Would you have pulled the trigger?

[sdcellar]

And, fwiw, note my post on Rich’s new article about the latest Case-Shiller numbers. I’m serious that I really am at a loss as to where things are going.

I do know that I’m tired of this economy though. All I wanted was for real estate to come back to reality, but I know too many good people who are suffering.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]
And *before* you buy a house just because it fits rent/buy at this moment. What, violate the rent/buy credo? Well, I could get a super awesome crapshack somewhere that meets your (our?) rent/buy criteria, but if I hate it, can’t wait to move where I’d really like to live, it probably ain’t going to work out to well for me — happiness-wise or financially. Extreme example, but I don’t know what to do until you really can understand what I’m trying to communicate to you.[/quote]
This might be Martian to you but I’ll try again. I totally agree that you shouldn’t buy in an area you don’t want to buy, just for the sake for rent vs buy. I say buy in an area you want to buy when it’s at least rent vs buy neutral. However, you should always plan for the worse, even when it’s rent neutral. When you plan for the worse, nothing should surprise you and you’ll have your base covered. Sure, you might hope to be able to sell at a profit in 3-5 years and move up. But you should plan for staying in it for 10+ years before you can sell for a profit. What if in the next 10-20 years, housing stay flat, just like Japan in the 90s until now. What if housing drop another 50%? Don’t buy until you’re OK w/ the worse case scenario. When it’s cheaper for me to buy than rent, I’m OK w/ those scenario. Key word is, it’s OK for ME. I can’t speak for you or anyone else. That in a nutshell is the foundation for my viewpoints.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]
And *before* you buy a house just because it fits rent/buy at this moment. What, violate the rent/buy credo? Well, I could get a super awesome crapshack somewhere that meets your (our?) rent/buy criteria, but if I hate it, can’t wait to move where I’d really like to live, it probably ain’t going to work out to well for me — happiness-wise or financially. Extreme example, but I don’t know what to do until you really can understand what I’m trying to communicate to you.[/quote]
This might be Martian to you but I’ll try again. I totally agree that you shouldn’t buy in an area you don’t want to buy, just for the sake for rent vs buy. I say buy in an area you want to buy when it’s at least rent vs buy neutral. However, you should always plan for the worse, even when it’s rent neutral. When you plan for the worse, nothing should surprise you and you’ll have your base covered. Sure, you might hope to be able to sell at a profit in 3-5 years and move up. But you should plan for staying in it for 10+ years before you can sell for a profit. What if in the next 10-20 years, housing stay flat, just like Japan in the 90s until now. What if housing drop another 50%? Don’t buy until you’re OK w/ the worse case scenario. When it’s cheaper for me to buy than rent, I’m OK w/ those scenario. Key word is, it’s OK for ME. I can’t speak for you or anyone else. That in a nutshell is the foundation for my viewpoints.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]
And *before* you buy a house just because it fits rent/buy at this moment. What, violate the rent/buy credo? Well, I could get a super awesome crapshack somewhere that meets your (our?) rent/buy criteria, but if I hate it, can’t wait to move where I’d really like to live, it probably ain’t going to work out to well for me — happiness-wise or financially. Extreme example, but I don’t know what to do until you really can understand what I’m trying to communicate to you.[/quote]
This might be Martian to you but I’ll try again. I totally agree that you shouldn’t buy in an area you don’t want to buy, just for the sake for rent vs buy. I say buy in an area you want to buy when it’s at least rent vs buy neutral. However, you should always plan for the worse, even when it’s rent neutral. When you plan for the worse, nothing should surprise you and you’ll have your base covered. Sure, you might hope to be able to sell at a profit in 3-5 years and move up. But you should plan for staying in it for 10+ years before you can sell for a profit. What if in the next 10-20 years, housing stay flat, just like Japan in the 90s until now. What if housing drop another 50%? Don’t buy until you’re OK w/ the worse case scenario. When it’s cheaper for me to buy than rent, I’m OK w/ those scenario. Key word is, it’s OK for ME. I can’t speak for you or anyone else. That in a nutshell is the foundation for my viewpoints.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]
And *before* you buy a house just because it fits rent/buy at this moment. What, violate the rent/buy credo? Well, I could get a super awesome crapshack somewhere that meets your (our?) rent/buy criteria, but if I hate it, can’t wait to move where I’d really like to live, it probably ain’t going to work out to well for me — happiness-wise or financially. Extreme example, but I don’t know what to do until you really can understand what I’m trying to communicate to you.[/quote]
This might be Martian to you but I’ll try again. I totally agree that you shouldn’t buy in an area you don’t want to buy, just for the sake for rent vs buy. I say buy in an area you want to buy when it’s at least rent vs buy neutral. However, you should always plan for the worse, even when it’s rent neutral. When you plan for the worse, nothing should surprise you and you’ll have your base covered. Sure, you might hope to be able to sell at a profit in 3-5 years and move up. But you should plan for staying in it for 10+ years before you can sell for a profit. What if in the next 10-20 years, housing stay flat, just like Japan in the 90s until now. What if housing drop another 50%? Don’t buy until you’re OK w/ the worse case scenario. When it’s cheaper for me to buy than rent, I’m OK w/ those scenario. Key word is, it’s OK for ME. I can’t speak for you or anyone else. That in a nutshell is the foundation for my viewpoints.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]
And *before* you buy a house just because it fits rent/buy at this moment. What, violate the rent/buy credo? Well, I could get a super awesome crapshack somewhere that meets your (our?) rent/buy criteria, but if I hate it, can’t wait to move where I’d really like to live, it probably ain’t going to work out to well for me — happiness-wise or financially. Extreme example, but I don’t know what to do until you really can understand what I’m trying to communicate to you.[/quote]
This might be Martian to you but I’ll try again. I totally agree that you shouldn’t buy in an area you don’t want to buy, just for the sake for rent vs buy. I say buy in an area you want to buy when it’s at least rent vs buy neutral. However, you should always plan for the worse, even when it’s rent neutral. When you plan for the worse, nothing should surprise you and you’ll have your base covered. Sure, you might hope to be able to sell at a profit in 3-5 years and move up. But you should plan for staying in it for 10+ years before you can sell for a profit. What if in the next 10-20 years, housing stay flat, just like Japan in the 90s until now. What if housing drop another 50%? Don’t buy until you’re OK w/ the worse case scenario. When it’s cheaper for me to buy than rent, I’m OK w/ those scenario. Key word is, it’s OK for ME. I can’t speak for you or anyone else. That in a nutshell is the foundation for my viewpoints.

[sdcellar]

I’ve always understood you. Understand that I have no issue with your personal purchase. Your house would be great for a lot of people and the rough numbers work.

But also understand that I am never talking about extreme/worst case scenarios. Pretty much anybody I know would be not okay with a 50% haircut if they actually took that hit. If you don’t agree, then I’ll just give you worse and worse scenarious until you do.

What I am talking about is typical. Do you plan to stay 5 years? 10? Til you die? How old are you? Do you have kids? Do you want to have kids? Do you want to be landlord down the road? Could you afford that and still pull off an upgrade buy?

All that said, I think your first example fits this perfectly (3-5 year move up based on appreciation), but what I think is lost is the notion of reasonable hope/expectation. Now, no one knows, but I contend that if someone’s plan _today_ is that they want to pull this off, they most likely will not be able to do so. Now, can they make the best of it? Of course, wise people do that.

In other words, individuals need to honestly assess probabilties. To do otherwise, simply sets them up for disappointment (and sometimes worse…)

After all, aren’t reasonable probabilities the reason guys like you and me have been around here for 4 and 2 years respectively?

(hope that last joke is okay. you have to know that I just enjoy sarcasm. i also know that it doesn’t translate in written form very well, but that doesn’t stop me. you might even think i was funny if you knew me in person…)

[sdcellar]

I’ve always understood you. Understand that I have no issue with your personal purchase. Your house would be great for a lot of people and the rough numbers work.

But also understand that I am never talking about extreme/worst case scenarios. Pretty much anybody I know would be not okay with a 50% haircut if they actually took that hit. If you don’t agree, then I’ll just give you worse and worse scenarious until you do.

What I am talking about is typical. Do you plan to stay 5 years? 10? Til you die? How old are you? Do you have kids? Do you want to have kids? Do you want to be landlord down the road? Could you afford that and still pull off an upgrade buy?

All that said, I think your first example fits this perfectly (3-5 year move up based on appreciation), but what I think is lost is the notion of reasonable hope/expectation. Now, no one knows, but I contend that if someone’s plan _today_ is that they want to pull this off, they most likely will not be able to do so. Now, can they make the best of it? Of course, wise people do that.

In other words, individuals need to honestly assess probabilties. To do otherwise, simply sets them up for disappointment (and sometimes worse…)

After all, aren’t reasonable probabilities the reason guys like you and me have been around here for 4 and 2 years respectively?

(hope that last joke is okay. you have to know that I just enjoy sarcasm. i also know that it doesn’t translate in written form very well, but that doesn’t stop me. you might even think i was funny if you knew me in person…)

[sdcellar]

I’ve always understood you. Understand that I have no issue with your personal purchase. Your house would be great for a lot of people and the rough numbers work.

But also understand that I am never talking about extreme/worst case scenarios. Pretty much anybody I know would be not okay with a 50% haircut if they actually took that hit. If you don’t agree, then I’ll just give you worse and worse scenarious until you do.

What I am talking about is typical. Do you plan to stay 5 years? 10? Til you die? How old are you? Do you have kids? Do you want to have kids? Do you want to be landlord down the road? Could you afford that and still pull off an upgrade buy?

All that said, I think your first example fits this perfectly (3-5 year move up based on appreciation), but what I think is lost is the notion of reasonable hope/expectation. Now, no one knows, but I contend that if someone’s plan _today_ is that they want to pull this off, they most likely will not be able to do so. Now, can they make the best of it? Of course, wise people do that.

In other words, individuals need to honestly assess probabilties. To do otherwise, simply sets them up for disappointment (and sometimes worse…)

After all, aren’t reasonable probabilities the reason guys like you and me have been around here for 4 and 2 years respectively?

(hope that last joke is okay. you have to know that I just enjoy sarcasm. i also know that it doesn’t translate in written form very well, but that doesn’t stop me. you might even think i was funny if you knew me in person…)

[sdcellar]

I’ve always understood you. Understand that I have no issue with your personal purchase. Your house would be great for a lot of people and the rough numbers work.

But also understand that I am never talking about extreme/worst case scenarios. Pretty much anybody I know would be not okay with a 50% haircut if they actually took that hit. If you don’t agree, then I’ll just give you worse and worse scenarious until you do.

What I am talking about is typical. Do you plan to stay 5 years? 10? Til you die? How old are you? Do you have kids? Do you want to have kids? Do you want to be landlord down the road? Could you afford that and still pull off an upgrade buy?

All that said, I think your first example fits this perfectly (3-5 year move up based on appreciation), but what I think is lost is the notion of reasonable hope/expectation. Now, no one knows, but I contend that if someone’s plan _today_ is that they want to pull this off, they most likely will not be able to do so. Now, can they make the best of it? Of course, wise people do that.

In other words, individuals need to honestly assess probabilties. To do otherwise, simply sets them up for disappointment (and sometimes worse…)

After all, aren’t reasonable probabilities the reason guys like you and me have been around here for 4 and 2 years respectively?

(hope that last joke is okay. you have to know that I just enjoy sarcasm. i also know that it doesn’t translate in written form very well, but that doesn’t stop me. you might even think i was funny if you knew me in person…)

[sdcellar]

I’ve always understood you. Understand that I have no issue with your personal purchase. Your house would be great for a lot of people and the rough numbers work.

But also understand that I am never talking about extreme/worst case scenarios. Pretty much anybody I know would be not okay with a 50% haircut if they actually took that hit. If you don’t agree, then I’ll just give you worse and worse scenarious until you do.

What I am talking about is typical. Do you plan to stay 5 years? 10? Til you die? How old are you? Do you have kids? Do you want to have kids? Do you want to be landlord down the road? Could you afford that and still pull off an upgrade buy?

All that said, I think your first example fits this perfectly (3-5 year move up based on appreciation), but what I think is lost is the notion of reasonable hope/expectation. Now, no one knows, but I contend that if someone’s plan _today_ is that they want to pull this off, they most likely will not be able to do so. Now, can they make the best of it? Of course, wise people do that.

In other words, individuals need to honestly assess probabilties. To do otherwise, simply sets them up for disappointment (and sometimes worse…)

After all, aren’t reasonable probabilities the reason guys like you and me have been around here for 4 and 2 years respectively?

(hope that last joke is okay. you have to know that I just enjoy sarcasm. i also know that it doesn’t translate in written form very well, but that doesn’t stop me. you might even think i was funny if you knew me in person…)

[an]

Funny how you claim to always understood me, yet you seem to be the most viscous here when it comes to nit picking my post and attacking me.

50% haircut from here is an extreme case. I’m not denying that. But as I’ve said before, if my mortgage continue to be less than my comparable rent, I would still be OK with it. I don’t plan to sell this house, that’s why it’s OK with me if it dip for a few years. For those who do plan to sell in the next 5-10 years, they should definitely consider the possibility/probability of not even breaking even when they need to sell.

Were those questions directed at me specifically or just the questions one should ask themselves before they decide to buy? All of those questions you just asked are the questions I asked myself long before I decide to purchase.

One should properly assess all the probable scenarios and what’s the probability of them happening. Then make their decision based on what they think would happen and would you still be OK if a different scenario occur. Everyone is different and every area is different. No one here can make decision for you. Only you can do that, since you’re the one who will have to live with that decision.

One other thing you have to consider is, what you think is a reasonable probability might not be reasonable probability for me, and vice versa.

[an]

Funny how you claim to always understood me, yet you seem to be the most viscous here when it comes to nit picking my post and attacking me.

50% haircut from here is an extreme case. I’m not denying that. But as I’ve said before, if my mortgage continue to be less than my comparable rent, I would still be OK with it. I don’t plan to sell this house, that’s why it’s OK with me if it dip for a few years. For those who do plan to sell in the next 5-10 years, they should definitely consider the possibility/probability of not even breaking even when they need to sell.

Were those questions directed at me specifically or just the questions one should ask themselves before they decide to buy? All of those questions you just asked are the questions I asked myself long before I decide to purchase.

One should properly assess all the probable scenarios and what’s the probability of them happening. Then make their decision based on what they think would happen and would you still be OK if a different scenario occur. Everyone is different and every area is different. No one here can make decision for you. Only you can do that, since you’re the one who will have to live with that decision.

One other thing you have to consider is, what you think is a reasonable probability might not be reasonable probability for me, and vice versa.

[an]

Funny how you claim to always understood me, yet you seem to be the most viscous here when it comes to nit picking my post and attacking me.

50% haircut from here is an extreme case. I’m not denying that. But as I’ve said before, if my mortgage continue to be less than my comparable rent, I would still be OK with it. I don’t plan to sell this house, that’s why it’s OK with me if it dip for a few years. For those who do plan to sell in the next 5-10 years, they should definitely consider the possibility/probability of not even breaking even when they need to sell.

Were those questions directed at me specifically or just the questions one should ask themselves before they decide to buy? All of those questions you just asked are the questions I asked myself long before I decide to purchase.

One should properly assess all the probable scenarios and what’s the probability of them happening. Then make their decision based on what they think would happen and would you still be OK if a different scenario occur. Everyone is different and every area is different. No one here can make decision for you. Only you can do that, since you’re the one who will have to live with that decision.

One other thing you have to consider is, what you think is a reasonable probability might not be reasonable probability for me, and vice versa.

[an]

Funny how you claim to always understood me, yet you seem to be the most viscous here when it comes to nit picking my post and attacking me.

50% haircut from here is an extreme case. I’m not denying that. But as I’ve said before, if my mortgage continue to be less than my comparable rent, I would still be OK with it. I don’t plan to sell this house, that’s why it’s OK with me if it dip for a few years. For those who do plan to sell in the next 5-10 years, they should definitely consider the possibility/probability of not even breaking even when they need to sell.

Were those questions directed at me specifically or just the questions one should ask themselves before they decide to buy? All of those questions you just asked are the questions I asked myself long before I decide to purchase.

One should properly assess all the probable scenarios and what’s the probability of them happening. Then make their decision based on what they think would happen and would you still be OK if a different scenario occur. Everyone is different and every area is different. No one here can make decision for you. Only you can do that, since you’re the one who will have to live with that decision.

One other thing you have to consider is, what you think is a reasonable probability might not be reasonable probability for me, and vice versa.

[Author]

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