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bearishgurl
Participant[quote=SK in CV][quote=Essbee]Alvarado Estates IS gated, at least it was the last time I walked in/out (2004 and ~2006).
Agree with the rest of your statement… the census tract there includes many thousands of college students with very low incomes, lowering the average.[/quote]
I stand corrected, I just took a look on google maps and the gate is pretty obvious. It wasn’t there in 60’s when the area was originally developed, through the 80’s for sure. Last time I was there was probably mid-90’s. Pretty sure it wasn’t there then.[/quote]
Yes, Essbee, I looked at (historically expensive college towns, such as) Boulder, CO, on the map. The incomes are low where the housing is traditionally high-priced to purchase in (which has obviously 3-4 college students in one rental and also students residing in dorms and filing tax returns). I attributed the low-income census tracts to the incomes of college students. Of course, the “surrounding areas of Boulder proper” (inconvenient for students) were dark green, indicating the highest incomes for the state of CO.
btw, I love the houses in Alvarado Estates. Is that where you grew up, Essbee? Give me avocado green decor with matching ball-and-chain lamp. Shag carpet a plus and a “carpet rake included” if any are still available, lol . . . awesome ‘hood, and yes, it does have a gate now.
Mid-century-type neighborhoods are my nemesis but the Assn fee here, if accurate, is outta sight on this one :=0
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130017695-4620_Yerba_Santa_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92115
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Sounds like a lot of homes,
I hope the SmartPhone Biz stays hot..[/quote]
I can attest that myself and most of my local “brethren” are still using candy bar and flip phones circa 2004-2008 without a data plan. Most of these folks (not me) have prepaid phones :-0
I hope there is an infinite supply of Gen Y who want and can afford a new smartphone every 1-2 years … for the sake of continuing escalation of residential property values in CarmelV and MM :=D
Participant[quote=livinincali] . . . There’s some out there that are truly free and clear but I’d guess that it doesn’t represent most and certainly doesn’t prevent them from cash out refinancing at some point. If they end up with a bad experience dealing with tenants do they stay there when other yield investments start being more competitive. Maybe, I don’t know. I just feel like the emotional attachment isn’t there. People have drained retirement accounts to keep an owner occupied home. An investor probably has some kind of risk tolerance where they are prepared to exit even if it means a principal loss.[/quote]
I personally don’t know anyone who has “drained their retirement accounts” to keep their home. I think cash out refinancing is done by a very small minority of longtime owners. I don’t see this being done in the submarkets I follow which are heavy with free and clear owners. Some of the owners are occupying and some are not. These properties are in their estates and will ostensibly be passed down to children/grandchildren upon their death sans reassessment pursuant to Props 58 and 193.
If rates rise, LL’s will stay LL’s if it makes financial sense to do so. When rates go up on passive investments, a free-and-clear LL may decide to figure out if they will still be making more landlording than they would on investing in passive vehicles, which would have less work involved. They will have to also take into consideration what the price and likely terms would be at that time if they listed their rental property and figure out the cost of repairs and improvements they might have to make to it to market it successfully for the highest price in light of its current competition.
A LOT of longtime owners don’t have an “emotional attachment” to RE. I myself have never had an “emotional attachment” to RE whether the property in question was actually my home … or not. Emotional attachment and RE don’t mix well, especially when buying, selling, renting out and attempting to improve a property. Taking off the rose colored glasses and looking at the numbers in the light of day to see if they make sense or will make sense is what should always be done with a piece of RE, whether a longtime owner-occupier, investor or in buying one’s first principal residence. I think a lot of longtime RE owners feel as I do, especially in coastal CA.
[quote=livinincali]Just like there’s a flurry to get in right now there’s potentially a flurry to get out at some point down the road. Don’t be in the position of having to compete with them to sell at that point. I suppose you could hope that the bigger players unload in bulk sales that don’t hit the open market. . .[/quote]
I just don’t see this “massive exit” resulting in excessive inventory happening all at once. Just like the Big Banks, a free-and-clear owner doesn’t have to market his tract home if there are already 2-3 of the same floor plan as his in his subdivision currently listed for sale … or for any reason inventory is plentiful and/or the market is leaning towards a buyer’s market or is a buyer’s market.
The future residential RE market won’t have the same conditions as it did post millenium-boom, when nearly ALL recent buyers, recent cash-out refinancers and recent ATMer’s were “underwater” (comprised of “owner” occupants and mostly amateur LL’s.)
It seems some here are postulating a tsumani of sorts or a residential RE bust that isn’t going to happen, IMHO.
Nor do I think the sold comps will keep escalating into infinity. But it’s different this time because the recent purchaser-pool is vastly different from that in the millenium boom.
April 10, 2013 at 5:15 PM in reply to: Auction List of Foreclosure Sales assist you find out the exact Property #761154Participant[quote=all]The owner does not really expect you to read the article and purchase the product based on what you just read.[/quote]
What is the purpose of them, then? You don’t get paid for being “annoying.”
April 10, 2013 at 3:28 PM in reply to: Auction List of Foreclosure Sales assist you find out the exact Property #761147ParticipantIt is clear here that English is not “Steve’s” first language.
LOL…
ParticipantSounds like the makings of the ultimate congestion nightmare, DaCounselor. Another Mira Mesa, if you will.
ParticipantFolks, I’m now seeing multiple posts on this site about recent SFR cash investors, big and small, at risk of implosion. I just don’t see this constellation. EVERYONE needs a place to live and there are a LOT MORE people now who can’t qualify for a purchase money mortgage and have no choice but to rent or stay with relatives and friends.
Certainly, we have all learned by now that free-and-clear owners can do whatever they wish in ALL markets. In the absence of CA coastal counties drifting off the mainland into the ocean, the vast majority of the free-and-clear RE owners within them can just tell everyone to take a hike as I believe they are truly immune from the vagaries in the broader economy.
Cash and equity talks and other stuff walks.
Participant[quote=livinincali] . . . The fear of inflation and search for yield are significant driving factors in today’s market. There’s plenty of people hiding out in real estate as a safe haven that would probably rather be invested in something else. I honestly think investor speculators looking for yield are probably much weaker hands than traditional owner occupiers. It will be the perfect storm when rates rise. Not only will mortgage rates go up but at the same time those that were looking for yield are going to try to exit.[/quote]
livinincali, I disagree that free-and-clear RE owners are “weaker hands.”
It doesn’t matter that these “investors” were/are seeking yield. If it is not a good time to sell, they don’t have to. If rates go up, they can continue to rent their propertie(s) out in lieu of investing in something more passive. I just don’t see CD’s, MM funds and bond yields going so high as to rival rental income from an investment property purchased right and with all cash.
“Traditional owner occupiers” didn’t buy to “make the numbers work.” They bought what they liked where they personally wanted to live (within the confines of their qualifications).
Participant[quote=earlyretirement]…Yep. Me too. Goes the same lines of the job market here in San Diego being poor compared to other areas. I don’t think it’s so much a case of “willing” to commute an hour as it is “forced” to commute that distance.[/quote]
ER, you must bear in mind that no one … and I mean NO ONE is FORCED to commute for work from one coastal county in SoCal to another, unless they CHOOSE TO do so! As soon as an adversely affected commuting family feels they are no longer “underwater,” they should immediately list their home in attempt to “get out from under” and move to a more convenient location for themselves.
In the current market, there is no excuse for this travesty unless the family is so underwater that they should have handed in the keys to their house in long ago, IMHO.
The reality is that all workers in CA coastal counties can live reasonably close to their employer if they wish to do so. They are CHOOSING to do otherwise.
The issue of CHOICE is the “elephant in the room,” here.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Really I think all of this applies to anywhere in Coastal SoCal in good school districts (even some not so good).
Even in L.A.
It’s expensive to live along the SoCal coast!![/quote]
Uhh, Shoveler, HELLO?
It’s even MORE expensive (for what you get) for a homeowner to live along the NorCal coast … for very, VERY good reasons.
You get what you pay for in this life.
Never forget this mantra.
Participant[quote=spdrun]Offer is moving along nicely in the process, wouldn’t want to jinx the thing by saying more 🙂 . . .[/quote]
spdrun, I wouldn’t want to jinx anything but I hope you are able to get a SS approval on an offer you placed in SD. You seem to have been very diligent, practical and patient and deserve to be able to close on an accepted offer in SD.
The SD residential RE market is no doubt very different from the east coast market in many ways.
Participantsdresident, aren’t there any available resales in Carmel Valley for you to place offers on which are better-located than the new construction tract you are considering?
The only land left in SD County to build on today is likely the most undesirable, IMHO. Otherwise, it stands to reason that it would have already been developed.
ParticipantI hear you, ER. I wouldn’t spend $400K on a home with freeway noise. I can’t stand it and have to have my “quiet enjoyment.”
I won’t live in a hood full or teens or partying college students (with speakers in their car trunks and thrush mufflers), for the same reason.
I don’t even like seeing toys constantly left all over the sidewalks. I would prefer to live with my own “brethren” or senior citizens.
Participant[quote=equalizer]Since prices are going up, people looking to move to smaller place, out of town or sell second home will wait until prices appreciation slows down.
Seems like SD market was slow between 1990-1996, this time faster recovery?
Cause really out of good land, population increase?[/quote]Very perceptive post, equalizer. I agree with all of it. I don’t see imminent retirees willing to leave anything on the table if they can possibly help it.
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