[barnaby33]

For prices to drop substantially from here all we’d need is any one of a number of things to go differently. Not even wrong, just different.

For instance one of the major banks could be forced to divest itself of its foreclosures to raise capital. Flooding the market with inventory seldom raises prices.

Another for instance is the economy worsening at a rapid pace, something I feel is pretty likely. Less buyers, same number of houses, falling prices.

On the interest rate front, I’m guessing as the presidential race heats up Foney and Fraudie are going to come back up. Putting them in run down mode would almost certainly lower prices.

A blow-up of the Euro while nominally good for the dollar would actually probably be good for prices. So see there is something to look forward to.

Back to the intent of the OP, payments! The only reason why prices haven’t fallen more and payments risen is because the govt is subsidizing risk. Almost every person who buys now is gambling that they will be able and willing to keep doing so. Hell I’d buy if I could find something I’d want to live in for ten years that I could afford. However still being in the top 20% of the income bracket and debt free doesn’t seem to get me there. That more than anything else tells me we haven’t seen bottom.

Enjoy your low monthly payment sir, it comes at an evil cost. When the govt is incentivizing you to do something, its usually not a good idea.
Josh

[barnaby33]

FSD, I posted because I disagree. Housing is only cheap because of unrealistic financing. Housing will be fairly priced when we return to historic norms for ALL the important aspects of how housing is priced, including incomes AND interest rates. Its only cheap if you ignore risk. Risk is NOT intangible. Unemployment is high and probably going higher. Interest rates are driven to lows only because our govt is buying all the mortgages and subsidizing risk at a huge level. Costs for everything basic are surging MUCH faster than increases in income. Its nuts to say housing is affordable.

I’ve had this argument with Rich several times over dinner. I suppose the way I view it is that in order for housing to recover it has to be fairly priced. In order for fairly priced to occur, employment must be on the rebound or at least stable. Lenders must also be accurately compensated for the risk of lending money. One other often overlooked issue is rising taxation. Too many of the unspoken assumptions in this and many other threads are that none of the fundamentals have changed radically. If nothing else this period of instability should point out that many of those either no longer are true, or are due to be changed in the near future.

If you just look at the statistics of rent to own in aggregate I’d agree that things aren’t awful. Of course, again you are making assumptions that the rest of the “market” is functioning normally as well. One of those assumptions is that rent to own ratios encompass a very broad swath of society. In the US where unemployment hovers near 10% I don’t think that’s a valid claim. If unemployment were close to average sure. So now there are two problems I have with that metric. One it covers a much smaller group of people than it used to. Second there is no compensatory stat for those who aren’t covered and probably aren’t working. That’s just one of the traditional metrics that people use. There are of course others.

[barnaby33]

So you are all comparing current pricing to peak insanity with loan products that aren’t available anymore and almost zero wage growth yet 15% cost of living inflation(using other posters number, not my own). Wow there is some VERY fuzzy math going on here. I’m lucky in that I’ve gotten a 3% raise each of the last two years. Most people who have a job, haven’t.

Anywho, congrats on finding that payment that is half what it was at peak! What was your name? I thought I heard Harry Howmuchamonth.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Happened to me on my trip to London last month. Taxes and fees were more than the ticket. Next time you arrive at Lindbergh, remember those exit ramps you just helped pay for.

[barnaby33]

Supposedly, early rains this year destroyed many grapes.

Where was this? I’ve heard that about Napa, but where else are you referring to?

Josh

[barnaby33]

Not going to argue there. Everyone wants to maintain the “dignity” of their brand and not dilute pricing. However what I’m commenting on is oriented more towards what I see for the general consumer as opposed to someone, like you or I who hunts and pecks. The implication being you’ve got to know what you are looking for to find those good deals.

To me though the great deals have largely disappeared, on current release items.

[barnaby33]

When you were young, prices were reasonable, politicians were noble and children respected their elders…

[barnaby33]

There is a big difference between giving the weakest, most irresponsible and relatively small segment of the population additional discretionary income for a year or two than giving it to the stronger, responsible and larger segment of the population for the long term. BIG DIFFERENCE!!!! And one with a very long term lasting impact.

You mean pretty much everyone who bought a house in SoCal since about 2002? I’d love to hear the explanation of this one.

[barnaby33]

Tijuana? Its close and you could claim Texas as your state of residence. I mean if you are considering Vegas or Reno, Tijuana isn’t much different. Other than its closer to San Diego.

[barnaby33]

TG, if you’ve offended a woman, she needed it. Not sure I agree with everything you have said but the sentiment seems honest. A bit over machismo-ized, but honest.

After being single for 2 years in SD I’ve realized this town is downright awful for being single. Its transient, its shallow, its expensive. Then there is the downside.

Oh well I suppose I’m just as guilty as those on the other side of the gender divide. A non-warpath 26-32 year old who likes paragliding or is tolerant of it. One with a penchant for travel, a decent palette for wine and someone doesn’t have some massive case of look-at-me-isms.

Its amazing how much of our discussions around mating have to do with women’s need for marriage.

[barnaby33]

Or as the wise but cranky davelj once said, “it all comes down to who’s ox is being gored.” That whole re-jiggering thing, I’m pretty sure that the current systems winners are strongly opposed to that. As it happens they are also opposed to raising taxes. Go figure.
Josh

[barnaby33]

I love how much effort they put into describing expansion, as if anything other than debt has expanded in the last two years.

I’m still solidly of the opinion we never left depression.

[barnaby33]

Or worry but know that its as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubble gum.
Josh

[barnaby33]

Wait, you have a gin tree? This I need to see!
Josh

[barnaby33]

Wait, you have a gin tree? This I need to see!
Josh

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