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CarlsbadMtnBiker, there a “subscribe post” link right under the OP, to the right of add new comment link.

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My theory is that older and desirable areas won’t be pull down by distress sales, but more of calibration to the other area in the county that people cross shop it with. Every area will have people wanting to sell. But people areas like Cardiff, Solana Beach, etc, can choose not to sell. So there won’t be too much distress sale to drastically pull down the price. However, it has x% premium over 4S, Carmel Valley, La Costa, Scripps Ranch, etc. When those newer areas drop due to distress sales because there were more speculations, etc. Eventually, buyers might dry up for Cardiff/Solana Beach to a point where the few distress seller might make a different in price. That’s why I think area like Cardiff/Solana Beach might have a semi-soft landing?

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Based on the assessed info on Zillow, it seems that # came from the original sale of $690k in 2004 and increase a little bit each year due to prop 13 for the last 3 years. The auction price hasn’t reset the assessed value yet I’d assume.

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hey SD Realtor, do you have any update on this? It’s now off the market but base on Zillow, it was sold on June 1st for $614,500. That’s the price they paid for it… winning bid was $585k + 5% auction fee = $615k. Since I see the sold price, will the auction price affect comp?

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Hey cyphire, thanks for the warning. However, I’m well aware of the possibilities. That’s the amazing thing about stocks, I can pull out on any given day if I feel the fundamental changed. Although I invests in Asia and Latin America, they are mostly large/mid cap value. Only time will tell if what happen here will affect the rest of the world as some predicted. My belief is more in line w/ Peter Schiff. I think you’ll get hurt most if you blindly invest without considering the opposite side. So, I’ll be ready to lock in my gain if my stop loss kicks in. I’ve bought these mutual funds awhile ago, so I have enough gain to be happy with even if my stop loss kicks in.

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one_muggle, very well said. This article probably mean government contractors, not directly government jobs. I know people who are engineers for the Navy. I talk to them and they said lay-off is the last thing on their mind. If they close the base, they have first priority in other job opening in other part of the country and the government will pay for relocation. They can choose not to move, but that’s their choice, not because they got laid off. They even have people who will look for jobs for them at other bases in the US. Unless there’s major shift in government like one_muggle stated, they’re pretty safe.

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“… of course, Peter Schiff went bearish on US equities in 2002, so even his timing was off… way off.”

His timing may be off, but many things he predicted came true. It just come to show how hard it is to time the market but fundamentals are easier to spot. Which is why he’s bullish in international vs US. He believe the international fundamentals are still strong while the US need a healthy correction. We’ll see if he’s right this time or not. I’m just saying that most people are not 100% bearish about everything.

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Any see any hard number yet? I.E. how much they’re dropping?

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“I gotta make this comment. Why are there so many on piggington.com saavy enough to see the crash in real estate prices, yet they don’t see how stock markets will obviously be negatively affected by the real estate bubble imploding? I don’t understand why so many on here are holding long positions in stock markets.”

You should ask one of the biggest publicized bear out there, Peter Schiff, who predicted a lot of this. He’s very bullish on international market.

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“for some reason, I love this thread!! .>”
Admit it, you love eFight, eArgument and ePosturing :-D.

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Some of the hidden “gems” I find in SD that hasn’t already been said is “Carne Asada Fries” at the local Roberto’s. It’s not gourmet food by any stretch of imagination, but it’s sure tasty. I find that only So.Cal. Mexican taco shop has this too.

Then there’s the Asian food. Dim Sum is decent price and quite tasty compare to the best of them. There’s an abundant of Vietnamese food from all regions of Vietnam. I find Sushi on the Rocks make the best rolls around. Chinese restaurants with excellent lobster/crab at a very reasonable price; I’d recommend Lee’s Garden and Ly’s Garden. Both are in El Cajon.

We also have Donovan’s who were ranked #1 stake house in the US a few years back.

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Bugs, the only reason I say a “L” shape recovery is hard to call bottom because it might be a false bottom. Where it would stay flat for several months/years before taking another dive.

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Just because we’re only up less than 1% from last year doesn’t make it a sign the bottom is coming. There’s a major difference between this time last year and right now: 1)Inventory drop this time last year compare to August, this year, we’re still rising. 2) We’re now at record high inventory again. Doesn’t matter how you slice it, it’s still record inventory. 3) We’re also at record high in month of supply as well since sales are down drastically compare to last year and inventory is “flat” compare to last year. 4) Last year did not have the jumbo/sub-prime issue that this year have. 5) Last year does not have a major reset coming in a month (October is supposed to have $14B worth of loan resetting, IIRC).

The next 2-3 months will be very telling how far this rabbit hole goes. We already taken the red pill, now enjoy the ride.

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Without going too much in the specific, I think the world economy is going to be OK for the long term. So I buy mutual funds specialized in China, Asia, Latin America and emerging market. I do own some stocks with my play money in oil refiner and tech for now. Those stocks are very short term and a small amount. Obviously, there’s a decent % in cash/online saving account making a decent 5.3% as well.

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I agree that if you’re aware of all the possibilities, you’ll be more prepared to act regardless how the market act. Oh, and I have no intention of buying today, so I guess I have a built in prosperity allowance already :-).

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