Bailout of Insurers

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Bubblesitter: Latest issue of Economist had an article on how Brazil would fare better now than in the past, if a worldwide recession hits. The article also mentioned, in passing, that other countries are less at risk than in previous downturns as well.

I think those countries that have a vested interest in both the US and the US consumer (think China and India) are likely to take the biggest blow. Look how hard the US toy recall hit quite a few Chinese manufacturers in that market.

On the insurance and reinsurance side, you are looking at companies like MBIA and Ambac that are virtually dead in the water if they don’t arrange a seriously large cash infusion and fast. Channel Re has admitted that their holdings are essentially valueless, and I would bet they are only the first to get caught out in this respect. If the reinsurance market starts taking on heavy water, it will get very ugly quickly in the standard and premium insurance markets.

[Bubblesitter]

If I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.

I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.

The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

If I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.

I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.

The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

If I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.

I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.

The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

If I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.

I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.

The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

If I had some more guts I would be looking for a short plays on all these insurers. All the bad news may already be well priced in already. I wanted to short the builders, financials mid last year but didn’t do it. I would have done very well.

I bet Brazil will continue do very well on commodities going forward. They are now huge producers of soybeans, sugar, metals, etc.

The growing strength of Chinese consumer may keep things OK in China. I was out in Beijing and Shanghai a few months back, saw lamborghini dealers, lots of Audis, big traffic jams. China is becoming a true consumer/car culture. I thinking the Chinese consumer may pick up some of the slack in event of US slowdown.

Bubblesitter

[SD Realtor]

Bubblesitter you and me both. I posted last month about the bond insurers getting hit and I REALLY wish I would have shorted them back then..

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bubblesitter you and me both. I posted last month about the bond insurers getting hit and I REALLY wish I would have shorted them back then..

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bubblesitter you and me both. I posted last month about the bond insurers getting hit and I REALLY wish I would have shorted them back then..

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bubblesitter you and me both. I posted last month about the bond insurers getting hit and I REALLY wish I would have shorted them back then..

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Bubblesitter you and me both. I posted last month about the bond insurers getting hit and I REALLY wish I would have shorted them back then..

SD Realtor

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I don’t know if the large insurers have priced this in yet. I might be wrong, but I think the reinsurance problem has just begun the process of unwinding. While the big players like AIG own their own reinsurance companies, quite a few of the other larger players don’t. If the reinsurance companies suffer from the same opacity as the banks, there will be quite a scramble to ascertain who is holding what in terms of bad debt and liabilities.

A friend of mine works for Intel, and was recently in China. He echoed what you said, and also mentioned how quickly the consumer culture has sprung up. They are apparently minting millionaires at a frenetic pace.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I don’t know if the large insurers have priced this in yet. I might be wrong, but I think the reinsurance problem has just begun the process of unwinding. While the big players like AIG own their own reinsurance companies, quite a few of the other larger players don’t. If the reinsurance companies suffer from the same opacity as the banks, there will be quite a scramble to ascertain who is holding what in terms of bad debt and liabilities.

A friend of mine works for Intel, and was recently in China. He echoed what you said, and also mentioned how quickly the consumer culture has sprung up. They are apparently minting millionaires at a frenetic pace.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I don’t know if the large insurers have priced this in yet. I might be wrong, but I think the reinsurance problem has just begun the process of unwinding. While the big players like AIG own their own reinsurance companies, quite a few of the other larger players don’t. If the reinsurance companies suffer from the same opacity as the banks, there will be quite a scramble to ascertain who is holding what in terms of bad debt and liabilities.

A friend of mine works for Intel, and was recently in China. He echoed what you said, and also mentioned how quickly the consumer culture has sprung up. They are apparently minting millionaires at a frenetic pace.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

I don’t know if the large insurers have priced this in yet. I might be wrong, but I think the reinsurance problem has just begun the process of unwinding. While the big players like AIG own their own reinsurance companies, quite a few of the other larger players don’t. If the reinsurance companies suffer from the same opacity as the banks, there will be quite a scramble to ascertain who is holding what in terms of bad debt and liabilities.

A friend of mine works for Intel, and was recently in China. He echoed what you said, and also mentioned how quickly the consumer culture has sprung up. They are apparently minting millionaires at a frenetic pace.

[Author]

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