[CAwireman]

Shorting opportunities for builders/banks…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/94640-great-shorting-opportunities-ahead-in-home-builders-banks

Despite rising mortgage rates and tightening credit, the share prices of US House Builders soared Tuesday. Some of the gains were of the nose-bleed variety, such as Meritage Homes (MTH) (+18.1%), KB Homes (KBH) (+14.2%), Beazer Homes (BZH) (+13.3%) and DR Horton (DHI) (+12.2%).

Traders are being told that rates will now come down (despite inflation and the crowding out in the capital markets as banks scramble to recapitalize) and credit will ease (despite special loan departments at the banks working overtime to squeeze their clients).

I think the market is setting up a terrific shorting opportunity in the residential construction companies, and in the weakest banks and dealers.

========================
I remember when there were a lot of folks on this panel shorting lenders and I think builders. Is that time again upon us?

[CAwireman]

Shorting opportunities for builders/banks…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/94640-great-shorting-opportunities-ahead-in-home-builders-banks

Despite rising mortgage rates and tightening credit, the share prices of US House Builders soared Tuesday. Some of the gains were of the nose-bleed variety, such as Meritage Homes (MTH) (+18.1%), KB Homes (KBH) (+14.2%), Beazer Homes (BZH) (+13.3%) and DR Horton (DHI) (+12.2%).

Traders are being told that rates will now come down (despite inflation and the crowding out in the capital markets as banks scramble to recapitalize) and credit will ease (despite special loan departments at the banks working overtime to squeeze their clients).

I think the market is setting up a terrific shorting opportunity in the residential construction companies, and in the weakest banks and dealers.

========================
I remember when there were a lot of folks on this panel shorting lenders and I think builders. Is that time again upon us?

[CAwireman]

Shorting opportunities for builders/banks…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/94640-great-shorting-opportunities-ahead-in-home-builders-banks

Despite rising mortgage rates and tightening credit, the share prices of US House Builders soared Tuesday. Some of the gains were of the nose-bleed variety, such as Meritage Homes (MTH) (+18.1%), KB Homes (KBH) (+14.2%), Beazer Homes (BZH) (+13.3%) and DR Horton (DHI) (+12.2%).

Traders are being told that rates will now come down (despite inflation and the crowding out in the capital markets as banks scramble to recapitalize) and credit will ease (despite special loan departments at the banks working overtime to squeeze their clients).

I think the market is setting up a terrific shorting opportunity in the residential construction companies, and in the weakest banks and dealers.

========================
I remember when there were a lot of folks on this panel shorting lenders and I think builders. Is that time again upon us?

[CAwireman]

Shorting opportunities for builders/banks…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/94640-great-shorting-opportunities-ahead-in-home-builders-banks

Despite rising mortgage rates and tightening credit, the share prices of US House Builders soared Tuesday. Some of the gains were of the nose-bleed variety, such as Meritage Homes (MTH) (+18.1%), KB Homes (KBH) (+14.2%), Beazer Homes (BZH) (+13.3%) and DR Horton (DHI) (+12.2%).

Traders are being told that rates will now come down (despite inflation and the crowding out in the capital markets as banks scramble to recapitalize) and credit will ease (despite special loan departments at the banks working overtime to squeeze their clients).

I think the market is setting up a terrific shorting opportunity in the residential construction companies, and in the weakest banks and dealers.

========================
I remember when there were a lot of folks on this panel shorting lenders and I think builders. Is that time again upon us?

[CAwireman]

This was all over CNN yesterday….

http://www.europac.net/news/peter_schiff_heres_why_home_prices_have_decline_least_20_and_probably_more

==========================
By: Gregory White
Source: Business Insider
December 30, 2010
House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we’re in a housing double-dip.

Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we’re actually through this.

But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.

From Peter Schiff in the WSJ:
With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.

Because of high unemployment, and little short-term hope for a jobs recovery, this darker vision makes a lot more sense, according to Schiff. He also blames the poor outlook on high levels of private and public debt and feels Fed activity to prop up the market is only delaying a real recovery.

===================

This adds to the “We’re in an RE double-dip” argument.

But, I agree, we have to wait and see. SD RE behavior is diverging from the rest of the country, seemingly because “Its different here”….

[CAwireman]

This was all over CNN yesterday….

http://www.europac.net/news/peter_schiff_heres_why_home_prices_have_decline_least_20_and_probably_more

==========================
By: Gregory White
Source: Business Insider
December 30, 2010
House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we’re in a housing double-dip.

Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we’re actually through this.

But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.

From Peter Schiff in the WSJ:
With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.

Because of high unemployment, and little short-term hope for a jobs recovery, this darker vision makes a lot more sense, according to Schiff. He also blames the poor outlook on high levels of private and public debt and feels Fed activity to prop up the market is only delaying a real recovery.

===================

This adds to the “We’re in an RE double-dip” argument.

But, I agree, we have to wait and see. SD RE behavior is diverging from the rest of the country, seemingly because “Its different here”….

[CAwireman]

This was all over CNN yesterday….

http://www.europac.net/news/peter_schiff_heres_why_home_prices_have_decline_least_20_and_probably_more

==========================
By: Gregory White
Source: Business Insider
December 30, 2010
House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we’re in a housing double-dip.

Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we’re actually through this.

But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.

From Peter Schiff in the WSJ:
With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.

Because of high unemployment, and little short-term hope for a jobs recovery, this darker vision makes a lot more sense, according to Schiff. He also blames the poor outlook on high levels of private and public debt and feels Fed activity to prop up the market is only delaying a real recovery.

===================

This adds to the “We’re in an RE double-dip” argument.

But, I agree, we have to wait and see. SD RE behavior is diverging from the rest of the country, seemingly because “Its different here”….

[CAwireman]

This was all over CNN yesterday….

http://www.europac.net/news/peter_schiff_heres_why_home_prices_have_decline_least_20_and_probably_more

==========================
By: Gregory White
Source: Business Insider
December 30, 2010
House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we’re in a housing double-dip.

Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we’re actually through this.

But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.

From Peter Schiff in the WSJ:
With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.

Because of high unemployment, and little short-term hope for a jobs recovery, this darker vision makes a lot more sense, according to Schiff. He also blames the poor outlook on high levels of private and public debt and feels Fed activity to prop up the market is only delaying a real recovery.

===================

This adds to the “We’re in an RE double-dip” argument.

But, I agree, we have to wait and see. SD RE behavior is diverging from the rest of the country, seemingly because “Its different here”….

[CAwireman]

This was all over CNN yesterday….

http://www.europac.net/news/peter_schiff_heres_why_home_prices_have_decline_least_20_and_probably_more

==========================
By: Gregory White
Source: Business Insider
December 30, 2010
House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we’re in a housing double-dip.

Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we’re actually through this.

But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.

From Peter Schiff in the WSJ:
With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.

Because of high unemployment, and little short-term hope for a jobs recovery, this darker vision makes a lot more sense, according to Schiff. He also blames the poor outlook on high levels of private and public debt and feels Fed activity to prop up the market is only delaying a real recovery.

===================

This adds to the “We’re in an RE double-dip” argument.

But, I agree, we have to wait and see. SD RE behavior is diverging from the rest of the country, seemingly because “Its different here”….

[CAwireman]

SD, YOY up, MTM Down….

“There is no good news in the report,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor’s. “Home prices across the country continue to fall.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/dec/28/case-shiller-test/

Metro area Oct/Sep% Sept/Aug% 1 year%
San Diego -1.5% -1.0% 3.0%

“Only four cities in the report — Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. — reported home prices that were higher in October 2010 then they were in October 2009. In San Diego, prices were up 3 percent year over year.”

Great time to sit and watch in Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, or Phoenix…..

😉

San Diego? Hmmmm……

[CAwireman]

SD, YOY up, MTM Down….

“There is no good news in the report,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor’s. “Home prices across the country continue to fall.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/dec/28/case-shiller-test/

Metro area Oct/Sep% Sept/Aug% 1 year%
San Diego -1.5% -1.0% 3.0%

“Only four cities in the report — Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. — reported home prices that were higher in October 2010 then they were in October 2009. In San Diego, prices were up 3 percent year over year.”

Great time to sit and watch in Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, or Phoenix…..

😉

San Diego? Hmmmm……

[CAwireman]

SD, YOY up, MTM Down….

“There is no good news in the report,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor’s. “Home prices across the country continue to fall.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/dec/28/case-shiller-test/

Metro area Oct/Sep% Sept/Aug% 1 year%
San Diego -1.5% -1.0% 3.0%

“Only four cities in the report — Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. — reported home prices that were higher in October 2010 then they were in October 2009. In San Diego, prices were up 3 percent year over year.”

Great time to sit and watch in Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, or Phoenix…..

😉

San Diego? Hmmmm……

[CAwireman]

SD, YOY up, MTM Down….

“There is no good news in the report,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor’s. “Home prices across the country continue to fall.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/dec/28/case-shiller-test/

Metro area Oct/Sep% Sept/Aug% 1 year%
San Diego -1.5% -1.0% 3.0%

“Only four cities in the report — Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. — reported home prices that were higher in October 2010 then they were in October 2009. In San Diego, prices were up 3 percent year over year.”

Great time to sit and watch in Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, or Phoenix…..

😉

San Diego? Hmmmm……

[CAwireman]

SD, YOY up, MTM Down….

“There is no good news in the report,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor’s. “Home prices across the country continue to fall.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/dec/28/case-shiller-test/

Metro area Oct/Sep% Sept/Aug% 1 year%
San Diego -1.5% -1.0% 3.0%

“Only four cities in the report — Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. — reported home prices that were higher in October 2010 then they were in October 2009. In San Diego, prices were up 3 percent year over year.”

Great time to sit and watch in Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, or Phoenix…..

😉

San Diego? Hmmmm……

[CAwireman]

Congrats! You are in good company!

[Author]

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