Why the Stock Market will continue to fall…

[contraman]

Lately, I have noticed several articles and stories written about how people are beginning to tap their "401K's / Retirement Accounts" to pay their bills and put food on the table. I have even seen a company that is promoting a debit type of card for these accounts to make the process easier and more convenient.

This is going to be a huge problem for the stock market going forward and here is why……

People contribute to their 401K every paycheck. This money goes into their account and then based upon the funds they have chosen, it is invested in a basket of equities.

This has been one of the main contributors to the rise of equities since the inception of this type of practice years ago. 401K's and Mutual Funds.

Here is what happens over the next few years.

A) People start to drastically reduce the amount of money taken from their paycheck every two weeks that goes toward their 401K to pay the bills.

B) People take early withdrawals from their existing retirement accounts to stay afloat (no more equity line bailout). (I have several clients doing this now to pay the mortgage).

C) Both of these practices will slowly drain the stock markets value over the next 3 to 5 years.

We may see a bear market in equities for years here as things continue to unravel in the housing markets….

[Coronita]

doubt it. depends on  what percentage of people are really in trouble.

Not everyone is in trouble.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[kewp]

Not everyone is in trouble.

The worst is yet to come.

We’ll see how everyone is doing once the correction/crash is over and done with.

[blackbox]

I hope the market goes down for as long as you said it might, but I doubt it. I would love to be investing half of my income in a down or flat market. That would be fantastic!

Dollar cost average the hell of the market right now!
Hold your nose, and invest aggresively thoughout the year for years to come.

If you have a decade of two before you retire….

Long down markets the best time to invest if you don’t look at your portfolio much. Just max out your 401K, max out your roth IRA if you qualify, and max out your HSA account if you qualify also. Put it on automatic up until 5 years before you plan to retire…….
Save and invest every month with your non-retirement accounts, but remember keep liquid 6 months to 2 years living expenses in a bank money market fund. The rest you can invest in a tax free muni fund, or some low cost mutual funds that are tax efficient.

[blackbox]

I hope the market goes down for as long as you said it might, but I doubt it. I would love to be investing half of my income in a down or flat market. That would be fantastic!

Dollar cost average the hell of the market right now!
Hold your nose, and invest aggresively thoughout the year for years to come.

If you have a decade of two before you retire….

Long down markets the best time to invest if you don’t look at your portfolio much. Just max out your 401K, max out your roth IRA if you qualify, and max out your HSA account if you qualify also. Put it on automatic up until 5 years before you plan to retire…….
Save and invest every month with your non-retirement accounts, but remember keep liquid 6 months to 2 years living expenses in a bank money market fund. The rest you can invest in a tax free muni fund, or some low cost mutual funds that are tax efficient.

[blackbox]

I hope the market goes down for as long as you said it might, but I doubt it. I would love to be investing half of my income in a down or flat market. That would be fantastic!

Dollar cost average the hell of the market right now!
Hold your nose, and invest aggresively thoughout the year for years to come.

If you have a decade of two before you retire….

Long down markets the best time to invest if you don’t look at your portfolio much. Just max out your 401K, max out your roth IRA if you qualify, and max out your HSA account if you qualify also. Put it on automatic up until 5 years before you plan to retire…….
Save and invest every month with your non-retirement accounts, but remember keep liquid 6 months to 2 years living expenses in a bank money market fund. The rest you can invest in a tax free muni fund, or some low cost mutual funds that are tax efficient.

[blackbox]

I hope the market goes down for as long as you said it might, but I doubt it. I would love to be investing half of my income in a down or flat market. That would be fantastic!

Dollar cost average the hell of the market right now!
Hold your nose, and invest aggresively thoughout the year for years to come.

If you have a decade of two before you retire….

Long down markets the best time to invest if you don’t look at your portfolio much. Just max out your 401K, max out your roth IRA if you qualify, and max out your HSA account if you qualify also. Put it on automatic up until 5 years before you plan to retire…….
Save and invest every month with your non-retirement accounts, but remember keep liquid 6 months to 2 years living expenses in a bank money market fund. The rest you can invest in a tax free muni fund, or some low cost mutual funds that are tax efficient.

[blackbox]

I hope the market goes down for as long as you said it might, but I doubt it. I would love to be investing half of my income in a down or flat market. That would be fantastic!

Dollar cost average the hell of the market right now!
Hold your nose, and invest aggresively thoughout the year for years to come.

If you have a decade of two before you retire….

Long down markets the best time to invest if you don’t look at your portfolio much. Just max out your 401K, max out your roth IRA if you qualify, and max out your HSA account if you qualify also. Put it on automatic up until 5 years before you plan to retire…….
Save and invest every month with your non-retirement accounts, but remember keep liquid 6 months to 2 years living expenses in a bank money market fund. The rest you can invest in a tax free muni fund, or some low cost mutual funds that are tax efficient.

[kewp]

Not everyone is in trouble.

The worst is yet to come.

We’ll see how everyone is doing once the correction/crash is over and done with.

[kewp]

Not everyone is in trouble.

The worst is yet to come.

We’ll see how everyone is doing once the correction/crash is over and done with.

[kewp]

Not everyone is in trouble.

The worst is yet to come.

We’ll see how everyone is doing once the correction/crash is over and done with.

[kewp]

Not everyone is in trouble.

The worst is yet to come.

We’ll see how everyone is doing once the correction/crash is over and done with.

[Coronita]

doubt it. depends on  what percentage of people are really in trouble.

Not everyone is in trouble.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

doubt it. depends on  what percentage of people are really in trouble.

Not everyone is in trouble.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

doubt it. depends on  what percentage of people are really in trouble.

Not everyone is in trouble.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

doubt it. depends on  what percentage of people are really in trouble.

Not everyone is in trouble.[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Anonymous]

Contraman, interesting idea, but do you have any numbers to back this up? (e.g., what percentage of equity value is purchased through 401k’s per income bracket)

My gut feeling is that if all of the people in, say, the lower half of median income cash in their 401k’s tomorrow it won’t have a big effect on the market.

But I am just guessing…

[bob007]

most of the 401k money is with upper middle class folks who are financially secure

[bob007]

most of the 401k money is with upper middle class folks who are financially secure

[bob007]

most of the 401k money is with upper middle class folks who are financially secure

[bob007]

most of the 401k money is with upper middle class folks who are financially secure

[bob007]

most of the 401k money is with upper middle class folks who are financially secure

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t worry too much about falling stock market value/volume due to people tapping into 401K’s to pay bills. That’s not something that will translate immediately into stock prices because people are really only borrowing on the value of the stocks in their retirement accounts rather than actually selling the stocks in them.

I’d start worrying when these savers turn 70 1/2 and are forced by law to start withdrawing income. THEN they will HAVE to sell stocks to get their annuized incomes. That’s when stock values will start to go down. There will be more people withdrawing from stocks than will be buying into them (due to the larger retired vs. working population).

Nothing to worry about this year. In 9 years, however….

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t worry too much about falling stock market value/volume due to people tapping into 401K’s to pay bills. That’s not something that will translate immediately into stock prices because people are really only borrowing on the value of the stocks in their retirement accounts rather than actually selling the stocks in them.

I’d start worrying when these savers turn 70 1/2 and are forced by law to start withdrawing income. THEN they will HAVE to sell stocks to get their annuized incomes. That’s when stock values will start to go down. There will be more people withdrawing from stocks than will be buying into them (due to the larger retired vs. working population).

Nothing to worry about this year. In 9 years, however….

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t worry too much about falling stock market value/volume due to people tapping into 401K’s to pay bills. That’s not something that will translate immediately into stock prices because people are really only borrowing on the value of the stocks in their retirement accounts rather than actually selling the stocks in them.

I’d start worrying when these savers turn 70 1/2 and are forced by law to start withdrawing income. THEN they will HAVE to sell stocks to get their annuized incomes. That’s when stock values will start to go down. There will be more people withdrawing from stocks than will be buying into them (due to the larger retired vs. working population).

Nothing to worry about this year. In 9 years, however….

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t worry too much about falling stock market value/volume due to people tapping into 401K’s to pay bills. That’s not something that will translate immediately into stock prices because people are really only borrowing on the value of the stocks in their retirement accounts rather than actually selling the stocks in them.

I’d start worrying when these savers turn 70 1/2 and are forced by law to start withdrawing income. THEN they will HAVE to sell stocks to get their annuized incomes. That’s when stock values will start to go down. There will be more people withdrawing from stocks than will be buying into them (due to the larger retired vs. working population).

Nothing to worry about this year. In 9 years, however….

[Deal Hunter]

I wouldn’t worry too much about falling stock market value/volume due to people tapping into 401K’s to pay bills. That’s not something that will translate immediately into stock prices because people are really only borrowing on the value of the stocks in their retirement accounts rather than actually selling the stocks in them.

I’d start worrying when these savers turn 70 1/2 and are forced by law to start withdrawing income. THEN they will HAVE to sell stocks to get their annuized incomes. That’s when stock values will start to go down. There will be more people withdrawing from stocks than will be buying into them (due to the larger retired vs. working population).

Nothing to worry about this year. In 9 years, however….

[Sandi Egan]

Mean,

I agree that the govt is trying to outprint the deflation. I don’t think that’s possible, though: if they print enough to stop the deflation, the people will not be able to buy food with their current incomes. There is just to much debt to cover, IMO.
And boomers – with their fixed incomes – will be hit the most by the inflationary policy.

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

[Deal Hunter]

"Either way, I don't believe it's possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it."

Technically, there is a way to escape debt.  In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.  That is going to be harder to accomplish in this century, but debt forgiveness has already been done.

Step 1: Our retirement accounts have forgiven the big banks.  Wall street "wrote down" massive amounts of investment value due to subprime derivatives and institutional investors that bought those derivatives were forced to take smaller yields or in some cases, no yields at all.

Step 2: Secondary markets will have to write down even more mortgage debt in order to return purchasing power back to consumers.  Consumption is the heartbeat of our economy.  If debtors don't forgive debts (or upside down mortgages), then whatever little cash consumers get will go toward paying down debt rather than spending it back into the economy.

Step 3: Tax reform will facilitate debt forgiveness.  Banks and mortgage companies will cut homeowners' debts to fall more in line with the market value of homes – thereby returning equity to the homeowner and encouraging consumption again – all in hopes of revitializing the economy.

So, technically, we ALL escape today's debt.  The homeowners, the banks and insurers will be relieved of their obligations by being able to write it all off on taxes.

The problem is that all that debt is reallly just being pushed off to our children – for when they reach working age and take on the tax burden we create today upon their shoulders in the future. 

 

 

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Sandi Egan]

Deal Hunter wrote: Technically, there is a way to escape debt. In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.
Mean Reversion wrote: It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

That’s exactly my point, guys. It has to be paid, either by the debtors, by the creditors or by the government ( which means the rest of us through taxes and inflation). Apparently, each party will have to pay some of it. We will see who will end up with the lion’s share.
Because the enormous amount of debt, I don’t believe it’s possible to write it all down through inflation – that will cause even worse problems. Even BB understands that (although he pretends he doesn’t).

[Deal Hunter]

"Either way, I don't believe it's possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it."

Technically, there is a way to escape debt.  In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.  That is going to be harder to accomplish in this century, but debt forgiveness has already been done.

Step 1: Our retirement accounts have forgiven the big banks.  Wall street "wrote down" massive amounts of investment value due to subprime derivatives and institutional investors that bought those derivatives were forced to take smaller yields or in some cases, no yields at all.

Step 2: Secondary markets will have to write down even more mortgage debt in order to return purchasing power back to consumers.  Consumption is the heartbeat of our economy.  If debtors don't forgive debts (or upside down mortgages), then whatever little cash consumers get will go toward paying down debt rather than spending it back into the economy.

Step 3: Tax reform will facilitate debt forgiveness.  Banks and mortgage companies will cut homeowners' debts to fall more in line with the market value of homes – thereby returning equity to the homeowner and encouraging consumption again – all in hopes of revitializing the economy.

So, technically, we ALL escape today's debt.  The homeowners, the banks and insurers will be relieved of their obligations by being able to write it all off on taxes.

The problem is that all that debt is reallly just being pushed off to our children – for when they reach working age and take on the tax burden we create today upon their shoulders in the future. 

 

 

[Deal Hunter]

"Either way, I don't believe it's possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it."

Technically, there is a way to escape debt.  In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.  That is going to be harder to accomplish in this century, but debt forgiveness has already been done.

Step 1: Our retirement accounts have forgiven the big banks.  Wall street "wrote down" massive amounts of investment value due to subprime derivatives and institutional investors that bought those derivatives were forced to take smaller yields or in some cases, no yields at all.

Step 2: Secondary markets will have to write down even more mortgage debt in order to return purchasing power back to consumers.  Consumption is the heartbeat of our economy.  If debtors don't forgive debts (or upside down mortgages), then whatever little cash consumers get will go toward paying down debt rather than spending it back into the economy.

Step 3: Tax reform will facilitate debt forgiveness.  Banks and mortgage companies will cut homeowners' debts to fall more in line with the market value of homes – thereby returning equity to the homeowner and encouraging consumption again – all in hopes of revitializing the economy.

So, technically, we ALL escape today's debt.  The homeowners, the banks and insurers will be relieved of their obligations by being able to write it all off on taxes.

The problem is that all that debt is reallly just being pushed off to our children – for when they reach working age and take on the tax burden we create today upon their shoulders in the future. 

 

 

[Deal Hunter]

"Either way, I don't believe it's possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it."

Technically, there is a way to escape debt.  In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.  That is going to be harder to accomplish in this century, but debt forgiveness has already been done.

Step 1: Our retirement accounts have forgiven the big banks.  Wall street "wrote down" massive amounts of investment value due to subprime derivatives and institutional investors that bought those derivatives were forced to take smaller yields or in some cases, no yields at all.

Step 2: Secondary markets will have to write down even more mortgage debt in order to return purchasing power back to consumers.  Consumption is the heartbeat of our economy.  If debtors don't forgive debts (or upside down mortgages), then whatever little cash consumers get will go toward paying down debt rather than spending it back into the economy.

Step 3: Tax reform will facilitate debt forgiveness.  Banks and mortgage companies will cut homeowners' debts to fall more in line with the market value of homes – thereby returning equity to the homeowner and encouraging consumption again – all in hopes of revitializing the economy.

So, technically, we ALL escape today's debt.  The homeowners, the banks and insurers will be relieved of their obligations by being able to write it all off on taxes.

The problem is that all that debt is reallly just being pushed off to our children – for when they reach working age and take on the tax burden we create today upon their shoulders in the future. 

 

 

[Deal Hunter]

"Either way, I don't believe it's possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it."

Technically, there is a way to escape debt.  In 1929, the government stepped in and paid it off for everyone.  That is going to be harder to accomplish in this century, but debt forgiveness has already been done.

Step 1: Our retirement accounts have forgiven the big banks.  Wall street "wrote down" massive amounts of investment value due to subprime derivatives and institutional investors that bought those derivatives were forced to take smaller yields or in some cases, no yields at all.

Step 2: Secondary markets will have to write down even more mortgage debt in order to return purchasing power back to consumers.  Consumption is the heartbeat of our economy.  If debtors don't forgive debts (or upside down mortgages), then whatever little cash consumers get will go toward paying down debt rather than spending it back into the economy.

Step 3: Tax reform will facilitate debt forgiveness.  Banks and mortgage companies will cut homeowners' debts to fall more in line with the market value of homes – thereby returning equity to the homeowner and encouraging consumption again – all in hopes of revitializing the economy.

So, technically, we ALL escape today's debt.  The homeowners, the banks and insurers will be relieved of their obligations by being able to write it all off on taxes.

The problem is that all that debt is reallly just being pushed off to our children – for when they reach working age and take on the tax burden we create today upon their shoulders in the future. 

 

 

[Mean Reversion]

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

To cite an extreme example and make a point. During the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in Germany 1923, if you would have loaned out money for someone to buy a car before the hyperinflation, when he later paid you back, those same Marks would only buy you a carton of eggs.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be. There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward. All these theories about why what has always been but will never be again are odd. Why is it that people cannot accept that things are going to be ok?

This theory is based on no facts at all and flies in the face of a over 100 year record of rising prices. Bad news and scare tactics sells tickets, but won’t make you any money. This dip we are experiencing is a buying opportunity, not right here exactly, but very soon.

[kewp]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be.

The best place to have money invested since 2000 has been gold.

There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward.

And real estate never goes down, right?

[kewp]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be.

The best place to have money invested since 2000 has been gold.

There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward.

And real estate never goes down, right?

[kewp]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be.

The best place to have money invested since 2000 has been gold.

There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward.

And real estate never goes down, right?

[kewp]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be.

The best place to have money invested since 2000 has been gold.

There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward.

And real estate never goes down, right?

[kewp]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be.

The best place to have money invested since 2000 has been gold.

There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward.

And real estate never goes down, right?

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

I disagree. In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

[TheBreeze]

My time horizon is 15 years+. That is, if everything goes well, I could be early-retired (if I choose to do so) in 15 years. If things don’t go so well, I’ll have to push it out accordingly.

I’ve tried market timing in the past and found that I’m not so good at it. Periodic investing seems to work for me. I think it would be dumb for me to pull back from my periodic investments now given that I was doing periodic investments when the DOW was at 14K. There’s no doubt that putting money into the market now is much better than doing it when the market was at 14K.

Could the DOW go to 10K? Absolutely. Could it go to 7K? Possible, but very unlikely in my opinion. In any event, as long as I continue the periodic investing, I’ll get some in at the tops of course — but I’ll also get some in near the bottom. The risk of course is that I get laid off and have to stop the periodic investing. That could happen, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

[contraman]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices. I wish Am Vets and Goodwill was publicly traded!

Sincerely, Contraman

[blackbox]

That would be fantastic!
wow, dow 8000 would be a dream!
Cool………CHA-CHING

[blackbox]

That would be fantastic!
wow, dow 8000 would be a dream!
Cool………CHA-CHING

[blackbox]

That would be fantastic!
wow, dow 8000 would be a dream!
Cool………CHA-CHING

[blackbox]

That would be fantastic!
wow, dow 8000 would be a dream!
Cool………CHA-CHING

[blackbox]

That would be fantastic!
wow, dow 8000 would be a dream!
Cool………CHA-CHING

[TheBreeze]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices.

I can’t argue with your reasoning. To be fair though, the Dow was at 8000 back in 1998 also. Oh well, a few more years of working for me. Send me a postcard from your island when you buy it. 😉

[TheBreeze]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices.

I can’t argue with your reasoning. To be fair though, the Dow was at 8000 back in 1998 also. Oh well, a few more years of working for me. Send me a postcard from your island when you buy it. 😉

[TheBreeze]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices.

I can’t argue with your reasoning. To be fair though, the Dow was at 8000 back in 1998 also. Oh well, a few more years of working for me. Send me a postcard from your island when you buy it. 😉

[TheBreeze]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices.

I can’t argue with your reasoning. To be fair though, the Dow was at 8000 back in 1998 also. Oh well, a few more years of working for me. Send me a postcard from your island when you buy it. 😉

[TheBreeze]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices.

I can’t argue with your reasoning. To be fair though, the Dow was at 8000 back in 1998 also. Oh well, a few more years of working for me. Send me a postcard from your island when you buy it. 😉

[contraman]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices. I wish Am Vets and Goodwill was publicly traded!

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices. I wish Am Vets and Goodwill was publicly traded!

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices. I wish Am Vets and Goodwill was publicly traded!

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Breeze, my call is market (Dow) retraces to 2002 levels of 8000. Most everything in between has been false run up from people stripping equity from homes and buying things propping up stock prices. I wish Am Vets and Goodwill was publicly traded!

Sincerely, Contraman

[TheBreeze]

My time horizon is 15 years+. That is, if everything goes well, I could be early-retired (if I choose to do so) in 15 years. If things don’t go so well, I’ll have to push it out accordingly.

I’ve tried market timing in the past and found that I’m not so good at it. Periodic investing seems to work for me. I think it would be dumb for me to pull back from my periodic investments now given that I was doing periodic investments when the DOW was at 14K. There’s no doubt that putting money into the market now is much better than doing it when the market was at 14K.

Could the DOW go to 10K? Absolutely. Could it go to 7K? Possible, but very unlikely in my opinion. In any event, as long as I continue the periodic investing, I’ll get some in at the tops of course — but I’ll also get some in near the bottom. The risk of course is that I get laid off and have to stop the periodic investing. That could happen, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

[TheBreeze]

My time horizon is 15 years+. That is, if everything goes well, I could be early-retired (if I choose to do so) in 15 years. If things don’t go so well, I’ll have to push it out accordingly.

I’ve tried market timing in the past and found that I’m not so good at it. Periodic investing seems to work for me. I think it would be dumb for me to pull back from my periodic investments now given that I was doing periodic investments when the DOW was at 14K. There’s no doubt that putting money into the market now is much better than doing it when the market was at 14K.

Could the DOW go to 10K? Absolutely. Could it go to 7K? Possible, but very unlikely in my opinion. In any event, as long as I continue the periodic investing, I’ll get some in at the tops of course — but I’ll also get some in near the bottom. The risk of course is that I get laid off and have to stop the periodic investing. That could happen, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

[TheBreeze]

My time horizon is 15 years+. That is, if everything goes well, I could be early-retired (if I choose to do so) in 15 years. If things don’t go so well, I’ll have to push it out accordingly.

I’ve tried market timing in the past and found that I’m not so good at it. Periodic investing seems to work for me. I think it would be dumb for me to pull back from my periodic investments now given that I was doing periodic investments when the DOW was at 14K. There’s no doubt that putting money into the market now is much better than doing it when the market was at 14K.

Could the DOW go to 10K? Absolutely. Could it go to 7K? Possible, but very unlikely in my opinion. In any event, as long as I continue the periodic investing, I’ll get some in at the tops of course — but I’ll also get some in near the bottom. The risk of course is that I get laid off and have to stop the periodic investing. That could happen, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

[TheBreeze]

My time horizon is 15 years+. That is, if everything goes well, I could be early-retired (if I choose to do so) in 15 years. If things don’t go so well, I’ll have to push it out accordingly.

I’ve tried market timing in the past and found that I’m not so good at it. Periodic investing seems to work for me. I think it would be dumb for me to pull back from my periodic investments now given that I was doing periodic investments when the DOW was at 14K. There’s no doubt that putting money into the market now is much better than doing it when the market was at 14K.

Could the DOW go to 10K? Absolutely. Could it go to 7K? Possible, but very unlikely in my opinion. In any event, as long as I continue the periodic investing, I’ll get some in at the tops of course — but I’ll also get some in near the bottom. The risk of course is that I get laid off and have to stop the periodic investing. That could happen, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

[kewp]

In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

[blackbox]

Just started a new automatic investing in my 401K. I had a third in cash since the top last year. 5 great funds, by 5 great managers with great track records. I am putting a portion of my cash and current contributions in each every month. I hope there is like a 800 point down one day so I can put a big chunk in. This really is a fantastic time to dollar cost average! I also put a little in my non-retirement mutual funds today. Since I have 70% cash in those accounts, I have the opportunity to buy low when others are selling. Yeah, I am losing money on my 401ks and IRA right now, but I don’t need the money for at least 2 decades so this truely is one of those times in a generation when you can really make a Positive long term inpact on your net worth by investing on a monthly basis as the market gets hit day after day!
I love big down days in the market! Keep them coming!
If you can stay employed during these next 3 terrible years, and I will, the investing you make on these down markets will pay big time in the future!

[blackbox]

Just started a new automatic investing in my 401K. I had a third in cash since the top last year. 5 great funds, by 5 great managers with great track records. I am putting a portion of my cash and current contributions in each every month. I hope there is like a 800 point down one day so I can put a big chunk in. This really is a fantastic time to dollar cost average! I also put a little in my non-retirement mutual funds today. Since I have 70% cash in those accounts, I have the opportunity to buy low when others are selling. Yeah, I am losing money on my 401ks and IRA right now, but I don’t need the money for at least 2 decades so this truely is one of those times in a generation when you can really make a Positive long term inpact on your net worth by investing on a monthly basis as the market gets hit day after day!
I love big down days in the market! Keep them coming!
If you can stay employed during these next 3 terrible years, and I will, the investing you make on these down markets will pay big time in the future!

[blackbox]

Just started a new automatic investing in my 401K. I had a third in cash since the top last year. 5 great funds, by 5 great managers with great track records. I am putting a portion of my cash and current contributions in each every month. I hope there is like a 800 point down one day so I can put a big chunk in. This really is a fantastic time to dollar cost average! I also put a little in my non-retirement mutual funds today. Since I have 70% cash in those accounts, I have the opportunity to buy low when others are selling. Yeah, I am losing money on my 401ks and IRA right now, but I don’t need the money for at least 2 decades so this truely is one of those times in a generation when you can really make a Positive long term inpact on your net worth by investing on a monthly basis as the market gets hit day after day!
I love big down days in the market! Keep them coming!
If you can stay employed during these next 3 terrible years, and I will, the investing you make on these down markets will pay big time in the future!

[blackbox]

Just started a new automatic investing in my 401K. I had a third in cash since the top last year. 5 great funds, by 5 great managers with great track records. I am putting a portion of my cash and current contributions in each every month. I hope there is like a 800 point down one day so I can put a big chunk in. This really is a fantastic time to dollar cost average! I also put a little in my non-retirement mutual funds today. Since I have 70% cash in those accounts, I have the opportunity to buy low when others are selling. Yeah, I am losing money on my 401ks and IRA right now, but I don’t need the money for at least 2 decades so this truely is one of those times in a generation when you can really make a Positive long term inpact on your net worth by investing on a monthly basis as the market gets hit day after day!
I love big down days in the market! Keep them coming!
If you can stay employed during these next 3 terrible years, and I will, the investing you make on these down markets will pay big time in the future!

[blackbox]

Just started a new automatic investing in my 401K. I had a third in cash since the top last year. 5 great funds, by 5 great managers with great track records. I am putting a portion of my cash and current contributions in each every month. I hope there is like a 800 point down one day so I can put a big chunk in. This really is a fantastic time to dollar cost average! I also put a little in my non-retirement mutual funds today. Since I have 70% cash in those accounts, I have the opportunity to buy low when others are selling. Yeah, I am losing money on my 401ks and IRA right now, but I don’t need the money for at least 2 decades so this truely is one of those times in a generation when you can really make a Positive long term inpact on your net worth by investing on a monthly basis as the market gets hit day after day!
I love big down days in the market! Keep them coming!
If you can stay employed during these next 3 terrible years, and I will, the investing you make on these down markets will pay big time in the future!

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

No knife-catching here. I am simply suggesting that timing the stock market is not as simple as some people claim it is. Once the smoke is clear, the lack of smoke is priced into stocks. Maybe you interpreted this to be in reference to the housing market. In that case I would agree with you. But with stocks, the markets swing too quickly to time as well as real estate. I would rather stick to my asset allocations and add to certain positions on weakness. Perhaps I am not nearly as smart as others on this board.

[Casca]

I remember the DOW breaking 1000 when Nixon was in office, then things started to slide with the ’72 Oil Embargo. Jimmy road that wave all the way to a loss in ’80, all the while accusing us of “malaise”. Reagan handed Voelker the reins at the fed, and told him that he’d pay the political price of beating inflation, and we rode that wave up through today, with a few other anomalies added to the mix. I forget the exact number, but the DOW had at least quadrupled by the time RR left office, and then there was Greenspan. These are interesting times folks.

[equalizer]

Mutual fund outflows in Jan, Feb are a factor. Those people obviously listened to Chris Scoreboar., while some of us were mesmerized by the Kudlow, BoB Brinker, and didn’t heed his warning. So its easy for Chris to not panic because he hopefully followed his own advice and isn’t down for the year.People watching their retirement accounts may worry that near 20% correction in S&P 500 may be a harbinger of the 50% correction from 2000-02, and some people may want to diversify if they are 100% stocks.

Of course, it may be good time to DCA into banks,etc. Even I was the fool for buying WAMU a few days ago, expecting a surprise 0.75 Fed cut will cause 20% pop. Now we need a 50% pop. Of course, I was lucky that I panicked last August and sold WAMU at 33.

"The sharp declines in stock markets in the first few weeks of the year prompted investors in the US – the world’s largest mutual fund market – to pull a net $32.9bn (€22.4bn) from equity funds in January, the worst month of outflows since July 2002." http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2449887526 I heard that Feb was also neg.

[equalizer]

Mutual fund outflows in Jan, Feb are a factor. Those people obviously listened to Chris Scoreboar., while some of us were mesmerized by the Kudlow, BoB Brinker, and didn’t heed his warning. So its easy for Chris to not panic because he hopefully followed his own advice and isn’t down for the year.People watching their retirement accounts may worry that near 20% correction in S&P 500 may be a harbinger of the 50% correction from 2000-02, and some people may want to diversify if they are 100% stocks.

Of course, it may be good time to DCA into banks,etc. Even I was the fool for buying WAMU a few days ago, expecting a surprise 0.75 Fed cut will cause 20% pop. Now we need a 50% pop. Of course, I was lucky that I panicked last August and sold WAMU at 33.

"The sharp declines in stock markets in the first few weeks of the year prompted investors in the US – the world’s largest mutual fund market – to pull a net $32.9bn (€22.4bn) from equity funds in January, the worst month of outflows since July 2002." http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2449887526 I heard that Feb was also neg.

[equalizer]

Mutual fund outflows in Jan, Feb are a factor. Those people obviously listened to Chris Scoreboar., while some of us were mesmerized by the Kudlow, BoB Brinker, and didn’t heed his warning. So its easy for Chris to not panic because he hopefully followed his own advice and isn’t down for the year.People watching their retirement accounts may worry that near 20% correction in S&P 500 may be a harbinger of the 50% correction from 2000-02, and some people may want to diversify if they are 100% stocks.

Of course, it may be good time to DCA into banks,etc. Even I was the fool for buying WAMU a few days ago, expecting a surprise 0.75 Fed cut will cause 20% pop. Now we need a 50% pop. Of course, I was lucky that I panicked last August and sold WAMU at 33.

"The sharp declines in stock markets in the first few weeks of the year prompted investors in the US – the world’s largest mutual fund market – to pull a net $32.9bn (€22.4bn) from equity funds in January, the worst month of outflows since July 2002." http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2449887526 I heard that Feb was also neg.

[equalizer]

Mutual fund outflows in Jan, Feb are a factor. Those people obviously listened to Chris Scoreboar., while some of us were mesmerized by the Kudlow, BoB Brinker, and didn’t heed his warning. So its easy for Chris to not panic because he hopefully followed his own advice and isn’t down for the year.People watching their retirement accounts may worry that near 20% correction in S&P 500 may be a harbinger of the 50% correction from 2000-02, and some people may want to diversify if they are 100% stocks.

Of course, it may be good time to DCA into banks,etc. Even I was the fool for buying WAMU a few days ago, expecting a surprise 0.75 Fed cut will cause 20% pop. Now we need a 50% pop. Of course, I was lucky that I panicked last August and sold WAMU at 33.

"The sharp declines in stock markets in the first few weeks of the year prompted investors in the US – the world’s largest mutual fund market – to pull a net $32.9bn (€22.4bn) from equity funds in January, the worst month of outflows since July 2002." http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2449887526 I heard that Feb was also neg.

[equalizer]

Mutual fund outflows in Jan, Feb are a factor. Those people obviously listened to Chris Scoreboar., while some of us were mesmerized by the Kudlow, BoB Brinker, and didn’t heed his warning. So its easy for Chris to not panic because he hopefully followed his own advice and isn’t down for the year.People watching their retirement accounts may worry that near 20% correction in S&P 500 may be a harbinger of the 50% correction from 2000-02, and some people may want to diversify if they are 100% stocks.

Of course, it may be good time to DCA into banks,etc. Even I was the fool for buying WAMU a few days ago, expecting a surprise 0.75 Fed cut will cause 20% pop. Now we need a 50% pop. Of course, I was lucky that I panicked last August and sold WAMU at 33.

"The sharp declines in stock markets in the first few weeks of the year prompted investors in the US – the world’s largest mutual fund market – to pull a net $32.9bn (€22.4bn) from equity funds in January, the worst month of outflows since July 2002." http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2449887526 I heard that Feb was also neg.

[Casca]

I remember the DOW breaking 1000 when Nixon was in office, then things started to slide with the ’72 Oil Embargo. Jimmy road that wave all the way to a loss in ’80, all the while accusing us of “malaise”. Reagan handed Voelker the reins at the fed, and told him that he’d pay the political price of beating inflation, and we rode that wave up through today, with a few other anomalies added to the mix. I forget the exact number, but the DOW had at least quadrupled by the time RR left office, and then there was Greenspan. These are interesting times folks.

[Casca]

I remember the DOW breaking 1000 when Nixon was in office, then things started to slide with the ’72 Oil Embargo. Jimmy road that wave all the way to a loss in ’80, all the while accusing us of “malaise”. Reagan handed Voelker the reins at the fed, and told him that he’d pay the political price of beating inflation, and we rode that wave up through today, with a few other anomalies added to the mix. I forget the exact number, but the DOW had at least quadrupled by the time RR left office, and then there was Greenspan. These are interesting times folks.

[Casca]

I remember the DOW breaking 1000 when Nixon was in office, then things started to slide with the ’72 Oil Embargo. Jimmy road that wave all the way to a loss in ’80, all the while accusing us of “malaise”. Reagan handed Voelker the reins at the fed, and told him that he’d pay the political price of beating inflation, and we rode that wave up through today, with a few other anomalies added to the mix. I forget the exact number, but the DOW had at least quadrupled by the time RR left office, and then there was Greenspan. These are interesting times folks.

[Casca]

I remember the DOW breaking 1000 when Nixon was in office, then things started to slide with the ’72 Oil Embargo. Jimmy road that wave all the way to a loss in ’80, all the while accusing us of “malaise”. Reagan handed Voelker the reins at the fed, and told him that he’d pay the political price of beating inflation, and we rode that wave up through today, with a few other anomalies added to the mix. I forget the exact number, but the DOW had at least quadrupled by the time RR left office, and then there was Greenspan. These are interesting times folks.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

No knife-catching here. I am simply suggesting that timing the stock market is not as simple as some people claim it is. Once the smoke is clear, the lack of smoke is priced into stocks. Maybe you interpreted this to be in reference to the housing market. In that case I would agree with you. But with stocks, the markets swing too quickly to time as well as real estate. I would rather stick to my asset allocations and add to certain positions on weakness. Perhaps I am not nearly as smart as others on this board.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

No knife-catching here. I am simply suggesting that timing the stock market is not as simple as some people claim it is. Once the smoke is clear, the lack of smoke is priced into stocks. Maybe you interpreted this to be in reference to the housing market. In that case I would agree with you. But with stocks, the markets swing too quickly to time as well as real estate. I would rather stick to my asset allocations and add to certain positions on weakness. Perhaps I am not nearly as smart as others on this board.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

No knife-catching here. I am simply suggesting that timing the stock market is not as simple as some people claim it is. Once the smoke is clear, the lack of smoke is priced into stocks. Maybe you interpreted this to be in reference to the housing market. In that case I would agree with you. But with stocks, the markets swing too quickly to time as well as real estate. I would rather stick to my asset allocations and add to certain positions on weakness. Perhaps I am not nearly as smart as others on this board.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

No knife-catching here. I am simply suggesting that timing the stock market is not as simple as some people claim it is. Once the smoke is clear, the lack of smoke is priced into stocks. Maybe you interpreted this to be in reference to the housing market. In that case I would agree with you. But with stocks, the markets swing too quickly to time as well as real estate. I would rather stick to my asset allocations and add to certain positions on weakness. Perhaps I am not nearly as smart as others on this board.

[kewp]

In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

[kewp]

In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

[kewp]

In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

[kewp]

In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

Have fun catching that falling knife!

The best time to buy is at the bottom. Thats after the smoke has cleared and there is nothing but cinders left. Heck, you can even wait until some signs of new construction begin to show.

Until the credit mess sorts itself out, I’m staying out of the market other than a few small speculative investments in gold and some short ETF’s.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

I disagree. In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

I disagree. In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

I disagree. In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

I disagree. In retrospect the times to buy have usually been at the points where there was the most smoke.

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Long term the stock market is the place to be. That doesn’t mean however there aren’t entire decades, or in some cases several decades, where its a losing proposition.

Whats your time frame? Mine tends to look out a couple of decades. If you get out of the market now and stay out till we are out of the bear market we’ve entered, you are probably better off. You can always re-enter when the smoke clears. It will be pretty obvious, as banks will stop failing, interest rates will return to more historic norms and unemployment will be abating.

Josh

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be. There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward. All these theories about why what has always been but will never be again are odd. Why is it that people cannot accept that things are going to be ok?

This theory is based on no facts at all and flies in the face of a over 100 year record of rising prices. Bad news and scare tactics sells tickets, but won’t make you any money. This dip we are experiencing is a buying opportunity, not right here exactly, but very soon.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be. There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward. All these theories about why what has always been but will never be again are odd. Why is it that people cannot accept that things are going to be ok?

This theory is based on no facts at all and flies in the face of a over 100 year record of rising prices. Bad news and scare tactics sells tickets, but won’t make you any money. This dip we are experiencing is a buying opportunity, not right here exactly, but very soon.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be. There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward. All these theories about why what has always been but will never be again are odd. Why is it that people cannot accept that things are going to be ok?

This theory is based on no facts at all and flies in the face of a over 100 year record of rising prices. Bad news and scare tactics sells tickets, but won’t make you any money. This dip we are experiencing is a buying opportunity, not right here exactly, but very soon.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

The best place by far to have had ones money invested since 1900 has been the stock market and it will continue to be. There will be bear markets along the way but the path will be ever upward. All these theories about why what has always been but will never be again are odd. Why is it that people cannot accept that things are going to be ok?

This theory is based on no facts at all and flies in the face of a over 100 year record of rising prices. Bad news and scare tactics sells tickets, but won’t make you any money. This dip we are experiencing is a buying opportunity, not right here exactly, but very soon.

[Mean Reversion]

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

To cite an extreme example and make a point. During the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in Germany 1923, if you would have loaned out money for someone to buy a car before the hyperinflation, when he later paid you back, those same Marks would only buy you a carton of eggs.

[Mean Reversion]

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

To cite an extreme example and make a point. During the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in Germany 1923, if you would have loaned out money for someone to buy a car before the hyperinflation, when he later paid you back, those same Marks would only buy you a carton of eggs.

[Mean Reversion]

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

To cite an extreme example and make a point. During the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in Germany 1923, if you would have loaned out money for someone to buy a car before the hyperinflation, when he later paid you back, those same Marks would only buy you a carton of eggs.

[Mean Reversion]

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

It will be paid in full. But the value may not be the same.

To cite an extreme example and make a point. During the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic in Germany 1923, if you would have loaned out money for someone to buy a car before the hyperinflation, when he later paid you back, those same Marks would only buy you a carton of eggs.

[Sandi Egan]

Mean,

I agree that the govt is trying to outprint the deflation. I don’t think that’s possible, though: if they print enough to stop the deflation, the people will not be able to buy food with their current incomes. There is just to much debt to cover, IMO.
And boomers – with their fixed incomes – will be hit the most by the inflationary policy.

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

[Sandi Egan]

Mean,

I agree that the govt is trying to outprint the deflation. I don’t think that’s possible, though: if they print enough to stop the deflation, the people will not be able to buy food with their current incomes. There is just to much debt to cover, IMO.
And boomers – with their fixed incomes – will be hit the most by the inflationary policy.

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

[Sandi Egan]

Mean,

I agree that the govt is trying to outprint the deflation. I don’t think that’s possible, though: if they print enough to stop the deflation, the people will not be able to buy food with their current incomes. There is just to much debt to cover, IMO.
And boomers – with their fixed incomes – will be hit the most by the inflationary policy.

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

[Sandi Egan]

Mean,

I agree that the govt is trying to outprint the deflation. I don’t think that’s possible, though: if they print enough to stop the deflation, the people will not be able to buy food with their current incomes. There is just to much debt to cover, IMO.
And boomers – with their fixed incomes – will be hit the most by the inflationary policy.

Either way, I don’t believe it’s possible to escape debt. One way or another it will be paid in full. The question is, who is going to pay it.

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[TheBreeze]

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

Good point. Wall Street still seems to be clueless about the cause of the downturn/crash in housing. Most of the guys I see on CNBC are focussed on interest rates when the real problem is mispriced assets. The price of houses became way too high due to all the 100% loans to unqualified people. Now, prices have to come down.

I’m still doing periodic investments into the market. I expect the next few years to be painful. Hopefully I’ll be able to rid out the upcoming market armegeddon.

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[Anonymous]

Contraman, interesting idea, but do you have any numbers to back this up? (e.g., what percentage of equity value is purchased through 401k’s per income bracket)

My gut feeling is that if all of the people in, say, the lower half of median income cash in their 401k’s tomorrow it won’t have a big effect on the market.

But I am just guessing…

[Anonymous]

Contraman, interesting idea, but do you have any numbers to back this up? (e.g., what percentage of equity value is purchased through 401k’s per income bracket)

My gut feeling is that if all of the people in, say, the lower half of median income cash in their 401k’s tomorrow it won’t have a big effect on the market.

But I am just guessing…

[Anonymous]

Contraman, interesting idea, but do you have any numbers to back this up? (e.g., what percentage of equity value is purchased through 401k’s per income bracket)

My gut feeling is that if all of the people in, say, the lower half of median income cash in their 401k’s tomorrow it won’t have a big effect on the market.

But I am just guessing…

[Anonymous]

Contraman, interesting idea, but do you have any numbers to back this up? (e.g., what percentage of equity value is purchased through 401k’s per income bracket)

My gut feeling is that if all of the people in, say, the lower half of median income cash in their 401k’s tomorrow it won’t have a big effect on the market.

But I am just guessing…

[peterb]

Interesting theory. A friend of mine that worked on Wall Street during the late 1990’s made the same observation…401K’s had drastically increased the amount of cash into the market since almost all of the contributions are made to mutual funds. I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of this?.
I also remember hearing some people doing the same thing during the last recession of 2002…e.i. withdrawing from their IRA’s to pay bills, etc… According to most financial analysts, people no longer save in the USA because they consider their IRA’s a type of savings account. So it stands to reason that they will take $$ from it in times of need. So the question is, “How much and for how long?”

[peterb]

Interesting theory. A friend of mine that worked on Wall Street during the late 1990’s made the same observation…401K’s had drastically increased the amount of cash into the market since almost all of the contributions are made to mutual funds. I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of this?.
I also remember hearing some people doing the same thing during the last recession of 2002…e.i. withdrawing from their IRA’s to pay bills, etc… According to most financial analysts, people no longer save in the USA because they consider their IRA’s a type of savings account. So it stands to reason that they will take $$ from it in times of need. So the question is, “How much and for how long?”

[peterb]

Interesting theory. A friend of mine that worked on Wall Street during the late 1990’s made the same observation…401K’s had drastically increased the amount of cash into the market since almost all of the contributions are made to mutual funds. I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of this?.
I also remember hearing some people doing the same thing during the last recession of 2002…e.i. withdrawing from their IRA’s to pay bills, etc… According to most financial analysts, people no longer save in the USA because they consider their IRA’s a type of savings account. So it stands to reason that they will take $$ from it in times of need. So the question is, “How much and for how long?”

[peterb]

Interesting theory. A friend of mine that worked on Wall Street during the late 1990’s made the same observation…401K’s had drastically increased the amount of cash into the market since almost all of the contributions are made to mutual funds. I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of this?.
I also remember hearing some people doing the same thing during the last recession of 2002…e.i. withdrawing from their IRA’s to pay bills, etc… According to most financial analysts, people no longer save in the USA because they consider their IRA’s a type of savings account. So it stands to reason that they will take $$ from it in times of need. So the question is, “How much and for how long?”

[peterb]

Interesting theory. A friend of mine that worked on Wall Street during the late 1990’s made the same observation…401K’s had drastically increased the amount of cash into the market since almost all of the contributions are made to mutual funds. I wonder if anyone has done an analysis of this?.
I also remember hearing some people doing the same thing during the last recession of 2002…e.i. withdrawing from their IRA’s to pay bills, etc… According to most financial analysts, people no longer save in the USA because they consider their IRA’s a type of savings account. So it stands to reason that they will take $$ from it in times of need. So the question is, “How much and for how long?”

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

 Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[kewp]

Hmmmm. 8000… That’s going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don’t you?

What would they do about it? You can’t force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn’t mean I’ll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[gandalf]

I think we can all agree the run-up in asset prices these past few years has been partially, if not significantly, due to the effects of loose credit, leverage and financial engineering. As the business cycle turns and we head into a period of economic contraction and credit tightening, the impact on stock market capitalization, among other things, will be decidedly negative.

Personally, I’m anticipating further declines in overall asset values. Given the magnitude of the run-up, a 25% decline in stock market capitalization from this point and another 25% drop in property values isn’t outside the scope of reason. I expect the decline to be expressed through a combination of currency devaluation and outright nominal deflation. Wealth is actively being wiped off the books as we speak.

Overall, I am very concerned about multiplier effects and the collateral damage of de-leveraging on the ‘real economy’ (productive and profitable economic activities). I expect the impacts of the unwinding to be severe, with market failures in certain areas such as construction and credit. I think some regions will be hit harder than others, and I put San Diego in the ‘at-risk’ category due to state, county and municipal financials as well as general over-exposure of its economy to FIRE markets.

[gandalf]

I think we can all agree the run-up in asset prices these past few years has been partially, if not significantly, due to the effects of loose credit, leverage and financial engineering. As the business cycle turns and we head into a period of economic contraction and credit tightening, the impact on stock market capitalization, among other things, will be decidedly negative.

Personally, I’m anticipating further declines in overall asset values. Given the magnitude of the run-up, a 25% decline in stock market capitalization from this point and another 25% drop in property values isn’t outside the scope of reason. I expect the decline to be expressed through a combination of currency devaluation and outright nominal deflation. Wealth is actively being wiped off the books as we speak.

Overall, I am very concerned about multiplier effects and the collateral damage of de-leveraging on the ‘real economy’ (productive and profitable economic activities). I expect the impacts of the unwinding to be severe, with market failures in certain areas such as construction and credit. I think some regions will be hit harder than others, and I put San Diego in the ‘at-risk’ category due to state, county and municipal financials as well as general over-exposure of its economy to FIRE markets.

[gandalf]

I think we can all agree the run-up in asset prices these past few years has been partially, if not significantly, due to the effects of loose credit, leverage and financial engineering. As the business cycle turns and we head into a period of economic contraction and credit tightening, the impact on stock market capitalization, among other things, will be decidedly negative.

Personally, I’m anticipating further declines in overall asset values. Given the magnitude of the run-up, a 25% decline in stock market capitalization from this point and another 25% drop in property values isn’t outside the scope of reason. I expect the decline to be expressed through a combination of currency devaluation and outright nominal deflation. Wealth is actively being wiped off the books as we speak.

Overall, I am very concerned about multiplier effects and the collateral damage of de-leveraging on the ‘real economy’ (productive and profitable economic activities). I expect the impacts of the unwinding to be severe, with market failures in certain areas such as construction and credit. I think some regions will be hit harder than others, and I put San Diego in the ‘at-risk’ category due to state, county and municipal financials as well as general over-exposure of its economy to FIRE markets.

[gandalf]

I think we can all agree the run-up in asset prices these past few years has been partially, if not significantly, due to the effects of loose credit, leverage and financial engineering. As the business cycle turns and we head into a period of economic contraction and credit tightening, the impact on stock market capitalization, among other things, will be decidedly negative.

Personally, I’m anticipating further declines in overall asset values. Given the magnitude of the run-up, a 25% decline in stock market capitalization from this point and another 25% drop in property values isn’t outside the scope of reason. I expect the decline to be expressed through a combination of currency devaluation and outright nominal deflation. Wealth is actively being wiped off the books as we speak.

Overall, I am very concerned about multiplier effects and the collateral damage of de-leveraging on the ‘real economy’ (productive and profitable economic activities). I expect the impacts of the unwinding to be severe, with market failures in certain areas such as construction and credit. I think some regions will be hit harder than others, and I put San Diego in the ‘at-risk’ category due to state, county and municipal financials as well as general over-exposure of its economy to FIRE markets.

[gandalf]

I think we can all agree the run-up in asset prices these past few years has been partially, if not significantly, due to the effects of loose credit, leverage and financial engineering. As the business cycle turns and we head into a period of economic contraction and credit tightening, the impact on stock market capitalization, among other things, will be decidedly negative.

Personally, I’m anticipating further declines in overall asset values. Given the magnitude of the run-up, a 25% decline in stock market capitalization from this point and another 25% drop in property values isn’t outside the scope of reason. I expect the decline to be expressed through a combination of currency devaluation and outright nominal deflation. Wealth is actively being wiped off the books as we speak.

Overall, I am very concerned about multiplier effects and the collateral damage of de-leveraging on the ‘real economy’ (productive and profitable economic activities). I expect the impacts of the unwinding to be severe, with market failures in certain areas such as construction and credit. I think some regions will be hit harder than others, and I put San Diego in the ‘at-risk’ category due to state, county and municipal financials as well as general over-exposure of its economy to FIRE markets.

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[kewp]

Hmmmm. 8000… That’s going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don’t you?

What would they do about it? You can’t force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn’t mean I’ll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

[kewp]

Hmmmm. 8000… That’s going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don’t you?

What would they do about it? You can’t force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn’t mean I’ll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

[kewp]

Hmmmm. 8000… That’s going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don’t you?

What would they do about it? You can’t force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn’t mean I’ll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

[kewp]

Hmmmm. 8000… That’s going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don’t you?

What would they do about it? You can’t force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn’t mean I’ll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

 Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

 Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

 Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

 Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Surprised no one's commenting on today's market yet :).

Still think the gov is going to let things go down to 8000?

The gov would trash everything else to prop up the stock market. And yes, there are plenty more irrationale things it *can* do if it *had* to.

Consider something this irrationale. What would happen if the gov all the sudden decide to say for the next 4 years, all capital gains from stock market are completely tax free? Wouldn't this be enough incentive for you to enter the markets again?

Gov will do whatever it takes to restore confidence in the markets if things get that bad, even adopting extreme measures, which would make today's gov irrationale policies look like child's play.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.

Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.

* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

A more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.

http://www.stein-demuth.com/market/1pe_ratio.htm

[Arty]

Is it true that S&P 500 P/E is actually around 7 to 8 if you count from 1930…?

[Arty]

Is it true that S&P 500 P/E is actually around 7 to 8 if you count from 1930…?

[Arty]

Is it true that S&P 500 P/E is actually around 7 to 8 if you count from 1930…?

[Arty]

Is it true that S&P 500 P/E is actually around 7 to 8 if you count from 1930…?

[Arty]

Is it true that S&P 500 P/E is actually around 7 to 8 if you count from 1930…?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

A more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.

http://www.stein-demuth.com/market/1pe_ratio.htm

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

A more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.

http://www.stein-demuth.com/market/1pe_ratio.htm

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

A more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.

http://www.stein-demuth.com/market/1pe_ratio.htm

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

A more contemporary S&P 500 P/E chart.

http://www.stein-demuth.com/market/1pe_ratio.htm

[drunkle]

the fed’s action today wasn’t because everything’s peachy and it’s a great time to buy. i think the fed has been communicating for the past month that now is the time to get the hell out of dodge.

it is a loan, a huge loan backed by junk mortgages. it’s a step towards nationalization or debt forgiveness. it’s not going to be good for stocks either way; share holders will get raped in order to save the bank and depositors. stiff regulations will be put into place to prevent reckless credit (again). jobs will diminish from the lack of credit. consumers are tanked and so is growth.

this current run up starting around 2003 was driven by what? credit. the housing boom which is now a bust. we are actually in a deflationary period, at least in terms of equities because of the massive amount of credit that was floated. that hedge fund that bet and won on subprime failure? they still went belly up because they were holding a lot of “good” debt that went south. margin calls, ie., contraction of credit is deflating equities and it’s far from over; it’ll be over when the fed/us govt nationalizes or forgives the debt.

why buy every dip? why not buy every other dip or every third dip? why buy now? what’s the difference between buying now and buying in the future in terms of “market timing”? isn’t the motive for buying now, buying the dips predicated on hopes that it’s a good *time* to buy?

if you’re afraid of losing your job, afraid that the economy will tank big time, hedging by investing in inverse funds or shorting the market is surely a good play. if your bets lose, presumably that means you still have a job and can make more money. if you win, you may or may not lose your job, but at least you’ll have some float.

[drunkle]

the fed’s action today wasn’t because everything’s peachy and it’s a great time to buy. i think the fed has been communicating for the past month that now is the time to get the hell out of dodge.

it is a loan, a huge loan backed by junk mortgages. it’s a step towards nationalization or debt forgiveness. it’s not going to be good for stocks either way; share holders will get raped in order to save the bank and depositors. stiff regulations will be put into place to prevent reckless credit (again). jobs will diminish from the lack of credit. consumers are tanked and so is growth.

this current run up starting around 2003 was driven by what? credit. the housing boom which is now a bust. we are actually in a deflationary period, at least in terms of equities because of the massive amount of credit that was floated. that hedge fund that bet and won on subprime failure? they still went belly up because they were holding a lot of “good” debt that went south. margin calls, ie., contraction of credit is deflating equities and it’s far from over; it’ll be over when the fed/us govt nationalizes or forgives the debt.

why buy every dip? why not buy every other dip or every third dip? why buy now? what’s the difference between buying now and buying in the future in terms of “market timing”? isn’t the motive for buying now, buying the dips predicated on hopes that it’s a good *time* to buy?

if you’re afraid of losing your job, afraid that the economy will tank big time, hedging by investing in inverse funds or shorting the market is surely a good play. if your bets lose, presumably that means you still have a job and can make more money. if you win, you may or may not lose your job, but at least you’ll have some float.

[drunkle]

the fed’s action today wasn’t because everything’s peachy and it’s a great time to buy. i think the fed has been communicating for the past month that now is the time to get the hell out of dodge.

it is a loan, a huge loan backed by junk mortgages. it’s a step towards nationalization or debt forgiveness. it’s not going to be good for stocks either way; share holders will get raped in order to save the bank and depositors. stiff regulations will be put into place to prevent reckless credit (again). jobs will diminish from the lack of credit. consumers are tanked and so is growth.

this current run up starting around 2003 was driven by what? credit. the housing boom which is now a bust. we are actually in a deflationary period, at least in terms of equities because of the massive amount of credit that was floated. that hedge fund that bet and won on subprime failure? they still went belly up because they were holding a lot of “good” debt that went south. margin calls, ie., contraction of credit is deflating equities and it’s far from over; it’ll be over when the fed/us govt nationalizes or forgives the debt.

why buy every dip? why not buy every other dip or every third dip? why buy now? what’s the difference between buying now and buying in the future in terms of “market timing”? isn’t the motive for buying now, buying the dips predicated on hopes that it’s a good *time* to buy?

if you’re afraid of losing your job, afraid that the economy will tank big time, hedging by investing in inverse funds or shorting the market is surely a good play. if your bets lose, presumably that means you still have a job and can make more money. if you win, you may or may not lose your job, but at least you’ll have some float.

[drunkle]

the fed’s action today wasn’t because everything’s peachy and it’s a great time to buy. i think the fed has been communicating for the past month that now is the time to get the hell out of dodge.

it is a loan, a huge loan backed by junk mortgages. it’s a step towards nationalization or debt forgiveness. it’s not going to be good for stocks either way; share holders will get raped in order to save the bank and depositors. stiff regulations will be put into place to prevent reckless credit (again). jobs will diminish from the lack of credit. consumers are tanked and so is growth.

this current run up starting around 2003 was driven by what? credit. the housing boom which is now a bust. we are actually in a deflationary period, at least in terms of equities because of the massive amount of credit that was floated. that hedge fund that bet and won on subprime failure? they still went belly up because they were holding a lot of “good” debt that went south. margin calls, ie., contraction of credit is deflating equities and it’s far from over; it’ll be over when the fed/us govt nationalizes or forgives the debt.

why buy every dip? why not buy every other dip or every third dip? why buy now? what’s the difference between buying now and buying in the future in terms of “market timing”? isn’t the motive for buying now, buying the dips predicated on hopes that it’s a good *time* to buy?

if you’re afraid of losing your job, afraid that the economy will tank big time, hedging by investing in inverse funds or shorting the market is surely a good play. if your bets lose, presumably that means you still have a job and can make more money. if you win, you may or may not lose your job, but at least you’ll have some float.

[drunkle]

the fed’s action today wasn’t because everything’s peachy and it’s a great time to buy. i think the fed has been communicating for the past month that now is the time to get the hell out of dodge.

it is a loan, a huge loan backed by junk mortgages. it’s a step towards nationalization or debt forgiveness. it’s not going to be good for stocks either way; share holders will get raped in order to save the bank and depositors. stiff regulations will be put into place to prevent reckless credit (again). jobs will diminish from the lack of credit. consumers are tanked and so is growth.

this current run up starting around 2003 was driven by what? credit. the housing boom which is now a bust. we are actually in a deflationary period, at least in terms of equities because of the massive amount of credit that was floated. that hedge fund that bet and won on subprime failure? they still went belly up because they were holding a lot of “good” debt that went south. margin calls, ie., contraction of credit is deflating equities and it’s far from over; it’ll be over when the fed/us govt nationalizes or forgives the debt.

why buy every dip? why not buy every other dip or every third dip? why buy now? what’s the difference between buying now and buying in the future in terms of “market timing”? isn’t the motive for buying now, buying the dips predicated on hopes that it’s a good *time* to buy?

if you’re afraid of losing your job, afraid that the economy will tank big time, hedging by investing in inverse funds or shorting the market is surely a good play. if your bets lose, presumably that means you still have a job and can make more money. if you win, you may or may not lose your job, but at least you’ll have some float.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.

Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.

* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.

Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.

* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.

Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.

* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I’m confused as to where the notion came from that stocks are currently in a speculative bubble. Stocks may fall some more. But, (unlike the housing market in Southern California and elsewhere), fundamental valuations are not currently high by historic standards.

Current estimates for 2008 P/E for S&P 500 is 15.3 at current index levels. Heck, even based on Shiller’s long-term median P/E for the S&P 500 of 15.7* we are slightly below the long term median for S&P 500 valuation. Stocks are not in a valuation bubble.

* as noted here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp

[contraman]

Lazy Union,

A few days ago I started this post and you responded by stating that people going to the 401K is not happening or will happen in a dramatic fashion.

If you look at the front page of the US TODAY and the front page of MSN.COM, it appears they think differently.

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

Sincerely, Contraman

[patb]

The Dow was at 8000 in 1998 before Greenspan started the Bubble.

It was at 8000 after the Tech Bubble.

It should return to 8000 after the Housing Bubble.

It may drop below but until then, it’s nothing but knives.

[patb]

The Dow was at 8000 in 1998 before Greenspan started the Bubble.

It was at 8000 after the Tech Bubble.

It should return to 8000 after the Housing Bubble.

It may drop below but until then, it’s nothing but knives.

[patb]

The Dow was at 8000 in 1998 before Greenspan started the Bubble.

It was at 8000 after the Tech Bubble.

It should return to 8000 after the Housing Bubble.

It may drop below but until then, it’s nothing but knives.

[patb]

The Dow was at 8000 in 1998 before Greenspan started the Bubble.

It was at 8000 after the Tech Bubble.

It should return to 8000 after the Housing Bubble.

It may drop below but until then, it’s nothing but knives.

[patb]

The Dow was at 8000 in 1998 before Greenspan started the Bubble.

It was at 8000 after the Tech Bubble.

It should return to 8000 after the Housing Bubble.

It may drop below but until then, it’s nothing but knives.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.

That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.

[gandalf]

Well, I respectfully disagree with the P/E acolytes.

Corporate earnings growth of late has been affected in no small measure by over-reaching and expansive consumption, major assist from loose lending. A good portion of earnings growth tracks back to leverage. The gains are not entirely ‘real’. They are not strictly the result of technological innovation, increases in labor or productivity or the discovery of resources. More likely, they are substantially connected to the current credit situation.

IMHO, the effects of credit and leverage on equities markets have been largely understated to date. The consumer economy is driven by credit and has clearly reached a peak. Detroit is a mess. Durables are in trouble. Retail is tanking. All this was before the run up in prices for energy and commodities, which will further depress consumption. Don’t forget to factor in ‘innovations’ in financial engineering (e.g. stupid Excel tricks) from the accounting and finance industries and Fortune 500 Budget/Finance Divisions…

Look for a combination of currency devaluation and outright deflation of asset values over the next few years, including in the markets for equities. Maybe we reach a nominal floor at some point, supported by foreign investment, after currency devaluation transforms our economy into a freakin’ yard sale.

And I am most concerned about collateral damage from the unwinding process, negative impacts on the ‘real’ economy. There is plenty of viable, profit-making, goods and services producing work and industry out there, and it depends on functional financial markets. I’m concerned that it’s going to take a fairly severe hit as a result of the shenanigans of the past decade. (Great job, Boomers, Greenspan. Hope you had a good party. Thanks for trashing the place. Now get the hell out.)

[gandalf]

Well, I respectfully disagree with the P/E acolytes.

Corporate earnings growth of late has been affected in no small measure by over-reaching and expansive consumption, major assist from loose lending. A good portion of earnings growth tracks back to leverage. The gains are not entirely ‘real’. They are not strictly the result of technological innovation, increases in labor or productivity or the discovery of resources. More likely, they are substantially connected to the current credit situation.

IMHO, the effects of credit and leverage on equities markets have been largely understated to date. The consumer economy is driven by credit and has clearly reached a peak. Detroit is a mess. Durables are in trouble. Retail is tanking. All this was before the run up in prices for energy and commodities, which will further depress consumption. Don’t forget to factor in ‘innovations’ in financial engineering (e.g. stupid Excel tricks) from the accounting and finance industries and Fortune 500 Budget/Finance Divisions…

Look for a combination of currency devaluation and outright deflation of asset values over the next few years, including in the markets for equities. Maybe we reach a nominal floor at some point, supported by foreign investment, after currency devaluation transforms our economy into a freakin’ yard sale.

And I am most concerned about collateral damage from the unwinding process, negative impacts on the ‘real’ economy. There is plenty of viable, profit-making, goods and services producing work and industry out there, and it depends on functional financial markets. I’m concerned that it’s going to take a fairly severe hit as a result of the shenanigans of the past decade. (Great job, Boomers, Greenspan. Hope you had a good party. Thanks for trashing the place. Now get the hell out.)

[gandalf]

Well, I respectfully disagree with the P/E acolytes.

Corporate earnings growth of late has been affected in no small measure by over-reaching and expansive consumption, major assist from loose lending. A good portion of earnings growth tracks back to leverage. The gains are not entirely ‘real’. They are not strictly the result of technological innovation, increases in labor or productivity or the discovery of resources. More likely, they are substantially connected to the current credit situation.

IMHO, the effects of credit and leverage on equities markets have been largely understated to date. The consumer economy is driven by credit and has clearly reached a peak. Detroit is a mess. Durables are in trouble. Retail is tanking. All this was before the run up in prices for energy and commodities, which will further depress consumption. Don’t forget to factor in ‘innovations’ in financial engineering (e.g. stupid Excel tricks) from the accounting and finance industries and Fortune 500 Budget/Finance Divisions…

Look for a combination of currency devaluation and outright deflation of asset values over the next few years, including in the markets for equities. Maybe we reach a nominal floor at some point, supported by foreign investment, after currency devaluation transforms our economy into a freakin’ yard sale.

And I am most concerned about collateral damage from the unwinding process, negative impacts on the ‘real’ economy. There is plenty of viable, profit-making, goods and services producing work and industry out there, and it depends on functional financial markets. I’m concerned that it’s going to take a fairly severe hit as a result of the shenanigans of the past decade. (Great job, Boomers, Greenspan. Hope you had a good party. Thanks for trashing the place. Now get the hell out.)

[gandalf]

Well, I respectfully disagree with the P/E acolytes.

Corporate earnings growth of late has been affected in no small measure by over-reaching and expansive consumption, major assist from loose lending. A good portion of earnings growth tracks back to leverage. The gains are not entirely ‘real’. They are not strictly the result of technological innovation, increases in labor or productivity or the discovery of resources. More likely, they are substantially connected to the current credit situation.

IMHO, the effects of credit and leverage on equities markets have been largely understated to date. The consumer economy is driven by credit and has clearly reached a peak. Detroit is a mess. Durables are in trouble. Retail is tanking. All this was before the run up in prices for energy and commodities, which will further depress consumption. Don’t forget to factor in ‘innovations’ in financial engineering (e.g. stupid Excel tricks) from the accounting and finance industries and Fortune 500 Budget/Finance Divisions…

Look for a combination of currency devaluation and outright deflation of asset values over the next few years, including in the markets for equities. Maybe we reach a nominal floor at some point, supported by foreign investment, after currency devaluation transforms our economy into a freakin’ yard sale.

And I am most concerned about collateral damage from the unwinding process, negative impacts on the ‘real’ economy. There is plenty of viable, profit-making, goods and services producing work and industry out there, and it depends on functional financial markets. I’m concerned that it’s going to take a fairly severe hit as a result of the shenanigans of the past decade. (Great job, Boomers, Greenspan. Hope you had a good party. Thanks for trashing the place. Now get the hell out.)

[gandalf]

Well, I respectfully disagree with the P/E acolytes.

Corporate earnings growth of late has been affected in no small measure by over-reaching and expansive consumption, major assist from loose lending. A good portion of earnings growth tracks back to leverage. The gains are not entirely ‘real’. They are not strictly the result of technological innovation, increases in labor or productivity or the discovery of resources. More likely, they are substantially connected to the current credit situation.

IMHO, the effects of credit and leverage on equities markets have been largely understated to date. The consumer economy is driven by credit and has clearly reached a peak. Detroit is a mess. Durables are in trouble. Retail is tanking. All this was before the run up in prices for energy and commodities, which will further depress consumption. Don’t forget to factor in ‘innovations’ in financial engineering (e.g. stupid Excel tricks) from the accounting and finance industries and Fortune 500 Budget/Finance Divisions…

Look for a combination of currency devaluation and outright deflation of asset values over the next few years, including in the markets for equities. Maybe we reach a nominal floor at some point, supported by foreign investment, after currency devaluation transforms our economy into a freakin’ yard sale.

And I am most concerned about collateral damage from the unwinding process, negative impacts on the ‘real’ economy. There is plenty of viable, profit-making, goods and services producing work and industry out there, and it depends on functional financial markets. I’m concerned that it’s going to take a fairly severe hit as a result of the shenanigans of the past decade. (Great job, Boomers, Greenspan. Hope you had a good party. Thanks for trashing the place. Now get the hell out.)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.

That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.

That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.

That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

That was me. I am going by Mr. Uber-Housing Bear (Shiller’s) definition of long-term valuation. By Shiller’s measure stocks are not overvalued, relative to fundamentals (earnings). Stocks are not in the same speculative bubble that real estate was in 2005 or that stocks were in 200. Not by a long shot.

That does not mean that stocks will not decline when earnings decline. When earnings decline, stocks should decline as well, based on fundamentals.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Maybe it’s just me, but I find it odd that someone with a pseudonym containing the term “contra” is citing the USA Today, MSN.com as well as comments from Warren Buffett to support their position.

As for Warren Buffett. I agree that he is an investment genius. But his batting average is not 1.000.

[sdnerd]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

”
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
”

…

”
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.
“

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[sdnerd]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

”
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
”

…

”
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.
“

[sdnerd]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

”
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
”

…

”
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.
“

[sdnerd]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

”
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
”

…

”
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.
“

[sdnerd]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

”
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
”

…

”
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.
“

[contraman]

FSD,

I mentioned this before the papers. Go look at the first post on this subject. What is wrong with a nick name such as “contraman”. My friends call me that because I am a contrarian in nature….don’t give yourself and your habits away here….ha ha.

Sincerely, Contraman

[blackbox]

Dude, they should change your name to herdman. Because you are now following the herd. Sell when the market is going down down. haha, that is so nutty. I bought the last few days, and will continue to buy on big down days, and a couple of decades from now it will be CHA-CHING!
By the way, I hope you are right on dow 8000 soon, but dude be a real contrarian, and say the market is going up big on big down days! That would make you legit. Getting gold on at all time highs is like following the herd. Shorting on big down days is like being one of the cows waiting to be slaughtered. Like today!
Now, I would say, if you wanted to get rid of a pos in the last couple of weeks, this might be a good time to sell it all or a small part of it. later gator

[blackbox]

Dude, they should change your name to herdman. Because you are now following the herd. Sell when the market is going down down. haha, that is so nutty. I bought the last few days, and will continue to buy on big down days, and a couple of decades from now it will be CHA-CHING!
By the way, I hope you are right on dow 8000 soon, but dude be a real contrarian, and say the market is going up big on big down days! That would make you legit. Getting gold on at all time highs is like following the herd. Shorting on big down days is like being one of the cows waiting to be slaughtered. Like today!
Now, I would say, if you wanted to get rid of a pos in the last couple of weeks, this might be a good time to sell it all or a small part of it. later gator

[blackbox]

Dude, they should change your name to herdman. Because you are now following the herd. Sell when the market is going down down. haha, that is so nutty. I bought the last few days, and will continue to buy on big down days, and a couple of decades from now it will be CHA-CHING!
By the way, I hope you are right on dow 8000 soon, but dude be a real contrarian, and say the market is going up big on big down days! That would make you legit. Getting gold on at all time highs is like following the herd. Shorting on big down days is like being one of the cows waiting to be slaughtered. Like today!
Now, I would say, if you wanted to get rid of a pos in the last couple of weeks, this might be a good time to sell it all or a small part of it. later gator

[blackbox]

Dude, they should change your name to herdman. Because you are now following the herd. Sell when the market is going down down. haha, that is so nutty. I bought the last few days, and will continue to buy on big down days, and a couple of decades from now it will be CHA-CHING!
By the way, I hope you are right on dow 8000 soon, but dude be a real contrarian, and say the market is going up big on big down days! That would make you legit. Getting gold on at all time highs is like following the herd. Shorting on big down days is like being one of the cows waiting to be slaughtered. Like today!
Now, I would say, if you wanted to get rid of a pos in the last couple of weeks, this might be a good time to sell it all or a small part of it. later gator

[blackbox]

Dude, they should change your name to herdman. Because you are now following the herd. Sell when the market is going down down. haha, that is so nutty. I bought the last few days, and will continue to buy on big down days, and a couple of decades from now it will be CHA-CHING!
By the way, I hope you are right on dow 8000 soon, but dude be a real contrarian, and say the market is going up big on big down days! That would make you legit. Getting gold on at all time highs is like following the herd. Shorting on big down days is like being one of the cows waiting to be slaughtered. Like today!
Now, I would say, if you wanted to get rid of a pos in the last couple of weeks, this might be a good time to sell it all or a small part of it. later gator

[contraman]

FSD,

I mentioned this before the papers. Go look at the first post on this subject. What is wrong with a nick name such as “contraman”. My friends call me that because I am a contrarian in nature….don’t give yourself and your habits away here….ha ha.

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

FSD,

I mentioned this before the papers. Go look at the first post on this subject. What is wrong with a nick name such as “contraman”. My friends call me that because I am a contrarian in nature….don’t give yourself and your habits away here….ha ha.

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

FSD,

I mentioned this before the papers. Go look at the first post on this subject. What is wrong with a nick name such as “contraman”. My friends call me that because I am a contrarian in nature….don’t give yourself and your habits away here….ha ha.

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

FSD,

I mentioned this before the papers. Go look at the first post on this subject. What is wrong with a nick name such as “contraman”. My friends call me that because I am a contrarian in nature….don’t give yourself and your habits away here….ha ha.

Sincerely, Contraman

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Maybe it’s just me, but I find it odd that someone with a pseudonym containing the term “contra” is citing the USA Today, MSN.com as well as comments from Warren Buffett to support their position.

As for Warren Buffett. I agree that he is an investment genius. But his batting average is not 1.000.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Maybe it’s just me, but I find it odd that someone with a pseudonym containing the term “contra” is citing the USA Today, MSN.com as well as comments from Warren Buffett to support their position.

As for Warren Buffett. I agree that he is an investment genius. But his batting average is not 1.000.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Maybe it’s just me, but I find it odd that someone with a pseudonym containing the term “contra” is citing the USA Today, MSN.com as well as comments from Warren Buffett to support their position.

As for Warren Buffett. I agree that he is an investment genius. But his batting average is not 1.000.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Maybe it’s just me, but I find it odd that someone with a pseudonym containing the term “contra” is citing the USA Today, MSN.com as well as comments from Warren Buffett to support their position.

As for Warren Buffett. I agree that he is an investment genius. But his batting average is not 1.000.

[contraman]

Lazy Union,

A few days ago I started this post and you responded by stating that people going to the 401K is not happening or will happen in a dramatic fashion.

If you look at the front page of the US TODAY and the front page of MSN.COM, it appears they think differently.

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Lazy Union,

A few days ago I started this post and you responded by stating that people going to the 401K is not happening or will happen in a dramatic fashion.

If you look at the front page of the US TODAY and the front page of MSN.COM, it appears they think differently.

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Lazy Union,

A few days ago I started this post and you responded by stating that people going to the 401K is not happening or will happen in a dramatic fashion.

If you look at the front page of the US TODAY and the front page of MSN.COM, it appears they think differently.

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Lazy Union,

A few days ago I started this post and you responded by stating that people going to the 401K is not happening or will happen in a dramatic fashion.

If you look at the front page of the US TODAY and the front page of MSN.COM, it appears they think differently.

Second, someone made a remark about stock market valuations not being too high? I guess when Warren Buffet made a statement last week that stocks are over valued at these levels and he is buying very little, he must have been wrong. I mean look a the guy’s track record….

Sincerely, Contraman

[kewp]

Surprised no one’s commenting on today’s market yet :).

It’s a fools rally based on the Fed’s last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can’t imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[kewp]

Surprised no one’s commenting on today’s market yet :).

It’s a fools rally based on the Fed’s last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can’t imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

[kewp]

Surprised no one’s commenting on today’s market yet :).

It’s a fools rally based on the Fed’s last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can’t imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

[kewp]

Surprised no one’s commenting on today’s market yet :).

It’s a fools rally based on the Fed’s last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can’t imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

[kewp]

Surprised no one’s commenting on today’s market yet :).

It’s a fools rally based on the Fed’s last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can’t imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

[Coronita]

Surprised no one's commenting on today's market yet :).

Still think the gov is going to let things go down to 8000?

The gov would trash everything else to prop up the stock market. And yes, there are plenty more irrationale things it *can* do if it *had* to.

Consider something this irrationale. What would happen if the gov all the sudden decide to say for the next 4 years, all capital gains from stock market are completely tax free? Wouldn't this be enough incentive for you to enter the markets again?

Gov will do whatever it takes to restore confidence in the markets if things get that bad, even adopting extreme measures, which would make today's gov irrationale policies look like child's play.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Surprised no one's commenting on today's market yet :).

Still think the gov is going to let things go down to 8000?

The gov would trash everything else to prop up the stock market. And yes, there are plenty more irrationale things it *can* do if it *had* to.

Consider something this irrationale. What would happen if the gov all the sudden decide to say for the next 4 years, all capital gains from stock market are completely tax free? Wouldn't this be enough incentive for you to enter the markets again?

Gov will do whatever it takes to restore confidence in the markets if things get that bad, even adopting extreme measures, which would make today's gov irrationale policies look like child's play.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Surprised no one's commenting on today's market yet :).

Still think the gov is going to let things go down to 8000?

The gov would trash everything else to prop up the stock market. And yes, there are plenty more irrationale things it *can* do if it *had* to.

Consider something this irrationale. What would happen if the gov all the sudden decide to say for the next 4 years, all capital gains from stock market are completely tax free? Wouldn't this be enough incentive for you to enter the markets again?

Gov will do whatever it takes to restore confidence in the markets if things get that bad, even adopting extreme measures, which would make today's gov irrationale policies look like child's play.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Surprised no one's commenting on today's market yet :).

Still think the gov is going to let things go down to 8000?

The gov would trash everything else to prop up the stock market. And yes, there are plenty more irrationale things it *can* do if it *had* to.

Consider something this irrationale. What would happen if the gov all the sudden decide to say for the next 4 years, all capital gains from stock market are completely tax free? Wouldn't this be enough incentive for you to enter the markets again?

Gov will do whatever it takes to restore confidence in the markets if things get that bad, even adopting extreme measures, which would make today's gov irrationale policies look like child's play.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Author]

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