Why the Stock Market will continue to fall…

[kewp]

Surprised no one’s commenting on today’s market yet :).

It’s a fools rally based on the Fed’s last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can’t imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

For those that hate searching for articles, highlights below. Actually some interesting information.

"
Eighteen percent of workers had loans outstanding from their retirement plans in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Transamerica Life Insurance.

Major retirement plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking loans from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to a JPMorgan Chase analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.
"

…

"
In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they had taken the loans to pay off debts, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.

 

 

1)A sample survey of  a very tiny group of 2000 people seems to be a *slightly* small group to base generalizations to the larger population of 401k holders,especially a survey conducted from a insurance company. Heck, they could have been all Countrywide 401k plan participants, or other financial services sectors who got axed and need to tap 401k plans etc.

2)Borrowing versus selling. When you borrow, you're not selling shares. You're no longer buying additional shares as you pay your own 401k account back, but you're not selling (yet)

3) The broader survey out of 1.3 million people states there was a rise of 7%, which would be consistent with the state of the economy (some people need to borrow), but this isn't a "flood" of selling activity yet.

But seriously, again, if the gov wanted to bailout the markets and start throwing incentives like low cap gains or no cap gains, who wouldn't end up putting money back in the markets. It's not like the fed hasn't lowered cap gains rates before to stimulate the markets. 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's a fools rally based on the Fed's last-ditch efforts to avoid a systemic financial collapse. I can't imagine a more clear sell signal than this.

Free capital gains means I (and others) would just double-down on our shorts. It would crash the market in no time.

Now, double the capital gains on shorts/puts and eliminate it for long positions? That might do something.

 

It's a rally based on emotions, just like the past couple of days of crashes are emotions based as folks try to sort out the credit crunch mess. Expect huge swings either way.  

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[kewp]

Yeah, but the fundamentals are poopy, so down it will ultimately go.

[Author]

Posts