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4plexowner
ParticipantTell a big enough lie often enough and the people will believe it.
Worked for hitler – seems to be working for Bush & crew inre 9/11.
ParticipantIf you haven’t closed yet RUN don’t walk away from your purchase. If you have to give up your deposit, do so – take a small hit now or a huge hit later.
Condos values are going to drop significantly as more and more condos come online downtown and throughout San Diego.
When I am analyzing where San Diego prices are headed I look at three categories of property: trash, decent, premium.
ALL condos fall into the ‘trash’ category and I am expecting a 50-60% decline for them.
Not to mention that your current HOA fees are only going to go up from here.
ParticipantSilver’s up 42% in 2006.
Silver is going to at least $80/oz and gold is going to at least $1650/oz.
Got silver and gold???
ParticipantDRE only gets involved for 5 unit and larger complexes.
Once the original CCR and bylaws are recorded, the HOA can do whatever they want to the HOA fees as long as they follow legal guidelines for holding an HOA meeting.
Until the first unit sells, the builder/developer IS the HOA so even if the CCR / bylaws said that HOA fee is $225, the HOA (builder/developer) could hold an HOA meeting and vote to increase HOA fee to $380.
If you have a legal issue with the HOA fee, which I doubt, it would be that the fee increase was not voted on at a proper HOA meeting. You might ask for the HOA minutes from the meeting where the fee was increased – you should have access to these as a unit owner.
I converted a 4 unit complex to condos and never had to say what the HOA fee would be – it is not listed in either the CCR or bylaws (again, 4 units vs 5+ so no DRE involvement). During the escrow process I told the buyers what the HOA fee would be but I could have changed it prior to them closing escrow because I was the only HOA member.
Not sure about the insurance. Your lender should not have closed your loan without seeing documentation showing that the HOA had enough insurance on the overall property. Your lender should also have required that you personally had enough insurance to cover the non-HOA portion of the property (ie, your unit). If your loan closed, you should have enough insurance – it isn’t unreasonable for the management company to ask to see your insurance policy although they should know that you couldn’t have obtained a loan without it.
ParticipantWTC 7 also fell at free fall speed.
Common sense tells me that NO building can fall at free fall speed unless there is absolutely no resistance provided by the support structure (wood, steel or silly putty) for the building.
Explosive demolition of all the support structure DOES explain how the two towers and WTC 7 collapsed at free fall speed.
Related points that have not been explained:
> there was molten metal at ground zero days after the towers collapsed
> at least one of the pictures of ground zero show metal supports (huge I-beams) that have been severed diagonally – this is a standard part of controlled demolition which is accomplished using shaped thermite charges – the diagonal cuts cause the building being demolished to ‘walk’ off its supports – the supports at ground zero weren’t bent or torn which is what I would expect from a non-controlled collapse
ParticipantThe supply of US dollars is currently being increased at an annual rate of 11.5%.
Until rental rates increase by MORE than 11.5%, rents are not going up – it is the US dollar that is going down.
ParticipantOne of the many interesting aspects of 9/11 is the fact that the towers collapsed at all.
There have been numerous high-rise buildings that have caught fire in the past. Some of them had several floors burning for more than 24 hours and didn’t fall down.
And then 9/11 occurs – first time in history that a steel-framed building collapses due to fire – it might be reasonable to think that forensic engineers would be allowed to study the steel members that failed so buildings could be built better in the future.
But what happened at ‘ground-zero’?
The site was sanitized as quickly as possible.
The steel was sold to recyclers who promised to melt it quickly.
GPS units were placed on the trucks used to haul the steel to ensure that the steel went directly to the recyclers and nowhere else. One driver was fired because he took a two hour lunch break while he had a load of steel on his truck.
Does any of this prove that 9/11 was an inside job? Nope – but it sure makes me wonder.
I have a degree in aerospace engineering. The history of aerospace is replete with accidents – mankind didn’t learn to fly without breaking a few eggs. When an accident occurred, the remains of the vehicle were studied so the vehicle could be built better next time. Metals were closely analyzed to determine exactly how the failure occurred – did the metal fatigue and gradually give way? – was the metal brittle and snapped? – was the metal not strong enough and tore?
When I contrast the degree of study given to aerospace accidents to what happened at ground zero, the cleanup of ground zero looks like a cover-up. It appears that the metal remains of the towers were intentionally destroyed before forensic engineers could examine them.
Does this prove anything? Nope – just more questions that aren’t answered by the government’s version of what happened on 9/11.
ParticipantEach time I do research on 9/11 I come up with some new interesting information.
Here are some tidbits from my last research:
> asbestos had been used throughout the towers – EPA had issued several waivers allowing asbestos cleanup to be delayed but were increasing the pressure for the asbestos to be removed – estimates for cleanup were in the $1 billion range and none of the insurance companies covering the towers were willing to pay for the cleanup
> the towers were transferred from the New York Port Authority to private ownership (Larry Silversteen) six weeks prior to 9/11 – the towers had become a white elephant for the Port Authority – lots of vacancies and huge expense to provide utilities for the towers – even oxygen had to be provided because the towers were airtight – ie, Port Authority was losing lots of money on the towers and the losses were getting worse as vacancies increased
> Silversteen reworked the insurance policies for the WTC complex to explicitly provide coverage for acts of terrorism
> Silversteen obtained explicit rights to rebuild the WTC complex before completing the leases
> George Bush’s brother was president of the company that provided security for the WTC complex and Dulles airport where one of the aircraft was hijacked – his cousin was CEO of the same company
Other details I have come across in the past:
> there were bomb-sniffing dogs present in the towers 24/7 until two weeks prior to 9/11
> workers in the towers testify that there were unexplained power outages and building evacuations during the two weeks prior to 9/11
> workers in the towers testify that large sections of the towers (whole floors) were vacant and that construction noise could be heard on some of these floors in the weeks prior to 9/11
> legal files for prosecuting the Enron related trials were stored in WTC 7 along with many other files for sensitive SEC investigations
Perhaps my cynical nature and high level of skepticism make me susceptible to conspiracy theories but I believe the story our government is telling us about 9/11 is mostly fabrication.
There are many unexplained questions about how the two towers collapsed and the rarely mentioned collapse of WTC 7.
There are also many coincidental facts that support the idea that 9/11 was done for financial gain. Without considering whether it was a conspiracy or not, look at these aspects of 9/11: it destroyed two asbestos ridden buildings that were losing money because nobody wanted to rent space in them anymore – it destroyed legal files being used to prosecute Enron trials and other trials involving Wall Street bigshots – Silversteen gained several billion dollars in insurance payouts – Silversteen got the right to rebuild the WTC complex.
The biggest benefit from 9/11 went to the neo-cons who used it as a reason to launch the ‘forever war on terror’. They have continued to point to 9/11 as they have destroyed the US Constitution and Bill of Rights, dropped habeas corpus, passed Patriot Acts I & II, legalized the use of terror against anyone deemed an ‘unlawful combatant’ and taken many other actions which have reduced the freedom of us, the American citizens.
If you have a hard time believing that the government would do something like 9/11 to its own people, I suggest that you do some research on ‘false flag’ events – just Google on the term and check out some of the links. Watch for these in particular: Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin, USS Liberty.
ParticipantI suspect the Amero will be introduced before the dollar completely tanks.
Some of the articles I have read imply that a currency crisis is being created intentionally so the sheeple in US/Canada/Mexico will accept the Amero as the solution to the problem.
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A standard tactic in sales and government is to make the customer or citizen aware of a ‘problem’ and then present the solution to the problem
problem: currency crisis / dollar losing value
solution: AmeroMost customers/citizens won’t realize that they have been manipulated.
~
The Amero will be just another fiat currency for the elites to debase – ultimately it will be added to the list of dead fiat currencies along with the US dollar.
Got silver and gold???
ParticipantThe threads that I’ve noticed recently where people have talked about rent increases all mentioned increases under 10% in the last year.
Since true inflation is running at 9-10% (at least) these increases are just keeping up with inflation.
One person mentioned a 25% increase when his lease came up for renewal. Accepting such an increase would be less than intelligent IMO – the landlord is just trying to stop or reduce his negative cashflow and if his tenant accepts the increase he wins – more likely is that his tenant moves out and the rental unit lingers on the market as sdcellar is saying.
A landlord walks a fine line when trying to raise rents. Most tenants will accept a small increase because of the hassle of moving but there is a threshold where the rent increase will cause the tenant to move. In my experience, ANY increase in rent causes friction between landlord and tenant since most tenants assume that the landlord is already getting rich at the tenant’s expense. I never increased rents in my units unless the tenant did something to piss me off – at that point, it didn’t matter to me whether they moved or not because they had demonstrated that they weren’t good tenants.
ParticipantAnyone who thinks rents in San Diego will rise needs to factor several thousand rental condos into their analysis.
Prices are set at the margin and a glut of rental condos downtown is going to supress rents throughout San Diego.
Single family houses sitting on their own lots may be a different story but I wouldn’t invest my money on that assumption.
November 11, 2006 at 5:16 PM in reply to: I couldn’t convince my neighbor there’s a housing bubble #39781ParticipantPsychology of Denial
If you really care about influencing the opinions of others, I would recommend that you read a little bit about the ‘psychology of denial’.
The psychology of denial says that once a human being has made up their mind about something you have almost zero chance of changing their mind.
Related to the psychology of denial is a feature of the human brain called the reticular activating system (RAS).
The RAS causes us to focus on what we are interested in and filter out all of the other extraneous input. For example, you go buy a new car and as you are driving home you ‘happen’ to see numerous cars just like yours – your RAS is alerting you to something you are interested in – and your RAS had been filtering all those cars out until you bought one.
The RAS also helps up maintain opinions that we hold. If I decide that the world is flat (and can convince my brain of that), my reticular activating system will cause me to focus on all the ‘facts’ that support my (incorrect) view of the world. My RAS will also filter out (deny) any facts which would upset my view of the world being flat.
So, how does this apply to real estate?
Currently we have a nation of people that mostly believe: “real estate only goes up”; “you can’t go wrong with real estate”; “it is better to own than rent”; etc.
Some local beliefs: “we are running out of land in San Diego”; “more people are moving to San Diego everyday”; “if I don’t buy now I will be priced out of the market”; etc.
The RAS’s of the people holding these beliefs cause them to focus on the positive news about real estate (which is provided in spades by the real estate industry, US government, media, etc) and filter out (deny) any of the reality about the current trends in real estate (which we discuss in this forum).
When you try to point out real estate realities to these people their RAS has to do something to allow them to deny your input. Categorizing you as a ‘gloom and doomer’ or ‘pessimist’ or even ‘arrogant asshole’ helps them maintain their (delusional) reality.
I have been on the ‘gloom and doom’ bandwagon for about 4 years now and I have made numerous attempts to educate family and friends about the future we are facing here in America.
None of the people that I tried to educate about silver and gold purchased any (too bad – could have bought gold for about $375 and silver for less than $5).
None of the people that I have tried to educate about real estate have been influenced by my input either.
Between 2002 and 2005 I sold five fourplexes and explained to many people why (the market is about to tank) (yes, I sold “too early”). Regardless of my words and actions, a family member bought a 400K house in 2003 and one of my co-workers bought a 900K house in late 2005.
Anyway, my point is that you shouldn’t get worked up about people denying what you perceive to be reality. They will eventually realize that you were right and then they will like you even less!!!
ParticipantAnd how many more times do we have to see powayseller pimp her new website?
For less than $10/mo we can read more of her opinionated ‘analysis’?
For less than $10/mo we can read her re-posting of articles that are available on other web sites for free?
Hahahaha!
ParticipantExcellent points, sdduuuude (did I get enough ‘u’s in there?).
How about if we just say, “The bubble has popped and it’s a long way to the bottom.”?
As an investor, all of this talk about reversion to the mean and what will the inflation-adjusted-mean-price be is just mental-masturbation.
When it makes sense to buy real estate in San Diego again I will be buying.
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