[an]

[quote=sdcellar]The 2000 lot is the same as the 2001 lot. The 1999s, same thing. I don’t know what ’98 place you’re talking about, but yeah, there are view lots near you (you’d have to adjust downward for that). You’re just looking at so much stuff it’s making your head spin. There was this thing called the bubble, you may have heard about it. Again, the 2001 looks like a tad bit of an outlier, we’re supposed to be using 2000, I gave you the average, a solid comp and you’re going further and further away from it. As I was saying, we can extrapolate from both ends, but when you have actuals…[/quote]
I said the ’00 lot is the same as the ’01 lot, that’s why I was wonder why there was a 44% increase w/in 1 year. Are you trying to say the bubble is the cause of the 44% increase between ’00 and ’01? I’ve been here long enough to have heard of the bubble, but I don’t believe the bubble started in earnest in 2000 to cause a 44% increase in 1 year.

You say the ’01 is an outlier and I’m telling you it’s not, because the houses in this development that sold in ’01 are all around that price. Since you obviously know the area, you can also verify what I said is true. The ’98 sold comp is a view lot AND it was sold HIGHER than the ’99 comps, that’s why I said the price dropped a good 5-10% between ’98 and ’99. If you adjust for view lot vs non view lot, ’98 sold comp is probably = to ’00 comp as well.

Lets take a step back and use the 2000 comp. My payment is 17%-22% higher than the payment would be in 2000 using the 2000 comp. Which is still less than the 50% income increase Rich stated between 2000-2010.

BTW, my original statement is still true and you’ve only changed the subject. Just to refresh your memory, here’s what I said:
[quote=AN]
Here’s my data point. 24% above 2001 price (I can only find one good comp around 2000-2001). Using the price they paid and the rate when they paid vs the price I paid and the rate I got, I’m paying about 5% LESS per month that the comp in 2001.[/quote]
Please back up your statement of the 2001 comp being an outlier. Bringing up ’99 and ’00 comp doesn’t prove that the ’01 comp is an outlier. To help you out, here are some more comps from ’01:
1800 sq-ft $313k
2000 sq-ft $360k
2000 sq-ft $359k
2000 sq-ft $340k
2300 sq-ft $359k
2300 sq-ft $359k
2300 sq-ft $343k
2300 sq-ft $338k

Some ’00 comps:
1600 sq-ft $260k
1600 sq-ft $274k
1600 sq-ft $267k
1800 sq-ft $275k
2300 sq-ft $285k
2300 sq-ft $324k

So, maybe the ’00 comp was more of an outlier.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]The 2000 lot is the same as the 2001 lot. The 1999s, same thing. I don’t know what ’98 place you’re talking about, but yeah, there are view lots near you (you’d have to adjust downward for that). You’re just looking at so much stuff it’s making your head spin. There was this thing called the bubble, you may have heard about it. Again, the 2001 looks like a tad bit of an outlier, we’re supposed to be using 2000, I gave you the average, a solid comp and you’re going further and further away from it. As I was saying, we can extrapolate from both ends, but when you have actuals…[/quote]
I said the ’00 lot is the same as the ’01 lot, that’s why I was wonder why there was a 44% increase w/in 1 year. Are you trying to say the bubble is the cause of the 44% increase between ’00 and ’01? I’ve been here long enough to have heard of the bubble, but I don’t believe the bubble started in earnest in 2000 to cause a 44% increase in 1 year.

You say the ’01 is an outlier and I’m telling you it’s not, because the houses in this development that sold in ’01 are all around that price. Since you obviously know the area, you can also verify what I said is true. The ’98 sold comp is a view lot AND it was sold HIGHER than the ’99 comps, that’s why I said the price dropped a good 5-10% between ’98 and ’99. If you adjust for view lot vs non view lot, ’98 sold comp is probably = to ’00 comp as well.

Lets take a step back and use the 2000 comp. My payment is 17%-22% higher than the payment would be in 2000 using the 2000 comp. Which is still less than the 50% income increase Rich stated between 2000-2010.

BTW, my original statement is still true and you’ve only changed the subject. Just to refresh your memory, here’s what I said:
[quote=AN]
Here’s my data point. 24% above 2001 price (I can only find one good comp around 2000-2001). Using the price they paid and the rate when they paid vs the price I paid and the rate I got, I’m paying about 5% LESS per month that the comp in 2001.[/quote]
Please back up your statement of the 2001 comp being an outlier. Bringing up ’99 and ’00 comp doesn’t prove that the ’01 comp is an outlier. To help you out, here are some more comps from ’01:
1800 sq-ft $313k
2000 sq-ft $360k
2000 sq-ft $359k
2000 sq-ft $340k
2300 sq-ft $359k
2300 sq-ft $359k
2300 sq-ft $343k
2300 sq-ft $338k

Some ’00 comps:
1600 sq-ft $260k
1600 sq-ft $274k
1600 sq-ft $267k
1800 sq-ft $275k
2300 sq-ft $285k
2300 sq-ft $324k

So, maybe the ’00 comp was more of an outlier.

[an]

Totally agree with SD R here. High food inflation will destroy lower middle class. Add in high cost of gas and they’re doubly screwed. They would have to resort to going to McDonald and buy $1 cheese burger.

[an]

Totally agree with SD R here. High food inflation will destroy lower middle class. Add in high cost of gas and they’re doubly screwed. They would have to resort to going to McDonald and buy $1 cheese burger.

[an]

Totally agree with SD R here. High food inflation will destroy lower middle class. Add in high cost of gas and they’re doubly screwed. They would have to resort to going to McDonald and buy $1 cheese burger.

[an]

Totally agree with SD R here. High food inflation will destroy lower middle class. Add in high cost of gas and they’re doubly screwed. They would have to resort to going to McDonald and buy $1 cheese burger.

[an]

Totally agree with SD R here. High food inflation will destroy lower middle class. Add in high cost of gas and they’re doubly screwed. They would have to resort to going to McDonald and buy $1 cheese burger.

[an]

[quote=Eugene]Mt Helix is a nice option, but it’s out if you have more than one child, because a lot of it is allocated to Spring Valley schools. So unless my rich uncle will give me $18,000/year/child to send kids to Francis Parker, I’d have to pass on that area.[/quote]
$18k/year is only for Jr. K. Sr. K – 5th is $19.5k and 6-12 is $23k.

Too bad my “uncle” won’t give me an option to keep part/all of the money to spend it else where. I would stay where I am and spend that $1M on my kids at LJ Country Day and what ever university they get into.

[an]

[quote=Eugene]Mt Helix is a nice option, but it’s out if you have more than one child, because a lot of it is allocated to Spring Valley schools. So unless my rich uncle will give me $18,000/year/child to send kids to Francis Parker, I’d have to pass on that area.[/quote]
$18k/year is only for Jr. K. Sr. K – 5th is $19.5k and 6-12 is $23k.

Too bad my “uncle” won’t give me an option to keep part/all of the money to spend it else where. I would stay where I am and spend that $1M on my kids at LJ Country Day and what ever university they get into.

[an]

[quote=Eugene]Mt Helix is a nice option, but it’s out if you have more than one child, because a lot of it is allocated to Spring Valley schools. So unless my rich uncle will give me $18,000/year/child to send kids to Francis Parker, I’d have to pass on that area.[/quote]
$18k/year is only for Jr. K. Sr. K – 5th is $19.5k and 6-12 is $23k.

Too bad my “uncle” won’t give me an option to keep part/all of the money to spend it else where. I would stay where I am and spend that $1M on my kids at LJ Country Day and what ever university they get into.

[an]

[quote=Eugene]Mt Helix is a nice option, but it’s out if you have more than one child, because a lot of it is allocated to Spring Valley schools. So unless my rich uncle will give me $18,000/year/child to send kids to Francis Parker, I’d have to pass on that area.[/quote]
$18k/year is only for Jr. K. Sr. K – 5th is $19.5k and 6-12 is $23k.

Too bad my “uncle” won’t give me an option to keep part/all of the money to spend it else where. I would stay where I am and spend that $1M on my kids at LJ Country Day and what ever university they get into.

[an]

[quote=Eugene]Mt Helix is a nice option, but it’s out if you have more than one child, because a lot of it is allocated to Spring Valley schools. So unless my rich uncle will give me $18,000/year/child to send kids to Francis Parker, I’d have to pass on that area.[/quote]
$18k/year is only for Jr. K. Sr. K – 5th is $19.5k and 6-12 is $23k.

Too bad my “uncle” won’t give me an option to keep part/all of the money to spend it else where. I would stay where I am and spend that $1M on my kids at LJ Country Day and what ever university they get into.

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]I think you are seeing noise between 98 and 99 as prices were defintely on the upswing back then all over SD county. Could be a nicer lot or more upgraded home. From 1997 to 1999 prices went up roughly 10% per year. That picked up in 2000 and started going parabolic sometime in 2002 to 2003.[/quote]
The place sold in 2000 is in a worse lot. The place in 1998 is a view lot while the 2000 comp is not. I don’t know about condition of the house, so I can’t comment on that (but if I have to guess, I would say there isn’t any upgrades in those 2 places, especially if they were sold in the late 90s). Based on your experience, what kind of premium does a view lot have over a non view lot (canyon view)?

If you say things went parabolic in 2002-2003, what about 2001? The 2001 comp is on the same side of the street as the 2000 comp and price went up 44%. The 2003 comp is also on the same side as those 2 other comps and it was 38% higher than the 2001 comp. So, did it went parabolic in 2001 and start to taper off by 2003 (44% up in 1 year vs 38% up in the next 2 years)?

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]I think you are seeing noise between 98 and 99 as prices were defintely on the upswing back then all over SD county. Could be a nicer lot or more upgraded home. From 1997 to 1999 prices went up roughly 10% per year. That picked up in 2000 and started going parabolic sometime in 2002 to 2003.[/quote]
The place sold in 2000 is in a worse lot. The place in 1998 is a view lot while the 2000 comp is not. I don’t know about condition of the house, so I can’t comment on that (but if I have to guess, I would say there isn’t any upgrades in those 2 places, especially if they were sold in the late 90s). Based on your experience, what kind of premium does a view lot have over a non view lot (canyon view)?

If you say things went parabolic in 2002-2003, what about 2001? The 2001 comp is on the same side of the street as the 2000 comp and price went up 44%. The 2003 comp is also on the same side as those 2 other comps and it was 38% higher than the 2001 comp. So, did it went parabolic in 2001 and start to taper off by 2003 (44% up in 1 year vs 38% up in the next 2 years)?

[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]I think you are seeing noise between 98 and 99 as prices were defintely on the upswing back then all over SD county. Could be a nicer lot or more upgraded home. From 1997 to 1999 prices went up roughly 10% per year. That picked up in 2000 and started going parabolic sometime in 2002 to 2003.[/quote]
The place sold in 2000 is in a worse lot. The place in 1998 is a view lot while the 2000 comp is not. I don’t know about condition of the house, so I can’t comment on that (but if I have to guess, I would say there isn’t any upgrades in those 2 places, especially if they were sold in the late 90s). Based on your experience, what kind of premium does a view lot have over a non view lot (canyon view)?

If you say things went parabolic in 2002-2003, what about 2001? The 2001 comp is on the same side of the street as the 2000 comp and price went up 44%. The 2003 comp is also on the same side as those 2 other comps and it was 38% higher than the 2001 comp. So, did it went parabolic in 2001 and start to taper off by 2003 (44% up in 1 year vs 38% up in the next 2 years)?

[Author]

Posts