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Different units of comparison are used in the market for different property types. Some property types are valued based on the price/SqFt of lot area; some are valued based on price/SqFt of building area; some are valued based on rent multipliers or occupancy ratios; some are valued on the bumber of rooms or the number of units.

Single Family Residences are valued using the sales price itself as the unit of comparison, with refinements for the various differences. There are several reasons for this, not the least of which it is the method used by buyers and sellers in the market. It’s not the only way to do it, but it has proven to be the most accurate and reliable method.

It’s been my experience that the people who rely on price/SqFt/building area for houses are mostly clueless. It’s an almost worthless unit of comparison for houses, except in markets where the data is so similar that there are no differences to account for. Of course, when that happens, the range of sale prices is so narrow that it’s easier just to look at them as a group and rank the subject property within that range.

By the way, you have your value vs. price definitions backwards. Price is what you pay; value is what you get. Once stated, price is a fact, whereas value is an opinion or estimate.

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I always assumed that an internet poster who would use a Vehicle Code section for a moving violation as their handle was a CHP officer or something like that. If so, I’m a little surprised you would ask how to commit mortgage fraud, which is a felony. If not, then that’s what I get for making assumptions.

A purchase of that house at $350k may or may not be a good long term bet, but it’s a sure thing compared to risking everything good in your life for a slightly better interest rate. I sincerely hope you reconsider, ’cause I don’t want to think of you like that.

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I freely admit to having made the mistake of thinking people would learn from their prior losses. I’m never going to make that mistake again.

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There’s not much to see, which is why i think some people are a bit surprised when the subject comes up. I don’t think the Samoan gangs are into tagging as much. They seem to be a little more low key, although it is my understanding that the local guys are tied in with the Bloods from L.A..

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Speaking of which, there’s an article today in the Union-Tribune about the Samoan gangs in this part of town. The article includes a reference to the murder of the Oceanside Police Officer.

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Eliminating the mortgage business is never going to happen. As long as there’s a buck to be made putting deposit and investment income to work there will be lenders to broker that capital out.

Getting rid of the mortgage (interest) reduction is a different story. That possibly could happen. If it did things would definitely change.

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Cashman,

I looked up some data for that area, and based on what I’m seeing I wouldn’t trust the Zillow estimate to be that accurate. A lot of homes in that size range have much larger sites than you have and are sited along that ridgeline to offer some views.

Zillow will work better for homes that are part of of large subdivisions that are built by the same developer. Tract homes. The less homogenous a neighborhood is the less accurate an automated valuation model like Zillow can be. Zillow basically can’t account for site attributes (including noise, view, topography, etc), nor can it account for additional improvements to the site or the home. For instance, a home might have originally been built in 1980, but if it was completely remodeled and updated to resemble a 1990s home those would usually be the more appropriate comparables.

From what I’m seeing you may have sold a year early but I wouldn’t assume the $600,000 figure is anywhere near accurate. The real number could be less than half that.

The other thing that everyone should remember is that Piggington’s is San Diego-centric. San Diego’s dynamic runs on a different clock than the L.A and O.C. markets. Those areas have only recently joined in with our trend.

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In answer to your questions about interest rates and prices in 3 years, obviously nobody here can answer that. If pricing continued to drop at 10%/year the current benchmark of $425k could wind up around $310k.

However, I think most people here would probably agree that if that happens the 100% financing programs will probably not be available because of the losses suffered by the lenders and secondary market investors. Interest rates probably will be higher. A 7% loan on $310k is about $30/month less than a 6% loan on $350k.

The upsides of buying at the lower price are twofold; you’re that much closer to paying the loan down, and there is the option of refinancing at the lower rate if/when interest rates come down again.

At any rate, this entire discussion might be academic. I question how sincere your landlord is about actually selling at the $350k.

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The area north of the city of Vista and east of Oceanside has some nurseries that specialize in exotics. The climate in that area matches your criteria, too.

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At the least, they can report the lien on your credit. They can also foreclose.

You don’t want to blow this off or postpone payment for too long. All that will do will make the amount go up.

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Good post.

I’d love to see some agressive litigation and even criminal prosecution for some of these guys. Strip them of some of these ill-gotten gains. Crime should not pay.

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If you’re prepared to ride out the cycle then $325k may not be a bad buy. It does represent a 27% decline off peak, and even the most bearish among us would put that at or past the halfway mark of a catastrophic return to trendline correction. You might want to bear in mind that similar homes were selling for about $150k in the mid 1990s at the bottom of the last cycle. It won’t get that low this time, but the low $200k range is not beyond the realm of possibility.

The trick is trying to figure out how long that cycle will take to play out. Is 8 years too long for you to stay in that house?

You want to keep in mind that if the R-T-T correction does follow through your position will very likely be underwater for a while. If mortgage interest rates go up during this period the trough might last for several years.

Personally, I’d hold out. There are going to be a lot of foreclosures in the Temecula area before this is all over. The only positive on your current offer is that interest rates are really low right now, and they probably won’t be as low by the time the market bottoms out.

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I think the statement is not without merit. Our local bubble would have never gotten as far as it did without the lack of credit underwriting.

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I know a lot of people involved in the construction industry and with only a couple exceptions, most of them have a fairly narrow view of the RE market.

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Like I said, I wouldn’t assume this house was ever worth the $1.9mil or even close to it. The prior sale is just one piece of data and all the other obvious data contradict it.

It’s a bit unlikely that a buyer who purchased the property at an auction intends to live there. There’s probably a flip involved somewhere.

Having looked over the attributes of the other sales in Glendale that came up in public records I would imagine that a broker would relist that property somewhere in between the $1.15 and the $1.9mil. If they split the difference they could probably consider themselves to have done extremely well.

There are probably a couple of MLS listings on this property at various price ranges from the last year or so. Auction is usually somewhat of a last resort for a lender. If you had your broker look the listing history of this property up you might get a pretty good clue as to what the market really thinks about this property.

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