Why the Stock Market will continue to fall…

[blackbox]

I hope the market goes down for as long as you said it might, but I doubt it. I would love to be investing half of my income in a down or flat market. That would be fantastic!

Dollar cost average the hell of the market right now!
Hold your nose, and invest aggresively thoughout the year for years to come.

If you have a decade of two before you retire….

Long down markets the best time to invest if you don’t look at your portfolio much. Just max out your 401K, max out your roth IRA if you qualify, and max out your HSA account if you qualify also. Put it on automatic up until 5 years before you plan to retire…….
Save and invest every month with your non-retirement accounts, but remember keep liquid 6 months to 2 years living expenses in a bank money market fund. The rest you can invest in a tax free muni fund, or some low cost mutual funds that are tax efficient.

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[contraman]

Everyone,

I do not have any numbers here, but am seeing this as a trend with alot of people across all classes. I expect it to continue as things worsen over the next year. If anyone has any numbers, it would be interesting to see the theoretical vs. real effects it could have on the equity markets.

One thing that needs to be understood is that alot of our opinions and predications on this site are based upon our “frames of reference” or the world we live in and the respective lens in which we view the rest of the world.

Back in OCT 2007, I was speaking to my options broker in Cleveland, OH about the mortgage industry and the exposure that the financial institutions still had going forward. He has never heard of an OPTION ARM neg am loan and had no idea of 75% of the products that were made available to people. He only sees through his own 30 yr fixed fully amortized world in Cleveland, OHIO.

He was shocked and couldn’t believe people would even do an INTEREST ONLY LOAN. I told him I wanted to buy puts on WAMU before their earnings in OCT 2007. The price was 35 at the time. His mentor who has been in the business 40 years said I was crazy and bought calls. He lost $80,000 and myself and my broker’s clients (based upon my call and “frame of reference” made alot of money).

The point is I am privy to the mortgage world and the health of people’s finances far more than most people. Trust me guys, things are going to get bad, and alot of people that APPEAR to be doing well, are not…..

I am by no means trying to evangelize negativity but rather what I would classify as reality for alot of people, especially in CA. We are doing a seventh inning stretch in the third inning right now…..

Sincerely, Contraman

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[patb]

the boomers are starting to retire, that’s going to hurt

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[Mean Reversion]

I believe your theory has validity but I have more certainty in another theory: that the government will attempt to inflate us out of this mess.

That is why I want to own a home ASAP (within reason). And why I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market priced higher and higher in years to come.

Sure, if you price the stock market in gold or Euros, then the stock market has been pathetic. But nominally, it looks like it has held up because of asset inflation. Thanks to the government printing money at a pace never before seen.

Ironically, the government can’t can’t let the stock market or housing prices drop in price too drastically exactly because of the reason you stated. Baby boomers are depending on their homes and their stock market 401k assets for retirement.

In essence, the government can outprint and outpace the upcoming 401k withdrawals.

[Author]

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