[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]I think you are seeing noise between 98 and 99 as prices were defintely on the upswing back then all over SD county. Could be a nicer lot or more upgraded home. From 1997 to 1999 prices went up roughly 10% per year. That picked up in 2000 and started going parabolic sometime in 2002 to 2003.[/quote]
The place sold in 2000 is in a worse lot. The place in 1998 is a view lot while the 2000 comp is not. I don’t know about condition of the house, so I can’t comment on that (but if I have to guess, I would say there isn’t any upgrades in those 2 places, especially if they were sold in the late 90s). Based on your experience, what kind of premium does a view lot have over a non view lot (canyon view)?

If you say things went parabolic in 2002-2003, what about 2001? The 2001 comp is on the same side of the street as the 2000 comp and price went up 44%. The 2003 comp is also on the same side as those 2 other comps and it was 38% higher than the 2001 comp. So, did it went parabolic in 2001 and start to taper off by 2003 (44% up in 1 year vs 38% up in the next 2 years)?

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]I think you are seeing noise between 98 and 99 as prices were defintely on the upswing back then all over SD county. Could be a nicer lot or more upgraded home. From 1997 to 1999 prices went up roughly 10% per year. That picked up in 2000 and started going parabolic sometime in 2002 to 2003.[/quote]
The place sold in 2000 is in a worse lot. The place in 1998 is a view lot while the 2000 comp is not. I don’t know about condition of the house, so I can’t comment on that (but if I have to guess, I would say there isn’t any upgrades in those 2 places, especially if they were sold in the late 90s). Based on your experience, what kind of premium does a view lot have over a non view lot (canyon view)?

If you say things went parabolic in 2002-2003, what about 2001? The 2001 comp is on the same side of the street as the 2000 comp and price went up 44%. The 2003 comp is also on the same side as those 2 other comps and it was 38% higher than the 2001 comp. So, did it went parabolic in 2001 and start to taper off by 2003 (44% up in 1 year vs 38% up in the next 2 years)?

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I’ll just assume whatever you’re using doesn’t show you everything, but model matches:

November 2000: $250,000
March 1999: $229,000
March 1999: $230,000

Quick average I could run for 2000-2200 sq. feet nearby that last sold in 2000 (excludes those that may have sold since): $271,575

Also, I don’t think rates were ever 10% in the 90’s.

You did help remind me though another way to approach our 2000 metric is to adjust old/new sales according to historical data (what you were scrambling to do). I’ve done this before, but now I think I have a better handle on it. You just can’t ignore some of the data.

If I could get a source for all sales, that’d be stupendous.[/quote]
I didn’t see those sales in 99, but I decided to look at more sales in the late 90s and I’ve found a sale in 1998 for $237k. I also found a sale in 2003 for $495k. So, it seems like price was declining between 98-99, increased a little in 2000 and HUGE in 2001-2003. Either those who bought in 98-2000 got lucky and got great deals or those in 2001-2003 overpaid by a good 50% more.

Like I said, there was something that caused my development to have a big price swing between 99-2002. There’s 1 house that’s 10% smaller than my house, sold for $210k in 99 and $380k in 2002. That’s 81% increase in 3 years for the exact same house w/ no upgrade.

I know someone who bought in 1989 and their rate was 13%. I would love to get a source for all sales in a list form as well that I can export to excel. It takes way too long to scan through sales in Zillow.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I’ll just assume whatever you’re using doesn’t show you everything, but model matches:

November 2000: $250,000
March 1999: $229,000
March 1999: $230,000

Quick average I could run for 2000-2200 sq. feet nearby that last sold in 2000 (excludes those that may have sold since): $271,575

Also, I don’t think rates were ever 10% in the 90’s.

You did help remind me though another way to approach our 2000 metric is to adjust old/new sales according to historical data (what you were scrambling to do). I’ve done this before, but now I think I have a better handle on it. You just can’t ignore some of the data.

If I could get a source for all sales, that’d be stupendous.[/quote]
I didn’t see those sales in 99, but I decided to look at more sales in the late 90s and I’ve found a sale in 1998 for $237k. I also found a sale in 2003 for $495k. So, it seems like price was declining between 98-99, increased a little in 2000 and HUGE in 2001-2003. Either those who bought in 98-2000 got lucky and got great deals or those in 2001-2003 overpaid by a good 50% more.

Like I said, there was something that caused my development to have a big price swing between 99-2002. There’s 1 house that’s 10% smaller than my house, sold for $210k in 99 and $380k in 2002. That’s 81% increase in 3 years for the exact same house w/ no upgrade.

I know someone who bought in 1989 and their rate was 13%. I would love to get a source for all sales in a list form as well that I can export to excel. It takes way too long to scan through sales in Zillow.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I’ll just assume whatever you’re using doesn’t show you everything, but model matches:

November 2000: $250,000
March 1999: $229,000
March 1999: $230,000

Quick average I could run for 2000-2200 sq. feet nearby that last sold in 2000 (excludes those that may have sold since): $271,575

Also, I don’t think rates were ever 10% in the 90’s.

You did help remind me though another way to approach our 2000 metric is to adjust old/new sales according to historical data (what you were scrambling to do). I’ve done this before, but now I think I have a better handle on it. You just can’t ignore some of the data.

If I could get a source for all sales, that’d be stupendous.[/quote]
I didn’t see those sales in 99, but I decided to look at more sales in the late 90s and I’ve found a sale in 1998 for $237k. I also found a sale in 2003 for $495k. So, it seems like price was declining between 98-99, increased a little in 2000 and HUGE in 2001-2003. Either those who bought in 98-2000 got lucky and got great deals or those in 2001-2003 overpaid by a good 50% more.

Like I said, there was something that caused my development to have a big price swing between 99-2002. There’s 1 house that’s 10% smaller than my house, sold for $210k in 99 and $380k in 2002. That’s 81% increase in 3 years for the exact same house w/ no upgrade.

I know someone who bought in 1989 and their rate was 13%. I would love to get a source for all sales in a list form as well that I can export to excel. It takes way too long to scan through sales in Zillow.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I’ll just assume whatever you’re using doesn’t show you everything, but model matches:

November 2000: $250,000
March 1999: $229,000
March 1999: $230,000

Quick average I could run for 2000-2200 sq. feet nearby that last sold in 2000 (excludes those that may have sold since): $271,575

Also, I don’t think rates were ever 10% in the 90’s.

You did help remind me though another way to approach our 2000 metric is to adjust old/new sales according to historical data (what you were scrambling to do). I’ve done this before, but now I think I have a better handle on it. You just can’t ignore some of the data.

If I could get a source for all sales, that’d be stupendous.[/quote]
I didn’t see those sales in 99, but I decided to look at more sales in the late 90s and I’ve found a sale in 1998 for $237k. I also found a sale in 2003 for $495k. So, it seems like price was declining between 98-99, increased a little in 2000 and HUGE in 2001-2003. Either those who bought in 98-2000 got lucky and got great deals or those in 2001-2003 overpaid by a good 50% more.

Like I said, there was something that caused my development to have a big price swing between 99-2002. There’s 1 house that’s 10% smaller than my house, sold for $210k in 99 and $380k in 2002. That’s 81% increase in 3 years for the exact same house w/ no upgrade.

I know someone who bought in 1989 and their rate was 13%. I would love to get a source for all sales in a list form as well that I can export to excel. It takes way too long to scan through sales in Zillow.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I’ll just assume whatever you’re using doesn’t show you everything, but model matches:

November 2000: $250,000
March 1999: $229,000
March 1999: $230,000

Quick average I could run for 2000-2200 sq. feet nearby that last sold in 2000 (excludes those that may have sold since): $271,575

Also, I don’t think rates were ever 10% in the 90’s.

You did help remind me though another way to approach our 2000 metric is to adjust old/new sales according to historical data (what you were scrambling to do). I’ve done this before, but now I think I have a better handle on it. You just can’t ignore some of the data.

If I could get a source for all sales, that’d be stupendous.[/quote]
I didn’t see those sales in 99, but I decided to look at more sales in the late 90s and I’ve found a sale in 1998 for $237k. I also found a sale in 2003 for $495k. So, it seems like price was declining between 98-99, increased a little in 2000 and HUGE in 2001-2003. Either those who bought in 98-2000 got lucky and got great deals or those in 2001-2003 overpaid by a good 50% more.

Like I said, there was something that caused my development to have a big price swing between 99-2002. There’s 1 house that’s 10% smaller than my house, sold for $210k in 99 and $380k in 2002. That’s 81% increase in 3 years for the exact same house w/ no upgrade.

I know someone who bought in 1989 and their rate was 13%. I would love to get a source for all sales in a list form as well that I can export to excel. It takes way too long to scan through sales in Zillow.

[an]

Solana Beach on the hill with lagoon and possibly ocean view.

[an]

Solana Beach on the hill with lagoon and possibly ocean view.

[an]

Solana Beach on the hill with lagoon and possibly ocean view.

[an]

Solana Beach on the hill with lagoon and possibly ocean view.

[an]

Solana Beach on the hill with lagoon and possibly ocean view.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]AN– Are you sure you’re looking at all the comps? As I recall, it should be a lot easier to find comps in your neighborhood, even from 10 years ago. The $350 seems like a little bit of an outlier.[/quote]
I can only find 1 house with my floor plan, 6 houses away on the same side of the street as mine sold in August of 2001. I’ve looked at other streets but there weren’t that many sold in 2000-2001. Those that sold between those 2 years sold for around that price as well. I found some that are 10% smaller than my house sold for about 10% less than the comp I used in 2001 as well. That same floor plan sell for around 10% less today. So I don’t think the comp I use is an outlier.

One house on the same street as mine and on the same side of the street with the same floor plan sold for 10% more in 2003 than my house. One comp in 2002 sold for 5% more than the 2001 comp I used. I found a couple comps in 1999 for ~25% less than the 2001 comp. So, it seems like there’s a big price jump between late 90s and early 2000s in my development. I don’t know why there’s a big jump around that time. But it doesn’t look like price rises linearly through the years.

Looking further back, I found comps (same floor plan) that were sold in late 80s/early 90s for ~10% less than the late 90s comps. So, between 1990-2001, price went up ~50%. I don’t have data of rates in 1990, but in 1992, rate was ~high 8%. I know people who bought houses in late 80s and they told me their rate was ~12-13%. So, if I take a guess and say in 1990, rate was 10%, their payment was ~15% less than my mortgage payment 20 years later. All the while, median income in my area went up 100% over the last 20 years, 50% over the last 10 years.

If you take the bottom of the last cycle (1994-1996), I paid ~140% more in nominal term and ~70% more in term of monthly payment.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]AN– Are you sure you’re looking at all the comps? As I recall, it should be a lot easier to find comps in your neighborhood, even from 10 years ago. The $350 seems like a little bit of an outlier.[/quote]
I can only find 1 house with my floor plan, 6 houses away on the same side of the street as mine sold in August of 2001. I’ve looked at other streets but there weren’t that many sold in 2000-2001. Those that sold between those 2 years sold for around that price as well. I found some that are 10% smaller than my house sold for about 10% less than the comp I used in 2001 as well. That same floor plan sell for around 10% less today. So I don’t think the comp I use is an outlier.

One house on the same street as mine and on the same side of the street with the same floor plan sold for 10% more in 2003 than my house. One comp in 2002 sold for 5% more than the 2001 comp I used. I found a couple comps in 1999 for ~25% less than the 2001 comp. So, it seems like there’s a big price jump between late 90s and early 2000s in my development. I don’t know why there’s a big jump around that time. But it doesn’t look like price rises linearly through the years.

Looking further back, I found comps (same floor plan) that were sold in late 80s/early 90s for ~10% less than the late 90s comps. So, between 1990-2001, price went up ~50%. I don’t have data of rates in 1990, but in 1992, rate was ~high 8%. I know people who bought houses in late 80s and they told me their rate was ~12-13%. So, if I take a guess and say in 1990, rate was 10%, their payment was ~15% less than my mortgage payment 20 years later. All the while, median income in my area went up 100% over the last 20 years, 50% over the last 10 years.

If you take the bottom of the last cycle (1994-1996), I paid ~140% more in nominal term and ~70% more in term of monthly payment.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]AN– Are you sure you’re looking at all the comps? As I recall, it should be a lot easier to find comps in your neighborhood, even from 10 years ago. The $350 seems like a little bit of an outlier.[/quote]
I can only find 1 house with my floor plan, 6 houses away on the same side of the street as mine sold in August of 2001. I’ve looked at other streets but there weren’t that many sold in 2000-2001. Those that sold between those 2 years sold for around that price as well. I found some that are 10% smaller than my house sold for about 10% less than the comp I used in 2001 as well. That same floor plan sell for around 10% less today. So I don’t think the comp I use is an outlier.

One house on the same street as mine and on the same side of the street with the same floor plan sold for 10% more in 2003 than my house. One comp in 2002 sold for 5% more than the 2001 comp I used. I found a couple comps in 1999 for ~25% less than the 2001 comp. So, it seems like there’s a big price jump between late 90s and early 2000s in my development. I don’t know why there’s a big jump around that time. But it doesn’t look like price rises linearly through the years.

Looking further back, I found comps (same floor plan) that were sold in late 80s/early 90s for ~10% less than the late 90s comps. So, between 1990-2001, price went up ~50%. I don’t have data of rates in 1990, but in 1992, rate was ~high 8%. I know people who bought houses in late 80s and they told me their rate was ~12-13%. So, if I take a guess and say in 1990, rate was 10%, their payment was ~15% less than my mortgage payment 20 years later. All the while, median income in my area went up 100% over the last 20 years, 50% over the last 10 years.

If you take the bottom of the last cycle (1994-1996), I paid ~140% more in nominal term and ~70% more in term of monthly payment.

[Author]

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