[an]

[quote=scaredyclassic]that sounds true. Everyone is a weed or no one is a weed.

Or maybe, if weed then no weed.

but maybe it’s also true that no one is a weed but people are still designated as weeds. The weeding process isn’t to remove actual weeds, but perceived weeds.

Or maybe just the system needs to designate weeds and non-weeds to justify itself. i guess we could substitute the word loser for weed.

kinda like my hillside is covered with california buckwheat, a native plant. My neighbor paid some landscapers a lot of money to tear all his out–weed?

all our ornamental plants are technically weeds.

Ca buckwheat is not a weed. Or is it?

i am thinking of joining the San Diego Bonsai Club.

One of my proudest accomplishments is no student debt for 3 kids; if Biden just gives every debtor 50k, it’ll make me sad. My wife says I shouldnt be so petty.

In conclusion, I’d say no one is a weed.[/quote]
Not `or` but `then`.

[an]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=Navydoc]Oh I know it’s about weeding, but do they have to pull weeds for FOUR YEARS? You know if you have what it takes to get through med school if you can do well (very well) in your freshman chemistry class. If I was going to wash out in the first year I could have used that time to change my education goals to something more achievable. In my case I could have saved 3 years of Penn State tuition. Guess it could have been worse, I could have gone to a place like Lehigh, Muhlenburg or Dickenson and paid 5 times more for the same education.[/quote]

You are the weed. Student debt is the pesticide. The four years is to see if you’re a hardy weed. Life itself is a weed whacker.

I am a very obstinate weed …[/quote]if everyone’s a weed, then no one is a weed.

[an]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO FED raises 75 points in July, the whole shebang goes.

LOL I guess well see if my theory holds that TPTB will reverse course in a heartbeat once the whole thing starts falling apart.[/quote]
https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart rate goes up much slower than it coming down. If it all fall apart in a few months, I can see we’ll be back to near 0% by this time next year.

[an]

Will mortgage crash like everything else and return back all of the gains during COVID? What would mortgage rate do if we get a massive recession?

[an]

[quote=flyer]Due to many factors, I honestly don’t believe we’re going to see the extreme opportunities we saw during the Great Recession, but, you never know, so being cash ready, is a great plan.[/quote]
Yep, my crystal ball is broken, so I have to be prepared for as many probable scenarios as possible.

[an]

[quote=scaredyclassic]There’s so many new buildings downtown, seems like that areas condos could be somewhat more vulnerable. Might just be wishful thinking. I really want one, but a nice one, 1/3 off.[/quote]
That would be awesome. Maybe I can pick up a place in Pacific Gate for a discount.

[an]

[quote=The-Shoveler]If the economy falls off a cliff (as some are saying it is), I would not be too surprised to see TPTB stomp on the accelerator again.[/quote]
Maybe the best time to buy is right before they stop on the accelerator but when things look really bleak with no sign of turning around, where sellers are willing to let their house go for a deal. Fingers cross that opportunity arise again, like it did in 2008-2011. Just make sure you got your cash ready. It was bruttle trying to buy in 2008. Constantly having to compete with all cash buyers. I lost out on so many deals to cash buyers offering less.

[an]

[quote=Coronita]Can’t wait… More rentals and cashflow possible…I’m hoping that there will be enough correction that if my kid goes to an out of state college, housing wherever my kid goes to will be much cheaper than now.[/quote]
You and me both. Especially in CA with Prop 13. Hopefully we’ll see some lower price to offset the higher rates. However, I wouldn’t count out wage inflation either.

[quote=Coronita]3% cash out refinance now looks pretty sweet lol…[/quote]I was literally one of the last few out the door. I don’t think we’ll have that opportunity again anytime soon.

[an]

[quote=Hobie][quote=Coronita]I think credit card companies are going to have a field day.[/quote]

Followed by a Government bailout. Anyone know the average credit card balances over the last year? Lots of people must be floating more credit card debt as they don’t have the cash flow to keep up with current cost increases.[/quote]
If they’re successful with forgiving student loan debt, I don’t see why they wouldn’t go after credit card debt next.

Then there’s this: https://calmatters.org/newsletters/whatmatters/2022/06/california-housing-down-payment/

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an]
My point is, the Fed has always been in the market of controlling the market. So, by your definition, the market has always been and always will be fake.

Since it always been and always will be fake, there’s probably 0% chance that it will stop being fake.[/quote]

Okay fair point, as long as the Fed has existed, markets haven’t been “free” and they have caused bubbles even before the advent of QE through their manipulation of fed funds rate.

But starting in 2009 the Fed started QE which is a whole nother level of market manipulation. And the direct result is the mother of all bubbles.[/quote]
So, what’s your point exactly? Will the fed disappear soon?

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]The market will no longer be fake, if and when the Fed gets out of it and there is true price discovery (aka free markets).[/quote]
So, never. If the market is always fake, then wouldn’t that just be the real market?[/quote]

What’s your point? The MBS market was not “fake” prior to 2009. So we certainly could return to free market eventually. But obviously our current economy is completely reliant on this Fed money printing/monetary expansion. So if Fed pulls back too quickly, the entire financial system would implode.[/quote]
My point is, the Fed has always been in the market of controlling the market. So, by your definition, the market has always been and always will be fake.

Since it always been and always will be fake, there’s probably 0% chance that it will stop being fake.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]The market will no longer be fake, if and when the Fed gets out of it and there is true price discovery (aka free markets).[/quote]
So, never. If the market is always fake, then wouldn’t that just be the real market?

[an]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]We’ll find out soon, as the tide goes out.
All I know is the bubble is popping, and the bubble was ginormous. When bubbles pop, it triggers margin calls, recessions and other cascading effects to the economy and personal finance. We’ve seen this before.[/quote]
How much decline in housing price are we talking about here?[/quote]

At a minimum I expect all Covid appreciation to get wiped out, that is a logical starting point. But beyond that who knows. Depends on what the Fed does. They completely control and manipulate the economy and housing market. They have not even begun to taper their MBS holdings yet and the market is already cratering.

The Fed currently owns 2.7 trillion in MBS, which is somewhere around 30% of the entire market, pretty crazy. Without Fed support there is no telling how low things could go. The entire market has been fake since 2009[/quote]
Cool, so 35-50% off from today. When do you expect the bottom to be?

Also, how long does it take for a market to move from fake to real? If a market has been fake for 13 years, would it need to be fake for another 13 years before we can call it a real market?

[an]

[quote=gzz]“ What I am curious about is how a bank would fund a mortgage at 6% when inflation is at 9%.”

They borrow at 0% in checking and 3% in savings accounts, loan at 6%.

There’s no human right to get a return on your savings above inflation. China has had inflation that is double savings account rates for about 30 years now.

All the recent drama is making people forget the long term worldwide trend is aging demographics and a glut of savings.[/quote]
https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/business/money-report/millennials-and-gen-zers-do-want-to-buy-homes-they-just-cant-afford-it-even-as-adults/2969830/?fbclid=IwAR0I75Q8f5lN2dgeH2tHCTj_x8fZPZKxqr07v8Iov1qcdUwYBS9A5jEe5vg

Looks like there’ll be a steady stream of renters for the foreseeable future.

[an]

[quote=deadzone]We’ll find out soon, as the tide goes out.
All I know is the bubble is popping, and the bubble was ginormous. When bubbles pop, it triggers margin calls, recessions and other cascading effects to the economy and personal finance. We’ve seen this before.[/quote]
How much decline in housing price are we talking about here?

[Author]

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