[bearishgurl]

[quote=davelj]Looks like they added a crapload of value to me. Doesn’t even look like the same house. My question is how much they made on the flip given the costs of renovation and commissions on sale… they only had $140K to work with and that renovation looks pretty involved. But I’m not good at eyeballing the cost of major renovations like this one.[/quote]

davelj, looks like we’re in (simultaneous) agreement on this one . . . lol.

I WAS good at “eyeballing” the cost of major renovations at one time but the stakes are higher now. For example, buyers today “expect” double-paned vinyl windows, granite, a convection oven and flooring throughout (instead of carpeting, which is generally easier and cheaper to install).

I’m uncertain that these flippers made a “lot of $$” unless they are licensed contractors who got the mat’ls at VERY deep discounts. They obviously had a VERY motivated, efficient and competent crew, which they obviously paid.

[bearishgurl]

Premium lot. Appears to be a former longtime rental. Don’t know what the current comps are there but $575K (flipped) seems reasonable to me, given its premium canyon lot. The flippers seemed to have done all the right stuff to successfully market it for a quick sale, so yes, they DID add value!

The only question I have here is, “Was $140K `profit’ enough to cover all the materials, (very fast and efficient) labor, DIY labor (if any) and closing costs on both transactions?” I haven’t looked up “Fit Properties” on the DRE website but would surmise that the principal or one of the principals (or their relative) in this flip is the broker for “Fit Properties.” Otherwise, the selling commission would have been too high for them to make this flip pencil out (as opposed to paying only a co-broke fee).

Very nice “transformation.” Thanks for sharing, UCGal!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=AN]I never knew there’s a lifetime limit. Brian, how can your friend enjoy these new low rates if they got an ARM 20 years ago without refinancing?[/quote]

AN, there are lifetime low and high caps on ARMS (especially prime and Alt-A ARMS taken out prior to 2003).

These “ARMS of yore” followed closely with whatever index they were tied to … that is, most of the programs adjusted monthly (higher or lower) to follow a particular index (with a 1.7% to 3% “margin” added). Since an ARM holders payment was usually up to .07% of (+/-) the current fixed rate being offered, it made no financial sense to refinance.

[bearishgurl]

My personal experience with this group tells me that “Millenials” do NOT want to commute to their jobs and do NOT want to do yard work in their “spare” time.

This doesn’t bode well for the future marketability of SFR’s located on largish lots in the exurbia stix.

One thing I CAN say positive about this group is that they appear to have employers eating out of their hand because they are not afraid to VOTE WITH THEIR FEET! It matters NOT that unions are not the stronghold they once were!!

Boomers kept their heads down and stood in single file as “yes-men and women,” typically spent a good portion of the day on “required” brown-nosing, adhered religiously to all the internal rules and regulations and gave the appearance of cheerful acceptance of being docked vacation hours/minutes by their employer for coming back late from lunch. OTOH, Millenials have no problem routinely demanding job-sharing, flex time, copious leave without pay, loose-and-casual dress code (no pantyhose and ties in this group), headphones in their ears constantly, answering cellphones and texting on the clock, etc. If their employer doesn’t like their “idiosyncrasies,” the “millenial employee” will simply follow through in voting with their feet and employers are well aware of this.

I gotta hand it to the “Millenial set.” They have employers eating out of their hands, regardless of talent, skills or punctuality, because to replace the ones who “vote with their feet” with an experienced Boomer who needs a job will cost the employer dearly in the form of 3-4 times the health care premium of a Millenial. Especially in a biz with =< 50 employees. Yes, even if a Boomer with 35+ years experience in the field will work for "Millenial wages," they are still perceived to cost too much money to today's employer.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]Could interest rates fall to 2%?

Interesting question. I suppose they could if we continue to have slow growth like Japan.

Like I said before, I have a friend who’s only had ARMs for more than 20 years. He’s saved a lot of money. Those who wanted the “security” of fixed rates paid the price. Greenspan was right on this point.

I’m personally not making any bets on interest rates either way. But before you make any bets on higher interest rates as “a sure thing,” don’t forget that…

1) For the last 30 years, the trend in interest rates has been down.
2) Mortgage rates in Japan today are less than 2%.

http://www.topstockanalysts.com/index.php/2011/07/14/could-mortgage-rates-fall-50-from-here/

[/quote]

brian, its been 25 years for me (taking out only ARM mtgs). I feel I HAVE saved a lot of money over the years since I never had a need for “serial refinancing” (for a rate reduction) OR “cash out.”

However, since I believe I have a low lifetime cap of 2.7%, I’ll never see a low of 2% with my current mtg (assuming fixed rates ever go that low).

***

Happy holidays, Piggs! I’ve been “swamped” lately :=D

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdduuuude]Wow. Your shortest post ever. Nice work :)[/quote]

I find it odd that you post this, sdduuuude. I could name off a couple dozen Piggs whose posts are habitually longer than mine.

Does this mean you are on board with or agree with the substance or content of my posts since all you appear to have to say here is (“they”) are “too long?”

Or do you just have issues with your reading comprehension and/or attention span …??

LOL . . . ;=D

[bearishgurl]

If recent graduates did NOT take on student-loan debt, majored in a degree which is WORTH something to employers and chose to live in and look for work in a city/area which has companies who are hiring, their outlook is MUCH better than this story indicates. These recent grads will be able to buy RE in the next few years, IMO.

The students who graduated with voluminous student loan debt and even cc debt and/or who chose to get a degree in something which does not prepare them for a job immediately after graduation have put themselves into the situation they are in today, IMHO. It’s due to their bad choices every bit as much as (if not more than) a “slow economy.”

[bearishgurl]

FWIW, I won’t be ignoring any Pigg at present, REGARDLESS of their “idiosyncrasies.” I enjoy reading EVERYONE’s posts …

If any Pigg wishes to “ignore” me, GO FOR IT!! And more power to ya …

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Realtor]Dont see a rapidly rising interest rate situation just yet. Someday but not imminent.

Examine your grocery bill from last year and the year before and you are already being victimized by inflation. Pretty much any basic foodstuff has increased in price and not by a trivial amount. Go look at your sdge bill and/or your wastewater treatment bill (water) and you will see your rates have also gone up compared to years past. It is also likely that soon you will be paying an increased state tax and/or sales tax.

I am sure we will soon have a predict the next year of housing price movement but as a preview, I read an interesting piece by JTR on his site and am inclined to agree. I think that the continued improvement in the employment situation in San Diego will simply provide further stability to certain submarkets. Combine this with the manipulation of inventory through lender shenanigans such as pricipal reductions, loan modifications, and even reo rental programs, it is very unlikely we will see large depreciation occur. I would even venture to say that we could see modest appreciation in CERTAIN markets. These markets include the usual more desired areas that mainstreamers like which have good school districts. Places like the I15 corridor as well as north county coastal.[/quote]

SDR, got a couple of questions here . . .

How do you define a “mainstreamer?” What is their average annual HH income? Do you think their annual income is representative of the average of ALL RE buyers in SD, higher or lower?

What do you think the percentage is of county RE buyers overall, who gravitate towards the two areas you mentioned when shopping for property?

What do you use to define a “good school district?” Are they ALL in the “I15 corridor” and “north county coastal” area? Do you define the “north county coastal” area as west of I-5 only or on both sides of I-5?

If you believe the “I15 corridor” and “north county coastal” areas are poised to appreciate, why haven’t you invested in them? If you have, was it for a principal residence? If not, do you plan to invest in either one of them in the near future?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=CDMA ENG]I would pay good money for a FBI profiler to read this thread and see what thier analysis concludes.

CE[/quote]

This statement is coming from a poster who, by their posts, has demonstrated on this forum more than once their tendencies towards paranoia :={

[bearishgurl]

[quote=lifeizfunhuh]I’m an attorney so I thought I would interject something about the perils of refinancing.

In California, there is an “anti-deficiency” law on your primary residence, with your ORIGINAL LOAN. This means that if you suffer hard times and cannot pay your mortgage, you can walk, and the only recourse the lender has is to take the home. They cannot come after you for the difference between what your house is worth and the balance on the note.

If you refi however, you lose this protection. So for example, if your original note was for 500k, you refi, then default, your house is sold at auction for 300k, the bank can come after you for the “deficiency” or 200k. Is that worth a few hundred a month? What is the piece of mind worth that they can only take the house and nothing more? Lots for me thanks.[/quote]

I’m totally on board with this opinion, lifeizfun.

I have seen more than a few borrowers get pursued for a deficiency after “walking away” during the “Gulf War malaise” and in the month/years afterwards. I’ve also seen a handful of (delinquent) borrowers receive Form 1098 from their lenders for the “forgiven portion” of their mortgages in a “short sale.” Just because FF lenders currently have a “moratorium” until 2013 on lender issuance of these forms, this in no way means it will continue.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]…Without government intervention, house price declines would have been more breathtaking, as you put it. Growth, from a lower low point, would have returned sooner. But I doubt economic output would have already come back above peak levels.[/quote]

We can agree on this, brian. I believe growth from a lower low point (end ’07/begin ’08 or even ’09) would have been preferable to what we have now as it relates to our local housing market.

I don’t work in the industry and only keep up with my (local) closings every 3-4 mos or so. It was SHOCKING to me (when I recently checked local closings since the summer in late November) how much prices have dropped, causing many properties around me to be “undervalued.” Contrary to what some (ignorant) poster(s) have stated about my area on this thread, there are many estate-like luxury properties on 1-4 AC lots within 2-7 blocks from my home. The only point I was trying to make is that the “good stuff” owned by the “best hands” in EVERY area will NOT be marketed in this climate, even if its owners were toying with the idea of selling. Current moderate/middle/upper middle income “working” buyer households are left with crap out there to choose from (majority are “distressed” sales) in which the seller has not been able to afford to maintain properly for part or all of their period of ownership. The only other buying option available is overpriced, over-encumbered new construction.

In the lower-priced “equity sales” that ARE currently closing escrow, they likely have been long-ago paid off and most have not had anything done to them in 30+ years (likely elderly sellers who have already or must now move in with relatives or an assisted-living arrangement). OR they sell to a very specific buyer who appreciates and will pay for a property’s unique location and/or what was recently done to the property (in the last decade).

Longtime owners with mortgages aren’t going to take a hit to their OWN recent cash investments if they don’t have to.

It’s difficult at this time to predict how long these conditions will be present.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=hslinger][quote=bearishgurl]Under the current CA foreclosure “statutory scheme” of 111 to 141 days to trustees sale, if a lender lost $100K in “missed payments” (and followed this procedure to the letter), they would have lost $709 to $901 per day![/quote]BG it’s a good thing rationality isn’t expected of you because no one in their right mind would try to link a principle write down exclusively to missed payments.

Continue on with your whining, your irrational expectations are amusing.[/quote]

hslinger, the vast majority of folks in the “squat-mod” and “squat-SS” group haven’t had a chance to pay down any principal due to having I/O loans, choosing Option 3 or 4 on their “Option ARMS” or hitting their 125% threshold on their “exotic” mtg instrument, lol . . . Most are no doubt in the in “FB” group, meaning they are “Millenium Boom buyers.” The one’s that aren’t and are currently in these two groups have bled their ATM machine/”home” dry. And if they’ve paid any principal down at all, it has been eaten up by (multiple) closing costs, late fees and trustees fees.

If you read thru the thread, you will see that sdr’s stated his squat-“successful mod” example (who remodeled themselves into their “situation” they are in today) had “$100K of missed payments forgiven.” He claimed these missed payments (no doubt along with late fees, deferred interest and trustees fees) resulted in a $100K loss to their lender which they wrote off in a mod in favor of the FB’s.

I maintain that their lender voluntarily allowed themselves to be screwed to the tune of $100K if (this story is factual). They could have foreclosed at the 111-day or 141-day mark after the 1st payment was missed but instead allowed these borrowers to “squat” for many months in their (newly-remodeled) property.

Hence, the term I coined as “lender malaise.” The lenders have made their own beds.

I agree that “$709 to $901” per day is a ridiculous amount for a lender to lose and probably never happens. A fictitious residential mtg this large is not often (if ever) obtained, esp in the US. Obviously, a mtg this large would be a “private” loan and this type of lender would likely not be “compensated” by TPTB to delay foreclosure to allow their borrowers to indefinitely “squat.”

I urge you to reread the thread and continue to be “amused.”

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Realtor]except i don’t whine about it.[/quote]

Quite the contrary. I’m actually looking forward to collecting rent again :=]

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]Recently, I spent a few days looking at houses with some friends who want to buy.

I noticed that some people put a lot of work into their houses. But it’s nothing that I value or would pay for — I just want white walls and space.

When you buy any product, do you care about the blood, toil, tears, and sweat of the people who built it?

Maybe to you, victory is recovering your money. But victory will only come with more emotions, time and cost. This is not war, BG. There is survival without victory.[/quote]

brian, when you get ready to buy something to live in in SD, you should just get a generic condo with no frills. There are plenty of these in 92104, 92105 and 92115. In your case, there’s no use wasting a lot of time and gas looking at properties where the previous owner spent $35K on kitchen cabinets or $40K at Frost Hardwood Lumber building their “library,” lol! And forget any properties where the sellers have voluminous architectural and permit fees tied up in it. You wouldn’t appreciate the design anyway …. To each his own :=}

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