Why the Stock Market will continue to fall…

[kewp]

Hmmmm. 8000… That’s going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don’t you?

What would they do about it? You can’t force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn’t mean I’ll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[socrattt]

Just an interesting thought. Today I had a chance to visit Starbucks in the morning and Bucca di Beppo for dinner. Both places had commented on the fact that there was no one around. It looked like ghost town in Starbucks this morning and the restaurant was even spookier. Granted today is Monday, but I had never seen anything like it. My guess is we are going to really start seeing this consumer spending issue hit home. As the market continues its southward decent, the safe bet will be silver and gold. I urge all of you to research these type of commodities because there is plenty of upside potential here in the near future. My guess is silver has a greater upside potential on the percentage end of things IMHO.

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Hmmmm. 8000… That's going to be pretty hard to swallow. I would think the gov would definitely intervene by then in epic proportions, don't you?

What would they do about it? You can't force people to buy equities. I can imagine the PPT being deployed, but that can only work so much.

Not to mention, most of you employees on this board would be jobless?

How so? If the stock market is a bubble as well the only people that will be losing their job are stockbrokers and fund managers. If my company is doing the same amount of business and its stock falls 50%, it doesn't mean I'll lose my job. It just means the stock was too pricey in the first place.

 

This reminds me of all the hoopla about hedge funds imploding. So what. They can afford it. And for everyone one that implodes there are probably at least two others that were playing an inverse position and making bank. Heck, the greatest hedge fund returns in history were set this year shorting mortgage backed securities.

 

 

Kewp,

If you're saying that indexes are going from say 12000 to 8000, you're looking at a 33% shaving, so oversimplified, if you extend this to your company's earnings/profits/revenue all the sudden shrinking proportionally, companies are going to start cutting a lot of heads or thereof. On the flip side, if you think companies are going to do just fine and have decent earnings, what would be the catylist for stocks that make up those indexes to fall and stay down 33% after the sheer panic of what's going on subsides????Thinking that the markets are going to tank 33% and mysteriously you (an employee of company XYZ) is going to be just fine is wishful thinking, because most of us are not CEO/CFO/etc and could be easily axed to meet some financial number, include director level positions and in some cases vp's.

So like I said, most of you talking about "how much money you made" in your 401k/Roth Ira by getting out of the market or shorting will have more issues to worry about if the 8000 mark is reached. Because if you are on a 401k/Roth, you probably aren't as financially independent as you think such that you can withstand major job hackings….

And yes, Kewp, even you who work for UCSD will have exposure. Because…as some of us private sector folks get laid off, some of you public sector folks will all the sudden be competing for positions with the flood of private sector employees in the labor pool, some of which will probably have more skills,experience, knowledge, and be willing to to work cheaper than you who otherwise enjoy a cushy public sector 8-5 job. And it's only a matter of time before some wise-ass manager above you figures that out and replaces your ass with someone that does higher quality work at a cheaper price.or worse hires two people to replace you, because both of those two laidoff people are cheaper than you…Any significant barrier to entry (such as a security clearance) I *doubt* is something that applies to your particular job at UCSD. And while we *might* end up starting out at a position lower than you, being from the private sector with lots of years of "experience", we've mastered the art of playing politics, deception, passive-aggressiveness,  all the major buzzwords that are prevalent in industry, and even have some relevant experience to backup the bullshit we often shovel around in the private sector…Also, being numbed in the private sector, we're experts at saying one thing and doing the other and backstabbing our fellow coworkers when push comes to shove, if it means our own survival…So folks like you in the public sector that have grown accustom to a cushy, friendly, pseudo-productive environment, won't even know what hit you until it's too late :). Trust me, you don't want that to happen. You're life will be hell.

 

Fortunately, it seems like this time around, the hit mainly will be in the service/retail sector (as it seems like so far) there are still decent engineering positions in the U.S. and good engineers/software junkies are still in pretty high demand (perhaps not as well as before in San Diego). Those folks that will be hurting probably don't have the required skill sets to enter the engineering field(s) to begin with. But when the entire markets takes 33% as you think, I doubt any of us won't be significantly affected.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[patientlywaiting]

When valuation goes poof, the vapor wealth will disappear.

A big portion of the wealth was not based on real corporate earnings but on companies buying out each other using
1) high stock valuation as currency,
2) easy credit/cheap debt/easy money.

To me, this is very similar to the cross-ownership of the Japanese Keiretsus. In America, we just traded stocks in companies back and forth at ever higher prices. Then everyone started trading houses at ever higher prices. As long as there was a great fool, wealth was created.

That can only last as a couple of decades. In the end, only net income derived from real revenues can justify valuation. Warren Buffet understands that very well.

[Author]

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