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cabal
ParticipantMy 2 cents…
HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.
JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.
OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.
GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.
STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.
INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.
DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.
NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?
Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.
ParticipantMy 2 cents…
HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.
JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.
OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.
GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.
STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.
INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.
DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.
NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?
Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.
ParticipantMy 2 cents…
HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.
JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.
OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.
GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.
STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.
INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.
DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.
NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?
Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.
ParticipantMy 2 cents…
HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.
JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.
OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.
GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.
STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.
INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.
DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.
NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?
Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.
ParticipantMy 2 cents…
HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.
JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.
OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.
GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.
STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.
INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.
DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.
NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?
Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.
ParticipantDon’t waste your time with this superstitious ritual nonsense. For the past 30 years, I’ve tried everything, and yet the Cubs continue to fall short of making it to the big show. When the BoSox finally won the world series, my hopes were raised for a nanosecond. Then I realized comparing the Red Sox curse to the Cubs curse is like comparing my net worth to Warren Buffetts.
To the best of my knowledge, the Chargers are not cursed. They’ve won based on superior talent, execution and a little luck. Just hope Norv isn’t overly conservative with the game plan and they should win. Go Chargers!
ParticipantDon’t waste your time with this superstitious ritual nonsense. For the past 30 years, I’ve tried everything, and yet the Cubs continue to fall short of making it to the big show. When the BoSox finally won the world series, my hopes were raised for a nanosecond. Then I realized comparing the Red Sox curse to the Cubs curse is like comparing my net worth to Warren Buffetts.
To the best of my knowledge, the Chargers are not cursed. They’ve won based on superior talent, execution and a little luck. Just hope Norv isn’t overly conservative with the game plan and they should win. Go Chargers!
ParticipantDon’t waste your time with this superstitious ritual nonsense. For the past 30 years, I’ve tried everything, and yet the Cubs continue to fall short of making it to the big show. When the BoSox finally won the world series, my hopes were raised for a nanosecond. Then I realized comparing the Red Sox curse to the Cubs curse is like comparing my net worth to Warren Buffetts.
To the best of my knowledge, the Chargers are not cursed. They’ve won based on superior talent, execution and a little luck. Just hope Norv isn’t overly conservative with the game plan and they should win. Go Chargers!
ParticipantDon’t waste your time with this superstitious ritual nonsense. For the past 30 years, I’ve tried everything, and yet the Cubs continue to fall short of making it to the big show. When the BoSox finally won the world series, my hopes were raised for a nanosecond. Then I realized comparing the Red Sox curse to the Cubs curse is like comparing my net worth to Warren Buffetts.
To the best of my knowledge, the Chargers are not cursed. They’ve won based on superior talent, execution and a little luck. Just hope Norv isn’t overly conservative with the game plan and they should win. Go Chargers!
ParticipantDon’t waste your time with this superstitious ritual nonsense. For the past 30 years, I’ve tried everything, and yet the Cubs continue to fall short of making it to the big show. When the BoSox finally won the world series, my hopes were raised for a nanosecond. Then I realized comparing the Red Sox curse to the Cubs curse is like comparing my net worth to Warren Buffetts.
To the best of my knowledge, the Chargers are not cursed. They’ve won based on superior talent, execution and a little luck. Just hope Norv isn’t overly conservative with the game plan and they should win. Go Chargers!
ParticipantWow, what a train wreck. Under these extreme circumstances, they should take advantage of their presumed non-resource loan and give the Sherry Lane house back to the bank as his income is probably insufficient and unreliable. Second, immediately engage in the inevitable, protracted process of securing a rental home since their credit is heavily damaged. In parallel, negotiate with the bank to rent back the Sherry Lane house at a greatly reduced rate. Third, jointly make a damn budget and provision for savings, both personal and college.
I agree the apparent facts make this couple look incredibly foolish. There is no plausible explanation for buying the Sherry Lane (other than greed/stupidity) while they waited for the La Cresta to be completed. Why didn’t they just rent? Building the 1.5M La Cresta home on 180K peak income is an incredible gamble, but not uncommon during peak bubble years. Back in 2007 when homes peaked, many thought home prices would simply level off, or perhaps drop 10% tops (Piggs being the exception).
With every tragic story, there are always hidden facts or a sequence of unplanned events that lead to the eventual outcome. Who knows what is involved in the other half of this story. Under extreme stress some folks are able to focus and execute, while others simply freeze up with analysis paralysis. Here’s a hypothetical question. Let say in 2007, they decided to back out of construction, but have already consumed a portion of the construction loan. Is this even possible and what losses and liabilities are involved ?
ParticipantWow, what a train wreck. Under these extreme circumstances, they should take advantage of their presumed non-resource loan and give the Sherry Lane house back to the bank as his income is probably insufficient and unreliable. Second, immediately engage in the inevitable, protracted process of securing a rental home since their credit is heavily damaged. In parallel, negotiate with the bank to rent back the Sherry Lane house at a greatly reduced rate. Third, jointly make a damn budget and provision for savings, both personal and college.
I agree the apparent facts make this couple look incredibly foolish. There is no plausible explanation for buying the Sherry Lane (other than greed/stupidity) while they waited for the La Cresta to be completed. Why didn’t they just rent? Building the 1.5M La Cresta home on 180K peak income is an incredible gamble, but not uncommon during peak bubble years. Back in 2007 when homes peaked, many thought home prices would simply level off, or perhaps drop 10% tops (Piggs being the exception).
With every tragic story, there are always hidden facts or a sequence of unplanned events that lead to the eventual outcome. Who knows what is involved in the other half of this story. Under extreme stress some folks are able to focus and execute, while others simply freeze up with analysis paralysis. Here’s a hypothetical question. Let say in 2007, they decided to back out of construction, but have already consumed a portion of the construction loan. Is this even possible and what losses and liabilities are involved ?
ParticipantWow, what a train wreck. Under these extreme circumstances, they should take advantage of their presumed non-resource loan and give the Sherry Lane house back to the bank as his income is probably insufficient and unreliable. Second, immediately engage in the inevitable, protracted process of securing a rental home since their credit is heavily damaged. In parallel, negotiate with the bank to rent back the Sherry Lane house at a greatly reduced rate. Third, jointly make a damn budget and provision for savings, both personal and college.
I agree the apparent facts make this couple look incredibly foolish. There is no plausible explanation for buying the Sherry Lane (other than greed/stupidity) while they waited for the La Cresta to be completed. Why didn’t they just rent? Building the 1.5M La Cresta home on 180K peak income is an incredible gamble, but not uncommon during peak bubble years. Back in 2007 when homes peaked, many thought home prices would simply level off, or perhaps drop 10% tops (Piggs being the exception).
With every tragic story, there are always hidden facts or a sequence of unplanned events that lead to the eventual outcome. Who knows what is involved in the other half of this story. Under extreme stress some folks are able to focus and execute, while others simply freeze up with analysis paralysis. Here’s a hypothetical question. Let say in 2007, they decided to back out of construction, but have already consumed a portion of the construction loan. Is this even possible and what losses and liabilities are involved ?
ParticipantWow, what a train wreck. Under these extreme circumstances, they should take advantage of their presumed non-resource loan and give the Sherry Lane house back to the bank as his income is probably insufficient and unreliable. Second, immediately engage in the inevitable, protracted process of securing a rental home since their credit is heavily damaged. In parallel, negotiate with the bank to rent back the Sherry Lane house at a greatly reduced rate. Third, jointly make a damn budget and provision for savings, both personal and college.
I agree the apparent facts make this couple look incredibly foolish. There is no plausible explanation for buying the Sherry Lane (other than greed/stupidity) while they waited for the La Cresta to be completed. Why didn’t they just rent? Building the 1.5M La Cresta home on 180K peak income is an incredible gamble, but not uncommon during peak bubble years. Back in 2007 when homes peaked, many thought home prices would simply level off, or perhaps drop 10% tops (Piggs being the exception).
With every tragic story, there are always hidden facts or a sequence of unplanned events that lead to the eventual outcome. Who knows what is involved in the other half of this story. Under extreme stress some folks are able to focus and execute, while others simply freeze up with analysis paralysis. Here’s a hypothetical question. Let say in 2007, they decided to back out of construction, but have already consumed a portion of the construction loan. Is this even possible and what losses and liabilities are involved ?
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