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My point is that not all employment area will be affected in a recession/depression. Nurses/doctors for example. Even if people don’t have insurance/job, if they get sick they still have to go to the hospital. With a massive shortage in nurses and good doctors these days, I highly doubt they’ll be layoff. I don’t know about pharmacist, dentist, optometrist, but I’d think pharmacist & optometrist are pretty recession proof too. Especially with the baby boomer getting near the age where they need even more pills and everybody need to update their glasses/contacts prescriptions. Recession/depression or not, we have to see.

If you think the economy going to go into such a crapper, then might as well go short the market if you think it’s such a sure thing. I don’t agree with your view of the economy going into a depression, so my view point is a little different than yours.

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“Yes, Yes, Yes!!! This is exactly correct. This is why I responded to AN that I didin’t care about people who bought 18 years ago (assuming that they didn’t HELOC themselves into a bad position). They are irrelevent to some degree in this market.”

You really misread my post. I never said that people who bought 18 years ago will affect the market. What I meant to say is just like those who bought 18 years ago, if YOU buy a place a can sustain the payment for 18 years, you’ll be sitting pretty too. Maybe not as pretty as the guy who bought 2-5 years after you bought today but I’m pretty sure you’re still sitting pretty none the less. Like you, I don’t have that equity cushion either so my down payment will be cash I saved up. Hence for me, it’s all about “timing, timing, timing” because I want to be sitting prettier than the next guy 18 years from now :-).

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“… is necessarily true. Though I agree with much else of what you state. First of all – most people don’t raise a family for 30 years. My parents bought their final home together when I was 9 and sold it when I was 21… 12 years is a pretty good number – especially with the current trends in lifestyles, etc.”

cyphire, I agree with the rest of your post and regarding this statement, in general, I agree as well. However, there are a good portion of the people I know who live in their house for well over 15 years. For many of them, that was their first home as well. They truly can call it their home and they have no intention of moving anytime soon. My parents for example bought their house in 1989 and still living there now. 1/2 of the people on their street bought their around the same time (new) as well and they’re still there. Most of them are Asian of course, so that might be the reason. This just prove my point earlier that we all have our own opinion based on what we see and our personal experiences. It doesn’t always apply the the next person. I love your post because it’s doesn’t sound like you’re trying to shove your opinion down anyone’s throat and calling them names; but more of just expressing your opinion and data. Data is the reason I’m still here.

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“AN, my compensation is not high relative to my position, I’m fairly compensated given my relative position, but that compensation is high relative to the median HHI.

My point is not that overpaid people are in more jeopordy in a downturn (that is a given), but rather that companies will opt to downsize in general and it will get increasingly difficult to find high paying jobs period.”

JWM, do you consider $100-200k/year high relative to the median HHI? If yes, do you expect nurses, pharmacists, dentist, optometrist, etc. will need to worry about their jobs as well? Do you expect people to stop getting into accidents, getting sick, needing medicine, needing their teeth clean, getting their eyes checked out, if/when the recession come?

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patientlywaiting, I guess you haven’t ready any of my post for the last year since I start posting. I never said I would buy now. I’m only saying that we all have our own opinion about the market and they are not all the same. So the best we can do is give the OP all the data we have and let him make his own decision. Exerting your opinion on anyone is a futile path. I’d never try it.

“Why would a wife nag for a house? So she can decorate. How much does home decoration costs? It’s not cheap.”
What if she just want a home to raise a family for the next 30 years? Some people don’t care too much about making a buck as much as have a place to call their own. If everyone is really that $ conscious, then we all would see a major crash by now since everyone would sell their house in 2005. We all would also be driving 15 year old civics. Your point of view, while it’s suitable for yourself, does not apply to everyone. Please see this site motto. No one should trust you or I. So the best we can do is provide them the data and let them trust their own decision after having all the facts.

“My net-worth is higher than most individuals and I certainly don’t want to lose $300k, not even $100k. $100k equals about $665/mo for 30 years + property taxes. Wouldn’t you rather have the money to save or spend on what you want rather than sending it to the lender?”
There you go again with the $300k. Sorry but my crystal ball is not working right now, so I can’t confirm that. Also, your net-worth has nothing to do with this crystal ball statement and I could care less.

Regarding Airoso, they started building about 2 years ago and finished about 6-9 months ago. The beginning phases I think have more plan 3 & 4, that’s why we’re seeing more plan 3 & 4 on the resale market right now.

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Raybyrnes, great minds think alike :-). Anyways, I believe your scenario is shared by many in the health care industry and government jobs as well. Also, even in a recession, if you’re under paid and your company is not going out of business and you perform well at what you do, I don’t think you’ll be relatively safe. If you’re overpaid on the other hand, you’ll probably be the first to go. Also, I would think that in a recession, startup are the first to go.

Regarding Airoso, I’ve been following the resale of the complex very closely. I noticed that there’s not that many resale on the market and the only one that sell are the reasonable priced one. I see several plan 3 listing around $600-625k and sits. Recently, I saw a plan for REO listing @ $535k-ish and it it sold w/in a few weeks. Plan 4 and plan 3 at the peak were sold for around $600-650k IIRC. The lowest they’ve sold for before it was sold out was around $530-550k. One thing I haven’t seen recently is plan 1 & 2 on the resale market. Those were last sold for mid $400k. I would definitely be interested at $350-400k range as well. I don’t know about you but I’m also considering the largest plan in Wateridge (Sorrento Valley) and those new condo in PQ by Del Sur as well in that price range.

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patientlywaiting and JWM, I agree that if your job is not secure and your salary is considered high relative to your position, then yes, housing price is the least of your worry. What if you work for the health care industry? Do you foresee people getting less sick with the coming recession? Two nurses working 1-2 extra shift can easily make $200k/year between them. I foresee people getting more sick, not less. So I’d consider that pretty recession proof. If that’s the case, employment for them is not a worry.

patientlywaiting, your adding in options and such on top of the $600k price. What if the builder give those options as an incentive without raising the price? I highly doubt a house will lose 50% from the currently level, since it already lose about 10-30% already, depending on the area.

I highly doubt that a nagging person would stop nagging after high school. Would you recommend someone divorce their wife because she acts in a way that YOU dislike, the the husband?

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patientlywaiting, the original post mentioned a $380k condo. If that thing goes to $80k, I’ll buy 10. If you’re talking about the $600k house dropping to $300k, then I’ll buy several. We all have to pay for a place to live. It’s up to wtb to determine of the risk of losing $X on paper is worth it to keep his wife happy.

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jficquette, would your conclusion change if you financed the whole thing or even only 10% cash? Then wouldn’t it be a good deal getting $18k return a year on a $30k investment?

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At $320k assuming 0% down and 6.25% interest rate, monthly mortgage would be $1970. After tax deduction + tax + HOA(assume $200) = $1664. @ 7%, it goes up by $150. If you just consider the interest alone and compare it to rent, interest would be between 1650-1800/month. Add in tax deduction & HOA, that’d be $1500/month. I’d think it would be a fair price around $320k if that’s the kind of rent it fetches.

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Rustico, yes, all those does cross my mind. That’s why I am not buying right now. But we don’t know enough about wtb to make any kind of inform decision for him. Only he can do that. All we can do is give him the fact about the market and our estimate on where we think the market will go. There are infinite variables to determine whether it’s OK to buy now or not. I do realize the impact on ones life when buying at the right and wrong time. I could be retired by now if I bought 100 house in 2003 @ 0% down w/ 1% neg am and selling it in 2005. Do you know what kind of career wtb is in? How much cash his family, parents, relatives have? Those are important variables to ride out any significant down turn.

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“I don’t care about people who bought 18 years ago.”

Right cause your situation is the only one that matters and what happen the last 18 years ago is no telling what will happen 18 years from now.

“More like a few 100 thousand.”
And you know this how? Paper gain is not gain and paper loss is not a loss. If he live in this house for 30 years, I can bet you $100k that in 30 years, it’ll be more than what it is now.

Have you been paying attention and even read Rich’s primer? History will always repeat itself in a cyclical market. Did you even read the OP before you respond? I don’t think he ever mentioned he’ll sell. He’ll keep it as a rental. IF he keep it for 30+ years and seeing what happen in any 30 years period, then the chance if him being under water after that is almost 0.

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JWM in SD, wow, you’re a very good psychic. Not only can you predict the market but you can also predict people’s emotion and desire. I know people who bought at the peak of the last market, never checked in with the RE market again and still living in the same house they bought 18 years ago and have it almost paid off. To some, it’s more important to have permanent home to raise a family than saving a few thousands.

WTB made that decision with his wife and they’re the only one that matter. Good luck to you wtb. No one know about your circumstances more than you, so if you think it’s OK to buy after checking all the facts, then more power to you.

I agree 8 weeks is not long enough to make any noticeable difference. Might as well start shopping now.

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hipmatt & bsrsharma, you make it seems like all of CA is like SD, LA, and SF. Have you gone to places like Fresno and Bakersfield? There are plenty of flat land. Yet, it’s still 2X more expensive than houses in TX. Although TX have high property tax, they don’t have income tax. The valley is just as hot and cold as TX, so weather is not very desirable at all. The valley air is also extremely worse than TX. It’s always either unhealthy or bad when I watch the news.

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One thing I can think of is property tax. Their tax get readjust every year and I think it’s around 2-3% range. My number might be a little bit off but that might explain why people there don’t really want their house to go through the roof.

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