[4plexowner]

These kind of games will continue until we abolish the Federal Reserve and re-instate Constitutional money which is gold and silver ONLY.

[4plexowner]

masayako – the chief accountant for our country has acknowledged that we have $40 trillion dollars in unfunded liabilities – other analysts put the number at $70 trillion – this is primarily the promises we have made to the boomers (Soc Sec, Medicaire, prescrip drugs)

debt-to-income ratios are at historic levels (bad) in all segments of our society (individuals and gov) – ie, the debt load on individuals and gov is heavier than it has ever been

central banks around the world are signalling their lack of interest in the US dollar

oil exporting countries are moving away from selling oil in US dollars

outsourcing of US jobs to other countries has been ongoing for several years now and still continues

inre investments not being counted as savings: the average 401K has $50K in it and about 33% of all 401Ks have less than $35K – ie, there isn’t a great deal of ‘hidden’ savings in retirement plans

I could go on but it gets old

[4plexowner]

Here’s an article about potential foreclosure ban in Mass – the proposed legislation is to “protect thousands of homeowners who may have been victimized by predatory lenders”

http://www.southcoasttoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070328/NEWS/703280337/1011/TOWN10

[4plexowner]

Here’s a link to the mortgage reset chart

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html

If I understand you, PerryChase, you are saying that because of lower interest rates the 2nd wave of ARMs will have more options for re-financing (and maybe a better market to sell into)

That seems reasonable with the caveat that lower interest rates don’t do much for the upside-down homedebtor

Correct me if I’m wrong here – the ARMs resetting in 2010/2011 are mostly 5 yr fix / 25 yr float and they originated in 2005/2006 ? some of them must be 7 and 10 year fixed ?

Looking at the chart I see that a significant portion of the ARMs resetting in 2010/2011 are Option ARMs – these loans are potentially neg-am so by 2010/2011 they could be ridiculously upside-down (depending on where market prices are)

My scenario for ARMageddon in 2010/2011 is based on two assumptions:
1. these ARMs originated in 2005/2006 (ie, peak prices and the peak of 100% financed, liar loans, etc)
2. at reset time most of these mortgages will be underwater (ie, the overall trend in real estate prices remains down between now and then)

I like this idea of a final washout in prices because it goes along with what I understand about financial markets in general – ie, moves tend to finish on high volume – this may not be applicable to the real estate market since the ‘bottom’ is likely to last for several years (ie, basically flat for 2-3 yrs) while the overhang of inventory is worked off

~

As I write this, I am dismayed to remember having read today that one of the northeastern states is about to ban all current and upcoming foreclosures – because of actions like this it is hard to say what will really happen to the real estate market in coming years – perhaps someday we will have free markets …

[4plexowner]

PerryChase – I have been calling for a bottom in 2008-2010 but seeing the chart of ARM resets has caused me to re-think this date range

The chart shows that a huge chunk of ARMS are going to reset in both 2010 and 2011

A possible scenario I am considering – since most market moves end with high volume (greedy fools buying at the top and fearful fools selling at the bottom) it is possible that the 2010-2011 timeframe will be the high-volume end of the real estate decline

Anyone that is forced to sell in 2010/2011 will be selling into a market that has been soft/declining for 5 years already – not a good time to sell but their selling could create a real bottom (as opposed to the bottoms that have been called already and continue to be called)

As the Chinese say: “May you live in interesting times.”

[4plexowner]

Our government is letting huge numbers of illegals into the country because they know Social Security and the other entitlement programs are doomed without an influx of new people

Our entitlement programs are ponzi schemes and we are running out of new suckers to come in at the bottom – these illegal immigrants provide the pool of suckers

Part of this plan is to grant amnesty to all the illegal immigrants so we can fully integrate them into the ongoing ponzi scheme – notice that all the ‘immigration reform’ being discussed includes some type of amnesty

I think it comes down to a choice: do we
1) accept that Social Security, Medicare and all the other entitlement programs have to be drastically pared down/eliminated, or do we
2) allow another 100-300 million people to immigrate into this country and accept the lower standard of living that will go along with that increased population?

It appears to me that the powers that be are choosing option ‘2’. I say this based on our wide-open southern borders and the move towards a North American Union.

[4plexowner]

bias in the equity markets is heavily in the upward direction – going short is a losing proposition for most people

upward bias is due to:

1. almost all 401K/IRA money is forced into long-only positions and this is mostly buy-and-hold money – ie, there is a long-term steady upward push to equity markets from the monthly injection of retirement money

2. inflation of money supply – currently happening at about an 11-12% rate in US – Russia increased their M-2 money supply by 48% last year – all the central banks are competing to devalue their currencies faster than the other guy – all this new money has to go somewhere and lots of it feeds into the equity markets pushing them upwards

because of the upward bias, shorting the markets becomes a game of short-term timing which most people are going to lose

[4plexowner]

Let’s see, we have:

> 3400 condos currently under construction downtown – current sales rate is 40 to 50 per month

> 30-40% of current 15,000 MLS listings are vacant – housing that won’t sell becomes rentals so this is another 4,000 to 7,000 rental units once the owners realize they aren’t going to sell (or the bank forecloses and …)

> some number of new construction homes and condos on the market but not counted in the MLS numbers

> net out-migration from San Diego

explain to me how rents are going to increase …

[4plexowner]

“major metropolis within easy reach”

you obviously haven’t tried commuting in the 15 corridor

[4plexowner]

We can hope that Ron Paul is our next president but I don’t think it is likely

He is speaking the truth in a world that isn’t interested in hearing the truth

The mainstream media is ignoring him and does not mention him as a presidential candidate

An online poll removed Ron Paul’s name from their survey after he won the poll – see snippet from article and link below:

“In the fourth week of the Pajamas Media Presidential Straw Poll, which ended yesterday, Congressman Ron Paul received 43.3% of the Republican vote, trouncing second place Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani.

So what do we find at the start of the fifth week of the poll? Ron Paul’s name is mysteriously missing from the choices. ”

http://thenewliberty.com/?p=45

~

Watch how the media treats Ron Paul in the next two years – it should be interesting to see if they can successfully ignore him for the whole time

[4plexowner]

meadandale – yes it is scary and very frustrating that people don’t understand how this country’s monetary system works

I believe the system has been intentionally complicated and obfuscated to discourage the typical citizen from looking ‘behind the curtain’

I have stopped posting my most gloomy and doomy forecasts but I don’t see a bright future for this country until we get rid of the Federal Reserve and restore our monetary system to its Constitutional form

(yes, that’s right, the US Constitution designated that the US Dollar would consist of a certain weight of silver and that only the US government could create these Dollars

in 1913 the US Congress was strong-armed into allowing the creation of the US Federal Reserve – this act turned the right of creating money over to a private corporation in direct violation of the US Constitution – the Constitution has never been revised to allow our current monetary system)

Every chance I get I try to point out to people that whatever financial issue they are focussed on, it somehow relates back to the underlying monetary system which is rotten to the core – eventually, I hope enough of us will understand this issue so we can address it

[4plexowner]

IMO it is impossible to have an honest, healthy economic system that is based on a dishonest, fraudulent monetary system

Fraudulent and dishnonest describes the US Federal Reserve System and its fiat currency the US Dollar – the Federal Reserve is a private corporation – it is not a part of the US government and it does not have the best interests of Americans at heart

The current credit/real estate bubble is just one more reason to abolish the Federal Reserve and return to a commodity-backed currency

Another aspect of having a fiat currency is that politicians can use this funny money to buy votes – in this particular thread we are talking about politicians buying votes from the several million people who will lose their homes without a bailout

~

Read “The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve”, by G Edward Griffin – this book should be required reading for all Americans

[4plexowner]

I saw an article last year about water in the Great Lakes

From memory: the eight states that border the Great Lakes have signed an agreement that NO water from the Great Lakes will be shipped to any state that does NOT border the Great Lakes

This seems like a “who cares” until you start thinking about where the water will come from to keep the southwest United States wet

~

pet peeve for stupid water usage: growing sod in the deserts of California!!!

like grass wasn’t stupid enough by itself (think of the time, energy and water spent to have a green grassy yard) we have to raise the stuff in the desert!!!

[4plexowner]

What happens to people who are currently short this stock?

Obviously they are hoping trading in the stock resumes so they can cover but what happens if trading doesn’t resume?

[4plexowner]

For all you permabulls: neener, neener, neener!

[Author]

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