[an]

Again, here are the comps for 2001:
2000 sq-ft $360k
2000 sq-ft $359k
2000 sq-ft $340k
2300 sq-ft $359k
2300 sq-ft $359k
2300 sq-ft $343k
2300 sq-ft $338k

As you can see, the 2300 sq-ft floor plan sell roughly for the same as the 2000 sq-ft floor plan in 2001. So, I have to assume it would be selling for similar prices in 2000 as well.

The 2 sold comps for the 2300 sq-ft house in 2000 are:
2300 sq-ft $285k
2300 sq-ft $324k

Also, the 2000 sq-ft floor plan usually sell for ~5-10% more than the 1800 sq-ft floor plan and the one 1800 sq-ft floor plan that was sold in 2000 is:
1800 sq-ft $275k

Also, the 2000 sq-ft floor plan usually sell for ~15% higher than the 1600 sq-ft floor plan. These are the sold comps for the 1600 sq-ft floor plan in 2000:
600 sq-ft $260k
1600 sq-ft $274k
1600 sq-ft $267k

So, if I have to guess, the 2000 sq-ft floor plan market value would be around $285k-$325k depending on location and condition.

Using the 3 comps in 2001, the median is $359k and the average is $353k. Using the $360k sold in May with rates ~7.15%, payment was 7% higher than mine. Using the $359k sold in August with rates 7%, payment was 5.7% higher than mine. Using the $340k sold in June with rates 7.11%, payment was 1% higher than mine.

Since there’s no exact sold comp in 2000 other than the $250k, I’ll just leave it at that and say that owner was paying 15-20% less than me. Still not bad for being 10 years apart.

[an]

Again, here are the comps for 2001:
2000 sq-ft $360k
2000 sq-ft $359k
2000 sq-ft $340k
2300 sq-ft $359k
2300 sq-ft $359k
2300 sq-ft $343k
2300 sq-ft $338k

As you can see, the 2300 sq-ft floor plan sell roughly for the same as the 2000 sq-ft floor plan in 2001. So, I have to assume it would be selling for similar prices in 2000 as well.

The 2 sold comps for the 2300 sq-ft house in 2000 are:
2300 sq-ft $285k
2300 sq-ft $324k

Also, the 2000 sq-ft floor plan usually sell for ~5-10% more than the 1800 sq-ft floor plan and the one 1800 sq-ft floor plan that was sold in 2000 is:
1800 sq-ft $275k

Also, the 2000 sq-ft floor plan usually sell for ~15% higher than the 1600 sq-ft floor plan. These are the sold comps for the 1600 sq-ft floor plan in 2000:
600 sq-ft $260k
1600 sq-ft $274k
1600 sq-ft $267k

So, if I have to guess, the 2000 sq-ft floor plan market value would be around $285k-$325k depending on location and condition.

Using the 3 comps in 2001, the median is $359k and the average is $353k. Using the $360k sold in May with rates ~7.15%, payment was 7% higher than mine. Using the $359k sold in August with rates 7%, payment was 5.7% higher than mine. Using the $340k sold in June with rates 7.11%, payment was 1% higher than mine.

Since there’s no exact sold comp in 2000 other than the $250k, I’ll just leave it at that and say that owner was paying 15-20% less than me. Still not bad for being 10 years apart.

[an]

BTW, I found this site for data:

http://users.ixpres.com/~gtriphan/index.html

It doesn’t have information about the property but it does have sales information dating back to 1997.

[an]

BTW, I found this site for data:

http://users.ixpres.com/~gtriphan/index.html

It doesn’t have information about the property but it does have sales information dating back to 1997.

[an]

BTW, I found this site for data:

http://users.ixpres.com/~gtriphan/index.html

It doesn’t have information about the property but it does have sales information dating back to 1997.

[an]

BTW, I found this site for data:

http://users.ixpres.com/~gtriphan/index.html

It doesn’t have information about the property but it does have sales information dating back to 1997.

[an]

BTW, I found this site for data:

http://users.ixpres.com/~gtriphan/index.html

It doesn’t have information about the property but it does have sales information dating back to 1997.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I got them by running 2000-2250 homes with a cap of $500K in 92126 and then zooming in on the number closest to your neighborhood until detail popped up (this varies by window size). It mostly includes houses between the major roads to the north, west and east of you.

Interest rates in 2000 were 8%, and 7% in 2001. Also turns out I was wrong on 1990 as interest rates were just a little higher than 10%. By ’91, there were 9.25% and got lower from there. 2000 was actually a bad year. The peak was 1981 at 18.46% (and 2.3 points!)[/quote]
Depending on when you buy in 2000, it got as high as 8.6% and as low as 7.1%. 2001, it got as low as 6.5% and as high as 7.2%.

Back to my original data point, it ranges from paying 10% less than the 2001 comp to paying ~15% more than the 2000 comp. There are variations depending on what you consider the comp would be in 00/01 and which interest rate you use, but you get the point.

I tried out redfin too and it’s missing some of the comp I provided, since they were sold between then and now as well. To get the most detail, going house to house in a development in Zillow is still the best.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I got them by running 2000-2250 homes with a cap of $500K in 92126 and then zooming in on the number closest to your neighborhood until detail popped up (this varies by window size). It mostly includes houses between the major roads to the north, west and east of you.

Interest rates in 2000 were 8%, and 7% in 2001. Also turns out I was wrong on 1990 as interest rates were just a little higher than 10%. By ’91, there were 9.25% and got lower from there. 2000 was actually a bad year. The peak was 1981 at 18.46% (and 2.3 points!)[/quote]
Depending on when you buy in 2000, it got as high as 8.6% and as low as 7.1%. 2001, it got as low as 6.5% and as high as 7.2%.

Back to my original data point, it ranges from paying 10% less than the 2001 comp to paying ~15% more than the 2000 comp. There are variations depending on what you consider the comp would be in 00/01 and which interest rate you use, but you get the point.

I tried out redfin too and it’s missing some of the comp I provided, since they were sold between then and now as well. To get the most detail, going house to house in a development in Zillow is still the best.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I got them by running 2000-2250 homes with a cap of $500K in 92126 and then zooming in on the number closest to your neighborhood until detail popped up (this varies by window size). It mostly includes houses between the major roads to the north, west and east of you.

Interest rates in 2000 were 8%, and 7% in 2001. Also turns out I was wrong on 1990 as interest rates were just a little higher than 10%. By ’91, there were 9.25% and got lower from there. 2000 was actually a bad year. The peak was 1981 at 18.46% (and 2.3 points!)[/quote]
Depending on when you buy in 2000, it got as high as 8.6% and as low as 7.1%. 2001, it got as low as 6.5% and as high as 7.2%.

Back to my original data point, it ranges from paying 10% less than the 2001 comp to paying ~15% more than the 2000 comp. There are variations depending on what you consider the comp would be in 00/01 and which interest rate you use, but you get the point.

I tried out redfin too and it’s missing some of the comp I provided, since they were sold between then and now as well. To get the most detail, going house to house in a development in Zillow is still the best.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I got them by running 2000-2250 homes with a cap of $500K in 92126 and then zooming in on the number closest to your neighborhood until detail popped up (this varies by window size). It mostly includes houses between the major roads to the north, west and east of you.

Interest rates in 2000 were 8%, and 7% in 2001. Also turns out I was wrong on 1990 as interest rates were just a little higher than 10%. By ’91, there were 9.25% and got lower from there. 2000 was actually a bad year. The peak was 1981 at 18.46% (and 2.3 points!)[/quote]
Depending on when you buy in 2000, it got as high as 8.6% and as low as 7.1%. 2001, it got as low as 6.5% and as high as 7.2%.

Back to my original data point, it ranges from paying 10% less than the 2001 comp to paying ~15% more than the 2000 comp. There are variations depending on what you consider the comp would be in 00/01 and which interest rate you use, but you get the point.

I tried out redfin too and it’s missing some of the comp I provided, since they were sold between then and now as well. To get the most detail, going house to house in a development in Zillow is still the best.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I got them by running 2000-2250 homes with a cap of $500K in 92126 and then zooming in on the number closest to your neighborhood until detail popped up (this varies by window size). It mostly includes houses between the major roads to the north, west and east of you.

Interest rates in 2000 were 8%, and 7% in 2001. Also turns out I was wrong on 1990 as interest rates were just a little higher than 10%. By ’91, there were 9.25% and got lower from there. 2000 was actually a bad year. The peak was 1981 at 18.46% (and 2.3 points!)[/quote]
Depending on when you buy in 2000, it got as high as 8.6% and as low as 7.1%. 2001, it got as low as 6.5% and as high as 7.2%.

Back to my original data point, it ranges from paying 10% less than the 2001 comp to paying ~15% more than the 2000 comp. There are variations depending on what you consider the comp would be in 00/01 and which interest rate you use, but you get the point.

I tried out redfin too and it’s missing some of the comp I provided, since they were sold between then and now as well. To get the most detail, going house to house in a development in Zillow is still the best.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I think you should always avoid using a single property when trying to go through these things and that was my point in the first place. I’m sure both the specific 2000 property and the 2001 have their considerations and I wouldn’t latch onto either one. That’s why I offered averages for 2000 (again, what’s supposed to be the working year for the exercise). I ran it for 2001 and here’s what I’ve got:

Year Sales Median Average
2000 30 $267,250 $285,800
2001 18 $322,750 $331,361

My data source is Redfin and as I mentioned before, at least one of the shortcomings is that it only provides information about the last sale of any given property. This will exclude properties that have sold since. One thing that’s really nice is that Redfin let’s you export the data, so it becomes easy to slice and dice it. That makes it easy to come up with metrics (like the ones above) quickly, but it’s important to realize that it’s also not the same thing as detailed property analysis (which is kind of in between the picking one or two houses, i.e. model matches and specific properties that are still pretty close). The latter could, of course, be used to achieve more tightly tuned (i.e. accurate) numbers.

You should check it out, it’s kind of fun. What I do is pick a zip, set basic criteria for maybe square footage and if I’m trying to weed out newer stuff, maybe a lower maximum price. Then I see what I get, zoom in and start exporting data. For the numbers above I got back 492 results and from there I could drill into years. There are flaws with the method to be sure, but seems like a reasonable proxy for tract homes.[/quote]
How did you get the 30 sales and 18 sales? Is that all 2000-2200 sq-ft in MM? I was talking specifically about my development and the comps I showed using the comp I can pull up, the median should be a little higher than that. However, even if I use your numbers, I’m paying 15% higher than the median in 2000 and 8% higher than the average in 2000. I’m paying 4% less than the median in 2001 and 7% less than the average in 2001. This is exactly what I said in my first post about my data point. I’m paying less in payment than those who bought in 2001.

If I use numbers for sales comp in my specific development, the number is even more favorable for me.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I think you should always avoid using a single property when trying to go through these things and that was my point in the first place. I’m sure both the specific 2000 property and the 2001 have their considerations and I wouldn’t latch onto either one. That’s why I offered averages for 2000 (again, what’s supposed to be the working year for the exercise). I ran it for 2001 and here’s what I’ve got:

Year Sales Median Average
2000 30 $267,250 $285,800
2001 18 $322,750 $331,361

My data source is Redfin and as I mentioned before, at least one of the shortcomings is that it only provides information about the last sale of any given property. This will exclude properties that have sold since. One thing that’s really nice is that Redfin let’s you export the data, so it becomes easy to slice and dice it. That makes it easy to come up with metrics (like the ones above) quickly, but it’s important to realize that it’s also not the same thing as detailed property analysis (which is kind of in between the picking one or two houses, i.e. model matches and specific properties that are still pretty close). The latter could, of course, be used to achieve more tightly tuned (i.e. accurate) numbers.

You should check it out, it’s kind of fun. What I do is pick a zip, set basic criteria for maybe square footage and if I’m trying to weed out newer stuff, maybe a lower maximum price. Then I see what I get, zoom in and start exporting data. For the numbers above I got back 492 results and from there I could drill into years. There are flaws with the method to be sure, but seems like a reasonable proxy for tract homes.[/quote]
How did you get the 30 sales and 18 sales? Is that all 2000-2200 sq-ft in MM? I was talking specifically about my development and the comps I showed using the comp I can pull up, the median should be a little higher than that. However, even if I use your numbers, I’m paying 15% higher than the median in 2000 and 8% higher than the average in 2000. I’m paying 4% less than the median in 2001 and 7% less than the average in 2001. This is exactly what I said in my first post about my data point. I’m paying less in payment than those who bought in 2001.

If I use numbers for sales comp in my specific development, the number is even more favorable for me.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]I think you should always avoid using a single property when trying to go through these things and that was my point in the first place. I’m sure both the specific 2000 property and the 2001 have their considerations and I wouldn’t latch onto either one. That’s why I offered averages for 2000 (again, what’s supposed to be the working year for the exercise). I ran it for 2001 and here’s what I’ve got:

Year Sales Median Average
2000 30 $267,250 $285,800
2001 18 $322,750 $331,361

My data source is Redfin and as I mentioned before, at least one of the shortcomings is that it only provides information about the last sale of any given property. This will exclude properties that have sold since. One thing that’s really nice is that Redfin let’s you export the data, so it becomes easy to slice and dice it. That makes it easy to come up with metrics (like the ones above) quickly, but it’s important to realize that it’s also not the same thing as detailed property analysis (which is kind of in between the picking one or two houses, i.e. model matches and specific properties that are still pretty close). The latter could, of course, be used to achieve more tightly tuned (i.e. accurate) numbers.

You should check it out, it’s kind of fun. What I do is pick a zip, set basic criteria for maybe square footage and if I’m trying to weed out newer stuff, maybe a lower maximum price. Then I see what I get, zoom in and start exporting data. For the numbers above I got back 492 results and from there I could drill into years. There are flaws with the method to be sure, but seems like a reasonable proxy for tract homes.[/quote]
How did you get the 30 sales and 18 sales? Is that all 2000-2200 sq-ft in MM? I was talking specifically about my development and the comps I showed using the comp I can pull up, the median should be a little higher than that. However, even if I use your numbers, I’m paying 15% higher than the median in 2000 and 8% higher than the average in 2000. I’m paying 4% less than the median in 2001 and 7% less than the average in 2001. This is exactly what I said in my first post about my data point. I’m paying less in payment than those who bought in 2001.

If I use numbers for sales comp in my specific development, the number is even more favorable for me.

[Author]

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