When to get back into market?

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=paramount]I’m out.

I think were headed for a recession – and it will probably be worse than 2008. Probably the recession that should have been allowed to run it’s course in 2008.

No personal discretionary spending – I’m not even going out for pizza tonight like I had planned.[/quote]

is pizza really discretionary? it seems to fall into almost the quasimandatory realm. maybe not a whole pie, perhaps, but living in nyc, a slice. i think even the homeless subsist in large part on pizza.

ever since oggis closed in temecula, though, pizza doesnt really exite me here. spuntinos, is good, i guess. is there a pizza place you love that I’ve missed? Sometimes utopizza, which was coupon driven for a while, but i find th ename kind of embarrassing, and the pizza unamazing.

[spdrun]

We may still have some room to fall, but I would say get in before QE4 starts.

GOP will delay these things before the election since they want Obama to look like a failed President. And all of these three things are very dependent on Congress.

So, looks like we’re in for a ride.

This being said, I don’t really trust Schiff – he called QE4 in August as the Fed was mulling raising rates. He seems like a perma-QE’er.

[moneymaker]

I think I can get out and back in before QE4 and make 5-6%.

[spdrun]

Depends — if it’s a good, proper crash, you could make 50, 100% or much more. Look at the value chart of Ford stock since Dec. 2008.

[moneymaker]

Wow what happened to Ford, I bought them in 2012 made 10% and got out, haven’t looked back since. Did they split a whole bunch of times?

[spdrun]

Nope, just went up then dropped. No splits.

But what I was referring to is F bottoming at sub $1 in Dec. 2008.

[moneymaker]

Ok I was looking at the wrong stock, as usual my timing was a bit off but I still made money. They have dropped by a third in the last year and a half, are you betting on them spdrun? For a company that has been making vehicles a long time they sure have had a lot of problems with the F150 line and spark plugs, maybe they should switch to making more diesels. Before 2004 the spark plugs would blow out of the cylinder heads, then from 2004-2008 the plugs would break in half when trying to remove them.

[spdrun]

No, I was just using an example.

[Myriad]

I guess why it’s important to have enough cash on the side so that when the market drops 10%-20%, you have enough to invest more.
Now that they market is a little cheaper, good to put some money in. Lots of stocks are yielding >=3% – better than leaving it in the bank.

As for recession, doesn’t seem that likely at the moment. The Fed is going to keep rates low until they see real inflation.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/01/duy-so-you-think-recession-is-imminent.html

[paramount]

[quote=Myriad]

As for recession, doesn’t seem that likely at the moment. The Fed is going to keep rates low until they see real inflation.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/01/duy-so-you-think-recession-is-imminent.html%5B/quote%5D

We’ve heard that before:

https://youtu.be/u5A4Gw20dcw

[The-Shoveler]

I am not saying you’er wrong I am just trying to figure out what the trigger would be (for next recession).

Low Oil prices? (I think this is more just the Saudis dumping oil than anything else).

Consumers? (I was out shopping yesterday and the carts were five deep at all the check-out stands and all the stands were open) (out to eat same thing, standing room only).

I am just not seeing the trigger this time.

[spdrun]

Reduced world market for American designed and/or built “stuff” combined with high dollar making it more expensive.

Investors realizing that a lot of tech that they invested in is snake-oil that will never make a profit. You can only have so many fart apps.

Etc. BTW – I’m seeing neither much more or less shopping traffic in NYC than there has been over the past few years.

[paramount]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I am not saying you’er wrong I am just trying to figure out what the trigger would be (for next recession).

Low Oil prices? (I think this is more just the Saudis dumping oil than anything else).

Consumers? (I was out shopping yesterday and the carts were five deep at all the check-out stands and all the stands were open) (out to eat same thing, standing room only).

I am just not seeing the trigger this time.[/quote]

I see the same things, and to be honest I’m not sure. I do see that GDP dropped each quarter in 2015 until we saw 0.6% Q4.

I suspect credit is keeping things going for consumers. I went to Buca di Beppo last night and it was packed.

The auto industry boomed last year IMO because of very easy credit.

[paramount]

[quote=scaredyclassic]

is pizza really discretionary? it seems to fall into almost the quasimandatory realm. maybe not a whole pie, perhaps, but living in nyc, a slice. i think even the homeless subsist in large part on pizza.

ever since oggis closed in temecula, though, pizza doesnt really exite me here. spuntinos, is good, i guess. is there a pizza place you love that I’ve missed? Sometimes utopizza, which was coupon driven for a while, but i find th ename kind of embarrassing, and the pizza unamazing.[/quote]

Good point about pizza. I do like spuntinos although lately we’ve been going to Marcos for the gluten free pizza.

At this point I would probably consider Times Square to be the best pizza in Temecula. I also like Shakeys.

Best pizza chain IMO is: Grimaldi’s Pizza (coal fired).

Nearest one though is El Segundo although I’ve only been to the Vegas locations.

You’re right, screw that: pizza’s back on baby!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=paramount][quote=The-Shoveler]I am not saying you’er wrong I am just trying to figure out what the trigger would be (for next recession).

Low Oil prices? (I think this is more just the Saudis dumping oil than anything else).

Consumers? (I was out shopping yesterday and the carts were five deep at all the check-out stands and all the stands were open) (out to eat same thing, standing room only).

I am just not seeing the trigger this time.[/quote]

I see the same things, and to be honest I’m not sure. I do see that GDP dropped each quarter in 2015 until we saw 0.6% Q4.

I suspect credit is keeping things going for consumers. I went to Buca di Beppo last night and it was packed.

The auto industry boomed last year IMO because of very easy credit.[/quote]

Aren’t you guys both in TV? IMO, TV is a zoo. I believe there is a HUGE “captive audience” of “voracious consumers” there and I can well imagine that it must be hard to find a parking space anywhere.

Low gas prices are certainly helping the TV group consume more as they likely have some of the highest gas expense in CA due to their commutes.

btw, Buca di Beppo provides generous coupons to its e-mail fan base.

I think the auto industry did well in 2015 because leases ruled the day. Almost every ad or promotion I saw online (didn’t matter the make or model) was a lease offer.

[Author]

Posts