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bewildering
ParticipantI would not be surprised if 10 year rates go negative in the next couple of years. Just like Germany and Japan.
Participant>A typical $300,000 home in Dallas in a good school district can have $9-$13K/year in property taxes.
3-4% property tax rate? That can’t be right?
Participant[quote=profhoff]Is it a bubble? Listing prices in NCCSD are insane. I mean really. 30-40% above comps from mere months ago.
I get that inventory is tight, but it’s my feeling that if the stupid money comes in and locks in comps at these new prices, we are definitely in a bubble.
Soros is putting it into gold, China is facing hard times, and it sure feels like a recession is coming.
Meanwhile, many houses are just sitting and sitting and if you look on Zillow, it looks like the “pre-foreclosure” inventory is starting to increase.
Just saying…[/quote]
You are being a little hyperbolic. Your own example is not “30-40% above comps from mere months ago”. The house has a 17.1% increase from over 1 year ago. 17.1% is a big increase but nowhere near 30-40%.
You are also looking at the 92014 zipcode. This is most exclusive area in North County San Diego. It is hardly reflective of the “Listing prices in NCCSD”.
Gold looks more like a bubble than housing
http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart“Soros did come out earlier this year to warn of another 2008 crisis which didn’t happen and stocks kept surging higher. So maybe he’s trying to influence markets one way to make money off his trading positions.”
Where is your data for pre-foreclosures?
ParticipantMost of OPs comment seems contrived and ignores the major issue:
The negative effect of illegal immigration on “john legals” salary. Why pay 25/hour for the same work as 10/hour. Low/semi skilled workers are people that lose out most to illegal immigration.
All the academic research I have seen indicates that illegal immigration greatly benefits the wealthy, but absolutely screws the poor, especially the working poor.
May 31, 2016 at 7:34 PM in reply to: Which area in San Diego do you think will appreciate the most in the next 5-10 years? #798141Participanthttp://www.sandag.org/uploads/projectid/projectid_250_16887.jpg
This trolley extension might help West UTC, West Clairemont and East PB. Shame they cannot extend past UCSD into Mira Mesa.
Participant[quote=HLS]
And now, a federal appeals court is siding with the bank. The appeals panel says that the government didn’t prove that the bank had intended to commit fraud when it sold packages of home loans to investors.[/quote]The bank say they did not intend to commit fraud. That means they admit they were incompetent, rather than malicious. Presumably they will still be punished.
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=utcsox]It’s easy to run different scenarios using NY Times rent vs. buy calculator.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html%5B/quote%5D
+1 on the NY Times thinger.
Can’t speak to the specific properties you are looking at, OP, but generally speaking in SD it is most definitely not 2x as expensive to buy as to rent, once you consider everything (including the all important mortgage interest deduction). In fact the monthly nut ratio is not far from the lowest ever, per the second graph here: http://piggington.com/shambling_towards_affordability_midyear_2015%5B/quote%5D
The OP thinks he can rent a 2 bedroom townhouse in Pacific Beach for
1700-2000? lol. Maybe a 600 sq ft apartment in a complex on Garnet. But not a townhouse.ParticipantIt is not only North County. I keep an eye on my local area in Clairemont. There is really low inventory, less than a months worth. Decent places are gone in a week for crazy money IMO.
Is it a bubble at the moment? I’ll be curious what Rich thinks in his next update but interest rates are really low, and rents are extortionate. Demand is high, and supply is low.
Amuse yourself with this thread from 2011 complaining about San Diego being expensive
http://piggington.com/why_is_san_diego_real_estate_still_so_expensiveParticipant[quote=Balboa][quote=bewildering]
AFAIK the limit in San Diego is $562,350 not $417,000Are you buying in San Diego?[/quote]
I thought < $562k would before fully conforming, too, but it appears not. HLS will be the expert on this but, after looking into it, I think the hard limit actually applies to Fannie/Freddie and that other lenders just mostly fall in line. There are higher Fannie/Freddie limits in San Diego, but I can see how the higher limits would come with a bit of an interest penalty.[/quote] Odd. We got a conforming loan for a house in Clariemont, and the first amount was ~450K. It was explained to me that Fannie takes account of higher cost areas when determining the limit. And treats the loans just the same depending on downpayment. We put 10% down and got a good rate (at that point in time). How much are you putting downpayment? IIRC if we had wanted to put 5% down the limit was lower. This might be a good question to put on https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/ There are a couple of loan officers that answer questions on that subreddit.
Participant[quote=Balboa][quote=HLS]You had stated conforming loan amount, I’m assuming now that your loan is over $417K ? (Agency Jumbo)
I’m hoping that you are getting a ‘no cost’ loan PLUS additional credit towards closing costs.
(You will not get 3.50% above $417K…. If your loan is below $417K, something is wrong)10 days for inspection is not unreasonable.
Loan contingencies are a dangerous item for a buyer, without being 100% clear on the consequences.
A loan approval-with conditions-
is not a funded loan. Lifting that contingency can put a deposit at risk.Guidelines are guidelines, working miracles is relative.
With a bank/direct lender you probably will not see their
compensation, just your costs.Underwriters are busy and may not accommodate a buyer who agreed to needing it fast.
It’s very dangerous for a buyer to agree to terms that they have no control over.
Many Realtors have unrealistic expectationsI hope that it goes well for you![/quote]
Thanks for this helpful post, HLS — I looked back through the paperwork and it turns out that we’re “Super Conforming” which is not as cool as it sounds. 🙂 I didn’t know we’d be dinged for it, but we definitely are above 417k on this one and ponying up the difference is not on the table.
We’re making a good faith effort on our part as far as all the paperwork/inspections/appraisal, but we will not lift the contingency until the loan is actually funded.[/quote]
AFAIK the limit in San Diego is $562,350 not $417,000
Are you buying in San Diego?
Participant[quote=Balboa]Does anyone actually get this lowest daily rate? Right this moment we are filling out a loan docs and the stated rate is 4%. We do need a bit of special handling because we have shortened contingencies and may do a 21-day close. But we also have 20% down on a conforming loan with 800+ credit scores. Seems like we’d be good candidates for the best rate possible…[/quote]
Yes. People get these rates. But the rate depends when you got your quote, what you are buying, your income, and your lender.
I got my nice rates through some random bank suggested by Zillow. My existing lender quoted me 0.5% higher than the online place.
Participanthttp://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/daily.aspx
Almost at the 52 week low.
ParticipantI like north clairemont in 92117.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3528-Merrimac-Ave-92117/home/6238096
Is a little smaller than you wanted but might tick some of your other boxes. I think this area is good value for the location.
Participant[quote=gzz]Well you are actually gambling that rates will stay low or keep going down.
If you lose, you pay more for the life of the loan. If rates go back to the 4% range and you intend on keeping the house for a long time, the extra .125 will be about $125 a year in interest payments, gradually decreasing as the balance gets paid down. But on a typical San Diego house, about $12,000 over the life of the loan.
So it is not free money, rather you won a number of bets with banks. That’s great.
The process of doing the refi also results in a credit inquiry and a lot of time and hassle, though that depends on how complicated your finances are and whether you are self employed or not. I am, and it makes the mortgage process more complicated.
I’d need at least $1000 gain before I’d deal with all that, maybe $2000. Personally, if I want to bet rates will go down, there are easier ways of doing so with bond funds and ETFs.
In summary, the cash you picked up from banks doing serial refinances are no more free money than the money I made this year with some good stock investments. In both cases we made money with correct predictions about markets. It wasn’t free because we took on risk to do so.[/quote]
$12000 over 30 years. The extra $125 will reduce in ‘real’ value over the years. Plus, the average length of stay in a house is 6 years.
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