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anxvariety
ParticipantIf you don’t mind living in a shoebox conversion in Chula Vista!
If it’s near breakeven, then it will probably be profitable if you wait until a real housing decline.
BTW, are you including property tax and HOA in the $1400 a month? I predict that you will present a gotcha!
ParticipantDude, no matter your beliefs, you should at least spell the man’s name properly if you wish to be taken seriously.
I dno’t wnat to eb takne sreilsouy.
ParticipantCookie cutter has sort of a bad name.. but most people don’t realize how often stuff is just a rehash of something that already exists and has been proven to work.. Obviously just because something is cheap doesn’t means its low quality..
Companies can make a lot of money selling something like software that another customer paid to build.. it also represents a big value proposition for the customer.. Each customer before paid to have the bugs worked out.. and it took time.. Now you can just buy the software and it’s ready to go, and alot less expensive. Won’t the manufactured housing industry following the same pattern? Building a house isn’t that complicated and when you do it a couple hundred thousand times and you work all the bugs/faulty designs out.
Why build a custom car, when for cheaper you can go get a Toyota with components that have been tested and refined/improved over the last 20 years?
ParticipantHas anyone noticed that older folks are not the best drivers? Maybe they can pull it off when they’re in their 60’s and 70’s but what happens after that? Are they all going to die in car wrecks driving to doctor’s appointments or to visit their families?
Hey I have an idea.. how about their families visit them????? There are mobile doctors also…
Suprisingly a few desert areas have a very strong medical presense due to the somewhat rare but usually severe off road activity accidents.
Poor air quality and sickness are two things I’d like to limit my exposure to when I’m older..
Participantdavelj, what I’m trying to say I think that manufactured housing companies will grow as traditional housing market deflates. I’d provide some reasons, but I already have.
ParticipantIt’s very interesting to me that his voters in the red states are low income rural folks who don’t benefit from his social policies (and whose children he’s sending to war). Why are they voting againts their interests?
White guilt..
ParticipantWhy do all of your posts talk about things vaguely without any conclusions, just references to your newsletter.. Rich posts articles that have graphs and leave the reader with a conclusion.
Just one persons opinion, obviously other people enjoy your posts.
ParticipantOn my way out so making this quick.. but I have a friend that works at a company that specalizes in loans to elderly.. it allows them to cash out equity and the balance isn’t due untilt he person dies.. probably a rip off, but I thought it was interesting that people would do that.
PS, that sounds about right as far as what a retired person might want.. but I think cost is going to be a big factor and might cause them to find some happy mediums on the proximity to family and desire to work part time factors… like maybe they’d move a little more remote where they would probalby make the same part-time, but have smaller expenses.. sure it’s just a guess without running any real numbers or surveys.
ParticipantYes, and some of those places are in California! Check out Adelanto.. inland empire inexpensive real estate(although it did boom recently) where you can live semi-remotely yet still have a commute-able distance to LA.
ParticipantThe trend is for more elderly to fall into poverty levels, so they would buy a trailer in a Yuma trailer park, not a $800K home in FL.
If solving poverty is a high priority issue, I’d love to help solve it! I would help them find something as described above for 150-200k.. that’s a pretty simple solution.
Plus, maybe others can correct me if I’m wrong.. but aren’t dry climates better for the elderly? Aren’t there less allergenics and germs? This is just a guess, maybe it’s the opposite.. Even if true I guess one could argue that heat is bad for elderly.. but I feel that overall desert living is pretty underrated.
My landlord is savvy with these things. After Hurricane Katrina, be hought rental property in Baton Rouge. He is cash flow positive, and the rental demand has pushed up rents and home prices. This move had not occured to me.
PS, FEMA bought a bunch of manufactured homes from CAV and others just after Katrina.. I thought that was interesting and sort of related to what you’re talking about.
The FEMA contracts accounted for 419 shipments during the quarter, or about $13 million in revenue, he said.
During 2005, Cavalier contracted to build a total of 2,638 homes for FEMA with a value, including shipping, of approximately $81 million. Cavalier said FEMA’s unique specifications translated into higher selling prices. Throughout 2005, Cavalier delivered 2,219 FEMA homes for revenue of $68 million.
“Aside from FEMA business, revenue for the first quarter still advanced from the year-earlier quarter even as non-FEMA home shipments declines slightly,” Roberson said. “We are pleased that Cavalier remained in the black for the first quarter of 2006, which is traditionally a seasonally slow period for our company and the industry, and one that in recent years has produced a net loss for the company.”
http://birmingham.bizjournals.com/birmingham/stories/2006/05/01/daily17.htmlParticipanthttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WGO&t=5y
Winnebago is doing just fine even with these gas prices! This tells me something!
ParticipantThe ‘where are people going to live’ is a valid question.. if rents and home prices are up what do you do? Especially if you’re retired and you need to lower your costs..
I challenge people to come up with a better solution for the living needs of this demograph: *dont take my math too literally
60 year old couple with 500,000 in the bank.. no need to commute but would like to be close enough to see children, grandchildren say within 100-200 miles
Rent?
2 bedrooms are now renting at $1500.. can you soak that up? Over 20 years that’s around 400k..Buy old cheap house?
Interested in doing maintenance on an older house.. what else can you afford? Where are you going to buy? Crappy weather.. I hope you’re well insulated!Buy Manufactured home?
Spend 60k on a manufactured home.. buy 30k lot in Borrego Springs.. Spend 20k hooking up water, gas, electric.. guess what, you’re done! 110k… Add 50k for whatever else you want.. done at 160k.
Second, the biggest cost of a home is land. Why would anyone buy land now for their manufactured home? I think buyers are on the fence on buying land now.Maybe in San Diego.. If you paid me enough I’d send you a list of at least 50 places where you can buy the land for less than most people spend on a vehicle.
As asianautica said, each industry has its own PEs. Look at Chevron with a PE of only 6 or 8 (??). Oil is going up, but such a low PE. Car companies have low PEs too. Software companies have much higher PEs.
Sorry but you can’t just say ‘oil is going up’ and have it work… Not that I absolutely disagree, but first nothign is 100% and second if you’re using it as a reason against be fair… What is more important for a person especially a retirees survival, gas or a place to live?
The reason I want to buy these stocks is that I see demand increasing.. just like you claimed that ‘oil is going up’ that gives you the vision to buy energy companies..
We’re not talking about beanie babies here, despite the housing market crashing people are going to need to live somwhere.
ParticipantManufactured homes seem to be “tainted” with regard to traditional financing sources. They don’t appear to have a great track record and this could be a very big component of this industry’s future.
Let me try a quick rebuttal if that’s what it’s called..
Well from what I understand ‘used cars’ aren’t exactly the most exciting thing for banks to finance either.. but it still happens.. If banks are going to survive they’ll have to be loaning out money.. to buy what? How about a non-speculative inexpensive place that someone will be living/have an interest in keeping?
Or by ‘tainted’ did you mean that people think of manufactured homes as trailer parks? If so sure.. seems like everything over the last 10 years has been all about pushing people into more expensive purchases by making them feel insecure or afraid about something… I see this next cycle as being the distillation of ‘needs’ from ‘wants’.
ParticipantThe bubble started in 1999, 2 years before the Fed dropped rates.
Me thinks dot com stock options and salarys had something to do with this….
Maybe it was Qualcomm?? 🙂
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