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an
ParticipantPD, I agree with you completely. Opportunity cost is high when you put down 100k. That’s $433/month @ 5.2% interest you can get from GMAC saving account. That’s why I just compare 0% down with rent, removing the opportunity cost variable makes it easier to compare.
January 4, 2007 at 5:24 PM in reply to: Whoever try to sell this house at this price is delusional. Period. #42722ParticipantEven Rancho Santa Fe does not go for $1M/acre, much less Poway. Definitely delusional.
ParticipantNeetaT, you can’t sell a $500k house that you still owe $500k on for $300k unless you bring $200k to the table. So your whole argument is flawed. You can’t take that $300k and buy another house cuz that $300k is not yours, it’s the bank. That $300k goes to pay the $500k mortgage. So yeah, you lost $200k.
Participantjg, I’m not sure if you’re referring to active military or civilian engineers working directly for the military. I’m talking about civilian engineers working directly for the military. My dad is an engineer working for the Navy. He started working for the Navy in the mid 80s so he went through the early 90s you were referring to. He specifically told me that people like him don’t get fire. If the base is closed, he will be the first in line for jobs at other bases that he want to apply to. If he doesn’t mind, they can find him a job and relocate our family to where ever that is. That’s why I feel civilians working for the military are secure.
ParticipantWhen I refer to government jobs, I mean actually working for the military as a civilian. My dad is an Engineer for the Navy. I know that if you work for the military, your job is 100% secure unless u do something really stupid. If the base close, they will relocate you somewhere else, but you’ll never be fired. My wife is a nurse, so I think her job is pretty safe. Regarding my job, I think I’m safe for at least a year or two. After that, who knows. But I think I’m flexible enough that I can do something else. It really all depends on when you bought. I know people who bought at the bottom of the last crash and they too advantage of the low rate, now their mortgage payment is only around $800/month. So if you buy a house at a price that’s supported by fundamental, then you can weather the storm better as a buyer.
Participantjg, that’s my exact point. You can’t count on a job lasting 30 years, so you have to save, even when you buy a house. Which mean you should not stretch to own a home. That’s why rent is a supporting fundamental.
ParticipantA mid 1970s 3bed/2bath 1500sq-ft house with 5000+sq-ft lot in Mira Mesa around 96-97 go for about $170k. The mortgage rate around that time was around 9%. That would mean monthly P+I = $1100/month. A 2bedroom/2bath apartment in Summerset Apartment, about 5-10 blocks away from this house was renting for $1000/month. If you subtract tax deduction and add in Tax+Insurance, it would come out to something very similar as well. That’s comparing buying a house vs rent an apartment. So, sdrealtor, this case plus yours shows that between 1996-1998, it cost the same to buy a house compare to rent an apartment. If you compare it to renting a similar house, I’m sure you’ll come out much more ahead.
ParticipantThe problem is no job is ever secure except for government jobs. So if you base buying a house on that criteria, then you’ll never buy a house. A job might be secure for 5-10 years, but no one can ever say their job is secure for 30 years, the duration of their mortgage.
ParticipantCONCHO, I agree with you. One day, it will be cheaper to buy a house than rent an apartment. That’s what happened at the bottom of the last crash. I know someone who bought a 3 bed/2bath house in Mira Mesa and their mortgage was just $100/month more than the cost of renting a 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa. But at that time, only people w/ good credit and down payment can buy houses.
December 27, 2006 at 1:50 PM in reply to: nesting young 4s Ranch experiences and puzzling questions #42331ParticipantThat definitely irks me too. That $4600 take home is possible only if you don’t put anything away for retirement. If you max out your 401k and ROTH IRA, it’ll probably be closer to $3500. So if you have 2 people making $90k each and both put away $ for retirement, their combined take home is $7000/month. Even $180k/year, the mortgage of a condo would be about 50% of their take home pay. That’s just crazy to me.
ParticipantI agree with you that another 20% and there will be more competition for quality properties. In Sorrento Valley, the area I’m most interested in, price is finally @ 2003 level. Here’s one that as sold earlier this month:
5466 Panoramic Ln, San Diego, CA 92121
12/01/2006: $630,000
08/28/2003: $614,700
03/15/1999: $320,000There’s another house near there that have the same sq-ft sold for $615k on 12/08/2006.
20% from this point will put this house to about $500k. Still a little high but much more reasonable when compare with rent. Of course, if rates rise, then the 20% will have to be higher. Then there’s one big variable that no one can predict, and that’s psychology. We’ll just have to wait and see.
ParticipantMade an offer for a 3bed/2bath condo/townhouse in Sorrento Valley.
List price: $525k
Offer price: $375k
Lowest seller will go: $450k
Last comp sold: ~$550k
Current lowest list price: $515kListing say owner is very motivated, but I guess not as motivated as I want.
ParticipantI vote for small 4-6% median decline like this year. But like-for-like will decline another 20-25% if not more. Price will continue decline but buyers will buy at the price point they planned to buy from the start. They just get more house for the $.
ParticipantPeople also believed that the .com crash was a blip the first year too. Then people hope and pray that it’ll turn back up soon. I mean, who would expect a 95% loss? It hasn’t happened since the great depression. I guess the point is, never say never and people will always hope it’s just a ‘blip’ when it passes the apex and on its’ way down.
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