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bearishgurl
Participant[quote=ucodegen]…To get to Arizona, you can also go through Nevada then to Arizona..[/quote]
This is US 93, a mostly two-laner along the rim of the Hoover Dam, 35 mi SE of Las Vegas. A slow, comm’l truck-filled border crossing, this area is highly patrolled at ALL times. It would be only too easy to spot his vehicle there …
Participant[quote=spdrun] . . . People in SD can’t save anything because they CHOOSE to live the “lifestyle” in 3000 sq ft, rather than enjoying their surroundings and realizing that square footage ain’t everything.[/quote]
Completely agree, spdrun. If it’s not the “size” (and heating/cooling it all), it’s the vaulted ceilings which are preferred by the masses (which also use up utilities) or often both. Even those who have much smaller homes often pay dues to one or more HOAs every month and Mello Roos (on top of their property taxes) for a “lifestyle.”
One can actually purchase a SFR in SD County of 1400 sf to about 2300 sf (depending on condition) for $350K which has no MR/HOA and thus is large enough for a family and very affordable.
Yes, even 30 mins (or less) from Rancho Bernardo.
Participant[quote=davidaaronhart…]I completely disagree with some of your statements. I think any buyer with children should be concerned with teacher pensions. Currently CA ranks 47th in spending per student and this coincidentally strongly relates to achievement levels. Do you think the schools here are going to get better or worse? I have lived away from the beach and I did miss it, but that being said I also found many things to do that were just as fun. I have surfed for the last 25 years and I know i am not going pro anytime soon, its just another hobby I have lots of them. currently financial stabilty and my children are more important. I have no desire to sit in traffic for multiple hours a day commuting back and forth from Rancho Bernardo. I am curious as to where these top notch schools are where one can find a Single family home for $350k in San Diego County? I am also curious for someone who has never lived somewhere how do you know the traffic is horrendous? Lastly in regards to wages there are far more companies leaving California than there are coming here to setup shop. How do you think that is going to effect the market longterm?[/quote]
david, do you know the formula used to calculate teacher pensions in AZ school districts?
I have an aunt who taught in “Buckeye” (what was once very tiny … now part of the PHX exurban “megalopolis”) for 34 years. Now retired, she and her spouse were able to buy a HUGE spread in a “flyover southwest state” and now “farm” a few goats and poultry in their “leisure.” She also built a cedar art studio/gallery in a wing in their house, where she indulges her lifetime oil-painting hobby.
Even though food, utilities and property taxes are expensive (by CA standards) where they now live, neither she nor her spouse will ever have to go to work another day in their lives, thanks to her “AZ teacher pension” :=D
Two summers ago, she took us in her pickup for a 2+ hour grand tour of all of her leased grazing land :=D
They made enough by selling their long-owned Buckeye parcels to a residential builder (who immed subdivided it) to buy the 100+ AC property in rural flyover America. Those days are now gone in the (grossly overbuilt) PHX area.
Oh, one thing she DID tell me about the school where she taught was that even with all the federal money it received for educating Native American children (from on and off reservations), many of her students had so many “life issues” that it was difficult for them to pay attention in class, get their work done and their graduation rate was dismal. She told me that this problem was prevalent in schools all over the state.
Of course, nearly ALL of them were on the “free breakfast and lunch” program and all the teachers were trained in various “social work” functions so they could direct the parents/guardians of their students to the appropriate agency(s) for assistance.
I drive through PHX up to eight times per year (4 RT’s to rural “flyover America”), either staying on I-10 to Las Cruces, NM or connecting with I-17 to Flagstaff to I-40 (thru to ABQ, NM for the night). I’ve had to get off both I-10 and I-17 multiple times in PHX (even on a Sunday) and take surface streets to the next fwy due to sitting still for 45 mins + in miles-long traffic jams and accidents.
david, are you stating here that you only tried to find a $350K property in and around Rancho Bernardo? Have you investigated other, lesser-expensive areas in SD County which would be up to a ~30 min commute for you to RB? And how far did you plan to commute to work in AZ if you lived in that 4-5/3/3 *newer* house that you posted about? Of course, you have no idea how far your spouse would have to commute in PHX, because she doesn’t even have a job there yet. Do you?
Why don’t you ask yourself what kind of jobs (low-paying boiler-room, anyone?) CA “lost” to the state of AZ. Good riddance. The working conditions sucked and they didn’t even pay a “living wage” here and they don’t pay one in AZ either.
All I’m saying here is that the “grass isn’t always greener” somewhere else if one or both of you already have a good job in SD County. Especially NOT in AZ! If you have only “shopped” for a house in areas where they are $450K+, of course you haven’t found a $350K house!
Simply put, you have been shopping in the wrong areas in SD County for your price range.
Participant[quote=flyer] . . . Depending on where you will be working, housing choices in the Valley, like Ahwatukee, Chandler (Ocotillo) Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Carefree, Desert Ridge and the Anthem developments (some here are “pricey,”) are great for families.
The bottom line is AZ is what it is. . . .[/quote]
Even flyer (fmr AZ resident) acknowledges that those “sprawling ranch” enclaves described by “david” are “pricey.”
[quote=davidaaronhart…]1) Housing cost- For $350k I can purchase a newer home with 4-5 bdrms, and 3 plus baths, with a pool and a 3 car garage for my boat ;)…[/quote]
david, where is the 4-5/3/3 located in or near PHX for $350K? And if it is NOT in PHX, how many miles away is it??
[quote=flyer]. . . In fact, you’ll probably save enough to be able to return to San Diego someday if you so choose.
IMO, this is a far better plan for a young family than burning up everything they make during their peak earning years–living paycheck to paycheck in CA–then ending up with nothing saved in their retirement years.[/quote]
I disagree with flyer on this issue. This assumption presumes a few things that likely will not take place, IMHO:
a) that RE values in CA coastal counties will stay stagnant or fall in the coming years;
b) that a CA worker moving to AZ is going to make more money there than if they stayed in their jobs in a CA coastal county; and
c) that one can make a profit in the future on a house they buy, maintain and possibly improve in the (grossly overbuilt) PHX area in the coming years; and
d) that the family who moves to AZ, by hook or crook, who DOES end up having more discretionary income every month isn’t going to spend it (on water/desert toys and trips to SD to the “beach” to get out of the heat) and end up living from “paycheck to paycheck” anyway :=]
Participant[quote=spdrun]However, it’s not impossible to find a 2 bedroom condo within a few miles of the beach (biking distance) for that price.[/quote]
The problem is that RV storage has really gone up in SD County in recent years. In the eighties, it used to be as little as $17 month to store a ski boat in dry storage. Now it’s about $75 and up per month (depending on if the dry storage has gas and/or a loading dock).
There are PLENTY of houses in SD County with RV pkg/RV access for ~$350K.
Participant[quote=sdsurfer][quote=spdrun]So your argument mainly has to do with real estate costs. Why not just stay in CA and buy rentals in an area that has a more favorable buy-to-rent ratio, using the income from them to finance a better lifestyle in CA?
$350k of rental property (financed) should net you $10-15k/yr at least, putting a dent in that 1000 sf condo expense. Keep in mind that average house size up till the ’70s in America was about 1000 sf, so don’t discount living in that size home with a family (people do it all the time in New York).[/quote]
I was born in 77 so I didn’t live through them really, but that is an interesting point about the smaller home sizes. Maybe if more of us could accept a more reasonable existence we might actually end up with some money at the end of the month huh? It seems like all new homes are at least 3k sq. ft these days and 2500 ends up being the average when in actuality how many square feet do two people and a kiddo or two need? Thanks for mentioning that![/quote]sdsurfer, your “friend” (david?) and his spouse could easily buy a single family home in San Diego County for ~$350K . . . yes, much bigger than 1000 sf.
Even if they DO surf, they can’t do it during the weekdays, anyway, while they are working and the kids are in school. There are PLENTY of surfers in SD County who live 25+ miles from their favorite surfing beaches and use them only on weekends and “staycations.” It’s really not that bad of a drive and parking is pretty easy at SD’s beaches for eight months per year. When the “zonies” infiltrate them the other four months, it is VERY hard to park for EVERYONE who doesn’t live within walking distance or ride the bus there.
“david” shouldn’t expect to be able to buy his first home close to the beach. Almost no one does.
It’s BS if one thinks there are no family-size homes available in this county for $350K which have access to acceptable to excellent public schools and even RV parking!
“david” should keep in mind that it’s not “cheap” to air-condition a 2800+ sf ranch nine months per year in AZ. Water is cheaper in NV but in AZ it takes a LOT of water to keep landscaping alive … hence, you see a lot of rocks in the yards instead of grass or ground cover.
And sdduuuude and other “experts” forgot to mention silverfish infestation … just another fun fact about living in the desert :=]
I’ve been all over Phoenix and the average size lot there is about 5000-6000 sf (same as SD Co), yes, even in the northern suburbs. Of course, there are enclaves of sprawling ranch homes on 1/3+ AC, but they are NOT in the “$350K” range.
And having towed a boat and a few trailers through there, I can tell you that the traffic can be “horrendous.”
And I don’t see “david’s” spouse making as much $$ in AZ as she does here due to a traditionally lower wage paid there.
Many of CA’s former telemarketers, order-filler operations and collection agencies, etc actually moved their entire operations to AZ in the last 20 years almost solely due to the lower prevailing wages there.
Not biased against Phoenix as I have never lived there. But I think your argument that you can’t find anything to buy for your family in SD County for $350K is disingenuous and a first-time buyer doesn’t need to concern themselves with stuff like teacher’s pensions, etc. Trust me when I tell you that your children will have acceptable to GREAT schools to go to right here in SD County and there are PLENTY of accredited state residents to apply for and fill ALL of the public school teacher slots which will be vacated by those many thousands of teachers retiring … and then some.
I’d be interested to know exactly where you have been shopping for a home, david, and why you think you and your spouse should give up good jobs to take the drastic step of “moving to Phoenix” instead of buying a place here in SD County.
ParticipantGood post, paulflorez.
I just don’t see how it’s possible for a lender to “police” what a borrower does with his/her HELOC proceeds.
The only “reasonable limitations” that I know of in “technically” non-purchase-money RE lending is in the case of a construction loan, where a lender will release to the general contractor only that portion which is now due for work completed or materials to be purchased.
A typical construction-loan borrower can’t use this type of loan as he wishes and doesn’t usually have direct access to the proceeds.
Participant…”We are seeing more responsible uses today, like home improvements, education expenses or other major expenses that would be a more responsible use of a customer’s home equity,” Blackwell said.
The average home equity line in October of 2012 was just below $90,000 compared to October 2006, when lines averaged just over $100,000, according to Equifax….(emphasis added)
This isn’t very much less home equity than the average amount which was removed in 2006! But I do agree with spdrun that values aren’t likely to decline in the future in CA coastal counties (ESP the well-established areas) … don’t know about other parts of the US.
For a “free and clear” owner (or one with over 50% equity) on a property worth at least $450K, I can see borrowing for home improvements in areas in which sold prices will bear these investments. But I just don’t see the prudence of borrowing for educational purposes for child(ren) as it is likely to leave the parent close to or at retirement with an extra ~90K (+?) to pay back on their homes without the improvements to make their properties more salable for a higher price.
Due to the fact that many CA college graduates are now going to have to relocate to find work in their field that pays a living wage, should today’s parent expect their ex-student-children (whom they borrowed for) to help them pay back their HELOC while supporting their own families in other counties/states??
I don’t see this happening. Meanwhile, after college graduation the parent is likely 55-65 years old and often left behind without enough monthly income to keep the payments up on their adjustable-rate HELOC in a possibly rising-interest rate environment.
I suspect many parents are falling for this trap to keep their kids from taking out (the recently highly-publicized) non-dischargeable (variable-interest) student loans at a 6.5%+ (current) interest rate.
But this practice could very well leave THE PARENT(s) without a home when they are on a fixed-income and least able to pay for one, cuz I don’t see their kids coming to the rescue for them :=0
Participant[quote=ucodegen] … PS: Another term for “Group Think” in terms of decision making.. is “Group Grope”.. and usually results in the lowest or worst decision possible.[/quote]
The “group” is only as good as its lowest common denominator . . . who has been likely skating on the coattails of its more creative, productive members for years.
That’s been my experience with “groups,” lol …
[quote=sdduuuude]While solitude is awesome for creativity, it isn’t such a good environment for generating sales.[/quote]
I partially agree with this, but if you have a job which involves concentration and production to deadlines, then a “Groupthink” environment just gums up the works, IMO.
ParticipantI read the article, as well. I don’t think most of the sheeple want(ed) to `rock the boat.’ They keep their opinions to themselves. I have found that most people don’t want to try to make things better, they just want(ed) to get their paycheck every two weeks and eventually “retire.”
Most people who observe a physical fight going on will not try to goad the perpetrator to stop or step in to help the victim. Some will disappear around the corner to call 911.
It is completely true that most work meetings are a complete waste of time. It’s a chance for the same lackeys over and over to try and take credit for others’ work product or the “PTB’s” to pat each other on the back. The employees who were usually “recognized” in these meetings often had poor attendance records (causing their co-workers to constantly fill in for them) and exhibited poor character in other ways on the job.
And twelve workers (even all of the same classification) bumping their heads together in a meeting is akin to a comedy of errors :=0
Not sure if anything’s changed in the last eight or so years, since I was a “cog in a wheel.”
I much prefer taking control of a whole project by myself. That way, no one else can fvck it up if I have to be out of the office for any reason. The only person who can take credit for it is me, myself and I (and thusly get paid for ALL of it).
Okay, I’ll take credit for having some “control-freak” tendencies :=}
I think forming and maintaining “teams” are a ridiculous waste of money for employers. It just invites wasting time and socializing among team members.
Participant[quote=CA renter]I wonder how many Piggs are introverts…[/quote]
I’m actually an “extrovert” with people around but enjoy solitude …. very much :=]
Participant[quote=spdrun]But some of the close-in areas (read: downtown) seem to also have annoyingly high charges on condos. 400-500/mo carrying charges alone on a smallish one-bedroom may fly in NYC (where heat, hot water, and possibly electricity are included), but not so much in SD.[/quote]
I agree, spdrun. I wasn’t advocating that young parents should move their children into these (mostly high-rise) condos. I was speaking of SFR’s in the various close-in urban “communities” of SD and close-in suburbs of east and south county. Many of these properties have much bigger lots than those in exurbia and the very established ones in metro SD (south of I-8) and south county are NOT freeway dependent to the urban core. Even the “north city” communities of SD (from MM down to I-8) are close to many industrial and office parks without having to use a freeway.
Participant[quote=flyer]Not that it would really effect me, but glad to hear from the professionals that sequestration will, most likely, not become an issue that will negatively effect the housing market in San Diego.
BG, you make some very good points, and it’s always interesting how almost every thread becomes a “Battle of the Neighborhoods.” We all have neighborhoods we “wouldn’t be caught dead in,” but that’s not good or bad, it’s just preferences.
For example, one of our preferences is not being more than 10 minutes or so from the ocean–and that factors into where we chose to live in RSF.
If people are overextending themselves to keep up with their peers, or for any other reason–that’s another story. I just hope they can take care of themselves and their families if it all hits the fan–that would be my only REAL concern.[/quote]
flyer, I’m not really partial to any ONE area or “neighborhood” in SD. I was just trying to make a point that previous generations of workers purchased their homes in SD, stayed long-term and became part of their communities while a very LARGE percentage of newer generations of workers fled … some as far as they could and still get to work within ~90(+) minutes or so.
There was never any reason to flee urban or suburban SD to purchase a home (if that is where one works) and there isn’t now.
As I previously stated, the wholesale “fleeing” while shunning available properties in numerous close-in zip codes in SD County is what is causing the “sequestration,” IMHO.
Meanwhile, many are “whining” about “lack of inventory.”
Many of those same “whiners” could live closer to their jobs and have MUCH more inventory to choose from.
But the majority don’t WANT to. They want to shop further away from work, and, in doing so, make their own beds when they find themselves “freeway-dependent” twice every weekday in a long line of like-minded people :=)
I agree with you regarding homeowners (possibly inadvertently) “overextending themselves,” especially those with minor children still at home. This often happens when the home they chose has high monthly HOA dues PLUS high Mello-Roos to pay (on top of PITI). The monthly carrying costs eventually become too high with all the rest of the family needs. For some, this occurs MUCH SOONER than later.
Again, this is a byproduct of “fleeing” the urban cores and close-in communities and suburbs in favor or distant suburbia, exurbia or out-of-county.
I also agree that even though the younger generations in “family-raising-mode” fleeing the cities and close-in communities causes “sequestration,” this phenomenon, in and of itself, is not likely to affect the housing market in CA coastal counties.
This is due to PLENTY of buyers of every stripe from everywhere (a good portion with ALL CASH) who have no reservations at all about buying properties in SD’s close-in areas, whether for a personal residence or rental investment :=]
Participant[quote=toots] . . . The GS folks are mostly older and/or Navy retirees who got hired on after retirement. They bought their houses when they were affordable.
Contractors are either very young renters or have young families that live in places like Temecula, Marietta and Escondido. . . . [/quote]
Piggs, take a hard look at this “very typical” picture of longtime SD workers.
The GS “boomer” workers (a good portion no doubt current and future “double dippers”) are still working into their sixties and still contributing to FERS and their TSP’s.
Why? To keep OASDI “afloat,” the SSA is trying to convince them (if they’re “healthy”) to delay SS “retirement” until age 70 (for a MUCH higher monthly annuity) but of course, if they do so, they take the chance they will die in the interim and not collect a penny of it :=0
See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wondering-when-to-take-social-security–145428605.html
This doesn’t bode well for Gen X Federal workers’ upward mobility in the General Service and Wage Grade trades.
Younger Gen X and Gen Y have been working as “contractors” because as boomers and beyond retired, their positions were likely never filled.
“Contractors” don’t work for the government directly so don’t have a defined benefit pension.
SPAWARS and the old NOSC buildings (foot of Rosecrans) are a l-o-o-o-ng commute from TV. There are MANY areas of SD, East and South County which were and are just as affordable as TV but are located 8-20 miles of these installations. Listings abound in ALL of them.
These SD Federal contract-workers are making their daily lives hell as well as racking up their gasoline bills and auto maintenance/repair expense by commuting over 100 miles per day.
It’s ridiculous and never needed to happen. These SD workers did it to themselves.
Meanwhile, their “boomer” co-workers are living 0-20 miles away in houses most of them likely owned for decades.
It doesn’t matter what they paid for them. I can assure you that these workers were paid MUCH LESS when they first bought them with mortgages at MUCH HIGHER interest rates than today! It’s ALL relative. All you need to do is carefully take notice that they’re NOT MOVING and ask yourselves why a 55-yo 1550 sf house with a knotty-pine kitchen on a 5000 sf lot in Serra Mesa was good enough for THEM to raise their families in and also good enough for THEM to retire in but NOT good enough for later Gen X and Gen Y to do same.
Values and expectations have changed so much that today’s younger family-raising cohort wouldn’t be caught dead making offers in the same “middle-class” SD neighborhoods that their coworkers senior to them have lived in for decades. They want *newer* and *larger* straight out of the gate. So much so, that one or both parents in a household will drive 100++ miles round trip to work every day.
Hard to believe, but true. I believe this phenomenon of very high expectations among young parents is a direct cause of the “sequestration” we’re seeing in coastal CA counties. They’re doing it to themselves because they have so much “choice” and many are now “transplants” and don’t have any local family to advise them when they are about to make a big mistake (such as buying a primary home out-of-county when your job(s) are located in SD) :=0
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