[23109VC]

bugs – so this house that WAS at $521k….which is now offered at $421k….

how low do you all think houses like that will go to when it truly hits the bottom?

$321k?
not that low
even lower
???

[23109VC]

is this an excessive number of NODs for the area?

if this is the tip of the iceberg… uh oh…

[23109VC]

my wife is looking at these houses in Murrieta as I type this.. 🙂

we have a standing offer to buy our 1900 sq ft home in Harveston for $350k. heavy upgrades, full landscaping, great yard..and personally we really like Harveston. nice parks, nice little lake, nice community pool… yeah you pay $120/month for HOA…but the overall community looks/feels nice. and the lcoation in relation to malls, restaurants, Costco, and my work – is perfect.

but wow.. 3700 sq ft, with all those upgrades for barely over $400k. not bad. i’ve seen some highhly upgraded models in greer ranch selling at 450-480k but they were 2800 sq ft…stil large, but not as large.

do you know if DR was including flooring too or was that all extra. try to add nice flooring to 3000+ sq ft and you’re looking at some serious additional money… this home is in murrieta..but i’ve seen some homes that are techincally IN the CITY of murieta, but due to school district boundaries, the kids had to go to school in Mennifee which is not as good of a district… whats the deal wtih these DR horton homes..they are pretty clsoe to the border of murreita, winchester and menifee…

the price/sq ft of my home is $350/1900 sq ft = 184/sq ft.

the price fo this home is 421k/3300 sq ft = 127…wow.

although given a choice between some house that far up winchester….it’s pretty far up there…PITA freeway access…might get better later as roads develop…any amenities with this place like pools parks etc? in my experience..a lot o the homes up that way tend to cost a bit less than the areas further south…closer to the freeway/malls…

you guys here that know Tem/Murr think this deal at the DR place is great or do you think it’s only gonna get better??? 🙂 or shoudl i even ask… 🙂

[23109VC]

isn’t that whole area in basically a big hole? i’m very familiar with scripps as I grew up there and my parents still own in the “wine county” area. no they didn’t burn up…but some close by did..

anyway…a lot of the homes in that area are in what i feel is like a hole…i’d rather be up on a hill rather than at the bottom of one…. it’s near the St. Gregory church…

how low will stuff like that go to… anyone care to guess?

[23109VC]

i’m very indecisive. it’s just how I am.

[23109VC]

temecula guy-

are you familiar with harveston? these homes in harveston, that now list for $400-500k..

where do you see them selling at the “bottom” of this decline?

do you see rents going down or staying flat?

i’ve still got the chance to buy that 1900 sq ft one story home, totally loaded with upgrades, sweet location – for $350k. i have yet to see anything – anything – in harveston for that price except attached condos. this is a free standing house – loaded with granite, flooring, high end shutters, ceiling fans, landscaping, stamped concrete…appliances… it’s only a 3BD/2BA…but it’s a one story…which i like…

maybe in 3 years these homes will be selling for $200??

the house is in the sausalito tract. streets are edenton, oak park, sarasota… in 92591.

[23109VC]

I’ve been on this site for over a year now…and I think our friend here has it partly right.

I think most of us here frequent this sight b/c many of us feel the market is going to drop…for me…it was a place to gather information and educate myself on the market. Not being in the RE business – I have found the wealth of information on this site to be invaluable. I also do agree that there is a sentiment among the “core” peole here that the market is going to TANK hard. Obviously, that opinion is not shared by the entire population – or ntohign would be selling. Less is selling, but stuff still sells.

I have also been doing a lot of going out to “look” like Alex Angel suggests we do – and I have to admit – when I go to new housing developments and walk around the models – there are a lot of people looking. the little “map” things in the slaes offices that have the “sold” and “available” pins on them – show lots of sales. I have been to some developments over and over to look repeatedly, and I see homes taht were available, be removed from the list. I’ve called and pretended to be ready to come in and put a deposit on the house that was listed and they tell me it’s in escrow..and these were homes that were listing for almsot $500k in temecula an dmurrieta…so stuff is selling.

it’s just not selling at the volume it was.

now i wonder if the NEW homes are selling better than the resales b/c the builders can undercut the resales. I have seen a LOT of that. you go to a new development that is on say phase 10 of 10. and some poor guy who bought in phase 2 or 3 has his house for sale. he bought it stripped for $550-600k. he has linoleum, no backyard landscaping, plain white ceramic tile on his kitchen, plain white cheapy appliances, cheapy everything. it’s stripped.

the builder now has standing inventory, they have a hard time selling b/c it’s slow, so they reduce the price to $500-550 and they load the house up. extensive hard wood flooring, tiling, landscaping, s/s appliances, granite, jacuzzi tub, window coverings..etc.

you can buy a loaded house for $500 or the stripped one for $600 that has been lived in.. hmmm.. so the builder still keeps selilng but at less of a profit and the poor homeowner who’s ARM is resetting, has no equity, and can’t sell walks away and his house goes into foreclosure or maybe he can arrange a short sale…

bottom line is the housing prices ARE coming down. I”ve seen it. I rent ah ouse that sold for $450k. some of the later phases and resales within the same development sold for close to $500k. the owner is willing to sell it to me for $350k. i see another one down the street advertised as a short sale for $400k. prices are LESS than they were a year ago. period. at least up here in tem/murrieta they are.

will they keep going down and HOW LOW will they go is the magical question taht no one truly knows the answer to.

many here wish and believe that it will go down much much lower. some think it will go lower but not that much…

i’m NOT an expert…but from what i’ve educated myself on..i think prices will still go lower. but i don’t think they will bomb down to actual 2000 or 2002 dollar values. they may get to those levels but adjusted for inflation..

so that house that cost $250k in 2002 will sell for 300-325 in a year or two…… but to think that a house that is now listing for $500k will suddently be wroth $200k is fantasy land.. at least to me.

as long as the interest rates stay low the prices won’t drop off the map. i’d like them to, but i dont think they will. maybe i’m wrong… and the people here who say 50% drops will be right.

only time will tell. but i do think when you have website like this where everyone thinks alike, and you mostly agree about somethig, you tend to get more reinforcement of your own opinions. put a bunch of conservative republicans together in one room, have them discuss politics and they all agree, and reinforce one another. put liberal dems in another room and same thing happens.

here we have a person from the opposite camp dropping in on our “room”…we ought to listen, be polite, educate, and exchange info. not bash. we may end up being right and the market wil explode over the next few year…and maybe it will sort of slowly deflate and while we see true drops when you factor in the drops and inflation..but we might enver see a “crash”…no one knows until it happens.

anyway… off the soapbox. 🙂

[23109VC]

what about short sales?

if a homeowner is going into foreclosure and is trying to sell the property via MLS with an agent and has a short sale approved through their lender – that will reflect on MLS??

i’ve seen several homes advertised that are on th eMLS and they advertise as a “short sale”.

were short sales common in the last downturn and were short sales a big part of the price depreciation then? what we’re going to see here in so cal are piles of foreclosures…. or at least people who are on the verge of foreclosure and tons of houses for sale as a result.

[23109VC]

so for those of you who historically track the season cycles of up/downs int he resale market…

is April/May typically a high or low time of the year in terms of sales?

I’m just wondering…since in 2006 there was a decrease in sales from April to May, it’s normal to see a drop from April to May in 2007? it’s just larger.

is the ratio of the drop statistically significant if you analyze drops from April to May of say 05 04 03 02 00 99 98 97 96 95 etc?

[23109VC]

rents seem to be going up here in temecula.

when i was looking for a hoseu to rent about one year ago, a nice 3 BD or 4 BD home was in the 1600-1800 range. now the same house is 1800-2100.

the house i currently rent is on the “small” side for temecual,, it’s “only” 1900 sq ft.. and it was listed at 1400… now for $1400 you might get a 2 bedroom aprt. to rent an equivalent house now, i’d expect to pay 1800 minimum.

i’ve looked hard lately in this area and most houses athat re unde 1800/month are what i would consider “stripped” homes…lineleum, no appliances, crummier areas. if you find a well optioned home, loaded wtih upgrades… tile, granite, appliances, nice location, landscaping – you’re looking at 1800-2000/month minimum.

using a 200x rent at 1800/month you wind up with many of these SFR houses in temecula area selling at 360000.

right now, many of these hoems ar elisting at 450-500.

on a side – there are two houses for sale near me – they are on the same street – exact same house – almost identical in terms of upgrades….you would take one or the other – neither is any better than the other.

one listing for $475k.
the other is a short sale advertised on MLS at $399. bet the guy selling at 475k is PISSED….

i think pricing in temecula for thse homes will bottom out near 300-350k….

i don’t see these ultra fixed up himes in nice parts of temecula selling for 200-250 or even 275k…

to be that cheap they would need to rent out at 1300/month or something…and apartmetns are more than that right now.

[23109VC]

I pulled up Riverside. It shows overvaluatation of almost 70%…..

here is a question about that however – Riverside/San Bernardino as a whole have POCKETS of nice stuff, and PILES Of crap. you have entire zip codes of scumville in these two counties.. then you have nice little spots like Temecula…that are basically outcroppings of the SD market and OC market… 90% of it is upscale, cleancut, etc.

You can’t compare Temecula and say… Perris…or Colton…or Romoland… that would be like comparing Scripps Ranch to some gang infested nasty part of San diego…

so when these “over value” estimates are made..I wonder how it will pan out when you talk about nice areas vs junk.

i can see prices crumbling in Perris. no one wants to live there. I see places like temecula and scripps ranch.. and think.. ok prices may fall… but bottom line is that there WILL be people with money who want to live in these places…. so while prices may fall… i dont’ necessarily see Scripps or nice parts of Temecula falling as much as the slums… so these “over value” numbers ar emisleading in that they clump the whole county together and you can’t do that.

prices in La Jolla aren’t goign to drop or change exactly the same as prices in Scripps, or Mira Mesa….or Carmel Valley… you may see overall trends… but do you think prices will fall the SAME across the board in all areas iwthi n a county.. i don’t think so.

i’m not saying stuff won’t fall. in my nice little area of Temecula… houses are sitting for sale and not moving… there are piles of houss on the maket.

why would my landlord hav eoffered me his house at almost a 100,000 LOSS unless he felt he coldn’t do any better?

[23109VC]

99% of the time I have seen a model home – when I ask the sales people HOW MUCH the options cost – they dont’ know..or won’t say. they can usually tell you WHAT items are upgrades, but very few will actually tell you what they cost.

I have had a few exceptions, where they have printed out a pricing sheet with costs for all the options and let me take it with me. My guess is that it’s just too time consuming to get into a long discussion on how much the extras cost – adn unless you have already put money down on the house – they don’t want to waste their time.

if you walked onto the lot at the porsche dealer, and wanted detailed info on how much all the various options costed, and wanted to price out the car – they would happily do it *IF* they thought you were for real..if they figured you were just a looky loo they would politely refer you to the porsche website where you can look all that stuff up.

given the high volume of Lookyloo people at model homes…they probably assume a majority of the people walking in are not going to buy.

I really liked the Lennar homes that were “EI” = everything’s included. you don’t get to pick what color your counter tops or cabinets will be – but there are NO options or upgrades except flooring. so when you walk the models – what you see is exactly what you get – paint, base boards, appliances, lights, fixtures.

it is very frustrating to walk through a model home – think to yourself – wow this house is beautiful. you look at the pricesheet and it has a very affordable number on it. then you look at the “option/upgrade” list andf ind out that virtually EVERYTHING in teh house was an upgrade. I’ve seen RIDICULOUS stuff as options – lights, switches, door knobs… then you find out that to make the house look even REMOTELY like what you saw would be $100,000 or more extra..and you feel like it’s a bait and switch. some models will have one home more basic..so you can see what you are going to get – but still – i like the Lennar EI idea. you get less choie..but you pay less for more b/c they bought in mega bulk…

[23109VC]

i think on weekends, a lot of people jus go to look at houses for fun. maybe to think about buying, maybe to get decorating ideas, maybe they just like looking.

my wife and i looked at hosues for almost two years before we bought first time around….

we still go look fromt ime to time just to see what theprice sheets say – have they changed – and to get decorating ideas. 🙂 we’ve looked at a LOT of new developments, most of the time wtih NO intention of buying anything. we look like peole who can buy – walk in nicely dressed, pulled up in a nie car – they probably think we are potential buyers – and we aren’t.

i wonder though – at the more $$$ places – you probably have more people who can and will buy. the low priced places lost their subprime borrowers….but milli9on dollar places still have customers..maybe a few less than before, bu the “core” buyers who buy these places aren’t doing ARMs… just my guess.

[23109VC]

all this bail out talk makes me think i should go buy a mcmansion with an ARM and then cry for help and get the gov’t to offer me a new low rate fixed loan wtih no costs….

what frickin BS

[23109VC]

this thread has comments that are all over – seem inconsistent and don’t make sense to me.

so the dollar will devalue…meaning it will take MORE dollars to buy the same house = prices increase.

houses will go down in price 10-20% = prices go down.

is our real estate market really going to be affected by the global economy? i mean if it does it does.. but mr. and mrs. john doe housebuyers don’t know and don’t care what the global economy is doing. they only know if THEY have a job and what they get paid in relation to what houses are priced at. if the dollar is out of whack wih the euro or yen or whatever – 99% of the public has no clue nor do they care.

so which will impact prices more? the ARMs resetting, foreclosures ,e tc… or the global economy??

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