It seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…
– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.
So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.
It seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…
– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.
So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.
