Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
Bubblesitter
ParticipantI guess the net impact of the insurers going belly up is a worsening of the credit crunch. The MBS market will not likely come back as anytime soon, premium to insure these thing will probably go up big time.
The only game in town for a long time may be conforming loans bought up by GSEs Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
Not sure % of homes financed with conforming loans in SoCal, it must be low. Net result, more downward pressure on home prices. Anybody hazard a guess at any other possible scenario?
Large downpayments with perfect credit become even more important. I wonder who will be in position to finance jumbos or any type of exotic loan? The GSEs may be the only ones standing with financial ability
Bubblesitter
ParticipantI guess the net impact of the insurers going belly up is a worsening of the credit crunch. The MBS market will not likely come back as anytime soon, premium to insure these thing will probably go up big time.
The only game in town for a long time may be conforming loans bought up by GSEs Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
Not sure % of homes financed with conforming loans in SoCal, it must be low. Net result, more downward pressure on home prices. Anybody hazard a guess at any other possible scenario?
Large downpayments with perfect credit become even more important. I wonder who will be in position to finance jumbos or any type of exotic loan? The GSEs may be the only ones standing with financial ability
Bubblesitter
ParticipantI guess the net impact of the insurers going belly up is a worsening of the credit crunch. The MBS market will not likely come back as anytime soon, premium to insure these thing will probably go up big time.
The only game in town for a long time may be conforming loans bought up by GSEs Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
Not sure % of homes financed with conforming loans in SoCal, it must be low. Net result, more downward pressure on home prices. Anybody hazard a guess at any other possible scenario?
Large downpayments with perfect credit become even more important. I wonder who will be in position to finance jumbos or any type of exotic loan? The GSEs may be the only ones standing with financial ability
Bubblesitter
ParticipantIf I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.
I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.
The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantIf I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.
I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.
The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantIf I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.
I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.
The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantIf I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.
I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.
The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantIf I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.
I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.
The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantAllan, You are probably right that the ROW will also going into recession if the US has a downturn. I do think there is probably smaller correlation than the past. I’m still holding off foreign equities thinking that there still is a good chance they will drop too. Shanghai exchange also has very, very high PE ratios.
Major foreign markets also experienced downturn during the last big US bear market in 2002 timeframe. I might try plotting historical FTSE, CAC, Asia exchanges vs DOW/S&P500 in 2001-2003. So much for diversification with broad foreign equity index funds. There are some good global funds that focus on more recession-proof companies, I’m digging around now for some.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantAllan, You are probably right that the ROW will also going into recession if the US has a downturn. I do think there is probably smaller correlation than the past. I’m still holding off foreign equities thinking that there still is a good chance they will drop too. Shanghai exchange also has very, very high PE ratios.
Major foreign markets also experienced downturn during the last big US bear market in 2002 timeframe. I might try plotting historical FTSE, CAC, Asia exchanges vs DOW/S&P500 in 2001-2003. So much for diversification with broad foreign equity index funds. There are some good global funds that focus on more recession-proof companies, I’m digging around now for some.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantAllan, You are probably right that the ROW will also going into recession if the US has a downturn. I do think there is probably smaller correlation than the past. I’m still holding off foreign equities thinking that there still is a good chance they will drop too. Shanghai exchange also has very, very high PE ratios.
Major foreign markets also experienced downturn during the last big US bear market in 2002 timeframe. I might try plotting historical FTSE, CAC, Asia exchanges vs DOW/S&P500 in 2001-2003. So much for diversification with broad foreign equity index funds. There are some good global funds that focus on more recession-proof companies, I’m digging around now for some.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantAllan, You are probably right that the ROW will also going into recession if the US has a downturn. I do think there is probably smaller correlation than the past. I’m still holding off foreign equities thinking that there still is a good chance they will drop too. Shanghai exchange also has very, very high PE ratios.
Major foreign markets also experienced downturn during the last big US bear market in 2002 timeframe. I might try plotting historical FTSE, CAC, Asia exchanges vs DOW/S&P500 in 2001-2003. So much for diversification with broad foreign equity index funds. There are some good global funds that focus on more recession-proof companies, I’m digging around now for some.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantAllan, You are probably right that the ROW will also going into recession if the US has a downturn. I do think there is probably smaller correlation than the past. I’m still holding off foreign equities thinking that there still is a good chance they will drop too. Shanghai exchange also has very, very high PE ratios.
Major foreign markets also experienced downturn during the last big US bear market in 2002 timeframe. I might try plotting historical FTSE, CAC, Asia exchanges vs DOW/S&P500 in 2001-2003. So much for diversification with broad foreign equity index funds. There are some good global funds that focus on more recession-proof companies, I’m digging around now for some.
Bubblesitter
ParticipantI’m still bullish on a couple sectors, but nearly completely bearish on everything. It seems very likely we are already in a recession.
I’m holding on to diversified oil and oil services companies. I’m still a believer that emerging markets (China, others) will continue to drive demand even during this recession. I guess the $64K question is whether the world catches a cold when the US sneezes.
I agree that some US export-centric manufacturers, Boeing, CAT, John Deere etc are in a good position with the weakening dollar. Strong food commodity prices may especially help Deere….more combines harvesting expensive wheat.
Some tech companies should do well, e.g. especially ones with good sales outside of US, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, etc. I’m scoping out small companies in alternative energy that may have defensible intellectual property that may make a breakthrough e.g. higher efficiency solar, biodiesel,etc. Famed venture capitalist Vinod Khoshla is now focused on these types of investments. Public ones are tough to find.
Still holding onto Gold via an GLD ETF, it is a larger % of my portfolio due to the run-up last year. I’m planning on using part of it for a down-payment for the next house…..in a couple years.
Bubblesitter
-
AuthorPosts