Why 2022 may see deflation

[gzz]

Will We See Deflation in the Next 12 Months?

This case for actual deflation doesn’t seem strong.

The case for inflation dropping to 2% again is stronger.

There’s just no way new and used cars will both see drastic price increases again, 33% on used.

The big inflationary surge of Covid Ca$h from the feds is largely over too. That will drive down spending and consumer demand, and increase labor supply.

Oil and gas will find it harder to keep rising too, as they’re now at prices that marginal fracking operations make economic sense.

[svelte]

Funny, just 30 seconds ago I was reading about cliff coming in car prices in late 2022…

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/12/22/used-car-price-drop-coming-2022/

Also read today that 70 percent of analysts expect a stock market correction in the next six months.

https://www.bankrate.com/investing/market-mavens-survey-stock-market-correction-december-2021/

You may be on to something.

[sdrealtor]

This post reminds me of what my friends and I referred to as the due factor when we were betting on football. A team that lost or won a few in a row was over due to do the opposite. We all lost a lot of money betting on the due factor

[The-Shoveler]

IMO TPTB seem deathly afraid of any type of downturn,

At first sign I think they will throw the printing presses into high gear followed by shocking amounts of free helicopter money.

Could be wrong but after 2008 there seems to be no stomach for downturns.

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor]This post reminds me of what my friends and I referred to as the due factor when we were betting on football. A team that lost or won a few in a row was over due to do the opposite. We all lost a lot of money betting on the due factor[/quote]

Now that I see it in writing, you are right!

This time is different! Things will go up in value forever! In fact, the rate of increase will go up forever!

I’ll see you all on the moon!

[gzz]

IMO TPTB seem deathly afraid of any type of downturn,

At first sign I think they will throw the printing presses into high gear followed by shocking amounts of free helicopter money.

If you think TPTB are OK with inflation, why has the media been on non-stop inflation scare mode the past year?

I maintain my position that several years of 3-6% inflation would be great, but unfortunately we won’t get it.

Further, the GOP is going to get at least one, probably both houses in November. They will block any further transfers to non-elites, which are potentially inflationary.

Tax cuts for the rich and Fed bond market interventions simply are not inflationary.

[The-Shoveler]

Helicopter money does not seem to be a left or right thing anymore (but each side will complain about it if the other is doing it).

I maintain, in the face of a downturn nothing else seems to matter except to stop it at all costs anymore, TPTB just seem deathly afraid of that possibility. 15 years ago it seemed downturns were just accepted as part of the economic cycle, but now for some reason it seems they cannot be allowed.

[svelte]

[quote=svelte]Funny, just 30 seconds ago I was reading about cliff coming in car prices in late 2022…

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/12/22/used-car-price-drop-coming-2022/
[/quote]

Update: saw the results of a recent study that says the new car chip shortage isn’t going away any time soon.
Here is the latest prediction in production shortfalls due to lack of chips:
2021: 10M
2022: 8M
2023: 4M
2024: 1M
Return to normal in 2025.

If that is true, they there will not be a cliff in car prices in 2022!

[Coronita]

[quote=svelte][quote=svelte]Funny, just 30 seconds ago I was reading about cliff coming in car prices in late 2022…

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/12/22/used-car-price-drop-coming-2022/
[/quote]

Update: saw the results of a recent study that says the new car chip shortage isn’t going away any time soon.
Here is the latest prediction in production shortfalls due to lack of chips:
2021: 10M
2022: 8M
2023: 4M
2024: 1M
Return to normal in 2025.

If that is true, they there will not be a cliff in car prices in 2022![/quote]

A lot of car companies are already reducing the available options that can be ordered with the car. BMW already scrapped a few higher end trims.

It should be clarified by “part shortage” this isn’t your run of the mill mechanical part that’s in short supply. It’s electronics and chips.

There is not really a mechanical parts shortage, especially for manufacturers that use common interchange parts.

The issue is that new cars are built with so much electronics gizmos now, it’s hard to make a car complete without all those bells and whistles…

Common interchange parts have not really gone up in price because there’s so many manufacturers of them.

Maybe it’s time to go back to basics…

Don’t think used car prices are going to fall off the cliff. Maybe it will stabilize but the issue is two folds.

New car parts shortage means that both retail and car rentals can’t get the cars they need. So car rentals are still poaching the pre-owned markets…

Also, for manufacturers like GM and Ford, they are starting to shift their manufacturing strategy and move away from making those bare bone cars that typically car rental companies like to buy (stripped cars). They figured that because of the supply constraint, people are willing to pay for cars more fully optioned and selling less of the bare bone cars they lose money on. Finally…. it took long enough…

[The-Shoveler]

Good News, they are talking about another round of covid helicopter money !! (because of Omicron surge)
FREEEEEEEEE!!

I guess maybe it was because the stock market took a bit of a tumble today so that shook them up a bit (can’t allow that to occur LOL).

[Author]

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