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bearishgurl
ParticipantI was studying results from the 2012 general election in CA on Sunday night. I noticed that only about 55% of eligible voters in the state voted at that time and CA’s 58 counties were split 29 Red (for Romney) and 29 Blue (for Obama). But …. most of the counties who voted R were rural or semi-rural and a significant amount of counties who voted D had huge populations (LA county being the largest with nearly 2.6M votes cast [~69% Dem]). Overall, 59.3% of CA votes were for Obama, 38.3% of the votes were for Romney and 2.4% of the votes were for “other” candidates (American Independent, Green Party, Libertarian and Peace & Freedom parties).
The wild card this year will be to see how many people (esp newly aged-in millenials) register to vote for the first time or finally decide to cast their vote after having not participated in elections in recent years as well as those who decide to re-register to change their party affiliation. This will be especially telling if there are little to no “protest candidates” on the ballot running for president to choose from.
I think 2016 is going to be a banner year for voter turnout. It’s going to be very interesting t see what will happen with the approx 10M people in CA who did not vote in the general election in 2012 but were otherwise eligible to register and/or vote.
ALL of the candidates would do well to plan tours stumping on the “CA public university campus circuit” this spring enabling them to energize hundreds of thousands of unregistered millenials in time to register to vote in the CA primary.
ParticipantTrump and Cruz are going to have to eventually “make nice” and “pool their resources and support” if they’re going to successfully stave off a “brokered convention” attempt from the “old guard.” Cruz was obviously heavily favored in the heart of the bible belt for the Republican nominee and that was no small feat.
Texas is a BIG state and its votes and delegates are nothing to scoff at.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Trump is not the type to make nice with people who dissed him.
Christie is more likely the running make. And Jeff Sessions might be attorney general. His in-laws and his business friends will get administration posts.[/quote]I think he’ll appoint Christie to the AG post if elected. Yeah, some of his successful business friends and contacts will get cabinet posts as well at least one of his relatives (sons?). He’ll find a position for them that doesn’t involve a lot of policy knowledge and experience. However, I think Trump would prefer the bulk of his extended family remain back in NY running the family biz.I also think he may cross party lines for 1-2 cabinet posts … if elected.
ParticipantI just got done watching parts of Carson, Kasich and Cruz speaking at CPAC. Honestly, in spite of all the bluster and “lyin’ Ted” animosity between Trump and Cruz we’ve seen of late, I see Trump ultimately asking Cruz to be his running mate about two weeks from today and Cruz accepting. I’ve only been paying attention to this circus for about ten days now, but I think that deep down Trump and Cruz have a lot in common and really like each other.
If Trump should get elected, I predict he will find a cabinet post for every . single . one of his Republican opponents … yeah, even “little Marco.”
Participantdel
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]BG, btw, what you complain about obamacare is not a feature of the law.
What you say it not likely accurate. Just remember that private insurance companies react to the marketplace and the situation is different everyday.Anyway, let us know when you find a candidate’s proposal to give you what you want. Not going to happen.[/quote]
FIH, can you explain further exactly what it is that you are discussing in the italicized portion of this comment?Participant[quote=no_such_reality]I understand the basic appeal at a visceral level, but do most of them not recognize every trait of their worst boss ever whenever he wants his way?
Do they truly not realize that “you’re fired” would be applied to them before the end of the first day if they ever set forth in a Drumpf business?
I’m genuinely curious as I don’t believe the majority are overtly racist or total suck-ups. Are they just oblivious and uninformed as to who Drumpf really is? Or like Drumpf, are they just a bully at heart wishing they could throw money and their ‘weight’ around?[/quote]This is “crazy talk,” NSR. All this huffing and puffing and posturing on the bully pulpit on the part of Trump is going to be so over if he should ever get elected. He has stated numerous times (when asked) that he plans on selecting a running mate based upon his or her “governmental experience.” After his inauguration (if that should actually happen), Trump will follow around the heads of the various Federal agencies in the Capitol and the Pentagon like a puppy dog for the first few weeks/months of his presidency and learn in-depth how “the cow ate the cabbage” (as they say in TX/OK, lol). He KNOWS he’s not a bureaucrat and won’t be able to successfully effect any change at all if he doesn’t understand in great detail how the helm of our great nation works.
People are reading wa-a-a-ay too much into Trump’s off-the-cuff statements made strictly for “effect.” If you’re really interested in learning his positions on the issues, visit his website:
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]So, BG, if not obamacare that you rant about, what else is causing you to lean to Trump?[/quote]I’m not “leaning to Trump” yet. I’m currently looking at ALL the candidates’ views on Obamacare and what they plan to do to repeal or reform it. That is what is in MY best interest at this time and the issue I’m most concerned about.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Bearish, why is Trump’s obamacare plan any better than Cruz’ or Rubio’s?
Trump plan so far is simply to get rid of state boundaries.[/quote]
I don’t yet know that Trump’s plan is any better. But “getting rid of state boundaries” will be HUGE! If those six major carriers who exited the CA individual market at the end of 2013 are allowed to come back into the state, they can sell PPO healthplans and compete with one another on price. Right now, we only have ONE carrier (BSoC) selling PPOs in nearly all of the 19 regions of CA and Anthem Blue Cross selling a PPO in a very few regions (SD County excepted). The other major carriers who formerly sold PPOs in CA (before the ACA was put into place) are now gone, forced out by Covered CA. Cigna currently offers a couple of Bronze plans on the open market in SD but by law, now has the same open enrollment periods as CC does and cannot take new customers until about October 15 unless they can prove a “qualifying event.”Only PPO plans (and indemnity policies) offer nationwide provider access. The other types of healthplans (EPO and HMO) have a “locked” network located in a particular coverage area and only offer coverage out of that locale in a true emergency.
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano]Gonna wait for the Feb data at this point, hopefully should have that soon.
As far as Zillow, my own experience is that their individual home-level estimates are meaningless. Can’t say about your neighborhood, but SD wide the trend still seems to be up.[/quote]Agree, Rich. Zillow estimates are meaningless. They very often use very dated info re: current size of dwelling and don’t take into account condition of dwelling (a biggie). I have found that Zillow also factors in nearby deeply-discounted distress sales, sales of unimproved lots and even “sales” between family members as “recent sold comps” to determine the value of a nearby parcel. The methodology they use is slapdash and stupid, IMO.
It reminds me of looking myself up on a popular “identity aggregator” online which charges the public for each record or “memberships” and finding on it two cities in which I have never resided in, lol …..
Participant[quote=ltsdd][quote=paramount][quote=ltsdd][quote=paramount]
The establishment is so fearful (of losing power) they are now resorting to identying Trump with Nazi’s, kkk and who knows what else.Again, I’m not a Trump supporter but this is ridiculous.[/quote]
How else should one supposed to interpret Trump’s failure to disavow david duke?
I found trump refreshing initially. But now he just looks like a mad racist.[/quote]
You interpret based on the bias you have.
I saw the interview and his response seemed reasonable to me – he basically had no idea what Tapper was talking about. How does he know that Tapper is providing reliable/accurate info? He said he knows nothing about white supremacy. Fair enough.[/quote]
We must have watched two different interviews. This is what I am referring to (right at the beginning of the video):
He knew exactly what tapper was talking about. And to declare that he “knows nothing about david duke” is a blatant lie.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/01/fact-check-donald-trump-david-duke/81146158/
[/quote]
Not to be defending Trump here, but he was very visibly tired (maybe even exhausted) when Tapper threw that question at him. Anyone with half a brain and knows how to use it knows that Trump has never had anything to do with David Duke or the KKK. A candidate can’t control all the looneybins out there who get on social media and say he/she would make a good president.. . . On Feb. 26, Trump held a press conference to announce the endorsement of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. With Christie at his side, Trump was asked how he felt about receiving Duke’s support. “I didn’t even know he endorsed me,” Trump said, clearly irritated by the question. “David Duke endorsed me? OK. Alright. I disavow. OK?” . . .
Trump didn’t want to give this ridiculous “endorsement” even a second more air time that it deserved. I honestly think that when Tapper first threw the question at Trump that it was truly a complete surprise to him and he was knocked off balance (after several days of getting very little sleep).
And I’m so done with the MSM bombarding me with irrelevant drivel they dug up which Trump might have been quoted as saying as far back as 1988 when he was simply floating the idea of running for public office but never did so (now I know why I turned in my cable box). The issues our country had back in those years and the issues it has today are night and day. Rubio and Cruz are too young to track back 25 years ago and blast on the air today what they were saying or doing back then cuz they were kids at the time. It’s not a level playing field between the Republican candidates in this regard. Nor do I CARE who Chelsea’s biological dad actually is (a moot topic at this late date) or whether or not Bill and Hill have had a marriage of convenience or simply “for show” the past 2+ or even 4 decades due to both Bill and Hill’s future political aspirations. If this is actually factual, than they are just one married couple among many millions, lol …. if they’re happy with their “arrangement,” I’m happy.
And at this moment, I’m still a registered Independent. I’m going over ALL the candidate’s proposals with a fine-toothed comb on what they will do to reform/repeal Obamacare and especially the Medicaid expansion portion of it which is a complete disaster. There are millions upon millions of 55-64 year olds living in states with expanded Medicaid/Medi-Cal who are very comfortably living on a reported $15K – $35K annual income and are also able to afford a reasonably priced healthplan on their own (without a subsidy) and HAD been paying their own healthplan premiums without fail until Obamacare swooped in, causing their longtime insurer to exit their states. This is ESPecially true in CA where many homeowners in this group are paying property taxes on an assessment equivalent to 1/2 to 1/10 of their actual property value. This group can easily live without public premium assistance until they reach the age of 65 and are eligible for Medicare IF the six major carriers who exited the state at the end of 2013 are brought back in to compete for business AND are allowed to sell policies (incl HDHPs) which cover their members across state lines with a HUGE nationwide list of providers.
As it should be.
The gubment has no business whatsoever dragging everyone in this group who signed up on the exchange into their “Medi-Cal dragnet.” Medi-Cal managed care plans in CA don’t even have enough providers to serve the truly poor, much less for those who can easily immediately access funds to pay a $5K deductible and/or a $12K OOP maximum annually. HOW DARE my gubment tell me how much I can and can’t pay and what kind of healthplan I’m required to buy (or in the case of forced Medi-Cal placement …. “join”) and subject my estate to repayment of all “premiums” from day one which I never used! I predict what boomers are left on Obamacare are going to drop like flies off of it in the coming year …. at least those who reside in states which adopted expanded Medicaid, do not currently have any serious health problems and who have any assets at all. Carriers participating on the exchanges are ripping boomers off on their monthly collection of our now exorbitant premiums which have only been artificially run up due to the existence of gubment subsidies (much like the cost of college has been run up in recent decades due to the proliferation of available student loans). The carriers now feel they can get away with 20%+ annual rate hikes due to lack of competition and because they think their members don’t feel it (exorbitant rate hikes) as much due to receiving a “subsidy” to help pay their premiums.
Whoever gets elected POTUS needs to repeal the ACA in its entirety or piecemeal beginning the day after they are inaugurated …. yes, even Hillary. To that end, I’ll help in any way I can.
Participant[quote=all][quote=flu]Yes. Get rich quick. There as many people that do… As well as many people that are perma-pessimists. Plenty of them on this board for example.[/quote]
Interestingly, San Diego is one of the incubators for ‘get rich quick’ industry. Several major players live and operate from SD.[/quote]If that is true, I want to know where they are getting RE deals today which are good enough to make money “flipping.”
And if the stuff they end up buying is in gross disrepair (ie completely termite-infested, etc) and the “flipper team” can only afford to put “lipstick on the pig” to make any kind of profit off of it, I wonder who is actually benefiting from these newbie flippers’ presence. Certainly not their sitting-duck buyers.
It’s pretty easy to hide internal termite damage from pest control companies.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]BG, if we don’t figuratively and literally build, then how do we increase wealth?
We need more people to grow sales and increase profits, broaden the tax base.
People want pay raises to live better and move up to bigger, newer, better, fancier. Government wants bigger city halls, courthouses and higher pensions. Maybe you don’t, but that’s what people want in general.
Sure, we want our individual bubbles, but take yourself out of the picture and look at it objectively.[/quote]FIH, if CA and its subdivisions need more revenue for “modernization purposes,” they need to put their legislative heads together and agree to repeal Props 58 and 193 ASAP and limit Prop 13 original assessments + 2% yr to the original 1978 resident-owners who are still residing on the same parcel today. All assessments of all other parcels with formerly-reduced assessments in accordance with these sections should be raised to FMV forthwith (as almost all other states do at least every two years).
It is grossly unfair to owners of parcels who bought in the last 20 years to have 2-10 times the tax bill of the owners of their adjacent parcels. Props 58 and 193 beneficiaries, in particular, do not in any way, shape or form deserve this gubment largesse at the expense of their neighbors and the budgets of the city/county they live in. These millions of property owners in CA (they or their tenants) whose assessments are 1/8 to 1/10 of the market value of their properties use just as much or MORE municipal services as their neighbors who are paying taxes closer to “market-rate assessment.”
It is also unfair that millions of CA landlords are allowed to rake in the dough every month on properties which cost them a mere pittance to hang onto, especially those LL’s who own multi-unit properties in high-cost coastal cities which can command exorbitant rents.
The original beneficiaries of Prop 13 whom it was passed to protect and who are still residing today in the homes they purchased pre-1978 should be allowed to keep their old assessments. They will all inevitably die off one by one and those properties could be immediately reassessed to market rate retroactive to the date of the last owner’s death.
CA doesn’t need any more population to tax. It needs to properly tax the HUGE population it already has. If Prop 13 and its progeny are limited and repealed, CA (and its subdivisions) should be fiscally solvent forever. Problem solved.
The way the “system” is now “rigged” in CA, the “rich” (and their families) just get richer and richer and all other property owners and the state, cities and counties are left with the bill. In other words, the families who have lived in CA the longest and bought multiple properties long ago and held onto them are the only families winning this game.
Participantflyer, the “old-timers” living near dtn Chula Vista may have been successful in keeping an inappropriate monstrosity out of their charming little downtown strip, but the same can’t be said for those mostly newbie homeowners in Chula Vista’s most distant annexation (over 12 mi from dtn CV). The high-density “Millenia” project will likely mostly be completed within the year …
… which is situated smack in the middle of lizardland and a well-known coyote crossing just south of Otay Ranch Mall (a stone’s throw from the infamous RJ Donovan Correctional Facility and Otay Landfill, lol).
Methinks the 91915 resident-cohort doesn’t really care if it is going to take them another 5-10 mins to get to a freeway (not expensive toll road) to get to work in the morning after this behemoth of a project is finally completed. After all, the vast majority of these homeowners who bought a SFR in the area live within 5-6 feet from their neighbor’s home, INCLUDING both side setbacks and do not have adequate clearances in their easements to successfully drive into their rear-facing garages on the first try, lol. As such, their “expectations” for a stress-free, uncrowded lifestyle are much lower than are Chula Vista residents’ expectations who reside in the older, more established areas.
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