[an]

[quote=sdcellar]AN– Are you sure you’re looking at all the comps? As I recall, it should be a lot easier to find comps in your neighborhood, even from 10 years ago. The $350 seems like a little bit of an outlier.[/quote]
I can only find 1 house with my floor plan, 6 houses away on the same side of the street as mine sold in August of 2001. I’ve looked at other streets but there weren’t that many sold in 2000-2001. Those that sold between those 2 years sold for around that price as well. I found some that are 10% smaller than my house sold for about 10% less than the comp I used in 2001 as well. That same floor plan sell for around 10% less today. So I don’t think the comp I use is an outlier.

One house on the same street as mine and on the same side of the street with the same floor plan sold for 10% more in 2003 than my house. One comp in 2002 sold for 5% more than the 2001 comp I used. I found a couple comps in 1999 for ~25% less than the 2001 comp. So, it seems like there’s a big price jump between late 90s and early 2000s in my development. I don’t know why there’s a big jump around that time. But it doesn’t look like price rises linearly through the years.

Looking further back, I found comps (same floor plan) that were sold in late 80s/early 90s for ~10% less than the late 90s comps. So, between 1990-2001, price went up ~50%. I don’t have data of rates in 1990, but in 1992, rate was ~high 8%. I know people who bought houses in late 80s and they told me their rate was ~12-13%. So, if I take a guess and say in 1990, rate was 10%, their payment was ~15% less than my mortgage payment 20 years later. All the while, median income in my area went up 100% over the last 20 years, 50% over the last 10 years.

If you take the bottom of the last cycle (1994-1996), I paid ~140% more in nominal term and ~70% more in term of monthly payment.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]AN– Are you sure you’re looking at all the comps? As I recall, it should be a lot easier to find comps in your neighborhood, even from 10 years ago. The $350 seems like a little bit of an outlier.[/quote]
I can only find 1 house with my floor plan, 6 houses away on the same side of the street as mine sold in August of 2001. I’ve looked at other streets but there weren’t that many sold in 2000-2001. Those that sold between those 2 years sold for around that price as well. I found some that are 10% smaller than my house sold for about 10% less than the comp I used in 2001 as well. That same floor plan sell for around 10% less today. So I don’t think the comp I use is an outlier.

One house on the same street as mine and on the same side of the street with the same floor plan sold for 10% more in 2003 than my house. One comp in 2002 sold for 5% more than the 2001 comp I used. I found a couple comps in 1999 for ~25% less than the 2001 comp. So, it seems like there’s a big price jump between late 90s and early 2000s in my development. I don’t know why there’s a big jump around that time. But it doesn’t look like price rises linearly through the years.

Looking further back, I found comps (same floor plan) that were sold in late 80s/early 90s for ~10% less than the late 90s comps. So, between 1990-2001, price went up ~50%. I don’t have data of rates in 1990, but in 1992, rate was ~high 8%. I know people who bought houses in late 80s and they told me their rate was ~12-13%. So, if I take a guess and say in 1990, rate was 10%, their payment was ~15% less than my mortgage payment 20 years later. All the while, median income in my area went up 100% over the last 20 years, 50% over the last 10 years.

If you take the bottom of the last cycle (1994-1996), I paid ~140% more in nominal term and ~70% more in term of monthly payment.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.[/quote]
Here’s my data point. 24% above 2001 price (I can only find one good comp around 2000-2001). Using the price they paid and the rate when they paid vs the price I paid and the rate I got, I’m paying about 5% LESS per month that the comp in 2001.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.[/quote]
Here’s my data point. 24% above 2001 price (I can only find one good comp around 2000-2001). Using the price they paid and the rate when they paid vs the price I paid and the rate I got, I’m paying about 5% LESS per month that the comp in 2001.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.[/quote]
Here’s my data point. 24% above 2001 price (I can only find one good comp around 2000-2001). Using the price they paid and the rate when they paid vs the price I paid and the rate I got, I’m paying about 5% LESS per month that the comp in 2001.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.[/quote]
Here’s my data point. 24% above 2001 price (I can only find one good comp around 2000-2001). Using the price they paid and the rate when they paid vs the price I paid and the rate I got, I’m paying about 5% LESS per month that the comp in 2001.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.[/quote]
Here’s my data point. 24% above 2001 price (I can only find one good comp around 2000-2001). Using the price they paid and the rate when they paid vs the price I paid and the rate I got, I’m paying about 5% LESS per month that the comp in 2001.

[an]

– Snowboard in Whistler
– Snowboard in Utah
– Go to Fiji, all western Europe countries, including Rome.
– Revisit Moorea/Bora Bora
– Build a track car and go to various tracks with it
– Learn how to ski
– Go see the 7 wonders of the world

[an]

– Snowboard in Whistler
– Snowboard in Utah
– Go to Fiji, all western Europe countries, including Rome.
– Revisit Moorea/Bora Bora
– Build a track car and go to various tracks with it
– Learn how to ski
– Go see the 7 wonders of the world

[an]

– Snowboard in Whistler
– Snowboard in Utah
– Go to Fiji, all western Europe countries, including Rome.
– Revisit Moorea/Bora Bora
– Build a track car and go to various tracks with it
– Learn how to ski
– Go see the 7 wonders of the world

[an]

– Snowboard in Whistler
– Snowboard in Utah
– Go to Fiji, all western Europe countries, including Rome.
– Revisit Moorea/Bora Bora
– Build a track car and go to various tracks with it
– Learn how to ski
– Go see the 7 wonders of the world

[an]

– Snowboard in Whistler
– Snowboard in Utah
– Go to Fiji, all western Europe countries, including Rome.
– Revisit Moorea/Bora Bora
– Build a track car and go to various tracks with it
– Learn how to ski
– Go see the 7 wonders of the world

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just so you know what I meant. You need to balance the lower costs in other areas with higher risks. Specifically, in a place like the Central Valley (AN recommended) unemployment is much higher, finding quality tenants tougher and the risk of extended vacancies greater. Throw in 6 to 10% for a property manager and the inability to make minor repairs yourself and what looks very appealing can change. Not to say there arent good opportunites there or any other place, its just important to do thorough due diligence and have your eyes wide open in whatever you decide.

As for me, I will take a lower return to have the comfort of being able to self manage and keep a close eye on my rentals. Its different for everyone.

There is no such thing as a free lunch[/quote]
I agree looking out of SD County is not a good option for everyone. Like another saying goes, high risk high return. Like all investments, one has to assess one’s circumstances and do all the due diligence before jumping in. I have connections in the Central Valley, which allow me to make such an investment. If I don’t have those connections, I wouldn’t have considered Central Valley, but I might consider Murrieta or Temecula, since I can drive there.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just so you know what I meant. You need to balance the lower costs in other areas with higher risks. Specifically, in a place like the Central Valley (AN recommended) unemployment is much higher, finding quality tenants tougher and the risk of extended vacancies greater. Throw in 6 to 10% for a property manager and the inability to make minor repairs yourself and what looks very appealing can change. Not to say there arent good opportunites there or any other place, its just important to do thorough due diligence and have your eyes wide open in whatever you decide.

As for me, I will take a lower return to have the comfort of being able to self manage and keep a close eye on my rentals. Its different for everyone.

There is no such thing as a free lunch[/quote]
I agree looking out of SD County is not a good option for everyone. Like another saying goes, high risk high return. Like all investments, one has to assess one’s circumstances and do all the due diligence before jumping in. I have connections in the Central Valley, which allow me to make such an investment. If I don’t have those connections, I wouldn’t have considered Central Valley, but I might consider Murrieta or Temecula, since I can drive there.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]Just so you know what I meant. You need to balance the lower costs in other areas with higher risks. Specifically, in a place like the Central Valley (AN recommended) unemployment is much higher, finding quality tenants tougher and the risk of extended vacancies greater. Throw in 6 to 10% for a property manager and the inability to make minor repairs yourself and what looks very appealing can change. Not to say there arent good opportunites there or any other place, its just important to do thorough due diligence and have your eyes wide open in whatever you decide.

As for me, I will take a lower return to have the comfort of being able to self manage and keep a close eye on my rentals. Its different for everyone.

There is no such thing as a free lunch[/quote]
I agree looking out of SD County is not a good option for everyone. Like another saying goes, high risk high return. Like all investments, one has to assess one’s circumstances and do all the due diligence before jumping in. I have connections in the Central Valley, which allow me to make such an investment. If I don’t have those connections, I wouldn’t have considered Central Valley, but I might consider Murrieta or Temecula, since I can drive there.

[Author]

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