE, if it is the you have to grant them the possibility that the bulls could be right. If it is not different this time, the models of the past cannot be thrown out. I do not think it is different this time in either market, cycles exist, and they will play out.
ParticipantPlease keep in mind when watching the overnight globex sessions, that they are the small investors, which do not control the markets. Most of the trades are 1 and 2 lot trades, which is why you see such dramatic swings, there is just no volume. Do not get too emotionally involved one way or another when you see a huge move at midnight, due to the fact that they are most often caused by small volume.
As far as the comment about throwing all the models out because it is different this time, I do not feel it is fair to criticize the bulls in stocks or RE who argue that it is different this time therefore prices cannot go down, yet use the argument that it is different this time to support why prices should go down. Which is it, is it different this time or not? If it is, then you cannot throw out the bullish arguments in stocks or RE, if it is the you have to grant them the possibility that the bulls could be right. If it is not different this time, the models of the past cannot be thrown out. I do not think it is different this time in either market, cycles exist, and they will play out.
ParticipantMy blog has my most current view. I do agree that the price action is just awful. More or less I think we will get a bounce here, we are extremely oversold here, that probably fails to make new highs, and that is where my timing model will generate the exit. If you go back in the archives, you will see that I predicted a significant decline starting at the beg of August or thereabouts, so I was about a week off.
However, the commercials are still heavily long, which I did not anticipate when I made that prediction so long ago. As a result, I delayed that call as we approached the date, and as we now know, that was a mistake. They are not normally heavily long in August ( this is displayed on the blog chart), so that may delay the drop off. I am watching closely, make no mistake about it.
The overnight globex action improved a great deal from when some of these posts were made, so the open was not that bad. We are llooking at a short term buy spot right here, but it will not be long in duration, perhaps a few weeks.
ParticipantMy blog has my most current view. I do agree that the price action is just awful. More or less I think we will get a bounce here, we are extremely oversold here, that probably fails to make new highs, and that is where my timing model will generate the exit. If you go back in the archives, you will see that I predicted a significant decline starting at the beg of August or thereabouts, so I was about a week off.
However, the commercials are still heavily long, which I did not anticipate when I made that prediction so long ago. As a result, I delayed that call as we approached the date, and as we now know, that was a mistake. They are not normally heavily long in August ( this is displayed on the blog chart), so that may delay the drop off. I am watching closely, make no mistake about it.
The overnight globex action improved a great deal from when some of these posts were made, so the open was not that bad. We are llooking at a short term buy spot right here, but it will not be long in duration, perhaps a few weeks.
ParticipantIronically, I watched Kramers shows for the first time last night. He is entertaining I think. I think he was mocking the bearish people with his initial piece and constant shots back at it throughout the show. He is clearly bearish on RE, but so is everyone else at this point. It is one thing to walk away from a bad stock, and another to walk away from a bad loan.
He is very bullish on CAT which is not a stock that would rise in an economic malaise, so this is where you have to take his comments in context. I know many want to believe that he also thinks the world will end, but that was not my take from his comments last night.
I think he is a pretty sharp guy, who has a entertaining style and I will probably watch him more. However, I will not take any of his trades as I make my own decisions there and always will.
ParticipantIronically, I watched Kramers shows for the first time last night. He is entertaining I think. I think he was mocking the bearish people with his initial piece and constant shots back at it throughout the show. He is clearly bearish on RE, but so is everyone else at this point. It is one thing to walk away from a bad stock, and another to walk away from a bad loan.
He is very bullish on CAT which is not a stock that would rise in an economic malaise, so this is where you have to take his comments in context. I know many want to believe that he also thinks the world will end, but that was not my take from his comments last night.
I think he is a pretty sharp guy, who has a entertaining style and I will probably watch him more. However, I will not take any of his trades as I make my own decisions there and always will.
ParticipantFair enough, you absolutely have a right to your opinion. I have a million dollars more or less in this trade that is up about 10% again after today, so about 100k profit. Let’s see who is right by the time I exit, if in fact I actually lose money on the basket of stocks that I own. I do not consider that I am losing money, when I have an open profit of that amount.
Let’s just sit back and see who is right, let the jury decide. Unlike many here, I always say I could be wrong, and do actually admit to it when I am.
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