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carlsbadworker
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]But that’s not too much money on the sidelines. It’s not enough demand for products and services. Business are not borrowing and investing because they don’t forecast demand.
And remember from first year economics class, ability to pay is a component of demand. No ability to pay (no cash) = no demand.[/quote]
To be fair, no demand of money != no demand for product/service.
Remember, Whatsapp took only $8 million Series A funding to get to 200 million active users and 50 staff members.
If the world is now run by software, the demand of capital is in decline, the demand for talent is on the rise (see salaries in Bay Area). This is really a Silicon Valley v.s. NYC story.
ParticipantRich, thank you for the comments.
I’m not confident about my reasoning at all. That’s why I’m offering here for critique.
For examples, one of the way to separate buyers is first-time buyers v.s. investors in housing market; or trader v.s. holder in stock market. As itsdd pointed out, sentiments change, and I think it affects investors more. As a group, they tend to buy high and sell low.
Current real-estate price has already made first-time buyer hard to qualify or even if they do, nerdwallet survey shows 1/3 of them feeling less financially secure after the purchase. That would probably mean that investors are the main buyers now. The trend is very pronounced in a bubble country such as China (https://qz.com/1615596/chinas-debt-disease-is-infecting-its-housing-market/) but I don’t know where to get the corresponding data in US.
That said, I just said that massive decline (i.e. reverting back to historical median) in short-term (2-3 years) in unlikely. One of the wild card that I watch for is China. Given its global influence today, a turmoil in its economy can have severe international consequences, especially considering internal politics alone has a potential to bring turmoil in China, rather than the external factors like trade war. Xi should worry more about Hong Kong than Trump.
Participantcongrats!
Participant[quote=zk]Not sure I get it.
An American is free to praise his president. He only risks being called out for praising such a wicked and revolting human being. In other words, he risks hearing the free speech of others.[/quote]
Really? All the “political correctness” mob on the Internet is free speech as well?
Participant[quote=AN]Mortgage is inhibiting growth. Lets pay off everyone’s mortgage too. Free home for everyone. I’m down for that. It’ll definitely fix the homeless issue once and for all.[/quote]
Amazon charges money for goods they sell is inhibiting growth. Make it free to anyone as everyone hates Jeff Bezos anyway, including his wife.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Can those who paid for their collage out of pocket get a refund?
Can I get a refund on my mortgage?[/quote]
Sorry, you’re out of luck for being evil rich people who like saving, unlike the rest of us.
Participant[quote=flu]I’m not very religious…
But for argument’s sake…
What’s the difference between ridiculing people of Christian faith over a blog, hurling insults at such religion, and religious people, spitting and pissing on what probably matters a lot to them…versus hurling a bunch of stereotypes and a vulgarities about a say an Latino or African American or Muslim?
Is this sort of ridicule here on this thread *that* much different than Donald Trump’s ridicule and disdain for Muslims, or have we all sunken to an all time low across the board?[/quote]
Just read about flat-earth society and its celebrities. You mean I cannot ridicule them because it equals to racism?
ParticipantI guess that I am a contrarian after all because I didn’t see the signs that FlyerInHi was clearly seeing in July 2018.
The stock market was expensive at that time, but it got more expensive today and I am still executing my strategy of conservative market exposure bundled with minor holding of some “risky” stocks (that has been 35%+ YTD)
I guess at the end of the day, I would agree with scaredy’s comment. We mostly just project our inner belief into the outside world. I always don’t believe myself that much…therefore my investment strategy has always been prepared for shit to happen in either direction. It probably is easier and more lucrative just to blindly long, but I doubt that will help me sleep better at night.
Participant[quote=zk]
You’re a beautiful and gifted man, scaredy. I’m very happy to have access to your art and your philosophy.[/quote]+1
It’s very beautiful. Others on this thread needs to chill.
ParticipantThe biggest problem with pascals wager: there is more than one g-d in the world and they don’t agree with each other. Plus some are super jealousy when you believe in other g-d.
But on the positive side, life is too damn hard and sometimes you do need miracles from multiples g-ds, which can help you to create multiple conflicting stories to get through it.
March 17, 2019 at 9:26 PM in reply to: Piggington’s Evoloution-when will housing prices become the discussion again. #812113ParticipantTG, welcome back! I don’t know if you realize that your comment on piggington’s evolution is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
If you, AN and many others who are more obsessed with objective data don’t visit this site, then naturally, it will be occupied by people who are more willing to share their opinions and force it onto others.
The reason that politics is of particular interests is that it is mostly opinions, aided by the news cycle.
Therefore, I disagree that it was due to the fact real estate market has become boring. You first left the site because you already got your house and many other followed after 08. If the data nerds are still here, surely we can discuss many other topics for financial market in general. You can clearly see that Rich has never ran out of topics to write in his investment blogs.
But if none of the Rich type analytical people are here, what do you expect?
ParticipantWhat signs?
ParticipantI think you have serious investment strategy issue if you focus on picking up 52 week low stocks in a bull market. They are 52 week low for a reason.
Participant[quote=moneymaker]
Probably should have used 3.6% in above example for mortgage and investments for a doubling of disparity.[/quote]I am highly skeptic that mortgage was the reason for the disparity. After all, it is backed by an asset that is appreciating faster than inflation. I would think the mass “invest” more into depreciating assets such as car loan, credit card purchase (include home remodeling) and most likely student loans fit into this category as well. Yes, investing in yourself could be a depreciating asset especially if you go after “do what you love” type of liberal arts education.
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