[barnaby33]

People like to pile on RE agents, but thats a recent phenomenon. Lawyers on the other hand are a timeless source of irritation, until you need one.

My girlfriends father and stepmother are lawyers, her stepfather is a judge, none of them like lawyers either.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Although I don’t want to defend media outlets, let me say three things. Media people are no smarter than others, so if most people still don’t really believe there is a bubble, why would most in the media?

How many times you have seen a news story where you knew about the topic at hand and thought, wow that really was accurate reporting. They actually got the facts straight. Two months ago a fellow paraglider pilot died at my home flying site. I wasn’t there, but all my friends were and so I had intimate knowledge of the incident. The news show got some local resident, whom none of us had ever even seen and labeled him a paraglider pilot. He said some vague meangingless hyperbole about how it can sometimes be dangerous and that was it.

OH and they have a vested interest in it being so. I believe thats called confirmation bias.

Josh

[barnaby33]

What gave you the confidence to keep going after your first? I assume you aren’t an independantly wealthy person. Especially if you were negative each month.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Its all about you Rich, are you in? (Not in that brain sickly Barona casino sort of way either.)

Josh

[barnaby33]

So by your admission it seems like you made all your profits, or at least most of them, on appreciation, rather than rental income.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I believe most PhD candidates have their educations funded by their institution. They also receive a small stipend. Usually its enough to barely get by. I know several people in this situation.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Repeal prop 13, get a real debate on immigration and cap population levels based on what the water supply can support.

We certainly don’t need more freeways. Actually toll roads would be very nice. You drive more, you pay more.

I don’t see how you can make elected officials more honest PS it hasn’t happened before in human history, and while your beautification ideas are pretty good, even you admit we can’t fund them. So the ideas that would make SD a better place to live involve creating funding sources so we can do some things to make our lives better.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Yes but you could split it out along an 80/20 rule. Where 80% of the value is computed by a simple algorithm. Avg price, square footage, #of rooms etc. Then have 20% submitted by a person. That would still give you a rough idea, and cut it down to hundreds of attribs, rather than thousands.

If and when the owner felt like adding in info on added amenities he could do so for a more complete appraisal.

Yes its still subjective, but so are all appraisals and it would get people closer to where they want to be which is narrowing down wide swaths of housing to a value and range that they are interested in.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Well when you put it like that, sheeesh.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Its unfolding a bit fast, but think about it. Even if we didn’t have job losses and even if everyone who took out a mortgage could somehow keep their jobs, interest rates are up quite a bit from their 04/05 lows. That alone spells doom for the RE speculator crowd. Again lets go out on a limb here and assume that for every house there is a greater fool. Todays greater fool can qualify for a much smaller loan than yesterdays, even with the most exotic of programs. In RE market terms this is unfolding FAST!

I remember a year ago when one of my co-workers thought 07 was going to be ground zero(I was a bit incredulous.) It may still be, but its looking like fall of 06. Time tables are moving up.

Interest rates are up, check.
Job market is flat, check.
Credit standards are rising, check. (This is the last nail in the coffin.)

What I came to love about Rich’s analysis was that it was conservative. He showed you the facts he had but drew fairly conservative conclusions. The more reading I have done, the more this becomes apparent. Besides anyone who is reading this blog is a contrarian, so Chris you are still ok.

Josh

[barnaby33]

As a lazy mans way to do this, just goto this link and bookmark it.

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/cgi-bin/search?areaID=8&subAreaID=0&query=reduced&catAbbreviation=rfs&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max

It will tell you right up top how many there are.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Dictionary.com defines a crash as, “To undergo a sudden severe downturn, as a market or economy.”

On a more personal level I would define it as; “that rythmic pounding sensation in your ass as you slowly realize that yours and everyone else’s ARM is adjusting at the same time. Coupled with the realization that your pants really are around your ankles.”

Josh

[barnaby33]

Plus in San Antonio, you don’t have to worry about any of those pesky mountains sneaking up on you. They are scary.

Josh

[barnaby33]

There are lots of silly debates, but we have them anyway. I would say that fundamentally SD has too many people period. There isn’t enough land, to house and feed our current population in any sustainable manner, our water supply is very very tenuous.

I’m against a new airport in any form, as it would lead to growth in San Diego.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Moldy toadstools Batman, thats alot of inventory!

Josh

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