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October 27, 2007 at 7:15 AM in reply to: 4 closure Ranch errr scratch that “Fire proof” Ranch = new nickname for 4S Ranch #92387October 27, 2007 at 7:15 AM in reply to: 4 closure Ranch errr scratch that “Fire proof” Ranch = new nickname for 4S Ranch #92415
blackbox
ParticipantAnything that keeps more inventory in the market works for me. Go 4s!
October 27, 2007 at 7:15 AM in reply to: 4 closure Ranch errr scratch that “Fire proof” Ranch = new nickname for 4S Ranch #92426ParticipantAnything that keeps more inventory in the market works for me. Go 4s!
ParticipantThere is a flaw to every single point on your list.
Nothing moves as a group. Some people will rent, some will move out forever, and some will stay temp. with families or friends. Not all the construction jobs will be newly created. They may be construction jobs that would’ve got eliminated when other jobs ended. All the homes will not be rebuilt at the same time. There are some homes from the Cedar Fire that have yet to be built for one reason or another. The owners may decide to sell the lot, and the lot may be left empty until the market for raw land picks up again. The new house blueprints may be caught in new zoning laws or codes, and be delayed.
The rental market is not tight right now!. Every investor that can hold out “until the market returns” is trying to rent their units. Besides, the rents would have to double to make sense at “today’s” pricing.Sorry, but 1700 homes (less than the Cedar Fire) will have spot benefits for rentals (that never would’ve found a renter until it was given back to the bank), and some added construction jobs, even a spurt of new and existing homes sales (after the insurance checks are cut), in the general Rancho and Escondido area, but basically, the market will rebound when pricing meets affordability. 1700 hundred families, even in one big chunk cannot change the housing market downward spiral in San Diego, and anyone who thinks so has no idea about human nature. People never move at the same speeds in the same direction.
ParticipantThere is a flaw to every single point on your list.
Nothing moves as a group. Some people will rent, some will move out forever, and some will stay temp. with families or friends. Not all the construction jobs will be newly created. They may be construction jobs that would’ve got eliminated when other jobs ended. All the homes will not be rebuilt at the same time. There are some homes from the Cedar Fire that have yet to be built for one reason or another. The owners may decide to sell the lot, and the lot may be left empty until the market for raw land picks up again. The new house blueprints may be caught in new zoning laws or codes, and be delayed.
The rental market is not tight right now!. Every investor that can hold out “until the market returns” is trying to rent their units. Besides, the rents would have to double to make sense at “today’s” pricing.Sorry, but 1700 homes (less than the Cedar Fire) will have spot benefits for rentals (that never would’ve found a renter until it was given back to the bank), and some added construction jobs, even a spurt of new and existing homes sales (after the insurance checks are cut), in the general Rancho and Escondido area, but basically, the market will rebound when pricing meets affordability. 1700 hundred families, even in one big chunk cannot change the housing market downward spiral in San Diego, and anyone who thinks so has no idea about human nature. People never move at the same speeds in the same direction.
ParticipantThere is a flaw to every single point on your list.
Nothing moves as a group. Some people will rent, some will move out forever, and some will stay temp. with families or friends. Not all the construction jobs will be newly created. They may be construction jobs that would’ve got eliminated when other jobs ended. All the homes will not be rebuilt at the same time. There are some homes from the Cedar Fire that have yet to be built for one reason or another. The owners may decide to sell the lot, and the lot may be left empty until the market for raw land picks up again. The new house blueprints may be caught in new zoning laws or codes, and be delayed.
The rental market is not tight right now!. Every investor that can hold out “until the market returns” is trying to rent their units. Besides, the rents would have to double to make sense at “today’s” pricing.Sorry, but 1700 homes (less than the Cedar Fire) will have spot benefits for rentals (that never would’ve found a renter until it was given back to the bank), and some added construction jobs, even a spurt of new and existing homes sales (after the insurance checks are cut), in the general Rancho and Escondido area, but basically, the market will rebound when pricing meets affordability. 1700 hundred families, even in one big chunk cannot change the housing market downward spiral in San Diego, and anyone who thinks so has no idea about human nature. People never move at the same speeds in the same direction.
ParticipantHey RO,
Unless you came out with a prediction using your model 6 to 10 ten years ago on how high real estate prices would go…..your current prediction is useless. You want to use logic, math, and fundenmentals to predict the downside when all that took a back seat on the upside. Market psychology and easy credit caused the real estate market to overshoot on the upside, and market psychology and tight credit will cause the real estate market to undershoot on the downside.
That’s my prediction, and it’s just about as good as yours, because your so-called model didn’t call the upside, and I don’t think anyone called the upside because earnings, affortablity, and logic stopped existing for at least 3 to 4 years…..
Nasdaq went to 5000 without any fundementals, and it went down to 1100 without any fundmentals. It finally settled at around 2500 because fundementals took over. Let me ask you something. Had any american market index ever dropped almost 80%? Nope, why…because a market index had never jumped so high in such a short period, and fundementals like PE, cash, margins, and inventory turns stop being taken into account.
That is why it is special, and your predictions are pretty much a guess backed with by normal market historical stats and data points. That’s pretty much useless until the undershoot occurs. It might end up going down only 20% from the peak when it settles, but it will go lower percentage wise if only for a short while. That is my guess, and that is exactly what it is… a guess. Too bad you can’t add market psychology as a mathematical constant in your equations. On the way up, part of the market psychology was that people had to buy this month because pricing would go up by next month. The reverse will not take place. Market Psychology will cause people to think that they can hold off a purchase (if they qualify for a mortgage) this month because next month prices will be lower……
In conclusion, your prediction is a useless as anyone’s else. Mine included. Only a look back after the correction has occured will the percentage of the downside be known. Go ahead and use all the historical stat models you wish. I am sticking to
“it’s special this time”. Only time will tell who was right.March 30, 2007 at 5:45 PM in reply to: Free gas for a year with the purchase of this house in Murrieta #48789Participant$680,000 is way, way too much!
Cut it in half ($340,000), and I’ll take it, and you can keep the gas.
I like to pay for my gas at the pump…..Not over 30 years.ParticipantYep. I thought I would get that reaction. Haha.
You guys need to get a life…Hahaha
Idiots
Actually good-spirited idiots.
Pavlov’s dogs……
Go ahead, roll over….
Good job!
ParticipantWow, Sdrealtor protecting he’s own. Way to go slimeball!
But really, besides slimeball putting he’s 3% worth, it is a real shame that a person, what seems like a good guy, lost he’s life to another dude that could not take responsibility for he’s actions. If you sign on the dotted line, you have to suck it up (Barring fraud and such).
My best bro is also a bottomfeeder agent of 12 years. I love him, but he’s still a slimeball!
By the way, he told me that there has been an absolute stalemate between buyers and sellers for a year now in LA County. He is starting to think about doing a different type of employment until things shakeout…So don’t take it personally Sdrealtor. I understand you are held in good standing by many in this blog, but your still part of the bottomfeeder class….
January 25, 2007 at 1:22 PM in reply to: “If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.” #44186ParticipantWow, this guy is really screwed! I bet he’d wish he was dead……
ParticipantHey
Formersandiegan, I get your point, and I do appreciate the fact that you sort of asked me the context in which I delivered the message rather then the actual message I tried to convey. I did appologize for calling him an idoit. Maybe I should stop from blogging a message in couple of minutes between sales meetings in the frozen wasteland that is Denver. God, I hate that town. I love SD. I just went to my favorite Real estate blog, and didn’t really plan to respond, but my blood reached my “idoit alarm” threshold. I did mean to say, however, that real estate prices in CA have gone beyond the rational. In fact, beyond any mathematical model that can be produced using data points of the past 50 to 60 years as a basis to determine where pricing should be considering incomes in those areas, and this……id…., i mean person, is here talking about how good the schools are in the their area, and how that will put a floor of support for home prices in the area, when the floor is probably in 2001 ~ 2002. By the way, thanks for shooting the messenger, you idiot! hahaParticipantHey Bob007, haha, you idiot! . Don’t expect Diamond bar to fall that much. Haha. Yeah, let me guess. Are you running out of land. Okay, reality check. In california, from 2003 to now, there has been nothing to support the increase in pricing. Geez, that’s why it became a bubble. Homes went into commodity mode. They are no longer shelter, home sweet home. They are a commodity right now like pork bellies, like nasdaq 5000. Geez. You take average income (in your area) X (2 or 3) and that should equal medium home prices in your area. Geez, I’m sorry I called you an idiot, but really, it’s time everyone hit reality. Your area is not special, not running out of land, and it’s not the schools. Once prices hit insane mode, like thet have been since 2003, all that goes out the window. It’s what people can afford with conventional down payment, fixed loans. The upward momentum is over now, and now there is no where else but down. Geez, Japan actually has limited land, and it’s an island nation (Nowhere to go), and they had 0% interest mortgage loans, and there real estate pricing has gone down 14 straight years. Geez, really, have we lost prospective. Long term pricing trends and home appreciations never, ever stay out of wack for long. They always go back to 2 to 4% home appreciation per year, accounting for inflation. That’s it. That’s all. No schools, no special land, no nothing. Medium income has to afford a medium housing price. SD has 37.5 ratio. I’m sure diamond bar has less. If you don’t like what your long term ratio is, sell, sell sell as soon and for as much as you can. You made a great profit out the greatest real estate bubble our generation has seen. Great going, but stop the insanity about Diamond Bar not getting hit as bad because of the schools.
ParticipantWell, first thank your parents for leaving you their neat spec home, and then do the snoppy dance, and then sit back, live off the interest and chill. Geez, 2 million, and the guy can sit tight for 4 to 5 years. What, you a sports or movie star….geez. By the way, on this site, there is no bragging in real estate. haha, ok, a bit bitter, but at least i’m honest. Enjoy you lucky idiot, and stop and smell the roses. You timed the market perfectly. Very hard to do. Do a victory lap, relax, and keep your powder dry, and most importantly, never, ever post on this website again. Haha. You lucky bastard….
ParticipantWow, probably in there late forties early 50’s (if not, double wow), and there net worth is $3000.00. I think I had a net worth of $3000.00 when I was 20. Oh, oh, guys….I just paid off both of my credit cards monthly charges in full. Just joined the deadbeat society. So sorry Chase and BofA. I will try harder to be a true american and carry a credit card balance forever…..NOT!
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