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ParticipantHomeownership represents a sign of success and stability in our society. It provides most people with emotional rewards that go beyond bragging rights at work. Billions of dollars in advertising are spent encouraging us to consume, and housing is the largest consumption we can make.
A person has to have a tremendous sense of self to voluntarily put those social pressures aside and sit on the sidelines while waiting for the market to correct. It takes a certain perverse nature to go out of your way to look for the data and viewpoints that contradict the messages being thrown at you from the advertisers, your friends, family and peers.
Most people don’t yet have that sense of urgency – a lot of the sellers are selling not because they think it’s a good choice but because they are compelled to sell. They feel shamed to have “failed” and do not see this as the better alternative.
The people here at Piggington’s are not normal people (sorry guys). We shouldn’t lose sight of that fact and think that everyone is seeing the same picture we’re seeing. For some people, the NAR line always applies:
“Now is a great time to buy real estate.”
ParticipantI have no doubt that most of the new home purchases do represent move-up transactions for those buyers who generated equity via owning appreciating assets during the first half of this decade. However, I also see an overwhelming percentage of purchases relied upon 80/20 financing and ARMS. I take that to mean that many of those buyers had no significant equity to transfer to the new purchases. They didn’t all parlay their equity into stock purchases. I think a lot of these people just spent that equity of Hummers and plasmas.
I wonder how many of the Beemers, Hummers and Range Rovers driving around town were bought with home equity rather than actual income.
ParticipantI have no doubt that most of the new home purchases do represent move-up transactions for those buyers who generated equity via owning appreciating assets during the first half of this decade. However, I also see an overwhelming percentage of purchases relied upon 80/20 financing and ARMS. I take that to mean that many of those buyers had no significant equity to transfer to the new purchases. They didn’t all parlay their equity into stock purchases. I think a lot of these people just spent that equity of Hummers and plasmas.
I wonder how many of the Beemers, Hummers and Range Rovers driving around town were bought with home equity rather than actual income.
June 19, 2007 at 1:17 PM in reply to: 4S Evergreen 3000+ sq/ft beginning at $800K = sold out. #60483ParticipantCompared to areas farther north, 4s still has a great location relative to employment. I never would have expected it to be among the initial wave of losers. It’s “Temecula day” will eventually come, I just don’t expect to see it for at least another year, maybe 2 or 3.
Carmel Valley is even more convenience to employment, so I think CV will hold out longer than that.
June 19, 2007 at 1:17 PM in reply to: 4S Evergreen 3000+ sq/ft beginning at $800K = sold out. #60516ParticipantCompared to areas farther north, 4s still has a great location relative to employment. I never would have expected it to be among the initial wave of losers. It’s “Temecula day” will eventually come, I just don’t expect to see it for at least another year, maybe 2 or 3.
Carmel Valley is even more convenience to employment, so I think CV will hold out longer than that.
June 19, 2007 at 1:10 PM in reply to: San Diego RE inventory has stabilized and begun to shrink = have we arrived at the bottom???? #60479ParticipantThe largest loss I’ve seen a lender agree to on a short sale is about $50,000. There probably are some that are higher but I haven’t seen any yet.
June 19, 2007 at 1:10 PM in reply to: San Diego RE inventory has stabilized and begun to shrink = have we arrived at the bottom???? #60512ParticipantThe largest loss I’ve seen a lender agree to on a short sale is about $50,000. There probably are some that are higher but I haven’t seen any yet.
June 19, 2007 at 10:58 AM in reply to: LOL: Create a poll for 300 “rich” people about their view on housing, then call it a study… #60439ParticipantWhat’s interesting locally is that the number of high-dollar home sales are in decline and the number of actives is increasing.
I still don’t think there are enough of “the rich” to have an effect on the region.
June 19, 2007 at 10:58 AM in reply to: LOL: Create a poll for 300 “rich” people about their view on housing, then call it a study… #60472ParticipantWhat’s interesting locally is that the number of high-dollar home sales are in decline and the number of actives is increasing.
I still don’t think there are enough of “the rich” to have an effect on the region.
ParticipantSorry ’bout that. I’m one of those geeks who has no social skills or sense of humor. Especially the dry wit type of humor. I completely missed the sarcasm.
I gotta go – my favorite game show comes on in five minutes.
ParticipantSorry ’bout that. I’m one of those geeks who has no social skills or sense of humor. Especially the dry wit type of humor. I completely missed the sarcasm.
I gotta go – my favorite game show comes on in five minutes.
ParticipantThere isn’t a single person on this board who doesn’t have the utmost in contempt for those individuals responsible for the fraud. HOWEVER there also isn’t anyone here who will sympathize with the people who were gambling on housing futures and who were knowingly agreeing to mortgage payments they could never hope to pay.
You can’t tell us that you didn’t understand that an Adjustable Rate Mortgage resets after a certain period of time or that those payments would vastly exceed your personal abilities to pay. I can figure out what a mortgage payment will be on a purchase price in about 20 seconds. There are so many online mortgage calculators it might have taken you 10 minutes to find one and figure out the same. You didn’t find out because you didn’t bother to find out. Whose fault is that?
It doesn’t take a private investigator or an outside expert to understand that racking 2 or 3 or 7 home purchases on a middle-range salary is not economically possible without a lottery-sized amount of risk, or that banks will not knowingly lend more than what a borrower can repay out of their earnings.
Whether you did it because you believe God wants the righteous to prosper or because you were being an agressive investor matters not. The fact remains that most of you signed on to purchase investment vehicles, sometimes totalling million dollars worth in multiple transactions; you were not just purchasing shelter for yourself and your family.
When my kids were 18 and were receiving all these credit card offers they all knew better than to get more than one card or to use those cards for anything other than emergencies. They didn’t need an outside expert to guide them towards making an informed decision about their use of credit. I have to believe on at least some level that all the adults involved in this tragic scheme had some understanding of what their limitations were and made conscious decisions to “be bold” and ignore those limitations.
Had your gamble paid off I’m pretty sure you guys wouldn’t be whining about the fraud it would have taken for that to happen, so I don’t have a whole lot of sympathy for your losses. Without a doubt, your agressiveness has contributed to the problems the housing market in your area now faces. If not for your ill-advised purchases its possible housing prices in that area might not have gotten quite so high. 1,000 units is a lot of inventory to soak up. In fact, you should give some consideration to the idea that you guys are partially responsible for some of the losses currently being suffered by other buyers who were competing with you when you bought.
I don’t mess around with investing in derivatives because I don’t understand them. You should consider the same. Next time maybe you should stick to what you know.
ParticipantThere isn’t a single person on this board who doesn’t have the utmost in contempt for those individuals responsible for the fraud. HOWEVER there also isn’t anyone here who will sympathize with the people who were gambling on housing futures and who were knowingly agreeing to mortgage payments they could never hope to pay.
You can’t tell us that you didn’t understand that an Adjustable Rate Mortgage resets after a certain period of time or that those payments would vastly exceed your personal abilities to pay. I can figure out what a mortgage payment will be on a purchase price in about 20 seconds. There are so many online mortgage calculators it might have taken you 10 minutes to find one and figure out the same. You didn’t find out because you didn’t bother to find out. Whose fault is that?
It doesn’t take a private investigator or an outside expert to understand that racking 2 or 3 or 7 home purchases on a middle-range salary is not economically possible without a lottery-sized amount of risk, or that banks will not knowingly lend more than what a borrower can repay out of their earnings.
Whether you did it because you believe God wants the righteous to prosper or because you were being an agressive investor matters not. The fact remains that most of you signed on to purchase investment vehicles, sometimes totalling million dollars worth in multiple transactions; you were not just purchasing shelter for yourself and your family.
When my kids were 18 and were receiving all these credit card offers they all knew better than to get more than one card or to use those cards for anything other than emergencies. They didn’t need an outside expert to guide them towards making an informed decision about their use of credit. I have to believe on at least some level that all the adults involved in this tragic scheme had some understanding of what their limitations were and made conscious decisions to “be bold” and ignore those limitations.
Had your gamble paid off I’m pretty sure you guys wouldn’t be whining about the fraud it would have taken for that to happen, so I don’t have a whole lot of sympathy for your losses. Without a doubt, your agressiveness has contributed to the problems the housing market in your area now faces. If not for your ill-advised purchases its possible housing prices in that area might not have gotten quite so high. 1,000 units is a lot of inventory to soak up. In fact, you should give some consideration to the idea that you guys are partially responsible for some of the losses currently being suffered by other buyers who were competing with you when you bought.
I don’t mess around with investing in derivatives because I don’t understand them. You should consider the same. Next time maybe you should stick to what you know.
ParticipantI dunno about most of the bulls being trolls. I think that most of them just don’t have a handle on any of the data or the mind-numbing analyses it takes to glean any meaning from the data to even have opinions of their own yet. They mostly seem to be parroting back the lines that the NAR and MSM were feeding them for all these years.
A lot of people made a lot of money by following that herd in the past. I can see why some of them are reluctant to recognize that over the long haul the market runs in tandem with the trend for wages and population.
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