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bubba99
ParticipantInvestment in Real Estate may become a good idean in the future, but not until the fundamental price to rental income comes back in line. Until you can rent out the property for a positive cashflow, it is a bad investment.
Foreclosures today are way overpriced. For the most part they go off at the existing loan value -which is still over market. Real Estate Owned (REO) the property that the bank has foreclose on and hired an appraiser to price, and a realter to sell may be better than a direct foreclosure, but still over reality. When the rental income comes in line with the price – that may be the time to take the plunge.
The days of rabid price home price increases because everyone sees it as an investment not just a residence are over. Without the free financing of the early 2000’s a home will just be a home. The equation of rent vs. buy will be forever changed to favor renting. There will be some who just want to own their own home, but prices will need to drop a lot from today’s REO levels to make the ownership equation work.
ParticipantInvestment in Real Estate may become a good idean in the future, but not until the fundamental price to rental income comes back in line. Until you can rent out the property for a positive cashflow, it is a bad investment.
Foreclosures today are way overpriced. For the most part they go off at the existing loan value -which is still over market. Real Estate Owned (REO) the property that the bank has foreclose on and hired an appraiser to price, and a realter to sell may be better than a direct foreclosure, but still over reality. When the rental income comes in line with the price – that may be the time to take the plunge.
The days of rabid price home price increases because everyone sees it as an investment not just a residence are over. Without the free financing of the early 2000’s a home will just be a home. The equation of rent vs. buy will be forever changed to favor renting. There will be some who just want to own their own home, but prices will need to drop a lot from today’s REO levels to make the ownership equation work.
ParticipantTo the extent that the junk Lehmann jost sold for 22 cents on the dollar are first positions, they just bought 30.6 Billion worth of RE loans for about 6 billion. Assume they foreclose on most of these, they own a large chunk of property. The question is what do they do with it.
If Dr. Doom is correct and the US Dollar declines 50% to 70% in value, Lonestar (the new land owners are geniuses). They just took the only real hedge against a colapse in the dollar by converting crappy loans into property at 22 cents on the now worthless dollar. The fed can screw up the dollar as much as it wants, but Lonestar has tangible real estate assets to be paid off in a 5 billion deflated dollar loan.
If I could buy property at 22% of peak price, I would be taking the same hedge.
ParticipantTo the extent that the junk Lehmann jost sold for 22 cents on the dollar are first positions, they just bought 30.6 Billion worth of RE loans for about 6 billion. Assume they foreclose on most of these, they own a large chunk of property. The question is what do they do with it.
If Dr. Doom is correct and the US Dollar declines 50% to 70% in value, Lonestar (the new land owners are geniuses). They just took the only real hedge against a colapse in the dollar by converting crappy loans into property at 22 cents on the now worthless dollar. The fed can screw up the dollar as much as it wants, but Lonestar has tangible real estate assets to be paid off in a 5 billion deflated dollar loan.
If I could buy property at 22% of peak price, I would be taking the same hedge.
ParticipantTo the extent that the junk Lehmann jost sold for 22 cents on the dollar are first positions, they just bought 30.6 Billion worth of RE loans for about 6 billion. Assume they foreclose on most of these, they own a large chunk of property. The question is what do they do with it.
If Dr. Doom is correct and the US Dollar declines 50% to 70% in value, Lonestar (the new land owners are geniuses). They just took the only real hedge against a colapse in the dollar by converting crappy loans into property at 22 cents on the now worthless dollar. The fed can screw up the dollar as much as it wants, but Lonestar has tangible real estate assets to be paid off in a 5 billion deflated dollar loan.
If I could buy property at 22% of peak price, I would be taking the same hedge.
ParticipantTo the extent that the junk Lehmann jost sold for 22 cents on the dollar are first positions, they just bought 30.6 Billion worth of RE loans for about 6 billion. Assume they foreclose on most of these, they own a large chunk of property. The question is what do they do with it.
If Dr. Doom is correct and the US Dollar declines 50% to 70% in value, Lonestar (the new land owners are geniuses). They just took the only real hedge against a colapse in the dollar by converting crappy loans into property at 22 cents on the now worthless dollar. The fed can screw up the dollar as much as it wants, but Lonestar has tangible real estate assets to be paid off in a 5 billion deflated dollar loan.
If I could buy property at 22% of peak price, I would be taking the same hedge.
ParticipantTo the extent that the junk Lehmann jost sold for 22 cents on the dollar are first positions, they just bought 30.6 Billion worth of RE loans for about 6 billion. Assume they foreclose on most of these, they own a large chunk of property. The question is what do they do with it.
If Dr. Doom is correct and the US Dollar declines 50% to 70% in value, Lonestar (the new land owners are geniuses). They just took the only real hedge against a colapse in the dollar by converting crappy loans into property at 22 cents on the now worthless dollar. The fed can screw up the dollar as much as it wants, but Lonestar has tangible real estate assets to be paid off in a 5 billion deflated dollar loan.
If I could buy property at 22% of peak price, I would be taking the same hedge.
ParticipantAside from the obvious wrong conclusions – like prices cannot fall below . . %, and the analysis is too weighted to the bubble states, there may be a grain of truth to the article.
It may be true that in small Kansas, Montanta, etc. areas the fall in price may be very small. Clearly the big bubble states like Ca, Fl, Nv all have a long way to fall, but a $75k 2000 sq ft house in rural Kansas is pretty close to its economic cost and may retain a greater percentage of its value.
But so what. The economic engine that drove the economy for the last 8 years is Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and this activity was centered in the bubble areas. The decline in the bubble areas will drag the whole economy with it.
ParticipantAside from the obvious wrong conclusions – like prices cannot fall below . . %, and the analysis is too weighted to the bubble states, there may be a grain of truth to the article.
It may be true that in small Kansas, Montanta, etc. areas the fall in price may be very small. Clearly the big bubble states like Ca, Fl, Nv all have a long way to fall, but a $75k 2000 sq ft house in rural Kansas is pretty close to its economic cost and may retain a greater percentage of its value.
But so what. The economic engine that drove the economy for the last 8 years is Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and this activity was centered in the bubble areas. The decline in the bubble areas will drag the whole economy with it.
ParticipantAside from the obvious wrong conclusions – like prices cannot fall below . . %, and the analysis is too weighted to the bubble states, there may be a grain of truth to the article.
It may be true that in small Kansas, Montanta, etc. areas the fall in price may be very small. Clearly the big bubble states like Ca, Fl, Nv all have a long way to fall, but a $75k 2000 sq ft house in rural Kansas is pretty close to its economic cost and may retain a greater percentage of its value.
But so what. The economic engine that drove the economy for the last 8 years is Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and this activity was centered in the bubble areas. The decline in the bubble areas will drag the whole economy with it.
ParticipantAside from the obvious wrong conclusions – like prices cannot fall below . . %, and the analysis is too weighted to the bubble states, there may be a grain of truth to the article.
It may be true that in small Kansas, Montanta, etc. areas the fall in price may be very small. Clearly the big bubble states like Ca, Fl, Nv all have a long way to fall, but a $75k 2000 sq ft house in rural Kansas is pretty close to its economic cost and may retain a greater percentage of its value.
But so what. The economic engine that drove the economy for the last 8 years is Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and this activity was centered in the bubble areas. The decline in the bubble areas will drag the whole economy with it.
ParticipantAside from the obvious wrong conclusions – like prices cannot fall below . . %, and the analysis is too weighted to the bubble states, there may be a grain of truth to the article.
It may be true that in small Kansas, Montanta, etc. areas the fall in price may be very small. Clearly the big bubble states like Ca, Fl, Nv all have a long way to fall, but a $75k 2000 sq ft house in rural Kansas is pretty close to its economic cost and may retain a greater percentage of its value.
But so what. The economic engine that drove the economy for the last 8 years is Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and this activity was centered in the bubble areas. The decline in the bubble areas will drag the whole economy with it.
ParticipantYou never mention what is his actual birthday and if he has a birth certificate what does it mention as the actual birthday.
If for any reason he catches the attention of the Customs/INS agents as he is re-entering the country, the inconsistent birthdays can become a real time consuming problem. In-consistency on anything alerts us anti-terrorist types to look very hard at the traveler for illegal entry, false representation, possible imposter etc.
Trying to get the naturalization certificate changed is possible if a) it is wrong, and b) if the date change does not trigger a change in status. Issues like how was he/she naturalized, via parents, or quota, or . . . can result in an “un-naturalization”.
My experience is that when people use in-consistent birthdays, they are trying to hide past deeds.
ParticipantYou never mention what is his actual birthday and if he has a birth certificate what does it mention as the actual birthday.
If for any reason he catches the attention of the Customs/INS agents as he is re-entering the country, the inconsistent birthdays can become a real time consuming problem. In-consistency on anything alerts us anti-terrorist types to look very hard at the traveler for illegal entry, false representation, possible imposter etc.
Trying to get the naturalization certificate changed is possible if a) it is wrong, and b) if the date change does not trigger a change in status. Issues like how was he/she naturalized, via parents, or quota, or . . . can result in an “un-naturalization”.
My experience is that when people use in-consistent birthdays, they are trying to hide past deeds.
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