[4plexowner]

This is one way we could use the current glut of un-needed housing units

Instead of taking up spaces in the local cemetaries we can use the downtown condos as tombs

It could even be a new tourist attraction – “Come to San Diego and visit the above-ground catacombs!”

[4plexowner]

Some of the “most households have lots of equity” comments are based on looking at analysis of 1st mortgages only

The more accurate statement would be “if you ignore 2nd mortgages and HELOC, most households have lots of equity”

This might be OK if only a few people had 2nds and HELOCs

When MOST people (speculators and subprime) are using 2nds and HELOCs it is less than truthful to make statements based on analysis of only 1st mortgages

Its almost like the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (a private corporation with its own agenda) was intentionally lying to the people of America …

[4plexowner]

Some of the “most households have lots of equity” comments are based on looking at analysis of 1st mortgages only

The more accurate statement would be “if you ignore 2nd mortgages and HELOC, most households have lots of equity”

This might be OK if only a few people had 2nds and HELOCs

When MOST people (speculators and subprime) are using 2nds and HELOCs it is less than truthful to make statements based on analysis of only 1st mortgages

Its almost like the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (a private corporation with its own agenda) was intentionally lying to the people of America …

[4plexowner]

HiggyBaby –

you’re not implying that the person being quoted might have a bias are you?????

[4plexowner]

I don’t think we can judge the auction until the ‘sold’ units close escrow (or don’t close escrow)

Some people have questioned how many shills were in the audience bidding

Perhaps that is why the banks are upset – most of the offers came from shills with only a few offers being made by real buyers (who may or may not make it to close of escrow)

Yeah, I know, no American corporation would intentionally employ deceptive marketing tactics …

[4plexowner]

When I was trying to decide whether to keep or sell my investment real estate I looked into what rents did during the depression

From what I could tell, they dropped significantly when the economy tanked in the late 20’s / early 30’s

It was 1948 before rents started to recover and rise again

Yep, almost 20 years where being a landlord was NOT the place to be

~

In San Diego we have some factors that will contribute to a drop in rental rates:

> 3400 condos coming online downtown in the next 18 months – the market is already in a glut condition

> 30-40% of listings on the MLS are vacant – these units will become rentals at some point (housing that won’t sell becomes rentals)

> net out-migration of educated salary earners – these are the people who MIGHT be able to afford San Diego entry-level homes and they are leaving the city

~

I no longer own any investment real estate

[4plexowner]

Both oil shales and oil sands offer a tremendous source of oil IF we have the energy to extract the oil – getting oil from either of these sources currently requires tremendous amounts of energy (and clean water) – given our current technology, getting oil from either of these sources is probably a NET LOSS

One of the things happening in Canada is that natural gas supplies are being diverted to the oil sands regions – places that are dependent on this natural gas (like the northeastern US) will suffer rising prices as the competition for natural gas continues

I haven’t studied the economics but I question whether it makes sense to use clean-burning, easily transportable natural gas to refine oil from oil sands

The last article I read about the oil shales talked about the challenges created by the porous rock in which this oil resides – the technique being discussed was to freeze the ground to create a large frozen box of dirt in the earth and then superheat the dirt inside this box to cause the oil to flow out of the shale so it could be collected – lots of energy required for both the freezing and heating processes and the amount of oil recovered was trivial

capeman – are you aware of any current technology for extracting the oil in oil sands or oil shales that isn’t a net loss?

[4plexowner]

Its only 556 miles from Oroville to where I work – just think of all the money I could save by living there and commuting

Let’s see, if I leave home at 11 PM sunday I will arrive at work at 8 AM monday – departing work at 4 PM monday puts me home at 5 AM tuesday – oops, looks like I won’t make it to work tuesday …

~

As for the weather being the same – I am sitting here looking at Oroville on the map (it should tell you something that I had to look at a map to see where the hell Oroville was) – hard to imagine that someplace inland from Sacramento has the same weather as San Diego

This is from the City of Oroville’s website (http://www.cityoforoville.org/statistics.html)

Climate – Moderate, Mediterranean
Average Annual Rainfall – 27.34 inches

A quick check of the weather at (http://www.orovilleca.com/local/weather-forecasts.html) tells me that it is currently 84.2 deg F and 29% humidity in Oroville at 10 am

You have a Mediterranean climate with 27″ rainfall – San Diego is a semi-arid, coastal desert climate with 9″ rainfall – it’s 84 deg F at 10 AM in Oroville and you want to tell me your weather is the same as mine?!!!? how hot is it going to get for you today? I’m sitting here wearing a sweatshirt while I type – you?

Right now it is 60 deg F in San Diego and 67% humidity – we might get up to 80 today in the inland areas but probably won’t here in the beach areas

~

I admire your frugality and I have an interest in dome homes myself but comparing Oroville to San Diego doesn’t make much sense

[4plexowner]

Rustico – have you seen any downside to getting your license?

When you disclose that you are an agent does the seller’s attitude change?

You have to disclose that you are an agent when you make an offer correct?

[4plexowner]

Doesn’t Coronado have some alley homes?

Perhaps you could compare real houses in Coronado to the alley houses there for some insight

IMO, it is curb appeal and the kitchen that sells a home – how can you have curb appeal in an alley?

[4plexowner]

Alex – some of us mis-timed the market and STILL made the million that you seem to think is so important

What’s your point?

[4plexowner]

Retail sales drop, but consumer credit soars !!

What does that tell you ???

4plex: last month’s mortgage payment, groceries and gas went on the credit cards and they didn’t buy any cheap crap from Walmart (that they didn’t really need anyway)

[4plexowner]

How rare is a 7000 sqft ‘level’ lot in one of these areas: Sunset Cliffs, OB, Pt Loma, Mission Hills, Bay Park?

It sounds like Hammer is talking about a fairly level lot and not something clinging to the side of a hill

If one of your criteria for a view property is having all of the main living area on one level and also having a decent size usable yard, how many properties of this type are there?

I’ve seen several view properties with funky floorplans (eg, kitchen is upstairs from entry level) to take advantage of the view – and only a few view properties with a decent sized level yard – perhaps I have only seen the ‘entry-level’ view properties in these areas?

Anybody with view property experience want to chime in?

[4plexowner]

Add the 3400 condos currently under construction downtown (slated to come online over the next 18 months) and you add another 34 months of inventory

Let’s see 18 + 34 … carry the naught …

That’s 52 months or 4+ years

[4plexowner]

As an investor, the property is worth its rental value – period

IMO the San Diego RE market will bottom when rental houses in rental neighborhoods reach their rental value (what a sentence!)

That means rental-quality SFRs in Clairemont and North Park for $275K

Because 40% of the RE market activity in San Diego during 2004/2005 was pure speculation, I believe there is a glut of housing available in San Diego given the current demand – IMO, without the speculative buyers, basic houses are worth their rental value

[Author]

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