Why the Stock Market will continue to fall…

[kewp]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be.

The best place to have money invested since 2000 has been gold.

There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward.

And real estate never goes down, right?

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

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