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February 19, 2016 at 11:36 AM #794511February 19, 2016 at 11:45 AM #794513millennialParticipant
[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bearishgurl]
(Japan is interesting… population in declining. Tokyo prices are increasing but suburban prices are dropping).[/quote]This is actually not the case. My brother in law lives in Tokyo and refuses to buy a home there due to declining existing property values. What developers do to continue propping values is destroying old inventory and replacing it with new. If you buy a home there, it does not appreciate because your home becomes old stock and everyone wants to get the newest thing. The problem with Japan is there is a very strict immigration policy. This + declining population= bad news. At some point the government has acknowledged that they will need to loosen policy otherwise there will be a lot of old people and no one to take care of them.
February 19, 2016 at 11:53 AM #794501millennialParticipant[quote]That’s the “bullshit” establishment part that millenials hate. I can understand the feeling because “showing up and being there” has nothing to do with pure economics and merit.quote]
Exactly. I don’t think just cause you have grey hair and a fancy title doesn’t make you the smartest person in the room, nor does it make you immune to questions. Some people may think this is being disrespectful, but that’s the way we think. We are also “show me” people. You say that you make the company this much $, then show me. Most things are quantifiable and your value to the firm in many cases can be as well. If you preach about what it takes to be a good leader, then show me your great followers. If you are telling everyone how good of a parent you are then show me your kids. If you preach about how to make money then show me your tax return. We are a skeptical bunch cause we are smart and we are tired of hearing so much BS. Being in the information age data is plentiful, so filtering is key.
February 19, 2016 at 11:53 AM #794514FlyerInHiGuest[quote=yamashi1][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bearishgurl]
(Japan is interesting… population in declining. Tokyo prices are increasing but suburban prices are dropping).[/quote]This is actually not the case. My brother in law lives in Tokyo and refuses to buy a home there due to declining existing property values. What developers do to continue propping values is destroying old inventory and replacing it with new. If you buy a home there, it does not appreciate because your home becomes old stock and everyone wants to get the newest thing. The problem with Japan is there is a very strict immigration policy. This + declining population= bad news. At some point the government has acknowledged that they will need to loosen policy otherwise there will be a lot of old people and no one to take care of them.[/quote]
Yeah, that makes sense… In Japan, old houses do depreciate. I hear that prices are very uneven, depending on the area.
Declining population is a bitch for asset values. We are lucky to have immigration.
February 19, 2016 at 11:56 AM #794515FlyerInHiGuest[quote=bearishgurl]Of COURSE, seniority means everything! It DOESN’T MATTER if millenials “think” they are smarter than their superiors because they were “educated” and “know how to dive for data.” They aren’t getting paid as much because they don’t deserve it …. yet. That’s what the “merit system” is in place for.
[/quote]That’s not merit, it’s bullshit. It’s old protectionism.
In a creative economy, it’s all about what you bring to the table (revenue you generate).
BG, I have what I consider 4 jobs… I have 1 job which I would call “normal”. But the other 3 jobs are about my own creativity (one is finding innovative/smarter ways to invest in real estate) and a schedule that I make. I’ve been really busy lately and I haven’t able to travel (I should because the Dollar is strong), but I hope to take time off once I get all my ducks in row.
What bothers me is the “establishment” non-stop talking about hard-work and merit, but they don’t do shit. It’s all talk.
February 19, 2016 at 1:07 PM #794516bearishgurlParticipant[quote=yamashi1]As a millennial we grew up in an era where the growing majority of households had two working adults; and for the most part not raised by our parents but by daycare providers or no one at all! Personally, I remember walking home at age 6 with my younger sister to an empty house, preparing a PB&J sandwich and either throwing on the TV or jumping on my bike to go play with the neighborhood kids. I miss those days, but as an adult I’ve come to realize that I don’t want to be like my parents. I created children because I want to be with them, want to spend time with them and watch them grow to become responsible adults. For the first time in human history, technology has enabled us to do all of this.[/quote]
[quote=yamashi1] . . . My wife and I work downtown and I am able to enjoy it, but probably not a great place to raise children. I’m sure that I’m not the only one that feels this way. It seems pretty normal for young professionals to live in the city and move to the suburbs once they start having children. Options for me are sending my kids to private school and living in the city, or moving to the suburbs and going the public route. I chose suburbs cause my wife was a product of private and is not a fan.[/quote]
yamashi, I take it your kids ARE currently in daycare/afterschool care?
And were you aware of this public (K-8) school about 3.5 miles north of dtn SD?
https://www.sandiegounified.org/schools/grant
http://www.greatschools.org/california/san-diego/6151-Grant-Elementary-School/
This school currently rates a “9” and could have gotten your kids thru to HS, at which time they could choose from Mission Bay High or SD High (which has a renowned IB program) OR you could have applied for a zone transfer for them one-by-one, which isn’t as difficult to successfully obtain with a Hillcrest or Mission Hills address. Once the first kid gets admitted to a particular HS in SDUSD, it is MUCH easier for the other kids in the same family to follow.
There are a few more very good elementary schools within ~10 miles of dtn SD (rated 8 or 9).
Just sayin … there WERE alternatives for you to moving out to a suburb/exurb when you really didn’t want to be there. Even if you thought it must be “normal” to do so at your “stage of life.”
[quote=yamashi1][quote-bearishgurl]And btw, my kids were NEVER “latchkey kids.” They went to afterschool care thru the 6th grade and then a homework assistance program in 7th grade and transitioned back to extracurricular activities/home in 8th grade. They are far apart in age so my “child-rearing years” spanned a longer period of time than that of most parents.[/quote]I never meant it personally. I’m just speaking for my generation. For the most part, we were the first group to grow up in single parent/dual income households. Latchkey kids/afterschool care became the norm. Because of this, housing prices and sq ft. of homes and mini mcmansions increased exponentially further complicating the problem as single income families were priced out of good areas and therefore dual income became a requirement.[/quote]Actually, yamashi, millenials weren’t the first generation to have both parents working. I myself (and my siblings) grew up in a household in the ’50’s, ’60’s and ’70’s with both parents working and we weren’t alone. We never had daycare (nor could we afford it) but my mom didn’t work FT until my youngest sibling was in 1st grade and one of us had to walk him home from school.
If you’re speaking here of CA housing prices, yamashi, RE prices didn’t go up over the years in CA due to the composition of working parents in Big Development’s supposed “target buyer” households. Residential RE prices exploded (esp in CA coastal counties) due to the scarcity (and as a byproduct, cost) of acquiring and developing buildable land and the steady rise of the cost of construction materials. It costs a fortune to set up a CFD and develop an entire “master-planned” community in the manner the developer has agreed to with the respective city or county it is located in. Not only that, it takes YEARS to finally break ground, which may or may not include litigating several lawsuits with environmental groups, etc. The proliferation of “mini-mansions” today is simply a compensating factor for the typical small size of SFR lots subdivided by and offered for sale Big Development since the inception of the creation of CFDs pursuant to the Mello-Roos Act (mid 1987 and later in SD County). At the same time, the concept of “master planned communities” was created by “Big D” to make buyers feel better about buying a newly constructed larger-than-standard home crammed onto a smaller-than-standard and even minuscule lot (in comparison to residential lot sizes in long-established neighborhoods). The more square feet the home had, the higher price they could command for it … lot size be damned.
If your theory was true, then established city neighborhoods (where you state that millenials generally don’t want to raise their families in and which may instead be full of “retirees”) would not have escalated in value at such a rapid rate over the past two decades. Developers DON’T CARE how many jobs are in a buyer-household. They only care about 1-4 things in qualifying a buyer, depending upon terms of sale (1) total of buyers’ monthly household income, exclusive of occasional overtime; (2) total of buyers’ recurring monthly debt; (3) FICO score for all borrowers who will be listed on the the deed; and, (4) how much the buyer will be putting down. In the case of an “all-cash” buyer, all they care about is proof of certified funds. They don’t give a rat’s a$$ how many people in a household are bringing in income … only what the total of that (steady and customary) monthly income is in relation to mortgage size applied for. Ditto for sellers of resale homes.
No one is “conspiring” against millenials (or any other generation) to “price-fix” on “mini-mansions” in the distant suburbs because they perceive “both parents” are working in a household with minor kids at home. Believe me, developers (or any seller, for that matter) would rather accept a (competitive) all-cash offer than bother with a buyer who must qualify for a mortgage as a condition of their purchase offer. Nor do any developers of “mini-mansions” CARE one whit what the composition of the household who will buy it from them is (or whether they will actually occupy said dwelling … or not).
February 19, 2016 at 1:09 PM #794517skerzzParticipant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bearishgurl]Of COURSE, seniority means everything! It DOESN’T MATTER if millenials “think” they are smarter than their superiors because they were “educated” and “know how to dive for data.” They aren’t getting paid as much because they don’t deserve it …. yet. That’s what the “merit system” is in place for.
[/quote]That’s not merit, it’s bullshit. It’s old protectionism.
In a creative economy, it’s all about what you bring to the table (revenue you generate).
BG, I have what I consider 4 jobs… I have 1 job which I would call “normal”. But the other 3 jobs are about my own creativity (one is finding innovative/smarter ways to invest in real estate) and a schedule that I make. I’ve been really busy lately and I haven’t able to travel (I should because the Dollar is strong), but I hope to take time off once I get all my ducks in row.
What bothers me is the “establishment” non-stop talking about hard-work and merit, but they don’t do shit. It’s all talk.[/quote]
I agree. The working for the appearance of working, unnecessary “facetime”, etc. old school “establishment” view on how to approach work is garbage. Why work away the most physically capable (youthful) years of your life in exchange for the chance, assuming you survive the rat race without major health problems, that you’ll reap great benefits during your “retirement” years. Instead, why not use technology to eliminate most unnecessary/inefficient “work” and free yourself to enjoy more of life today? If results are there, an organization shouldn’t care where/how the work is getting done.
As Timothy Ferriss lays out in his book the four hour work week, abandon the “Deferred Life Plan” and join the New Rich. This outlook doesn’t typically sit well with Boomers since they’ve already bought into/committed to live the “Deferred Life Plan”.
February 19, 2016 at 1:44 PM #794524millennialParticipant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bearishgurl][quote]But the other 3 jobs are about my own creativity (one is finding innovative/smarter ways to invest in real estate) and a schedule that I make. I’ve been really busy lately and I haven’t able to travel (I should because the Dollar is strong), but I hope to take time off once I get all my ducks in row. [/quote]
BG what type of real estate are you into?February 19, 2016 at 1:45 PM #794523millennialParticipant[quote]yamashi, I take it your kids ARE currently in daycare/afterschool care?
And were you aware of this public (K-8) school about 3.5 miles north of dtn SD?
https://www.sandiegounified.org/schools/grant
http://www.greatschools.org/california/san-diego/6151-Grant-Elementary-School/%5B/quote%5D
All of the elementary schools in our district currently rate a 10 or better. The middle school is a 10 and the high school is a 9. My daughter’s elementary school also has a GATE Seminar program which is also a +, so I don’t have to drive to a different school. In addition, my commute to work in the morning is against traffic and takes me between 20-25 minutes. I personally would never move more than 30 minutes away from my job. Downtown is fun, but I don’t think its a place where I want my kids to be playing. I’ll wait until they are older before exposing them to transients and dead people on the sidewalk from meth/heroin overdose.
[quote]Actually, yamashi, millenials weren’t the first generation to have both parents working. I myself (and my siblings) grew up in a household in the ’50’s, ’60’s and ’70’s with both parents working and we weren’t alone. [/quote]
I’m not saying they were, I’m saying that is what I remember growing up. Also, McMansions are a product that happened during my time. 50’s-70’s homes were for the most part less than 2,000 sq ft. Not like the huge homes we have today.[quote]If you’re speaking here of CA housing prices, yamashi, RE prices didn’t go up over the years in CA due ….[/quote]
Your rationale is all BS. Costs don’t determine prices, people do. To qualify for these higher mortgages people need to have dual incomes to cover the mortgage. Simple as that. All this other crap you talk about has nothing to do with anything. Large developers make products that people can afford. Without absorption, then the developers cannot find financing to finance their projects. I used to finance large developments (KB, Lennar, Pulte, etc) and the first thing I review is the feasibility of the absorption. This is prior to looking at the budget, hard and soft cost contingencies etc. If people can’t afford it, I could care less how much the developer spends; in many of the cases, this requires dual income. One person loses a job and bam 2008 happens all over again.
February 19, 2016 at 1:46 PM #794521The-ShovelerParticipant[quote=skerzz][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bearishgurl]Of COURSE, seniority means everything! It DOESN’T MATTER if millenials “think” they are smarter than their superiors because they were “educated” and “know how to dive for data.” They aren’t getting paid as much because they don’t deserve it …. yet. That’s what the “merit system” is in place for.
[/quote]That’s not merit, it’s bullshit. It’s old protectionism.
In a creative economy, it’s all about what you bring to the table (revenue you generate).
BG, I have what I consider 4 jobs… I have 1 job which I would call “normal”. But the other 3 jobs are about my own creativity (one is finding innovative/smarter ways to invest in real estate) and a schedule that I make. I’ve been really busy lately and I haven’t able to travel (I should because the Dollar is strong), but I hope to take time off once I get all my ducks in row.
What bothers me is the “establishment” non-stop talking about hard-work and merit, but they don’t do shit. It’s all talk.[/quote]
I agree. The working for the appearance of working, unnecessary “facetime”, etc. old school “establishment” view on how to approach work is garbage. Why work away the most physically capable (youthful) years of your life in exchange for the chance, assuming you survive the rat race without major health problems, that you’ll reap great benefits during your “retirement” years. Instead, why not use technology to eliminate most unnecessary/inefficient “work” and free yourself to enjoy more of life today? If results are there, an organization shouldn’t care where/how the work is getting done.
As Timothy Ferriss lays out in his book the four hour work week, abandon the “Deferred Life Plan” and join the New Rich. This outlook doesn’t typically sit well with Boomers since they’ve already bought into/committed to live the “Deferred Life Plan”.[/quote]
Sounds great on paper, but realistically probably only 5-10% of workers can work like this and have modern society you know things like electricity, water, roads, Food etc… function.
Yes there are Boomers who live this life style too, maybe 5% or so.
February 19, 2016 at 2:06 PM #794525bearishgurlParticipant[quote=yamashi1][quote]yamashi, I take it your kids ARE currently in daycare/afterschool care?
And were you aware of this public (K-8) school about 3.5 miles north of dtn SD?
https://www.sandiegounified.org/schools/grant
http://www.greatschools.org/california/san-diego/6151-Grant-Elementary-School/%5B/quote%5D
All of the elementary schools in our district currently rate a 10 or better. The middle school is a 10 and the high school is a 9. My daughter’s elementary school also has a GATE Seminar program which is also a +. In addition, my commute to work in the morning is against traffic and takes me between 20-25 minutes. I personally would never move more than 30 minutes away from my job. Downtown is fun, but I don’t think its a place where I want my kids to be playing. I’ll wait until they are older before exposing them to transients and dead people on the sidewalk from meth/heroin overdose.
[quote]Actually, yamashi, millenials weren’t the first generation to have both parents working. I myself (and my siblings) grew up in a household in the ’50’s, ’60’s and ’70’s with both parents working and we weren’t alone. [/quote]
I’m not saying they were, I’m saying that is what I remember growing up. Also, McMansions are a product that happened during my time. 50’s-70’s homes were for the most part less than 2,000 sq ft. Not like the huge homes we have today.[quote]If you’re speaking here of CA housing prices, yamashi, RE prices didn’t go up over the years in CA due ….[/quote]
Your rationale is all BS. Costs don’t determine prices, people do. To qualify for these higher mortgages people need to have dual incomes to cover the mortgage. Simple as that. All this other crap you talk about has nothing to do with anything. Large developers make products that people can afford. Without absorption, then the developers cannot find financing to finance their projects. I used to finance large developments (KB, Lennar, Pulte, etc) and the first thing I review is the feasibility of the absorption. This is prior to looking at the budget, hard and soft cost contingencies etc. If people can’t afford it, I could care less how much the developer spends; in many of the cases, this requires dual income. One person loses a job and bam 2008 happens all over again.[/quote]Then you know that developers don’t build for free … they build for a profit. They MUST be able to get all of their expenses back out of the sale of all the units in a subdivision or it is not even worth it for them to apply for a subdivision permit. It has been VERY costly to build in CA since the inception of the MR Act (year varies by county). A builder doesn’t have to worry about “absorption” in a CA coastal county. They WILL sell all of their units upon each phase they release as SoCal (esp coastal counties) has a “captive audience” and always have. Buyers aren’t setting prices of new construction. Builders are. And they have often used “creative financing” (such as builder-funded second TD’s) to make their prices more “palatable” to those buyers who have to get a mortgage but can’t qualify for enough to purchase.
“2008” can’t happen “all over again” unless lending standards are relaxed to the level they were from 2004 to 2008 and I doubt that will happen again. “2008” had little to do with with job loss of individual homeowners and everything to do with “qualifying” buyers for homes which they were unqualified to purchase and allowing same (unqualified) homeowners to remove equity from their homes, plain and simple.
As for downtown SD, I worked down there for over 25 years and never saw “dead people on the sidewalk from meth/heroin overdose,” nor have I recently and I have to go down there and park 1-2x month. The areas I suggested to you were in 92103 which is, for the most part, very quiet (in the residential areas). Not only that, it has beautiful architecture and streetscape and is prestigious and coveted by buyers from all over the world. PLENTY of “professionals” (mostly attorneys) I worked with downtown raised their kids in that area!
yamashi, you never told us if your kids are in daycare/afterschool care NOW and/or if you managed to “escape” from the lifestyle your parents provided for you. Inquiring minds are wondering ….
February 19, 2016 at 2:09 PM #794526skerzzParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=skerzz][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bearishgurl]Of COURSE, seniority means everything! It DOESN’T MATTER if millenials “think” they are smarter than their superiors because they were “educated” and “know how to dive for data.” They aren’t getting paid as much because they don’t deserve it …. yet. That’s what the “merit system” is in place for.
[/quote]That’s not merit, it’s bullshit. It’s old protectionism.
In a creative economy, it’s all about what you bring to the table (revenue you generate).
BG, I have what I consider 4 jobs… I have 1 job which I would call “normal”. But the other 3 jobs are about my own creativity (one is finding innovative/smarter ways to invest in real estate) and a schedule that I make. I’ve been really busy lately and I haven’t able to travel (I should because the Dollar is strong), but I hope to take time off once I get all my ducks in row.
What bothers me is the “establishment” non-stop talking about hard-work and merit, but they don’t do shit. It’s all talk.[/quote]
I agree. The working for the appearance of working, unnecessary “facetime”, etc. old school “establishment” view on how to approach work is garbage. Why work away the most physically capable (youthful) years of your life in exchange for the chance, assuming you survive the rat race without major health problems, that you’ll reap great benefits during your “retirement” years. Instead, why not use technology to eliminate most unnecessary/inefficient “work” and free yourself to enjoy more of life today? If results are there, an organization shouldn’t care where/how the work is getting done.
As Timothy Ferriss lays out in his book the four hour work week, abandon the “Deferred Life Plan” and join the New Rich. This outlook doesn’t typically sit well with Boomers since they’ve already bought into/committed to live the “Deferred Life Plan”.[/quote]
Sounds great on paper, but realistically probably only 5-10% of workers can work like this and have modern society you know things like electricity, water, roads, Food etc… function.
Yes there are Boomers who live this life style too, maybe 5% or so.[/quote]
Agreed – Not everyone can live this way, that’s why they are referred to as the “New Rich” (emphasis on “Rich”, i.e. not everyone can afford to do so). As a professional that bills by the hour, I’m still working out the details of how I can put this into play myself. I have some ideas, but haven’t quite built up the courage make the leap.
February 19, 2016 at 2:12 PM #794527millennialParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]
Yes there are Boomers who live this life style too, maybe 5% or so.[/quote]What lifestyle do you keep referring to? I think he’s just referring to ways of doing the same job more productively and creatively. I think in any job you can find ways to improve processes and/ technology to make your personal life better. Anyone can bitch and complain about anything, like that it’s only for the 5%, but not many can come up with solutions to why the other 95% can’t do it.
February 19, 2016 at 2:21 PM #794528The-ShovelerParticipantThat would be great!!
I am still working on my food replicator, and my self repairing road.
February 19, 2016 at 2:31 PM #794529millennialParticipant[quote]It has been VERY costly to build in CA since the inception of the MR Act (year varies by county). A builder doesn’t have to worry about “absorption” in a CA coastal county.[/quote] You are correct when talking about places with limited infill, but I’m talking about everyplace else.
[quote]As for downtown SD, I worked down there for over 25 years and never saw “dead people on the sidewalk from meth/heroin overdose,” nor have I recently and I have to go down there and park 1-2x month. [/quote] Trust me it happens[quote]The areas I suggested to you were in 92103 which is, for the most part, very quiet (in the residential areas). Not only that, it has beautiful architecture and streetscape and is prestigious and coveted by buyers from all over the world. PLENTY of “professionals” (mostly attorneys) I worked with downtown raised their kids in that area![/quote] Not saying people don’t do it, just not my cup of tea. Also I think if you take a % of population, the majority of kids are raised in the suburbs.
[quote]yamashi, you never told us if your kids are in daycare/afterschool care NOW and/or if you managed to “escape” from the lifestyle your parents provided for you. Inquiring minds are wondering ….[/quote]
Right now they are involved in after school programs (Chinese, piano and martial arts), but my job allows me the flexibility to work from home and the freedom to set hours when necessary. I never said that daycare/afterschool programs are bad, but millennials value technology and using it in ways to make life better and more efficient. You don’t have to be chained to a desk and monitor all day if it doesn’t make sense.
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