[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The dollar is in a long term up cycle that should last several years. This is a well known established cycle that began last year. I am a trader not an economist, so these theories about what will happen are not part of this evaluation. This is strictly based on my technical analysis of the price action in the dollar.

We are in a devalaution cycle as well, so with these two things put together I do not believe Gold and Silver will appreciate alot in price in the near term.

Just my two cents, but I am the only one in here that I know of that has been bullish on the dollar in recent months. It has been choppy, but the commercials are buying into this recent decline, so I think the dollar is going to rise, maybe by quite a bit soon.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The dollar is in a long term up cycle that should last several years. This is a well known established cycle that began last year. I am a trader not an economist, so these theories about what will happen are not part of this evaluation. This is strictly based on my technical analysis of the price action in the dollar.

We are in a devalaution cycle as well, so with these two things put together I do not believe Gold and Silver will appreciate alot in price in the near term.

Just my two cents, but I am the only one in here that I know of that has been bullish on the dollar in recent months. It has been choppy, but the commercials are buying into this recent decline, so I think the dollar is going to rise, maybe by quite a bit soon.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The dollar is in a long term up cycle that should last several years. This is a well known established cycle that began last year. I am a trader not an economist, so these theories about what will happen are not part of this evaluation. This is strictly based on my technical analysis of the price action in the dollar.

We are in a devalaution cycle as well, so with these two things put together I do not believe Gold and Silver will appreciate alot in price in the near term.

Just my two cents, but I am the only one in here that I know of that has been bullish on the dollar in recent months. It has been choppy, but the commercials are buying into this recent decline, so I think the dollar is going to rise, maybe by quite a bit soon.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The dollar is in a long term up cycle that should last several years. This is a well known established cycle that began last year. I am a trader not an economist, so these theories about what will happen are not part of this evaluation. This is strictly based on my technical analysis of the price action in the dollar.

We are in a devalaution cycle as well, so with these two things put together I do not believe Gold and Silver will appreciate alot in price in the near term.

Just my two cents, but I am the only one in here that I know of that has been bullish on the dollar in recent months. It has been choppy, but the commercials are buying into this recent decline, so I think the dollar is going to rise, maybe by quite a bit soon.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The dollar is in a long term up cycle that should last several years. This is a well known established cycle that began last year. I am a trader not an economist, so these theories about what will happen are not part of this evaluation. This is strictly based on my technical analysis of the price action in the dollar.

We are in a devalaution cycle as well, so with these two things put together I do not believe Gold and Silver will appreciate alot in price in the near term.

Just my two cents, but I am the only one in here that I know of that has been bullish on the dollar in recent months. It has been choppy, but the commercials are buying into this recent decline, so I think the dollar is going to rise, maybe by quite a bit soon.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Dave

I for one appreciate your summaries on these issues due to the fact that I do not have the depth of knowledge that you do in these areas, and do not pretend to be a paper champion like so many who read a few things then start challenging you. That is generally embarassing to the challengers.

I have openly written in my blog that I do not believe we have seen the low in stocks based on my ongoing analysis of the COT report and what the big money has been doing. I also wrote in there for anybody who read it, that the rally in stocks would start March 13th or within a few days of that, I wrote this at the end of Feb and again at the very beginning of March.

I do not like being in agreement with so many amateurs who think we are going way lower, but my analysis is what it is, 5500 appears to be a fair value for the Dow and a good place to start buying for long term hold purposes. Commercials are selling this rally which has historically led to selloffs and rallies failing.

You are right about the reversion from extended moves. My research has told me over the years that often when you get an extended move in one direction, you actually should initially go with it because it is an underlying sign of strength. When the reversion takes place, it rarely overshoots in the opposite direction. Comments like that are made by people with no real experience with real money at stakes in these swings. It is merely a possibility not a probability. That is not to say it cannot happen, but it is not a high probability. Often the retracements are sharp and short, again markets will defy the masses. Even in the commodities markets with the massive reversals we had, they have not overcorrected by anywhere near the same degree they rose. What everyone waits for rarely happens. I do sense the masses buying the media hype about this rally, that is not good. My sentiment indicators are over 70 now which is bearish and are rising almost daily.

Cramer may have had his moments in the past but he has not been very good recently when I have come across his comments. He is just way too emotional to trade well.

Also, I hear all this crap about markets rising on increasing volume being bullish etc. If you study this in detail you will find there is no such correlation at all. I have no idea how so many smart peoople have been suckered into that notion.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Dave

I for one appreciate your summaries on these issues due to the fact that I do not have the depth of knowledge that you do in these areas, and do not pretend to be a paper champion like so many who read a few things then start challenging you. That is generally embarassing to the challengers.

I have openly written in my blog that I do not believe we have seen the low in stocks based on my ongoing analysis of the COT report and what the big money has been doing. I also wrote in there for anybody who read it, that the rally in stocks would start March 13th or within a few days of that, I wrote this at the end of Feb and again at the very beginning of March.

I do not like being in agreement with so many amateurs who think we are going way lower, but my analysis is what it is, 5500 appears to be a fair value for the Dow and a good place to start buying for long term hold purposes. Commercials are selling this rally which has historically led to selloffs and rallies failing.

You are right about the reversion from extended moves. My research has told me over the years that often when you get an extended move in one direction, you actually should initially go with it because it is an underlying sign of strength. When the reversion takes place, it rarely overshoots in the opposite direction. Comments like that are made by people with no real experience with real money at stakes in these swings. It is merely a possibility not a probability. That is not to say it cannot happen, but it is not a high probability. Often the retracements are sharp and short, again markets will defy the masses. Even in the commodities markets with the massive reversals we had, they have not overcorrected by anywhere near the same degree they rose. What everyone waits for rarely happens. I do sense the masses buying the media hype about this rally, that is not good. My sentiment indicators are over 70 now which is bearish and are rising almost daily.

Cramer may have had his moments in the past but he has not been very good recently when I have come across his comments. He is just way too emotional to trade well.

Also, I hear all this crap about markets rising on increasing volume being bullish etc. If you study this in detail you will find there is no such correlation at all. I have no idea how so many smart peoople have been suckered into that notion.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Dave

I for one appreciate your summaries on these issues due to the fact that I do not have the depth of knowledge that you do in these areas, and do not pretend to be a paper champion like so many who read a few things then start challenging you. That is generally embarassing to the challengers.

I have openly written in my blog that I do not believe we have seen the low in stocks based on my ongoing analysis of the COT report and what the big money has been doing. I also wrote in there for anybody who read it, that the rally in stocks would start March 13th or within a few days of that, I wrote this at the end of Feb and again at the very beginning of March.

I do not like being in agreement with so many amateurs who think we are going way lower, but my analysis is what it is, 5500 appears to be a fair value for the Dow and a good place to start buying for long term hold purposes. Commercials are selling this rally which has historically led to selloffs and rallies failing.

You are right about the reversion from extended moves. My research has told me over the years that often when you get an extended move in one direction, you actually should initially go with it because it is an underlying sign of strength. When the reversion takes place, it rarely overshoots in the opposite direction. Comments like that are made by people with no real experience with real money at stakes in these swings. It is merely a possibility not a probability. That is not to say it cannot happen, but it is not a high probability. Often the retracements are sharp and short, again markets will defy the masses. Even in the commodities markets with the massive reversals we had, they have not overcorrected by anywhere near the same degree they rose. What everyone waits for rarely happens. I do sense the masses buying the media hype about this rally, that is not good. My sentiment indicators are over 70 now which is bearish and are rising almost daily.

Cramer may have had his moments in the past but he has not been very good recently when I have come across his comments. He is just way too emotional to trade well.

Also, I hear all this crap about markets rising on increasing volume being bullish etc. If you study this in detail you will find there is no such correlation at all. I have no idea how so many smart peoople have been suckered into that notion.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Dave

I for one appreciate your summaries on these issues due to the fact that I do not have the depth of knowledge that you do in these areas, and do not pretend to be a paper champion like so many who read a few things then start challenging you. That is generally embarassing to the challengers.

I have openly written in my blog that I do not believe we have seen the low in stocks based on my ongoing analysis of the COT report and what the big money has been doing. I also wrote in there for anybody who read it, that the rally in stocks would start March 13th or within a few days of that, I wrote this at the end of Feb and again at the very beginning of March.

I do not like being in agreement with so many amateurs who think we are going way lower, but my analysis is what it is, 5500 appears to be a fair value for the Dow and a good place to start buying for long term hold purposes. Commercials are selling this rally which has historically led to selloffs and rallies failing.

You are right about the reversion from extended moves. My research has told me over the years that often when you get an extended move in one direction, you actually should initially go with it because it is an underlying sign of strength. When the reversion takes place, it rarely overshoots in the opposite direction. Comments like that are made by people with no real experience with real money at stakes in these swings. It is merely a possibility not a probability. That is not to say it cannot happen, but it is not a high probability. Often the retracements are sharp and short, again markets will defy the masses. Even in the commodities markets with the massive reversals we had, they have not overcorrected by anywhere near the same degree they rose. What everyone waits for rarely happens. I do sense the masses buying the media hype about this rally, that is not good. My sentiment indicators are over 70 now which is bearish and are rising almost daily.

Cramer may have had his moments in the past but he has not been very good recently when I have come across his comments. He is just way too emotional to trade well.

Also, I hear all this crap about markets rising on increasing volume being bullish etc. If you study this in detail you will find there is no such correlation at all. I have no idea how so many smart peoople have been suckered into that notion.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Dave

I for one appreciate your summaries on these issues due to the fact that I do not have the depth of knowledge that you do in these areas, and do not pretend to be a paper champion like so many who read a few things then start challenging you. That is generally embarassing to the challengers.

I have openly written in my blog that I do not believe we have seen the low in stocks based on my ongoing analysis of the COT report and what the big money has been doing. I also wrote in there for anybody who read it, that the rally in stocks would start March 13th or within a few days of that, I wrote this at the end of Feb and again at the very beginning of March.

I do not like being in agreement with so many amateurs who think we are going way lower, but my analysis is what it is, 5500 appears to be a fair value for the Dow and a good place to start buying for long term hold purposes. Commercials are selling this rally which has historically led to selloffs and rallies failing.

You are right about the reversion from extended moves. My research has told me over the years that often when you get an extended move in one direction, you actually should initially go with it because it is an underlying sign of strength. When the reversion takes place, it rarely overshoots in the opposite direction. Comments like that are made by people with no real experience with real money at stakes in these swings. It is merely a possibility not a probability. That is not to say it cannot happen, but it is not a high probability. Often the retracements are sharp and short, again markets will defy the masses. Even in the commodities markets with the massive reversals we had, they have not overcorrected by anywhere near the same degree they rose. What everyone waits for rarely happens. I do sense the masses buying the media hype about this rally, that is not good. My sentiment indicators are over 70 now which is bearish and are rising almost daily.

Cramer may have had his moments in the past but he has not been very good recently when I have come across his comments. He is just way too emotional to trade well.

Also, I hear all this crap about markets rising on increasing volume being bullish etc. If you study this in detail you will find there is no such correlation at all. I have no idea how so many smart peoople have been suckered into that notion.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As I read this thread I see alot of people talking about deflation. My question is how do those of you who foresee deflation continuing also think the US Dollar will decline during a period like that, or Gold will rise?

It could happen but neither of these scenarios has never happened before.

As to the original post, I agree with most of you, this is just the result of a down business cycle. Everyone has to lower their prices to sell products during a recession. I have a specific example of price quotes I got for clearing and mulching a bunch of brush on my ranch last year. Daveys ( a national company quoted my $5500 and said it might take them two day. I then went to a local landscaping place who quoted $875 and got it done in 6 hours. When the Daveys guy called to follow up, I told him I had already had the work done, and what I paid for it. He went on to explain why his overhead does not allow him to be that cheap. I have also battled with the Propane suppliers who clearly have collusion on pricing going on. Unfortunately for the manager of the propane company he did not realize I am a commodities trader and I emailed him a chart of the spot price crushing his bullshit argument. Ever since then I have looked at what some people charge for certain things and almost hoped for a recession. This country has just become rich ripping each other off. This cycle will clear out all of this crap or itleast most of it. The spirit of let’s just charge as much as we can get away with has got to go.

Bailouts are something entirely different. They actually are a means of people like auto workers not having to lower their price (wages) to get paid.

I want to start a new cable talk show called Liar Liar. I will parade one politician after another also CEO’s and the minute they start lying, I will play a “Liar Liar” song out loud. When someone tells the truth which will be rare, I will play a celebration song and have balloons rise in the air.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As I read this thread I see alot of people talking about deflation. My question is how do those of you who foresee deflation continuing also think the US Dollar will decline during a period like that, or Gold will rise?

It could happen but neither of these scenarios has never happened before.

As to the original post, I agree with most of you, this is just the result of a down business cycle. Everyone has to lower their prices to sell products during a recession. I have a specific example of price quotes I got for clearing and mulching a bunch of brush on my ranch last year. Daveys ( a national company quoted my $5500 and said it might take them two day. I then went to a local landscaping place who quoted $875 and got it done in 6 hours. When the Daveys guy called to follow up, I told him I had already had the work done, and what I paid for it. He went on to explain why his overhead does not allow him to be that cheap. I have also battled with the Propane suppliers who clearly have collusion on pricing going on. Unfortunately for the manager of the propane company he did not realize I am a commodities trader and I emailed him a chart of the spot price crushing his bullshit argument. Ever since then I have looked at what some people charge for certain things and almost hoped for a recession. This country has just become rich ripping each other off. This cycle will clear out all of this crap or itleast most of it. The spirit of let’s just charge as much as we can get away with has got to go.

Bailouts are something entirely different. They actually are a means of people like auto workers not having to lower their price (wages) to get paid.

I want to start a new cable talk show called Liar Liar. I will parade one politician after another also CEO’s and the minute they start lying, I will play a “Liar Liar” song out loud. When someone tells the truth which will be rare, I will play a celebration song and have balloons rise in the air.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As I read this thread I see alot of people talking about deflation. My question is how do those of you who foresee deflation continuing also think the US Dollar will decline during a period like that, or Gold will rise?

It could happen but neither of these scenarios has never happened before.

As to the original post, I agree with most of you, this is just the result of a down business cycle. Everyone has to lower their prices to sell products during a recession. I have a specific example of price quotes I got for clearing and mulching a bunch of brush on my ranch last year. Daveys ( a national company quoted my $5500 and said it might take them two day. I then went to a local landscaping place who quoted $875 and got it done in 6 hours. When the Daveys guy called to follow up, I told him I had already had the work done, and what I paid for it. He went on to explain why his overhead does not allow him to be that cheap. I have also battled with the Propane suppliers who clearly have collusion on pricing going on. Unfortunately for the manager of the propane company he did not realize I am a commodities trader and I emailed him a chart of the spot price crushing his bullshit argument. Ever since then I have looked at what some people charge for certain things and almost hoped for a recession. This country has just become rich ripping each other off. This cycle will clear out all of this crap or itleast most of it. The spirit of let’s just charge as much as we can get away with has got to go.

Bailouts are something entirely different. They actually are a means of people like auto workers not having to lower their price (wages) to get paid.

I want to start a new cable talk show called Liar Liar. I will parade one politician after another also CEO’s and the minute they start lying, I will play a “Liar Liar” song out loud. When someone tells the truth which will be rare, I will play a celebration song and have balloons rise in the air.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As I read this thread I see alot of people talking about deflation. My question is how do those of you who foresee deflation continuing also think the US Dollar will decline during a period like that, or Gold will rise?

It could happen but neither of these scenarios has never happened before.

As to the original post, I agree with most of you, this is just the result of a down business cycle. Everyone has to lower their prices to sell products during a recession. I have a specific example of price quotes I got for clearing and mulching a bunch of brush on my ranch last year. Daveys ( a national company quoted my $5500 and said it might take them two day. I then went to a local landscaping place who quoted $875 and got it done in 6 hours. When the Daveys guy called to follow up, I told him I had already had the work done, and what I paid for it. He went on to explain why his overhead does not allow him to be that cheap. I have also battled with the Propane suppliers who clearly have collusion on pricing going on. Unfortunately for the manager of the propane company he did not realize I am a commodities trader and I emailed him a chart of the spot price crushing his bullshit argument. Ever since then I have looked at what some people charge for certain things and almost hoped for a recession. This country has just become rich ripping each other off. This cycle will clear out all of this crap or itleast most of it. The spirit of let’s just charge as much as we can get away with has got to go.

Bailouts are something entirely different. They actually are a means of people like auto workers not having to lower their price (wages) to get paid.

I want to start a new cable talk show called Liar Liar. I will parade one politician after another also CEO’s and the minute they start lying, I will play a “Liar Liar” song out loud. When someone tells the truth which will be rare, I will play a celebration song and have balloons rise in the air.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

As I read this thread I see alot of people talking about deflation. My question is how do those of you who foresee deflation continuing also think the US Dollar will decline during a period like that, or Gold will rise?

It could happen but neither of these scenarios has never happened before.

As to the original post, I agree with most of you, this is just the result of a down business cycle. Everyone has to lower their prices to sell products during a recession. I have a specific example of price quotes I got for clearing and mulching a bunch of brush on my ranch last year. Daveys ( a national company quoted my $5500 and said it might take them two day. I then went to a local landscaping place who quoted $875 and got it done in 6 hours. When the Daveys guy called to follow up, I told him I had already had the work done, and what I paid for it. He went on to explain why his overhead does not allow him to be that cheap. I have also battled with the Propane suppliers who clearly have collusion on pricing going on. Unfortunately for the manager of the propane company he did not realize I am a commodities trader and I emailed him a chart of the spot price crushing his bullshit argument. Ever since then I have looked at what some people charge for certain things and almost hoped for a recession. This country has just become rich ripping each other off. This cycle will clear out all of this crap or itleast most of it. The spirit of let’s just charge as much as we can get away with has got to go.

Bailouts are something entirely different. They actually are a means of people like auto workers not having to lower their price (wages) to get paid.

I want to start a new cable talk show called Liar Liar. I will parade one politician after another also CEO’s and the minute they start lying, I will play a “Liar Liar” song out loud. When someone tells the truth which will be rare, I will play a celebration song and have balloons rise in the air.

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