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ParticipantIt’s all a compromise. The trick is in finding the compromise that you can live with. A lot of people who live in the outlying sanitized suburban areas have nothing but contempt for the “typical” people who live in some of the neighborhoods being mentioned here.
Much more of America is now like Escondido, El Cajon and Temecula than SF or the western areas of SD County.
ParticipantIt’s all a compromise. The trick is in finding the compromise that you can live with. A lot of people who live in the outlying sanitized suburban areas have nothing but contempt for the “typical” people who live in some of the neighborhoods being mentioned here.
Much more of America is now like Escondido, El Cajon and Temecula than SF or the western areas of SD County.
Participant“temecula is a suburb of murrieta and hemet. and they have their own employment centers; starbucks and pachanga.
and just because re analysts are using sd as a bellweather for national re conditions doesn’t mean they’re right to do so.”
Three things:
– Neither Starbucks nor Pechanga pay their (non-tribal member) employees enough to be considered part of the homeowner class. It doesn’t matter how many Starbucks or Carls Jr. they build out in Temecula, it isn’t it’s own economic center yet.
– If anything, Murrieta is a suburb of Temecula; Temecula has almost all the professional office space and major retail centers in that area of the county, and it does have all the medium and heavy industrial. It’s not enough to provide employment for more than about 25% of the residents out there yet but to the extent there is an employment district in that part of the county, Temecula is basically it.
Hemet and San Jacinto have always been somewhat isolated. Hemet is MUCH closer to Hwy-60 and Interstate-10 than it is to I-15, and the road to I-10 has always been a 50mph road with I think 1 stoplight on the 7-mile road between San Jacinto and Beaumont to the north. Compare that to driving from Hemet west to Hwy 79, south through Winchester and French Valley before getting into Temecula and I-15. Almost all the employment is south of I-15. I think someone in Hemet can get to San Bernardino and maybe even Riverside in about as much time as it takes to get to Temecula. The next time you want to start commenting on economic sheres of influence may I suggest you first try looking at a map?
– As for SDs markets being considered a bellweather, the reason it is considered that way is because the trends for subprime abuse, rampant specuvestor activity, completely unwarranted price appreciation and now equity flight and rapid price declines all started here. The analysts first started calling SD the epicenter of these trends 3 years ago, and the events that have taken place here during the interim have certainly proven ALL those calls to be correct.
Conversely, you don’t seem to have anything to back up your claim that it’s not happening here or that we’re going to sit this RE recession out. That is, besides your apparently wishful thinking.
From your comments I have developed an opinion that your exposure to price declines is much higher than you’d like. Sorry ’bout that, but if you’d been following this blog for a while you’d have known a long time ago that this was always going to happen at some point and when it did there would be nothing to stop it.
Participant“temecula is a suburb of murrieta and hemet. and they have their own employment centers; starbucks and pachanga.
and just because re analysts are using sd as a bellweather for national re conditions doesn’t mean they’re right to do so.”
Three things:
– Neither Starbucks nor Pechanga pay their (non-tribal member) employees enough to be considered part of the homeowner class. It doesn’t matter how many Starbucks or Carls Jr. they build out in Temecula, it isn’t it’s own economic center yet.
– If anything, Murrieta is a suburb of Temecula; Temecula has almost all the professional office space and major retail centers in that area of the county, and it does have all the medium and heavy industrial. It’s not enough to provide employment for more than about 25% of the residents out there yet but to the extent there is an employment district in that part of the county, Temecula is basically it.
Hemet and San Jacinto have always been somewhat isolated. Hemet is MUCH closer to Hwy-60 and Interstate-10 than it is to I-15, and the road to I-10 has always been a 50mph road with I think 1 stoplight on the 7-mile road between San Jacinto and Beaumont to the north. Compare that to driving from Hemet west to Hwy 79, south through Winchester and French Valley before getting into Temecula and I-15. Almost all the employment is south of I-15. I think someone in Hemet can get to San Bernardino and maybe even Riverside in about as much time as it takes to get to Temecula. The next time you want to start commenting on economic sheres of influence may I suggest you first try looking at a map?
– As for SDs markets being considered a bellweather, the reason it is considered that way is because the trends for subprime abuse, rampant specuvestor activity, completely unwarranted price appreciation and now equity flight and rapid price declines all started here. The analysts first started calling SD the epicenter of these trends 3 years ago, and the events that have taken place here during the interim have certainly proven ALL those calls to be correct.
Conversely, you don’t seem to have anything to back up your claim that it’s not happening here or that we’re going to sit this RE recession out. That is, besides your apparently wishful thinking.
From your comments I have developed an opinion that your exposure to price declines is much higher than you’d like. Sorry ’bout that, but if you’d been following this blog for a while you’d have known a long time ago that this was always going to happen at some point and when it did there would be nothing to stop it.
June 18, 2007 at 3:51 PM in reply to: San Diego RE inventory has stabilized and begun to shrink = have we arrived at the bottom???? #60176ParticipantWe had about 2,250 sales of SFRs and condos through the local MLS last month. The total number of sales through for 2006 was 29,086; this is less than 2,500/month average. So far, 2007 shows to be running about 15% lower in sales volume than 2006.
Until the number of available listings gets down to the point where there is more balance between supply and demand I don’t think it makes any difference in terms of price stability whether we have 15,000 actives or 25,000 actives. Too many is too many; and it will be those sellers who are compelled to sell at any price, regardless of loss, who will compete hard enough in pricing to close the sale. Everything else will sit while those sellers await better days or a more realistic perspective, whichever occurs first.
Come on back with this argument when the inventory of active SFRs and condos hits 9,000 or so and we can BEGIN to talk about prices becoming more stable. Until then…..
June 18, 2007 at 3:51 PM in reply to: San Diego RE inventory has stabilized and begun to shrink = have we arrived at the bottom???? #60208ParticipantWe had about 2,250 sales of SFRs and condos through the local MLS last month. The total number of sales through for 2006 was 29,086; this is less than 2,500/month average. So far, 2007 shows to be running about 15% lower in sales volume than 2006.
Until the number of available listings gets down to the point where there is more balance between supply and demand I don’t think it makes any difference in terms of price stability whether we have 15,000 actives or 25,000 actives. Too many is too many; and it will be those sellers who are compelled to sell at any price, regardless of loss, who will compete hard enough in pricing to close the sale. Everything else will sit while those sellers await better days or a more realistic perspective, whichever occurs first.
Come on back with this argument when the inventory of active SFRs and condos hits 9,000 or so and we can BEGIN to talk about prices becoming more stable. Until then…..
ParticipantI’d say that bust and bubble are reciprocals. If we define a bubble as a trend exceeding that standard deviation, then a bust of that bubble would also consist of a trend exceeding that standard deviation.
Right now I think most people would tag that standard level of deviation at about 25% or so above or below that long term trend. But ultimately the terms “bubble” and “bust” will mean different things to different people.
ParticipantI’d say that bust and bubble are reciprocals. If we define a bubble as a trend exceeding that standard deviation, then a bust of that bubble would also consist of a trend exceeding that standard deviation.
Right now I think most people would tag that standard level of deviation at about 25% or so above or below that long term trend. But ultimately the terms “bubble” and “bust” will mean different things to different people.
ParticipantEscondido isn’t San Diego either, but it’s still connected. People live where they live mostly as a result of their employment. Temecula has very little local employment of the sort that supports making mortgage payments, which is why it is considered a bedroom community of the areas that do have employment. That includes the OC and San Diego, as well as L.A..
Actually, the traffic getting into Temecula is a lot worse to/from San Diego County than it is to/from Orange or LA Counties.
Inasmuch as increases in price work from the inside (relative to employment) to the outside and vice-versa for decreases, what happens right now in the outlying areas like Temecula and to a lesser extent Northern SD County is an early indicator of things to come in the central SD area. Rancho Bernardo, Scripps and other areas close to employment aren’t demonstrating the big decreases right now because of their proximity to employment. But they’re still connected and they are not immune to the larger trend. It’s happened before and it’s already happening now, albeit at a much reduced level compared to the more distant towns.
It’s all about alternatives and substitution. Temecula provides a lower priced alternative – most of those people would choose to live closer to work if they could afford it. Since they can’t they are compelled to live in an outlying area and pay their dues via commuting time.
The tourism angle is nothing new, but it means more to the people who work in those businesses; and most of those people are not part of the local homeowner population. If they own a home it most likely is in Temecula.
So Temecula’s performance is interesting not just from a trend watcher perspective, but also because it can fairly be called the shape of things to come for the more central areas here in SD County.
It’s already happening. Look at the trends all across the Hwy-78 corridor. The foreclosure and price reduction trends are lagging those of Riverside County but they’re still happening and it’s still spreading south.
It’s not different this time, it’s not different here, we don’t have more people moving in than moving out, and being on the coast will not provide immunity from an economic trend.
If you disagree, please show the data you’re using to support that opinion. “Everyone wants to live here” is an emotional plea most commonly employed by the REIC, not a thoughtful or supported conclusion that has any foundation in fact.
ParticipantEscondido isn’t San Diego either, but it’s still connected. People live where they live mostly as a result of their employment. Temecula has very little local employment of the sort that supports making mortgage payments, which is why it is considered a bedroom community of the areas that do have employment. That includes the OC and San Diego, as well as L.A..
Actually, the traffic getting into Temecula is a lot worse to/from San Diego County than it is to/from Orange or LA Counties.
Inasmuch as increases in price work from the inside (relative to employment) to the outside and vice-versa for decreases, what happens right now in the outlying areas like Temecula and to a lesser extent Northern SD County is an early indicator of things to come in the central SD area. Rancho Bernardo, Scripps and other areas close to employment aren’t demonstrating the big decreases right now because of their proximity to employment. But they’re still connected and they are not immune to the larger trend. It’s happened before and it’s already happening now, albeit at a much reduced level compared to the more distant towns.
It’s all about alternatives and substitution. Temecula provides a lower priced alternative – most of those people would choose to live closer to work if they could afford it. Since they can’t they are compelled to live in an outlying area and pay their dues via commuting time.
The tourism angle is nothing new, but it means more to the people who work in those businesses; and most of those people are not part of the local homeowner population. If they own a home it most likely is in Temecula.
So Temecula’s performance is interesting not just from a trend watcher perspective, but also because it can fairly be called the shape of things to come for the more central areas here in SD County.
It’s already happening. Look at the trends all across the Hwy-78 corridor. The foreclosure and price reduction trends are lagging those of Riverside County but they’re still happening and it’s still spreading south.
It’s not different this time, it’s not different here, we don’t have more people moving in than moving out, and being on the coast will not provide immunity from an economic trend.
If you disagree, please show the data you’re using to support that opinion. “Everyone wants to live here” is an emotional plea most commonly employed by the REIC, not a thoughtful or supported conclusion that has any foundation in fact.
ParticipantShort of hiring city landscapers and water trucks to drive down the streets and hose those lawns off I don’t see how you’re going to compel people to care for their landscaping. The HOAs can do it to a limited extent, but really, the effects of a $50/month fine can largely be ignored by an offsite owner.
Probably better if the neighbors get together and put some effort into their neighborhood.
ParticipantShort of hiring city landscapers and water trucks to drive down the streets and hose those lawns off I don’t see how you’re going to compel people to care for their landscaping. The HOAs can do it to a limited extent, but really, the effects of a $50/month fine can largely be ignored by an offsite owner.
Probably better if the neighbors get together and put some effort into their neighborhood.
ParticipantThe complaints of the effects of development are common to every area of the nation with such development – and those areas are many. If you want the quiet little community you should go in seek of it, cause it won’t occur anywhere around here.
Being happy is a state of mind – you can find peace and tranquility in most any environment if you can exercise the mental discipline to tune out the distractions.
ParticipantThe complaints of the effects of development are common to every area of the nation with such development – and those areas are many. If you want the quiet little community you should go in seek of it, cause it won’t occur anywhere around here.
Being happy is a state of mind – you can find peace and tranquility in most any environment if you can exercise the mental discipline to tune out the distractions.
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