[asragov]

They are hiring a ton of staff for essentially subsidized loan programs. This will NOT:

– Offset large job losses elsewhere in the mortgage industry
– Help profitability in the banking system
– Allow people who cannot afford a 30 year amortizing loan to really afford it
– Make much of a dent, since $1 billion will not go very far (it’s only 5,000 x $200,000 mortgages). Even $10 billion is only 50,000 mortgages
– Affect the general American mentality that “someone else must be to blame”

[asragov]

The always excellent Roubini Global Economics Monitor has been explaining this crisis as a problem of solvency, not liquidity:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/209779/

It is hard to imagine any bailout that the banks will go along with, if it will only help the consumer. I expect that the bailout of everyone would be politically impossible, as it would be too huge.

Originally used by Bill Gross at PIMCO, “the constipated owl” (where nothing is moving) is a great expression for the current state of the credit markets:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/211387

[asragov]

The always excellent Roubini Global Economics Monitor has been explaining this crisis as a problem of solvency, not liquidity:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/209779/

It is hard to imagine any bailout that the banks will go along with, if it will only help the consumer. I expect that the bailout of everyone would be politically impossible, as it would be too huge.

Originally used by Bill Gross at PIMCO, “the constipated owl” (where nothing is moving) is a great expression for the current state of the credit markets:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/211387

[asragov]

The always excellent Roubini Global Economics Monitor has been explaining this crisis as a problem of solvency, not liquidity:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/209779/

It is hard to imagine any bailout that the banks will go along with, if it will only help the consumer. I expect that the bailout of everyone would be politically impossible, as it would be too huge.

Originally used by Bill Gross at PIMCO, “the constipated owl” (where nothing is moving) is a great expression for the current state of the credit markets:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/211387

[asragov]

It seems like it is “too big to fail.”

Although being somewhat outside the banking system, CFC presents a difficult policy challenge.

You might enjoy this post, from over at Minyanville, “CFC empties out on Widowmaker”:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734

[asragov]

It seems like it is “too big to fail.”

Although being somewhat outside the banking system, CFC presents a difficult policy challenge.

You might enjoy this post, from over at Minyanville, “CFC empties out on Widowmaker”:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734

[asragov]

It seems like it is “too big to fail.”

Although being somewhat outside the banking system, CFC presents a difficult policy challenge.

You might enjoy this post, from over at Minyanville, “CFC empties out on Widowmaker”:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734

[asragov]

This is risky territory, so let’s look at just two of the risks:

– Currency risk (New Zealand dollars vs. US dollar – very volatile). The trend has been mostly up the past five years, but there have been plenty of periods where it has not been that way (depending on how long you are going for):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NZDUSD=X&t=5y

– New Zealand’s own bubble:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/04/26/new-zealand-kiwi-markets-currency-cx_vk_0426markets05.html

Does this sound familiar (“the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today warned that unsustainable home lending was placing the entire economy at risk”)?

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?cat=16

Maybe just enjoy New Zealand and its beautiful scenery, rather try to speculate in this volatile environment…. ?

[asragov]

This is risky territory, so let’s look at just two of the risks:

– Currency risk (New Zealand dollars vs. US dollar – very volatile). The trend has been mostly up the past five years, but there have been plenty of periods where it has not been that way (depending on how long you are going for):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NZDUSD=X&t=5y

– New Zealand’s own bubble:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/04/26/new-zealand-kiwi-markets-currency-cx_vk_0426markets05.html

Does this sound familiar (“the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today warned that unsustainable home lending was placing the entire economy at risk”)?

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/?cat=16

Maybe just enjoy New Zealand and its beautiful scenery, rather try to speculate in this volatile environment…. ?

[asragov]

The link between ARM resets and the bottom may not be exact.

For example, it might take some time for tighter credit standards to cause problems in the market.

I think that the graph helps give some insight into the timing of malaise, but may not tell you when the bottom is, because the market will be pushed there by a number of factors.

[asragov]

The link between ARM resets and the bottom may not be exact.

For example, it might take some time for tighter credit standards to cause problems in the market.

I think that the graph helps give some insight into the timing of malaise, but may not tell you when the bottom is, because the market will be pushed there by a number of factors.

[asragov]

See also:

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/ (macro-level finance of bubbles, with a lot related to the housing bubble)

[asragov]

See also:

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/ (macro-level finance of bubbles, with a lot related to the housing bubble)

[asragov]

It’s not the yield.

The dollar has been a pretty lousy investment as currencies go, and holding a currency that is depreciating is not something that everyone wants to do.

Here is a chart of the dollar versus the Euro over the past five years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y

[asragov]

It’s not the yield.

The dollar has been a pretty lousy investment as currencies go, and holding a currency that is depreciating is not something that everyone wants to do.

Here is a chart of the dollar versus the Euro over the past five years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y

[Author]

Posts