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ParticipantAccording to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in San Diego County was $39,497; median household income for 2004 was $51,939. This represents a 24% increase in incomes over those 7 years. That’s a 4% annual increase that occurred during the biggest RE boom of our time. Assuming 2005 and 2006 added another 4% each year we’d be up to about $56,000 in 2006 but probably a little less in 2007. I don’t think anyone here would disagree that losing all those lucrative RE-related jobs is going to cut into our regional income averages.
Anyways, the difference in income between $39,497 and the extrapolated $56,000 for 2006 is about 30%. Add 30% onto a 1997 price and that would represent what it could look like if we assume the same level of damage at the bottom of this cycle. Obviously, less damage would result into a higher adjusted value, but more damage would result in a lower adjusted value.
Assuming a $211,000 average sale price in 1997, the income-adjusted equivalency adjusted price would come in at $274,300. Bear in mind, that may not be the worst case scenario, just as it isn’t the best case scenario.
The average sale price (attached+detached) reported in the MLS for 2006 was $617,074. 50% off of that would be $308,537, which is significantly higher than the income-adjusted “could be” value of $274,300.
Mortgage interest rates will play a significant role in pricing, and nobody here knows where interest rates will be by the time this is all over and all those losses are finally booked. Suffice it to say that any expectation of sub-7% interest rates probably isn’t reasonable at this time.
ParticipantAccording to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in San Diego County was $39,497; median household income for 2004 was $51,939. This represents a 24% increase in incomes over those 7 years. That’s a 4% annual increase that occurred during the biggest RE boom of our time. Assuming 2005 and 2006 added another 4% each year we’d be up to about $56,000 in 2006 but probably a little less in 2007. I don’t think anyone here would disagree that losing all those lucrative RE-related jobs is going to cut into our regional income averages.
Anyways, the difference in income between $39,497 and the extrapolated $56,000 for 2006 is about 30%. Add 30% onto a 1997 price and that would represent what it could look like if we assume the same level of damage at the bottom of this cycle. Obviously, less damage would result into a higher adjusted value, but more damage would result in a lower adjusted value.
Assuming a $211,000 average sale price in 1997, the income-adjusted equivalency adjusted price would come in at $274,300. Bear in mind, that may not be the worst case scenario, just as it isn’t the best case scenario.
The average sale price (attached+detached) reported in the MLS for 2006 was $617,074. 50% off of that would be $308,537, which is significantly higher than the income-adjusted “could be” value of $274,300.
Mortgage interest rates will play a significant role in pricing, and nobody here knows where interest rates will be by the time this is all over and all those losses are finally booked. Suffice it to say that any expectation of sub-7% interest rates probably isn’t reasonable at this time.
ParticipantAccording to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in San Diego County was $39,497; median household income for 2004 was $51,939. This represents a 24% increase in incomes over those 7 years. That’s a 4% annual increase that occurred during the biggest RE boom of our time. Assuming 2005 and 2006 added another 4% each year we’d be up to about $56,000 in 2006 but probably a little less in 2007. I don’t think anyone here would disagree that losing all those lucrative RE-related jobs is going to cut into our regional income averages.
Anyways, the difference in income between $39,497 and the extrapolated $56,000 for 2006 is about 30%. Add 30% onto a 1997 price and that would represent what it could look like if we assume the same level of damage at the bottom of this cycle. Obviously, less damage would result into a higher adjusted value, but more damage would result in a lower adjusted value.
Assuming a $211,000 average sale price in 1997, the income-adjusted equivalency adjusted price would come in at $274,300. Bear in mind, that may not be the worst case scenario, just as it isn’t the best case scenario.
The average sale price (attached+detached) reported in the MLS for 2006 was $617,074. 50% off of that would be $308,537, which is significantly higher than the income-adjusted “could be” value of $274,300.
Mortgage interest rates will play a significant role in pricing, and nobody here knows where interest rates will be by the time this is all over and all those losses are finally booked. Suffice it to say that any expectation of sub-7% interest rates probably isn’t reasonable at this time.
ParticipantAccording to the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income in San Diego County was $39,497; median household income for 2004 was $51,939. This represents a 24% increase in incomes over those 7 years. That’s a 4% annual increase that occurred during the biggest RE boom of our time. Assuming 2005 and 2006 added another 4% each year we’d be up to about $56,000 in 2006 but probably a little less in 2007. I don’t think anyone here would disagree that losing all those lucrative RE-related jobs is going to cut into our regional income averages.
Anyways, the difference in income between $39,497 and the extrapolated $56,000 for 2006 is about 30%. Add 30% onto a 1997 price and that would represent what it could look like if we assume the same level of damage at the bottom of this cycle. Obviously, less damage would result into a higher adjusted value, but more damage would result in a lower adjusted value.
Assuming a $211,000 average sale price in 1997, the income-adjusted equivalency adjusted price would come in at $274,300. Bear in mind, that may not be the worst case scenario, just as it isn’t the best case scenario.
The average sale price (attached+detached) reported in the MLS for 2006 was $617,074. 50% off of that would be $308,537, which is significantly higher than the income-adjusted “could be” value of $274,300.
Mortgage interest rates will play a significant role in pricing, and nobody here knows where interest rates will be by the time this is all over and all those losses are finally booked. Suffice it to say that any expectation of sub-7% interest rates probably isn’t reasonable at this time.
ParticipantI was reading on a mortgage broker blog the other day about the job market for unemployed mortgage brokers. According to what many of these people are posting on the blog they are widely considered to be the equivalent of toxic waste when it comes to getting a new job. There are very few opportunities in the loan origination field and almost nobody outside the RE field wants to hire them either.
There are lots of stories about sending out hundreds of resumes and not getting a single call. A couple people spoke of going to job fairs and being told straight out that the HR managers have been instructed to avoid anyone who’s ever worked in any capacity for a mortgage brokerage.
Even the people who are still employed are making a lot less money than they were a couple years ago. “Less” as in below 50%.
Just so you know what you’re getting into. Be prepared to first be told he can’t get a job, and then when he does get a job be prepared to be told he’s working for $10/hour at some service job.
ParticipantI was reading on a mortgage broker blog the other day about the job market for unemployed mortgage brokers. According to what many of these people are posting on the blog they are widely considered to be the equivalent of toxic waste when it comes to getting a new job. There are very few opportunities in the loan origination field and almost nobody outside the RE field wants to hire them either.
There are lots of stories about sending out hundreds of resumes and not getting a single call. A couple people spoke of going to job fairs and being told straight out that the HR managers have been instructed to avoid anyone who’s ever worked in any capacity for a mortgage brokerage.
Even the people who are still employed are making a lot less money than they were a couple years ago. “Less” as in below 50%.
Just so you know what you’re getting into. Be prepared to first be told he can’t get a job, and then when he does get a job be prepared to be told he’s working for $10/hour at some service job.
ParticipantI was reading on a mortgage broker blog the other day about the job market for unemployed mortgage brokers. According to what many of these people are posting on the blog they are widely considered to be the equivalent of toxic waste when it comes to getting a new job. There are very few opportunities in the loan origination field and almost nobody outside the RE field wants to hire them either.
There are lots of stories about sending out hundreds of resumes and not getting a single call. A couple people spoke of going to job fairs and being told straight out that the HR managers have been instructed to avoid anyone who’s ever worked in any capacity for a mortgage brokerage.
Even the people who are still employed are making a lot less money than they were a couple years ago. “Less” as in below 50%.
Just so you know what you’re getting into. Be prepared to first be told he can’t get a job, and then when he does get a job be prepared to be told he’s working for $10/hour at some service job.
ParticipantI was reading on a mortgage broker blog the other day about the job market for unemployed mortgage brokers. According to what many of these people are posting on the blog they are widely considered to be the equivalent of toxic waste when it comes to getting a new job. There are very few opportunities in the loan origination field and almost nobody outside the RE field wants to hire them either.
There are lots of stories about sending out hundreds of resumes and not getting a single call. A couple people spoke of going to job fairs and being told straight out that the HR managers have been instructed to avoid anyone who’s ever worked in any capacity for a mortgage brokerage.
Even the people who are still employed are making a lot less money than they were a couple years ago. “Less” as in below 50%.
Just so you know what you’re getting into. Be prepared to first be told he can’t get a job, and then when he does get a job be prepared to be told he’s working for $10/hour at some service job.
ParticipantI was reading on a mortgage broker blog the other day about the job market for unemployed mortgage brokers. According to what many of these people are posting on the blog they are widely considered to be the equivalent of toxic waste when it comes to getting a new job. There are very few opportunities in the loan origination field and almost nobody outside the RE field wants to hire them either.
There are lots of stories about sending out hundreds of resumes and not getting a single call. A couple people spoke of going to job fairs and being told straight out that the HR managers have been instructed to avoid anyone who’s ever worked in any capacity for a mortgage brokerage.
Even the people who are still employed are making a lot less money than they were a couple years ago. “Less” as in below 50%.
Just so you know what you’re getting into. Be prepared to first be told he can’t get a job, and then when he does get a job be prepared to be told he’s working for $10/hour at some service job.
ParticipantBanning and Beaumont are situated in a pass and are subject to some wind most of the time. That’s one reason they have all those windmills dotting the hillsides east of the Morongo Reservation.
It’s only natural that when the Santa Ana winds get going these areas would get even more wind that usual.
ParticipantBanning and Beaumont are situated in a pass and are subject to some wind most of the time. That’s one reason they have all those windmills dotting the hillsides east of the Morongo Reservation.
It’s only natural that when the Santa Ana winds get going these areas would get even more wind that usual.
ParticipantBanning and Beaumont are situated in a pass and are subject to some wind most of the time. That’s one reason they have all those windmills dotting the hillsides east of the Morongo Reservation.
It’s only natural that when the Santa Ana winds get going these areas would get even more wind that usual.
ParticipantBanning and Beaumont are situated in a pass and are subject to some wind most of the time. That’s one reason they have all those windmills dotting the hillsides east of the Morongo Reservation.
It’s only natural that when the Santa Ana winds get going these areas would get even more wind that usual.
ParticipantBanning and Beaumont are situated in a pass and are subject to some wind most of the time. That’s one reason they have all those windmills dotting the hillsides east of the Morongo Reservation.
It’s only natural that when the Santa Ana winds get going these areas would get even more wind that usual.
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